Tuesday 29 April 2008

Round 7: Could the NRL's victims strike a rare blow against their tormentors?

Over the last decade or so, the NRL has been quite successful at bringing an increasing amount of parity to the competition. A quick glance at the list of recent premiership winners confirms this. Still, no matter how far an administrative body goes in the quest for evenness, there will always be some teams who exert an undue amount of dominance over others. Each match in Round 7 featured one team with a long run of success over the other, a matchup where one team's success has altered the psyche of the defeated or a combination of the two.

So, in a competition geared towards parity (or, as Phil Gould says, "the punishment of success"), surely this dominance had to come to an end at some point? The bookmakers thought the downtrodden had a better than average chance of retribution, with 4 of the 6 victims expected achieve success, but any thoughts of some long-overdue revenge were looking surprisingly unlikely just minutes after kickoff at Homebush on ANZAC Day afternoon.

Yes, it was that once-in-three-to-six-weeks freak occurrence: an exemplary Dragons' performance. Their highly-rated but rarely performing forward pack won the battle against a Roosters' pack sure to be plundered by representative teams in coming months: this is a success that can't be claimed by Melbourne or Brisbane this season.

The return of Soward (and, more importantly, his excellent kicking game), Hornby's return to fullback and Young's move to dummy half allowed the Dragons to get the most opportunities from their forward dominance, while their defence was first-rate: despite the one-sided scoreline, most of the statistics indicated a close contest.

In other words, the Roosters had about as much good field position as the Dragons did, but they failed to convert most of this into points. The kicking game of Mitchell Pearce and Braith Anasta - in concert with some athletic outside backs - had yielded significant rewards for the Roosters so far this season, but the organised and equally athletic Dragons' outside backs repelled all of the Roosters' kicking forays.

So the Dragons continued their recent run of dominance over the Roosters, with the win on ANZAC Day giving them 5 wins in the 6 matches between the two teams since the retirement of Brad Fittler.

Just over a month before Brad Fittler's first game of top-grade rugby league, Souths last defeated Brisbane in Brisbane. Obviously, many teams have enjoyed periods of dominance over Souths since their last successful year of 1989, but Brisbane's is better than most.

The corresponding fixture between the two teams last year saw Brisbane grind their way (this has become a cliché over the years, but adequately described the 8-4 result) to a win and this again appeared to be Souths' best chance of success, especially when it was revealed Justin Hodges would be starting from the bench (due to the flu) and when centre Steve Michaels sustained an injury after just a few minutes. If Souths could keep it close while doing their best to tire the ailing and undermanned Broncos, they might have had a chance to win in the game's dying minutes.

Alas, they were never really a chance. Brisbane scored not long after Michaels was taken from the field and their consistent effort was rewarded by a variety of Souths' mistakes throughout the game. Even still, Souths closed the gap late in the game, due to some inspired play and more Brisbane injuries: Brisbane was fielding some players who would have been rested in normal circumstances. However, more Souths' mistakes and a late Brisbane try made the final margin a somewhat unfair 14 points: Souths are (cliché alert) "not far away".

But with an already thin Souths' lineup set to be decimated in Round 8 by a mass demotion for excess alcohol consumption, the cliché looks likely to be trotted out for at least another week.

A seemingly futile wait for success gives Cronulla supporters the motivation to get out of bed (and whinge) every morning. On Sunday, their team took on the Wests Tigers, who hadn't defeated since June 2003. The prospect of seeing their team conjure up a new way to lose to a dominant opponent attracted the largest crowd at Toyota Park in over a year.

Early on, Cronulla almost monopolised possession and seemed certain to finally post a mountain of points. But a funny thing happened: not only did Cronulla post just one try from their extended stay near the Tigers' tryline, but they didn't sap as much of the Tigers' energy as such a stay would have suggested. The Tigers are not renowned as a tireless tackling machine, so it can only be concluded that the monotony and predictability of Cronulla's attack not only doesn't score many points, but doesn't tire opposing defences as much as others do.

Sure, the Tigers looked a little tired at times after their extended defensive effort, but in almost every venture into Cronulla's 20-metre area, their long passing, bodies in motion and offloads looked much more likely to result in points. It was a quick play-the-ball and some smart play from Heighington which saw the Tigers narrow the deficit to 2, then, after a series of Cronulla mistakes, the ever-surprising ball-playing skills of Brett Hodgson set up Chris Lawrence and the Tigers, amazingly, had a half-time lead.

It was Hodgson again who extended the Tigers' lead early in the second half, but Cronulla eventually scored a second try - from perhaps their best set of six tackles (in terms of gaining momentum and quick play-the-balls) in the game - and added a few penalty goals to have a late lead.

While penalty goals add points, Cronulla's two penalty goal options were taken when the Tigers looked vulnerable, especially their last one with under 10 minutes left. Despite Phil Gould's concerns, the Tigers had enough left in the tank to put together a strong set of six. Heighington came within inches of giving the Tigers back the lead, but a Mathew Head grubber from dummy half - in a Farah-like manner - set up Lawrence for the match-winning try and more success for the Tigers over Cronulla.

This year was supposed to be different for Cronulla. They were meant to have focused more on attack, they were supposed to be better prepared to win the close game. But after a great start, they have stalled, really since Round 3. They figure to be without Gallen and Bird for much of the representative season. It hurts to me say it(no, really) but could their annual decline have started so soon?

Melbourne will also be without many of their best over the representative season, amazingly even more so than in previous years. Over their last two years of dominance, they have tormented many teams, including the Cowbores. Prior to early 2006, the Cowbores enjoyed a very good record against Melbourne, but Melbourne's last two wins against North Queensland have been crushing. Not only did they suffocate Feral and Matt Bowen in keeping the Cowbores to 6 and 12 points respectively in those two games, the 58 points their attack put on in Townsville last year was perhaps the most dominant display of last season.

However, the Cowbores were seemingly handed a gift by this year's schedule makers, with Melbourne having to back up from playing in Canberra last Monday night, while the Cowbores were playing their second straight game at home. Canberra also did the Cowbores a favour, forcing Melbourne to play at their best to record a late comeback win. Throw in the Cowbores' resurgence from their early-season malaise and the planets were aligning for some rare Cowbores' revenge.

While the Cowbores clearly performed at a much greater level of intensity than they have this season (and perhaps for a few years), they were also clearly spooked by the speed, relentlessness and force of Melbourne's defence. Feral and Matt Bowen looked uncomfortable for much of the game, as they were often rushed by Melbourne defenders from various angles, while Melbourne's excellent defensive technique resulted in a swathe of Cowbores' dropped ball (aided by the humid Townsville conditions).

But even more things went right for the Cowbores, making Melbourne's task even more difficult. The unfortunate injury to Billy Slater (finally, an appropriate reason to use the Feral moniker!) severely restricted Melbourne's attacking options, while a combination of Cowbores' enthusiasm and a whistle-happy referee saw Melbourne on the wrong end of a heavy penalty count.

All this made Melbourne's victory that much more impressive. After the Cowbores finally scored to cut Melbourne's lead to 6-4, a typical piece of Folau dominance made it 12-4. Although North Queensland made it 12-10 inside the last 10 minutes, they never seriously threatened to score again. Melbourne's defence was incredible and showed few signs of fatigue, despite having many reasons to do so.

Many also expected Manly to show signs of fatigue from a combination of a tough win in difficult conditions on the previous Friday night, a host of injuries and what is notoriously a heavy track at Brookvale Oval. Making Manly's predicament worse was that they were playing perhaps the best team in the league at coming to Brookvale and leaving with 2 points: the Bulldogs.

After the first 10 minutes, the Bulldogs had a 10-nil lead and were looking like good things to make it 5 wins from their last 6 trips to Brookvale Oval. Manly's comeback in the second part of the first half was largely reliant on a host of Bulldogs' mistakes. If the Bulldogs could cut back on their mistakes, another Brookvale win looked likely, especially with Manly expected to tire late on.

By the time Manly eased off, they had a 20-point lead. Their performance given the obstacles in their way was impressive. However, the various representative selectors were not so kind to Manly players and several of them responded yesterday by churlishly dropping out of the City Country game. Good on them: the reasons to dislike Manly list had fallen perilously low in recent years.

Lastly, the second win for the weekend for the downtrodden took place on Sunday afternoon, where the Gold Coast recorded a solid win over the team who gave them the most trouble last season: the New Zealand Warriors. The Warriors' combination of size and mobility caused many problems for the Titans last season, but the improved form of a number of Titans' players - including Scott Prince, Anthony Laffranchi and (over the last two weeks) Preston Campbell - and the heat of Robina overwhelmed the Warriors.

To the Warriors' credit, they didn't capitulate as they did in Townsville last week and probably had the better of the game after falling behind 24-8. Michael Witt was probably the Warriors' best: he had a pivotal role in 3 of the 4 Warriors' tries.

But the Titans' multi-faceted attack was too much. Prince was again very good, but Campbell again made the absence of Mat Rogers a moot point. His involvement from fullback was well-timed and integral to Gold Coast's continued success.

However, one does wonder if the Gold Coast attacking juggernaut is any chance against the relentless defensive machine called Melbourne. Melbourne now has a major mental edge over Manly and the Cowbores: while the NRL has succeeded in making the competition more even, this has also had the effect of making it more difficult for teams to compete with Melbourne. Injuries and the annual post-representative doldrums can slow any good team, but Melbourne look quite likely to continue their dominance over a number of teams and repeat in the NRL for the first time in 15 years.

See you next week.

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