Round 16: History – Is It That Those Who Cannot Learn From It Are Doomed To Make The Same Mistakes? Or Is It Bunk (More Or Less)?

The evenness and parity across the NRL in recent years masks the fact that some teams have a dominant record over a number of years over particular other teams. However, those who watch Rugby League on even a semi-regular basis would know that it is very possible for a lesser talented but wholly committed team to succeed over a more highly ranked team over 80 minutes if that team is under-strength, experiences injuries during the game or is in any way complacent.

This can make the (quasi) science (art?) of predicting NRL results quite difficult. Will a very definite trend in the results between two given teams continue in their next match, or will the team on the wrong end of the trend make a stand (possibly using the negative history as motivation)?

Round 16 in the NRL saw a distinct trend in past results between each pair of matched up teams, but the relevance of this trend was different across many of these matches. In other words, a vastly different line-up for some teams – as well as the impact of backing up from the recent State of Origin match on many of the highly ranked teams – threatened to render recent history almost irrelevant in many cases.

Or did it? Below is a look at the Round 16 matches with respect to what history suggested might happen.

Wests Tigers v. St. George Illawarra

History: Wests had won 6 of the previous 7 games between these teams (including possibly the best game ever in September 2005). For whatever reason, the Tigers’ attack always gave the Dragons problems. Also, the 2009 Dragons had struggled (relatively speaking) backing up off representative games.

Reality: Or perhaps this should say ‘reality check’. The final margin might have only been 11 points, but this was a Dragons’ thrashing. They were perhaps a touch lucky to not concede any Tigers points in the first 35 or so minutes, but the ease with which they scored 4 tries of their own and their very solid defence against their bogey team was top-shelf. The Tigers looked somewhat off their game, but the Dragons’ excellent defence made the Tigers’ attack look almost comatose at times. Jamie Soward led the Dragons’ attack with a brilliant game. His improved ability to decide which play to utilise after seeing what the defence is allowing him means he should now be considered for the NSW team for Origin 3.

In the aftermath, it was suggested that the Dragons were happy to score a good win so soon after Origin, but any signs of post Origin tiredness were rarely evident in the Dragons’ effort. For the Tigers, they haven’t looked so overmatched in a long time, but every cloud has a silver lining: news that John Morris had signed with Cronulla from 2010 brought a smile to even the most disappointed Tigers supporter.

Bulldogs v. North Queensland

History: The Cowboys won 6 of the last 8 games between these teams (although they hadn’t played in Sydney for almost 5 years). Obviously, the Bulldogs of 2009 is a much different team to that of previous years, but ANY team that plays the Cowboys after a representative game has to fear the seemingly indefatigable Feral Thurston. While the Cowboys were also missing Bowen and O’Donnell, the Bulldogs have had a historical tendency to drop games at home when they are favoured to win (as they were on Friday night).

Reality: The Cowboys were very competitive for much of this game, but ultimately this was another victory for the Bulldogs and especially their potent left-side attack of Roberts, Morris and Goodwin (the latter two of these should both be considered for the NSW team for Origin 3). Thurston was again excellent in backing up, but the Cowboys really missed O’Donnell and Bowen. Bowen may not be at his brilliant best at the moment, but the Cowboys miss him because they simply do not have another half-decent fullback.

Gold Coast v. New Zealand

History: While these teams have only ever played three times, Round 16 has been a turning point of these two clubs’ seasons in recent years. In 2007, the Warriors defeated the Titans to start the Titans’ losing run to end that season, while in 2008, the Titans lost their first home game of the season and started a run of 2 wins out of their final 11 games to end the season and miss the finals (again). A loss in this game would have been the Titans’ first home loss of the season and they were without a number of important players for this game (injuries were a distinct feature of their 2007 and 2008 meltdowns).

Meanwhile the Warriors have endured mid-season runs of futility before resurrecting their campaigns from approximately Round 16 during the last three seasons. In 2007, they did this with a win on the Gold Coast as they won 9 of their last 12, while in 2008, a Round 16 win over the Tigers was the start of an eight wins in 10 matches stretch. They finished 2006 by winning 8 out of 12, where the third win in this stretch came in Round 16.

Reality: Once again, the Titans proved to be very resilient. Time and time again this season, they have faced significant challenges and overcome most of them. Their depth is the best in the NRL and their incorporation of young talent into their line-up is done better than most. The Warriors started this game well, but the Gold Coast held them out and displayed a strong and open style of play to take a good lead to half-time, which became the foundation of another impressive win. The Titans seem to relish the challenge of overcoming a historical hurdle and getting a win without important players. The ageless Preston Campbell had another pearler – he could be a real chance for NSW for Origin 3.

Meanwhile, it was another disappointing effort in Australia for the Warriors, but as long as they show glimpses of brilliance and remain within the vicinity of the top 8, their standard late-season run is a possibility.

Sydney Roosters v. Cronulla

History: The Roosters have a significant edge over Cronulla and have had this since Cronulla’s inception, but this edge has been pronounced at the Sydney Football Stadium, especially in recent years. Making matters worse for Cronulla in the lead-up to this game was the Roosters’ poor form. In the teams’ previous five matches at the SFS, the Roosters had won 4. Of the last 3 of these, the Roosters had lost 3 (and had their coach resign), 6 and 5 games coming into their game against Cronulla. Their losing streak before this game was 6.

Reality: Whether they did so to continue their historical dominance or just to end a long losing streak, the Roosters were much improved in defeating Cronulla on Saturday night. While they had been unlucky in recent weeks, their sustained intensity in this game has not been seen….for months. They did show a few lingering signs of terrible defence from recent weeks when they allowed Cronulla to score two tries despite barely crossing half-way during the first half, but their intensity did not waver in the second half and eventually the gutsy Sharks had to relent. Fitzgibbon and Mason led the way for the Roosters and must be a show for NSW for Origin 3, while Pearce also put in an accomplished effort and must now also be in contention.

That said, Ricky Stuart might make a return to the Roosters’ Christmas Card List for allowing the clearly and significantly injured Paul Gallen to play much of this game despite a badly hurt shoulder. This allowed the Roosters to get an easy try (when scoring for them was hard work) early in the second half and hindered Cronulla’s comeback efforts.

Canberra v. Melbourne

History: Melbourne came into this game having won their last FOURTEEN games against Canberra. However, Melbourne have shown signs of vulnerability in post Origin games over the last few years where few challenges have been presented, while their previous three games in Canberra were all very hard fought affairs, with Melbourne only escaping with fairly close wins.

Reality: History looked set to repeat here for about 15 minutes late in the second half, after Canberra started very strongly and scored what looked like being the important first try of the second half to reach a 20-4 lead, but Melbourne then scored two nice tries to cut the deficit to just 4 with much time remaining.

However, Canberra held strong and didn’t allow Melbourne any chances to score (despite some good field position) before Bronson Harrison put the icing on the cake with a try in the final minute. As a Kiwi, he is ineligible for Origin 3, but NSW could do a lot worse than choosing Canberra’s inspirational Alan Tongue for Origin 3, as well as Learoyd-Lahrs, Tilse and Dugan.

The combination of Canberra’s determination to overcome history and Melbourne’s usual effort to avoid defeat meant this was one of the better games so far this season, but Melbourne will be cursing their lack of preparation (effort?) to combat Canberra’s cross-kicks for the acrobatic Monaghan. There was little doubt that it was a courageous effort for Inglis to play in this game, but his inability to protect his winger from the Monaghan assault probably ended up costing his team the win.

Parramatta v. Brisbane

History: This rivalry is somewhat like Parramatta’s against Cronulla: while Parramatta often has success in Brisbane, they rarely defeat them at home. However, Parramatta has been in an on-off pattern since Round 7 and, if the pattern was to be followed, this was to be the ‘on’ week (where all the ‘on’ weeks have seen Parramatta take on teams well above them on the ladder). Also, Brisbane has struggled mightily in post Origin games since the bulk of their experienced squad left following 2007.

Reality: The ‘uncertain’ history gave way to perhaps the most difficult game to tip of the round. Once it became clear Parramatta had ‘turned up’ to play, a win for them almost seemed assured, especially with the late withdrawal of Israel Folau, the news of the injuries carried by Peter Wallace and Karmichael Hunt and the in-game injury suffered by Nick Kenny. However, Brisbane slowly but surely came back into the game and when Michaels crossed for his second try, Parramatta’s lead was gone and a virtual field-goal shoot-out had begun.

Parramatta created a number of chances during this time, mostly through the white-hot Jarryd Hayne, but failed to convert any of them, while Brisbane’s forwards were gaining solid amounts of distance, getting them closer to good field goal position. Eventually Lockyer had a good look at giving his team the lead – but he slipped and Brisbane’s chances slipped away, as Parramatta marched down the field and Luke Burt knocked over a field goal from almost 40 metres out.

When Brisbane’s short kick-off failed, Parramatta celebrated with young Mortimer crossing for a famous win. He and Burt surely have to be considered for NSW for Origin 3, as well as Hindmarsh, Grothe and Reddy.

Newcastle v. Souths

History: Newcastle has a dominant record over Souths since their inception in 1988 (23 wins out of 29 games) but they have shown an alarming tendency to drop their level of play to that of their opponents this season (as seen in their loss to Parramatta, their dodgy win over the Warriors and their collapse against the Tigers). The struggling but desperate Rabbitohs fit the bill of a team who could trouble the inconsistent Knights, especially as they were without Craig Wing (and Wing’s absence could perhaps have worsened any Newcastle complacency).

Reality: It became apparent not long after the start of this game that Newcastle’s 17-day period since their last game could also be a factor driving a possible poor performance. They started strongly and looked set to overwhelm Souths, but it probably came a little too easy for Newcastle and they were probably a little bit too keen to start strongly after such a long layoff. Mentally, Newcastle lapsed over the next ten or so minutes (exemplified by Danny Wicks’ floating pass when a hit-up was the right play) and Souths scored two tries and could have scored more.

Souths enjoyed a 12-6 half-time lead despite some very poor decisions and execution by John Sutton. However, he was almost matched in the ineptness stakes by his counterpart and former team-mate Ben Rogers: it was a Battle Of The Pathetic Five-Eighths for a fair while, but surprisingly, neither will be considered for NSW for Origin 3.

After half-time, Newcastle re-focussed and hence dominated much of the second half to record a solid win. Jarrod Mullen led the way, steering Newcastle around beautifully and putting his name into contention for NSW for Origin 3 (seriously). His deft field goal was a highlight. But the return of Adam MacDougall (and having him defended by makeshift centre Ben Lowe) also helped, with Newcastle sending most of their attack down MacDougall’s right side. MacDougall and Steve Simpson played themselves into contention for a spot on an extended bench for NSW in Origin 3.

Hopefully you enjoyed this look at History in the NRL and (in this round) just how useless it is as a predictor of results. Next week on the Roast, there will be a detailed look at the 48-man NSW squad for Origin 3. See you next week.

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