Round 24: Live from the NRL Tally Room in Canberra

Kerry O'Brien: Hello and welcome to the NRL Tally Room in Canberra for what promises to be an extremely engrossing night of viewing. Whereas previous election nights only focussed on a handful of key seats with the outcome in the remainder known well in advance, on this night, a close contest is expected in most seats, with a number of underdogs threatening to steal victory. As usual, I'm joined by the ABC's Election Analyst Antony Green, and Antony, how's the computer predictions looking thus far?

Antony Green: Well Kerry, there has been somewhat of a swing towards the sitting members in Penrith and Townsville, but not much else to report at this early stage. This is of course, hardly surprising, as we've received less than 5% of the vote so far, mostly from the outer booths at the north end of CUA Stadium. To borrow a Rugby League metaphor, we're only a few minutes into the contest, with a good 75 minutes still to play.

KO'B: Thanks Antony, now let's welcome our more interesting guests for tonight: left-wing and right-wing stooge. Welcome gents.

Left Wing Stooge: Thanks Kerry and it's looking good in Penrith! My information is that our lead out there has extended further! So much so that I'm almost calling that seat for us!

AG: I wouldn't be quite so confident at this stage....hang on, I can confirm the information from left-wing stooge and can also confirm another very strong result. Approaching 25% of the vote counted, this seat can almost be given back to the sitting member for Penrith.

Right Wing Stooge: Let's not count our chickens yet, Kerry, the pre-poll and postal votes out Penrith way would probably favour us, but on to other matters and we're looking very good in Townsville! The big-name candidate for Townsville recently of south-western Sydney might have thought he was a chance in this tight seat but it's a big lead for us early on!

AG: History tells us the early booth results from Townsville are notoriously poor predictors of the final outcome, I'm not sure why this is the case, but I won't be calling anything here for a while.

KO'B: Let's move on to some of the key seats and firstly Newcastle.

AG: This has long been a left-wing stronghold despite the poor quality of candidate since the retirement of the very successful sitting member in 2007. Internal fighting and criminal charges threatened to take this seat away from the left in recent months, but a late turnaround in fortunes for the left has seen their polling results improve markedly in recent weeks. The big-name right candidate, who grew up in Brisbane, is under real pressure here.

RWS: I'm not sure about that Antony, I've heard we've started well in early polling and my scrutineers tell me there was a significant officiating error but it was dismissed. We might here more about that later. Anyway, we're on top in early polling.

AG: I can confirm this, with about 25% of the vote counted, the candidate from Brisbane is favoured to win from here, according to the computer prediction.

LWS: We won't give up Newcastle without a fight, this is a loyal community, I'm confident they'll stick with the local.

RWS: Didn't you hear Antony? I think you've got too much pink batts stuck in your ears...

KO'B: And now onto another key western Sydney seat and Parramatta, where the popular sitting member is backed to retain his seat but is at risk after a difficult campaign riddled with very public whispers of in-fighting. His opponent is also popular, also leans to the left (despite representing a merged entity) and has taken on the sitting member in numerous contests over the years but almost never comes close to a victory.

AG: This is true, Kerry, but recent polling suggests the sitting member is at risk. One wonders why he didn't decide on staging the election at night and hence denying the merged opponent his preferred timeslot. Early booths suggest this seat is still too close to call, although our exit poll suggests it would not be a surprise to see the challenger take an early lead.

LWS: This is my information Antony, the local member could be in trouble here.

KO'B: Now the seat of Canberra, where the local left-wing member has seen better days but has an uncanny record of success against challengers from the far-right Red V Party. Red V has enjoyed a very successful last few years, but ultimate success continues to elude them and of course, they've not had a win in Canberra since 2000. Antony, how is it looking?

AG: Well the computer is predicting a Red V win, only a fairly small swing is required and the widespread support for Red V could very well deliver this. My early information is that Red V has infact taken a lead and with counting nearing 50%, has maintained this edge, despite pressure from the local member. Maybe a drought-breaker here Kerry?

LWS: Hahaha we're very confident here, we'll finish strong, our recent momentum should mean the pre-polls and postals are favouring us, I'd be surprised if we lost this one.

RWS: I'd love to argue this, but I've been burned too many times calling Canberra for us. Anyway, on to better news, and some right-wing strongholds: we're looking solid in Manly and Bondi against some tough opposition in the early going.

AG: Yes, the computer has you guys predicted to get up in these right-wing seats, but the early results are somewhat unexpected: the Polynesian candidate for Manly surprised in all the pre-surveys and is holding his own here, while the Party Party Party candidate for Bondi (formerly of the Gold Coast) is also faring well, it's roughly neck-and-neck approaching 50% of the vote counted in Bondi.

LWS: That's a great showing there by those two candidates in tough-to-win seats. I thought they both ran excellent campaigns.

KO'B: Back to Newcastle, and Antony, I understand there's been some developments there.

AG: Certainly has, with 65% of the vote counted now, the local member has pulled well in front and I can't see him losing from here. A massive swing of over 10% when only about 2% was needed. However, the merged candidate has pulled further in front in Parramatta, important to note here the local member's margin was diminished after the redistribution and computer is now predicting a merged victory.

RWS: Good to hear, I also hear we're slowly getting control in Manly in a real arm-wrestle, while the member in Townsville has a strong lead also.

LWS: Here we come in Canberra, back in front according to my sources, I don't know how Red V will come back from here, while the local Penrith member is on the way to a huge victory! Throw in the Party Party Party candidate now in the lead in Bondi and it's a great night for the left-wing of Australian politics!

KO'B: I'm not supposed to be happy about this, but on the inside I'm doing cartwheels! Let's summarise for the night, Antony, a wrap-up please.

AG: Ok, as was said, a huge swing and an easy win for the local members in Penrith and Newcastle, it looks like the member for Manly will hold on although this outcome probably won't be confirmed until the pre-poll and postal votes are counted, an easy win for the local member in Melbourne....I've just heard the Townsville member has shockingly fallen behind, proving again the fallibility of relying on the early booth results, that one will probably go down to the wire.....the Red V looks like recording another solid defeat in Canberra, while it's a surprise defeat for the member for Bondi and........the member for Parramatta has had a late surge of support, but NO! Two votes which would have seen them retain the seat have been deemed informal!

KO'B: On that note, it's good night from Canberra.

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