Round 25: Doesn’t Matter If you’re Black or White….Or Maroon or Scarlet or Myrtle

As has been outlined many times before, consistency is an increasingly difficult goal in today’s NRL. Hence, many teams experience vast swings in form over just a few weeks. More than ever, for any team with serious intentions of taking home the premiership, it is vital to time your run for early October.

However, this task is far easier said than done. As a result, Round 25 — when you might expect all contending teams to be preparing solidly and teams in the lower part or on the fringe of the top 8 playing at their best — proved to be a more interesting and unpredictable round than many expected. So a wide variety of late-round team types were seen.

Let’s have a closer look at every team and where they currently are in their form cycle…with a bit of help from the King of Pop, Michael Jackson (as opposed to the King of Flop, Bryce Gibbs):

Parramatta, Brisbane and the Tigers are the teams playing nearest to their best at the moment; they are finishing the season with a Wet Sail (or, as Wacko Jacko might say, “Don’t Stop Til You Get Enough”).

Parramatta continued their incredible resurgence by thrashing Penrith on Friday night. Unlike their last game against the Tigers, they started strongly, absorbed Penrith’s best, looked the far better team but this didn’t show on the scoreboard until just before half-time. A try either side of the break meant the game was pretty much over.

So Parramatta’s incredible run continues. Some may remember they put 9 wins together in late 2006 before running out of steam (and prop forwards) and being eliminated in Week 1 of the finals. This win made it 7 consecutive wins….but there are few signs of a loss being due/overdue in Parramatta’s game (aside from their abnormal run of incredible form). They didn’t even show any signs of after effects following their arduous effort against the Tigers.

But it cannot be forgotten how low their ladder standing was prior to this run…as a result, even some bad luck on Friday night could mean the end of their season. While History says they’re due for a loss, it’s hard to see it coming just yet.

Brisbane’s late-season turnaround continued on Friday night with a hard-earned win against the Cowbores. The Cowbores were extremely fortunate to get the early lead, but their top-shelf defensive effort meant they led for most of the game. While Brisbane always looked the better team, they struggled to put points on and two of their three tries looked very doubtful.

But their third try was one of the best seen in 2009. A short mid-field cross-kick by Feral Thurston went a little too far and was swallowed up by galloping Brisbane outside back Jharal Yow Yeh. Yow Yeh took off towards the Cowbores line and only Feral stood in his way. Yow Yeh then unleashed a masterful series of sidesteps and bamboozled Feral (more than the worst mace attack he has received) into eating grass.

Yow Yeh’s leap across the try-line was icing on the cake and gave Brisbane the lead, the impetus to ward off the last Cowbore advances and hold on for a much-needed win. One only had to witness the normally serene Darren Lockyer’s post-game reaction for a gauge of how important this win was for the Broncos. Despite their horrible middle few months of the season, their recent form means they could have significant input into the ultimate destination of this year’s title.

While the Tigers have now lost their last two games, and — following Manly’s unjust late win on Sunday — are now out of the running for a finals spot, their recent form has been excellent: how unfortunate for their many prominent admirers that they threw away a slew of games in the early to middle rounds of the season.

History might just reveal that the Tigers gave the rampant Eels their toughest match in the second half of 2009 and their effort in the Gold Coast heat on Saturday night despite missing a host of players to injury was….I would say gallant, but he was sadly missing due to injury.

Despite being without vital cog Beau Ryan — and his extremely important contribution of being the first man in with the post-try hugs — the Tigers led 16-12 at half-time and coming back to a 24-all score-line inside the final 15 minutes (despite having scored more tries than the Titans). Unfortunately the tiring Tigers could not produce any more and some key errors from Robbie Farah gave the Titans the boost to record a 12-point victory.

Speaking of the Titans, they head up the next group of teams: Taking Care Of Business (or, as MJ might say, the Smooth Criminals). For much of 2009, the Gold Coast has performed well only when necessary and often struggled when a match looked won or an opposition was vulnerable. Their win last week meant a top-3 spot was sealed and it was unlikely they would be able to finish higher than 3rd, so a somewhat flat effort against the Tigers would not have surprised.

So the fact that they were able to overcome a slow start and two vulnerable pairings of outside defenders (where the Tigers attacked incessantly) meant this was an impressive win for the Titans. They might not win the premiership, but they probably deserve to be a little higher in the premiership betting than they currently are.

The other Smooth Criminals are the Bulldogs, who overcame a potentially major injury to Brett Kimmorley by easily discarding the struggling Warriors. Obviously the Bulldogs would have been keen to play well for El Masri’s final normal season home game, but they’ve recorded similar efforts against a number of other potentially dangerous teams in recent weeks. The finals figure to be much tougher, but the Bulldogs have a solid rhythm established (which should continue even without Kimmorley) and should ensure they have a great chance of ultimate success.

The next group of teams could very well hold up the trophy in October, but they look a bit sick at the moment. The Struggling Giants (or, as Jacko might say “Remember The Time (when we were playing well)”) comprise last year’s grand finalists and what appeared to be one of 2009’s premier teams.

Despite a terribly slow start, Manly’s efforts during the middle of the season meant they could have a six-week sloppy stretch leading into September without this being fatal to their premiership chances. While they generally perform well against highly-ranked opposition or in hostile opposition venues, for some reason, they often struggle against less capable teams. Witness their pathetic efforts against Souths, Cronulla (at Cronulla) and (mostly) the Tigers in recent weeks.

They made heavy weather of defeating an under-strength Melbourne last week and this should have led into a smashing of Cronulla at Brookvale on Sunday. Manly lost heavily to Souths, but their performance against the Sharks was, all things considered, probably worse. To struggle mightily for a win against a much-weakened team with one man down is awful (and this was with a not-so-bad game from Matt Awful). The constant errors, dumb penalties conceded and poor attacking options taken (when each time they attacked correctly, they scored) would have frustrated even the most mild-mannered Manly supporter.

Luckily, Manly won’t be playing any more bad teams this season — this is probably exactly what they need.

Melbourne did thrash the Roosters on Saturday night: but who hasn’t thrashed the Roosters lately? Of course, the main point from this game was the return of Greg Inglis, which considerably helped what was a near-impotent Melbourne attack, but almost as important could be a number of injuries to Melbourne’s forwards. This shouldn’t be a concern this week, when they take on the Warriors, but could be their downfall in later weeks.

Last — and least — are the Dragons. How on earth did they lose 41-6 to Souths?!?!?! This was the palest of pale shadows of the team which led the competition for most of the season. The defence, the cohesiveness, the teamwork, the speed, the intensity: all were absent on Saturday night. Several moments suggested this was close to the bottom for the Dragons: Morris’ drop ball with the try-line in sight (80m away, but still), the gaping hole into which Lowe strolled for a Souths’ try but finally the farcical effort by Poore to take a Souths’ line drop-out.

Similar to Manly, the Dragons’ quality of opposition from now on will lift considerably: the threat of further humiliation could be the catalyst to turn their season around. There is no doubt the Dragons are struggling, but they have time — and one of the best coaches — on their side.

Another plus for the Dragons is their high ladder position meant they could afford a late-season slump. For many others, including the Cowbores, Penrith and Newcastle, there is not the same amount of leeway. These teams make up the Close But No Cigar group (or, as Jacko might say, there “Ain’t No Sunshine (where they’ve gone)”).

On their day, the Cowbores probably have enough talent and star power to win a premiership. A few weeks ago, they were relatively well-placed to make a good run — albeit with a tough draw in front of them. Now, at the end of their tough draw, their season is over. Injuries certainly played a role (Payne, Bowen and Hegarty) but they had strong leads in recent weeks and couldn’t seal the win at all. They thoroughly deserve their place in September purgatory and (if you don’t mind some editorial comment) it couldn’t happen to a nicer team.

Penrith and Newcastle will be involved a virtual elimination semi-final on Sunday, but realistically, both are playing for the right to be thrashed by the Bulldogs. Obviously, these teams enjoyed quite solid form during much of the season, but aside from Newcastle’s first two games under their new coach, they have both struggled heavily over the last month or so.

Newcastle’s end to the season could have been substantially different were it not for a very resilient Canberra effort last night. Canberra, Souths and (to a lesser extent) Cronulla make up the penultimate group of teams: Nuisance Value (or, as MJ might say, “They Don’t Care About Us”).

It must be an enormously frustrating season for Canberra supporters. When they are near their best, there are few better teams in the NRL. They have a huge forward pack and some very talented outside backs. They have beaten a number of contending teams (Melbourne, Brisbane, Newcastle, St George Illawarra and the Gold Coast), but they are a long way from the top 8.

Still, wins such as Canberra’s last night show just how even a competition the NRL is and, that if a few things go differently for them next season, Canberra could do as Gold Coast and Cronulla have done in recent years and surprise everyone with a near minor premiership. It remains to be seen though whether Canberra can be Nuisance Value away from home and against a Brisbane team which will surely have revenge on their mind this Sunday night.

One could very easily replace Canberra with Souths in the above two paragraphs. Souths might not have the dominant forward pack of Canberra, but they are just as capable of a big win when many expect this not to be the case. While the Dragons might be out of form, Souths would have beaten many NRL teams with their excellent effort on Saturday night.

Unfortunately for Souths, their final opponent is the last member of the Nuisance Value group: Cronulla. While Manly was far from their best, Cronulla’s effort in holding on to the lead for the bulk of their game on Sunday was admirable. They were fairly hard done by when Luke Douglas was sent off but didn’t give up. Despite the number of grubs in the Cronulla team, it was hard not to cheer for them as full-time neared and they were still in the lead. Alas, Manly finally did what they should have done much earlier and took the lead, but Cronulla won many friends with their effort.

Lastly, it’s the Cactus group (or, as Jacko might say “They’re Bad, they’re bad, so bad, c’mon”): New Zealand and the Roosters. Sunday afternoon saw the Warriors once again show glimpses of their undeniable talent, but once again, allow a team not a lot better than them to win easily. For the Roosters, it was more of the same. Another heavy defeat, more alcohol-fuelled mayhem…but if they can turn up for the departing Fitzgibbon, they just might avoid the wooden spoon (their first since MJ was a boy).

See you next week.