Week 3 has been and gone (over a week ago) but was probably not quite as deserving of discussion as events of previous weeks. And that suited Melbourne and Manly just fine.. they took care of business to set up a rematch of last year's grand final (in a few hours).
But while the grand final rematch was expected for months by many, the differing paths to this game mean Manly is favourites but a very strong case can be made for both teams' chances.
Good old Cronulla. Even with a different team, a coach completely unsteeped in their tradition of stumbling in September and a vulnerable opponent, they screwed it up completely. Melbourne was extremely impressive, but you sensed that if Cronulla turned up, played hard and somewhere near their best, Melbourne would have had to work much harder to get the win. I'm not entirely sure the weakened Storm had that in them...
But after Melbourne scored first - when Cronk saw the gap between Gallen and Green - it was clear they had a steely determination to succeed. Cronk has been a very quick learner/hard worker in his few years in the NRL, but this was a coming out party for him. He doesn't appear a naturally gifted player, he looks like someone who has had to work harder than most for what he has, but just on this game, he might be in the top 5 leaders in the NRL.
On Saturday, Manly was almost at their best in dominating the Warriors. The Warriors weren't that bad, but their gaping lack of a solid player in the halves finally cost them. They were probably better than the 8th best team in the NRL this season, but for them to go on the great run they did to reach 8th and then week 3 of the finals with Rovelli/Witt/Fien in the halves was exceptional. Unfortunately for them, they couldn't lure Mathew Head: he might have made them premiership threats.
On to today. After Melbourne found a few tries out of very little (one of their best skills) and held on grimly to defeat Manly in Round 21, I couldn't help but think Manly would win the next game played between these teams. Their size overwhelmed Melbourne. Melbourne has a very hard-working pack, but they just couldn't make much of an impact against Manly. If Orford was even 30% on his game, Manly looked certainties.
But Melbourne has looked vulnerable at various times this season (although none more than the first 2 weeks of the finals) but has shown a remarkable ability to stay in games: they've not lost by more than a few points (except when they were without their Origin players) all season.
Melbourne has a great record against Manly (the only times they've lost to them since 2006 have been in pre/post-Origin games) and several years of big-game experience. Some of Manly's key players have a reputation for failing to deliver in big matches (and only few of them have Origin experience).
Another point from another sport was when the NBA's Chicago Bulls won 6 titles in 8 years, they often ran into the opponents on multiple occasions but beat them time after time (even when they appeared vulnerable). It may sound obvious but knowing how to win is the most important quality in professional sports. Melbourne might not be a Chicago Bulls-type of team, but there is no doubt they know how to win.
But can they do it without someone as important as Cameron Smith (and to a lesser extent Ryan Hoffman)? For any chance of winning, Melbourne's 2nd tier forwards (Lima, Blair, Kaufusi, Manu etc) have to have a big game.
The weather (possibly rainy) probably favours Manly (because of their size). It's a very tough one. The Tuesday Roast still says Manly will win - perhaps the best thing you can say about Manly is that on paper they have less talent than last season but that they are a better team than last season - due to a combination of their size, speed and (grand final) experience, but Melbourne has a very good chance of repeating.
Enjoy your day.
Sunday 5 October 2008
Finals week 3 review (& grand final preview)
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