The Tuesday Roast: 2008

Tuesday 14 October 2008

"...I sure didn't see that coming"

Craig Bellamy's post-game press conference quote was shared by many thousands more who watched the game.

Just how did Melbourne lose by 40 on the biggest day of the Rugby League year?! How did Manly do it? And what might happen in 2009 for these and other teams (although given my patchy record at forecasting, this may be a somewhat pointless exercise)? All this and more below the fold.

After struggling through the torturous pre-game entertainment (perhaps the first pre-game entertainment to be remembered despite going as planned), the game got underway.

Manly was always going to come out fast and hard. They threatened to overwhelm a full-strength Melbourne when they last clashed at Brookvale in August, so Manly's best chance was to physically dominate and wear out the Storm's point-scoring threats.

But it appeared Manly may have come out too hard. Their great efforts brought only a few marginal try-scoring chances in the first 10 or so minutes, while Melbourne seemed to absorb Manly quite comfortably and a bit of luck saw Folau threaten to wreak havoc on Manly's left-side defence.

As I always do in neutral grand finals, I end up cheering for the team who I think will win, so I was hoping Manly would win, but as Manly failed to break the Storm's resistance, as Melbourne looked like possibly moving down the field just a few times and utilising the talents of a Folau or Slater to take an undeserved early lead, as Manly looked edgy a few times (Stewart under the high ball from Inglis, Matt Orford several times on the last tackle), I feared a gritty Melbourne win was a very real possibility.

But Manly slowly took major control of the game. Melbourne's kick-chase might have been very good for Inglis's towering bomb, but it was sloppy for two kicks which saw David 'Wolfman' Williams return the ball in between a scattered Melbourne defensive line for significant metreage.

The second of these saw a return of about 20 metres and after Manly secured a six-again (when a Menzies offload was unable to be gathered in by Lima), their pressure eventually paid off as Ballin snuck across for the first try.

It gradually became clear (in hindsight i.e. while watching the game without having consumed a few beers) that Melbourne had little more to give than what they were displaying. With just under 10 minutes left in the first half, a relatively straight-forward Manly play (with the standard decoy runners and second-man plays) saw Manly (just) get around Melbourne: Robertson scored in the corner. There might have been a fair bit of doubt on the try, but the ease with which Manly scored (there wasn't even a dominating run to put the defence into backpedalling mode before) was an ominous sign for Melbourne.

But Matt Orford's bad goal-kicking (or bad ankle...or both) meant Manly led by just 8-0. Watching the game live however, I still feared a Melbourne comeback. They'd done it so many times from less than 14 or 16 points down, it was such a big stage, they had the wood on Manly etc etc.

But when Manly went across again early in the second half (thanks to a well-placed Orford kick - wow!), it was all but over. When Robertson made it 3 in a row soon after (not long after I rejected someone's assertion of a Manly win by more than 16), Manly had 4 tries on the board (but only 18 points: Matai could only hit one out of 2 from the sideline).

I couldn't remember when Melbourne last conceded 4 tries in a game. In the old days for Melbourne (i.e. 2003-2005), they crumbled when the opposition got to 20 against them, but the current Storm is streets ahead of the talented but fragile team from 3+ years ago...but the 2008 team's super-competitive psyche and toughness was in the process of being smashed by the dominant Sea Eagles. The rout was on (despite Melbourne never giving up).

It ended up at 40, Menzies scored a great try, 'Against the Grain' Bell finished off some excellent work: it was a thorough effort from a great team.

But you wonder: could Manly have beaten a Storm team at full-strength which didn't have half its team have to shoulder the extra workload of Origin (compared to almost no Origin representation for Manly)? We'll never know, but you'd think Manly will get a lot more respect when Origin teams are chosen in 2009. There's the salary cap and the representative selections which always (eventually) bring great teams in the NRL back to the pack: Manly will be no different.

But Manly might - might - be on the cusp of dominance. Their physical prowess over a league where those who dominate are brought back to the pack soon enough was quite amazing (at times). Most NRL games result in possession being shared about 50-50 between the teams. In a few games this year (often when a big game was needed), Manly was able to dominate possession and utilise their size, strength and speed advantages over most teams to such an extent that when it came time for the other team to enjoy some possession, the other team had nothing left. What Manly and their strength and conditioning regime has done with Ben Kennedy and Josh Perry has been amazing: talented players with injury/attitude problems were transformed after less than 1 year playing for Manly.

This may be Manly's legacy: that they can be much better physically than most other NRL teams. While their skills base has improved in leaps and bounds since a few years back, the skills base generally builds up the margin in wins, but it is their physical prowess which wins games for them.

Melbourne will still have a heap of Origin reps in 2009 (despite losing players such as Folau, Crocker and Kaufusi) but despite their big-name playing roster, has their run at the top finished? Their depth will (again) be lessened: they've lost a host of very good players over the last few years during their tenure at the top of the NRL. There's no doubting Bellamy's ability to bring very good younger players through and get a lot of players who've struggled at other teams, but you'd think more will be asked of him/the fringe players than at any time since the start of 06.

They still will have perhaps 3 of the top 10 players in the NRL (Slater, Smith and Inglis) next year, but more will be asked of them. Recent history says it's tough for teams to remain at the top for more than 3 years: a tricky year ahead for Melbourne.

Lastly, Matt Orford. He joins the 'elite' list of recent premiership-winning halfbacks: Cronk, Perry, Prince (2005 was an exception in so many ways), Sherwin, Gower and Wing. Who said you need a championship halfback to win it all?

I know, I know...Orford won the Dally M. But he so did all of his good work on the back of his great forwards. He's not a leader, he's a follower of the good work of others. Even someone like Cooper Cronk, who is so far from being a natural halfback its not funny, is such a leader that it doesn't matter he has relatively few halfback skills. Could you see Orford being in Cronk's position and leading his weakened team to a win over Cronulla? Well.. anyone can beat Cronulla when it matters, but Orford is just not that sort of player. The timid, almost frightened look on his face after he won the Dally M and during grand final week was almost embarrassing.

But Manly must be a team of great guys: they all seem to love Orford heaps and are prepared to work hard for him. A very talented and physically dominant team prepared to work harder for someone earning more than most of them: there's something quite...nice about this. How can anyone hate Manly anymore?? But that's a post for another day.

On that note, farewell and see you in 2009!

Sunday 5 October 2008

Finals week 3 review (& grand final preview)

Week 3 has been and gone (over a week ago) but was probably not quite as deserving of discussion as events of previous weeks. And that suited Melbourne and Manly just fine.. they took care of business to set up a rematch of last year's grand final (in a few hours).

But while the grand final rematch was expected for months by many, the differing paths to this game mean Manly is favourites but a very strong case can be made for both teams' chances.

Good old Cronulla. Even with a different team, a coach completely unsteeped in their tradition of stumbling in September and a vulnerable opponent, they screwed it up completely. Melbourne was extremely impressive, but you sensed that if Cronulla turned up, played hard and somewhere near their best, Melbourne would have had to work much harder to get the win. I'm not entirely sure the weakened Storm had that in them...

But after Melbourne scored first - when Cronk saw the gap between Gallen and Green - it was clear they had a steely determination to succeed. Cronk has been a very quick learner/hard worker in his few years in the NRL, but this was a coming out party for him. He doesn't appear a naturally gifted player, he looks like someone who has had to work harder than most for what he has, but just on this game, he might be in the top 5 leaders in the NRL.

On Saturday, Manly was almost at their best in dominating the Warriors. The Warriors weren't that bad, but their gaping lack of a solid player in the halves finally cost them. They were probably better than the 8th best team in the NRL this season, but for them to go on the great run they did to reach 8th and then week 3 of the finals with Rovelli/Witt/Fien in the halves was exceptional. Unfortunately for them, they couldn't lure Mathew Head: he might have made them premiership threats.

On to today. After Melbourne found a few tries out of very little (one of their best skills) and held on grimly to defeat Manly in Round 21, I couldn't help but think Manly would win the next game played between these teams. Their size overwhelmed Melbourne. Melbourne has a very hard-working pack, but they just couldn't make much of an impact against Manly. If Orford was even 30% on his game, Manly looked certainties.

But Melbourne has looked vulnerable at various times this season (although none more than the first 2 weeks of the finals) but has shown a remarkable ability to stay in games: they've not lost by more than a few points (except when they were without their Origin players) all season.

Melbourne has a great record against Manly (the only times they've lost to them since 2006 have been in pre/post-Origin games) and several years of big-game experience. Some of Manly's key players have a reputation for failing to deliver in big matches (and only few of them have Origin experience).

Another point from another sport was when the NBA's Chicago Bulls won 6 titles in 8 years, they often ran into the opponents on multiple occasions but beat them time after time (even when they appeared vulnerable). It may sound obvious but knowing how to win is the most important quality in professional sports. Melbourne might not be a Chicago Bulls-type of team, but there is no doubt they know how to win.

But can they do it without someone as important as Cameron Smith (and to a lesser extent Ryan Hoffman)? For any chance of winning, Melbourne's 2nd tier forwards (Lima, Blair, Kaufusi, Manu etc) have to have a big game.

The weather (possibly rainy) probably favours Manly (because of their size). It's a very tough one. The Tuesday Roast still says Manly will win - perhaps the best thing you can say about Manly is that on paper they have less talent than last season but that they are a better team than last season - due to a combination of their size, speed and (grand final) experience, but Melbourne has a very good chance of repeating.

Enjoy your day.

Thursday 25 September 2008

Brisbane Broncos: End of an Era

It was a rare show of emotion from Darren Lockyer (as Greg Inglis snatched a late win for the still-underwhelming Storm on Saturday night) but he had every right to be upset. Not just because they had lost a great opportunity to make it to a preliminary final but because it might just be his last chance at premiership success. A lot of familiar faces still ran out on to Suncorp Stadium this season, but the Broncos are not the team they once were.

In other news from Week 2 of an intriguing NRL finals series, the Storm are running on fumes but still running, the Roosters still couldn't figure out that a rugby league game lasts for 80 minutes and the Warriors' juggernaut kept on rolling.

Between 1992 and 2002, Brisbane made it to the prelim final stage or beyond six times. Since then, they've made it just once as their depth suffered, their ability to acquire the best SEQ talent tapered somewhat and their Origin stars were largely unable to produce in latter part of each season.

That said, their 2006 premiership was a sterling achievement. Their trademark late-season slump threatened to see them miss the finals completely, but they finished very strongly, winning 6 of 7 and overwhelming Melbourne to win the comp.

Sadly for Brisbane, much of the core of this team is now gone and while they replaced much of the talent of these departees, the experience and consistency of these players was lacking in the new-look Broncos of 2008.

Much was made of the Saturday night binge a few weeks back, but this was somewhat a product of circumstances. Since the introduction of the Titans (and the advent of live Friday night games), Channel 9's desire for a Queensland team to be playing on Friday night has seen Brisbane become almost exclusively a Friday night team, especially at home. It seems as though the combination of free weekends and a younger squad was a factor in the much-discussed night out.

That said... many a team has had to close a relationship with alcohol over the years with this not being too detrimental to team performance. But Brisbane had a somewhat inconsistent season (even with Lockyer's ongoing struggle to regain full fitness after his knee injury): they started strongly (as they almost always have) but after their quite efficient win over the Tigers in Sydney in Round 8, they had (by my count) three efforts for the remainder of the minor premiership. Parramatta pushed them to a big effort and a late win at home in Round 12, they thrashed a brave Canberra in Round 21 and their Round 26 win over Newcastle was clinical.

Apart from these games, their season was a mix of doing-the-absolute-minimum-to-get-the-win games, winning by 10 or so points but not looking convincing games and quite a few losses (some sloppy, others to good teams).

They did look quite impressive in Week 1, abosrbing the Roosters' 40 minutes and posting the win and to take a 12-0 lead over a full-strength (in appearance anyway) Melbourne is a rare feat. But the fact they couldn't go on and defeat Melbourne probably says as much about the gutsy Storm as it did about Brisbane.

With Hunt, Lockyer, Wallace and Ennis in the all-important 1-6-7-9 positions and class and experience with the likes of Thaiday, Carroll, Sims, Parker, Kemp and Boyd, Brisbane 2008 had the look of a team that could go far, but just didn't have....something. Was Bennett's looming departure a factor (did his decreasing influence encourage poor behaviour and bad habits)? Did Lockyer's increasing on-field influence (and just-do-enough-ness) carry over to his teammates? Were they missing one or two more hardheads (what amounted to a Civoniceva for Clinton trade certainly ended up in Penrith's favour)? Or was the greater alcohol culture to blame?

Likely, each of these factors contributed to Brisbane's unrealised potentially very good season, but it's difficult to see where improvement will come from for them in the next few years. Bennett's loss is massive, it's a huge void for Ivan Henjak to step into. They also are losing Ennis, Hannant, Kemp, Carroll and Moon. They will gain a superstar in Folau, but his quiet demeanour may not be what's needed (although his size, power and tries will certainly help). Brisbane will be Friday night regulars again and with less veteran experience and structure in the club, the alcohol culture could very well worsen before it gets better. Lockyer is nearing the end of his career and they'll probably have another strong Origin/Rep contingent of players....there are too many signs of Brisbane struggling over the next couple of years.

Of course, this could just mean finishing between 6th and 8th and threatening the upper echelon teams: some teams would kill for these to be their bad seasons. Everything's relative, but the Broncos will likely start their 2nd 20 years with a bit of a rough patch.

How about Melbourne though? They looked extremely vulnerable before Saturday night and now they are without a hobbled Hoffman and fit players in C and J Smith. Their depth has been gradually thinned over the last few years and they've looked less than impressive for much of the 2nd half of the season. Sure they beat Manly, but it looked a tired effort for much of the time (surely the Storm are rapidly nearing the end of their supply of last-ditch try-saving tackles.. How about Slater's one on Hannant with 3 to go on Saturday night?!). There appears to be an attitude of "We'll be ok, Cooper will kick for Folau or Slater or Inglis will just run over some people.. if we can tackle, we'll be ok".

That said, their less-than-full pace is better than some team's full pace... but Cronulla is not just some team. Well...maybe they are by any sort of measure of skill or talent, but you'd think they will push the short-staffed tired Storm physically. It is a wonderful position for Cronulla to be in, where they have a great chance to make a grand final by physically overwhelming a team...but they are Cronulla, so anything's possible. Still...can't wait to see it.

Finally, great to see the Warriors put forth a huge effort to see off the Roosters. They got some excellent contributions from both their salt and their pepper (thanks to Mark Geyer for that one) but their dominance was such the Roosters barely saw the other half of the field in the 2nd half. And such a wonderful, full home crowd.

I can see a fired-up Manly being a bit too much for them on Saturday night (i.e. playing for more than 40 minutes), but it will take a very good Manly effort... I don't think the Warriors are finished just yet. Manly will be stiff opposition, but so to will the inconsistent Warriors' halves (at least Rovelli is not playing in this one, although he wasn't that bad since his return to the team).

Another big weekend ahead - enjoy!

Tuesday 16 September 2008

Team of the Year...plus some comments about Week 1 of the finals

A week after the Dally M's I know, but here's the Tuesday Roast Team of the Year:

Fullback: Billy Slater
Wingers: Israel Folau and Luke Covell
Centres: Greg Inglis and Brent Tate
Five-Eighth: Terry Campese
Halfback: Scott Prince
Lock: Dallas Johnson
Second-Rowers: Anthony Watmough and Sam Thaiday
Props: Petero Civoniceva and Jason Ryles
Hooker: Michael Ennis

Bench: Kurt Gidley, Anthony Laffranchi, Jeff Lima and Josh Perry
Coach: Ricky Stuart

Such an interesting Week 1 of the finals. All the outsiders (Roosters, Canberra, Dragons and Warriors) threatened to upset at various points of their games. The Warriors got up but while the other 3 lost fairly convincingly, the 3 other winners had some weaknesses exposed. Another very interesting weekend awaits!

* The Roosters threatened to overwhelm Brisbane on Friday night, but Brisbane did just enough to hang in the game...and then exploited the Roosters' inability to play 80 minutes. It was a lot like the Round 2 game between these teams - but for the Roosters, they have to be concerned they couldn't sustain their effort given the high stakes. Brisbane looked good, but there have to be doubts about them: you wouldn't expect other remaining teams to have such an inability to play 80 minutes (not to mention struggle to score tries).

As always, this game (the 4 v 5 game) has a dubious outcome vis a vis whether it was better off to win or lose this game. But given how the system works, Brisbane would much rather be at home than in Auckland (where they've always struggled) and the Roosters would have preferred to be in Sydney against a vulnerable Storm. Of course, if you think the system should be different, then there's a whole new set of circumstances...

* Both Canberra and the Dragons were thrashed on Saturday night, but made fans of their opposition rather uncomfortable early on. But to their credit, Cronulla and Manly could have folded but they used a bit of luck (unsteady execution from their opposition and some poor refereeing decisions for their opponents) and converted relatively scarce opportunities to have almost match-winning leads at half-time.

With Canberra, their effort could not be questioned, but Campese was made to tackle his backside off and pressured with the ball. His teammates appeared a bit nervous and their execution was off...that said, they had some great chances to put real scoreboard pressure on Cronulla. If Purtell takes that intercept...if that called forward pass is viewed by another set of eyes... the game could have changed so much.

Despite this, they were attacking down 14 with just over 10 to go: a try could have made for a tense finish, but Cronulla held strong and won well. There's no question Cronulla's been playing well, but they've been doing so against struggling teams of late. Now they have a week off and will play Brisbane or Melbourne. Unless these teams bash each other, you'd have to think these teams could ask Cronulla questions they haven't been asked for some time...and had trouble answering when they were asked them.

The Dragons were in an unfortunate position in that their team selection was very difficult. Should they have stuck with form players (players who've been in their lineup while they've been winning of late) or bring back now-fit players who could have been very useful against Manly (Soward, Morris, Woolford). There was good arguments for Rogers v Soward, Morris v Sailor (or someone else) and Webb/Ellis v Woolford, so Brown's selection was always going to be second-guessed if the Dragons lost.

That said, the Dragons had a number of chances and a host of attacking possession early, but never asked any serious questions of Manly's defence. They looked out of sync like Canberra did, but Canberra is a young team riddled with injury. The Dragons could not be described that way and hence should not have looked so disjointed.

Like Canberra, the Dragons were unlucky to have a try disallowed (but Gasnier's try had what looked like a forward pass, so it may well have equalled out) but Manly somehow found 20 points by half time and the Dragons had no chance after this.

* Finally the game of the weekend. Melbourne is still a very tough team to beat, but they've shown some signs of not quite being the same team over the last few months. The cumulative workload of almost 3 years of dominance, being the team everyone wants to beat and lots of rep games might be starting to take its toll. They were just off their game a bit on Sunday and the Warriors, as inconsistent as they can be and as volatile as their playmakers can be, LOVE the challenge of playing a big-name team.

But the Storm also had the issue of Dallas Johnson playing with injury and Hoffman being injured early on. They were also without Sika Manu, one of their relatively anonymous but important bench forwards. He was replaced by Scott Anderson, who is not the same type of player and the Storm probably lacked one more ferocious forward.

That said, the Warriors did their best to throw the game away. So many dumb penalties (in contrast to Melbourne's lack of subtlety when practicing their standard 'techniques' in the tackles), so many mental mistakes (such as Hohaia not expecting Cronk's 40-20 attempt late in the game). But they pushed the Storm hard and made their defence work extremely hard to keep them out...and almost looked like succeeding when the Warriors received the ball in the last 2 minutes deep in their own territory.

But Ropati, Vatuvei and Witt (all of whom had great games) had other ideas...and could have ended the Storm's dynasty. The Storm has a great record over Brisbane and teams love playing at Suncorp...but Johnson and Hoffman playing hurt is such a loss. They won at Brookvale a few weeks back, but if Orford wasn't such a spastic...Hard to see Lockyer being that bad (but Brisbane's forward pack isn't quite Manly's either).

Well done Warriors and Brisbane. The NRL is probably saying the same thing, taking finals away from apathetic Sydney, but they are highly-anticipated games in their own right. If the games can be as good as expected...another big week coming up!

Wednesday 10 September 2008

Round 26: A Diverse Mix of Types of Late-Round Teams (and How They Breathed Life into an Otherwise Dull Weekend): An End-Of-Season Roast

Despite containing only one “dead” game, most expected Round 26 to be rather dull after Friday night. This was because the Saturday and Sunday games almost all paired those already in the finals and/or fighting for higher position against those already out of contention or those with an infinitesimal chance of making the finals.

However, the doubters hadn’t counted a number of lowly teams finding the motivation to perform to end their season on a strong note. Nor had they counted on several teams with significant incentives to strive for victory being unable to play near their best. Such is the nature of the NRL in 2008, where parity is a constant ambition. This often comes at the cost of quality, but an unexpectedly interesting (and, at times, entertaining) final weekend was the result, thanks to a wide variety of collective attitudes amongst the Round 26 teams.

The first type of team witnessed in Round 26 is known as Pathetic. These teams have been eliminated from contention (or are still “mathematically” alive) and are capable of a strong effort, but this effort usually only lasts 15 to 20 minutes (unless they are playing a similarly dispirited opponent) before the better team crushes their feeble spirit.

The pride of Western Sydney — Parramatta and Penrith — is at the top of this list. Parramatta revived their finals hopes with strong wins over the Roosters and Tigers and doing the bare minimum against the Bulldogs, but as soon as the Dragons stood up to Parramatta last week and other results went against them, Parramatta wilted. They occasionally threatened the contending Warriors on Saturday night and their lone try once again teased the few loyal (but freezing) Parramatta supporters, but their lack of fight basically gifted the Warriors a finals spot.

Penrith was greeted by an almost as small crowd for their home game against Manly. Penrith have exhibited a bizarre quality in recent weeks: starting quite strongly before folding and getting thrashed. This looked like happening again on Saturday night, after Puletua scored an easy try, but Manly responded with three rather easy tries of their own.

Luckily for Penrith, Manly was lulled into replying with their own sporadic intensity and effort: Penrith sensed this and probably should have taken a second half lead against a team who urgently needed to accumulate points to try to finish with a minor premiership.

Despite some strong efforts — such as from Jarrod Sammut (whose innovation very nearly led to a spectacular grubber try) — Penrith could get no closer than 2 points to Manly. When Manly got the ball, their defensive resistance was so poor Manly eventually racked up an 18-point win. How poor was Penrith’s defence? Penrith had more possession in total than Manly, despite Manly scoring 6 tries.

A major culprit here was Michael Jennings. Jennings was a frequent target of Tuesday Roast in his rookie 2007 for his lamentable defence. His gaping mistakes appeared to be a thing of the past, but Manly exposed him painfully with 3 easy tries past him in this game.

Gold Coast and Souths are somewhat unlucky to be in Pathetic group, as they have both recorded some strong efforts despite falling out of contention, but their Round 26 performances were (understandably) poor.

The Gold Coast’s season was revived by the early return from injury of Scott Prince a few weeks ago: since then, they have been one of the NRL’s better teams in defeating the Cowboys and putting in valiant efforts in losing to Brisbane and Manly. Most expected them to thrash the downtrodden Tigers, but the minimal challenge of playing a team faring so poorly was far more difficult than it appeared. The Titans played well above their weight in troubling Brisbane and Manly; they just couldn’t put in anywhere near the requisite effort against the Tigers. As a result, they lost their FIFTH consecutive game at home: not even their slumping home form and the incentive of ending such a poor run was enough. Perhaps opposing teams are now inspired (as they are in Brisbane) by playing at a world-class stadium? The Tigers appeared as though they wouldn’t mind playing there again as soon as possible.

After Souths’ amazing run of mid-season wins came to a crushing halt with losses to the Tigers, Newcastle and then Cronulla, they quickly assumed nuisance status for the contending teams remaining on their schedule. They were able to defeat Manly and scare Canberra and the Roosters, but they were unfortunate to run into a Melbourne Storm team committed to thrashing them on Sunday night. To do this without Asostasi and Craig Wing made them almost nil chance to win: to be fair, they weren’t that bad, but they had a very difficult task.

The next group of teams could be called No Longer Pathetic: teams well out of contention, but who haven’t completely given up on their season. Well… they did give up, but it was long ago and they realised “Hey, we’re not that bad, we can have some fun and maybe win a game or two”.

After playing quite well between Rounds 19 and 22, the Tigers crumbled and a trip to the Gold Coast without a number of their good players threatened to end in a Prince-led annihilation. But the Tigers took their motivation from a number of potential influences. The Tigers clearly lifted for Brett Hodgson’s final game in the NRL, while Benji Marshall may have been impressing old school friends (or maybe French Rugby scouts??) and had a brilliant game. The warm weather and fast track also helped to bring the best out of the Tigers. It helped they were playing very flat opposition, but the Tigers certainly brought some of their best play in 2008 on Sunday.

Earlier on Sunday, the Bulldogs almost pulled off a massive upset when they put 4 tries on Canberra in under half an hour in the first half. Their season was over months ago and they have been on the end of some brutal beatings, but they’ve surprised a few teams since their season was lost, especially with their attack.

However, Canberra eventually got going. Their attack warmed up, they had a few pieces of luck but some very brittle defence saw Canberra threaten to put another thrashing on the Bulldogs. Interest changed from whether the Bulldogs could upset Canberra to whether the Bulldogs could limit Canberra to a margin of victory under 17 points (pushing Canberra into 7th position on for-and-against), but Canberra threatened to make this avenue of interest irrelevant too.

The Bulldogs hung tough though and put on several more tries. With a bit more luck, they could have push Canberra to 7th and possibly to a premature season’s end. Ultimately, they lost by 18, but are to be commended.

The Cowbores could have capitulated on a freezing wet Saturday night at Cronulla, but started the game strongly. Cronulla was able to build a significant lead, but the Cowbores incredibly put on 3 tries in quick time — even without Feral Thurston on the field — in the game’s final 15 minutes. The Cowbores didn’t really cop the thrashings the Bulldogs did, but their intensity at times was deplorable and cost them wins. Their season finished quite strongly.

Next up is the Out of Steam group. These teams started slowly (or were in a weak position in the middle to latter stages of the season) and had to be at their best for an extended period to come back into contention. However, the difficulty in sustaining strong effort in today’s NRL meant that these teams were not able to produce as expected in Round 26.

The leader of this group is Newcastle. Newcastle’s intriguing combination of awesome potential, but also a very young and inconsistent team, meant they beat some of the best teams in the NRL, but were rarely able to build on these wins and often frustratingly lost to lesser teams.

Their win over Melbourne last week was perhaps their best of the season, but it quickly became clear on Friday night (as they took on Brisbane) that they looked incapable of producing their best at this very important time. There was a strong case that the huge effort expended and the emotional night experienced against Melbourne would be quite difficult to back up from, but many visiting teams play at their best in Brisbane and Newcastle knew that a win would have ensured qualification for the finals: they STILL weren’t able to play near their best against a solid but not spectacular Brisbane team.

Canberra looked to be also Out of Steam when they followed up their gallant but impotent effort against the Cowbores last week with a terrible defensive effort against the last-placed Bulldogs early in Sunday’s game. Their run since mid-season has delivered some of the best attack in recent NRL history and a host of entertaining wins, but a massive injury count and the ongoing effort needed to keep winning after such a great run seemed to have finally caught up with Canberra.

To Canberra’s credit, they were able to come back and overhaul the Bulldogs and scored just enough points to achieve 6th position and the possibility of a double-chance in the finals. Campese further cemented his spot as Most Improved Player this season (by far) and Five-Eighth of the season (possibly) with another game-winning performance, but Canberra’s hopes for any further wins this seasons probably rest on his potentially fragile hamstring. Supporters of all teams not playing Canberra wish Campese and Canberra the best — but probably expect the worst.

Time will tell whether the Dragons belong in this group. Their poor effort and lack of preparation for the conditions on Friday night against the Roosters cost them a trip to Brisbane (where they always seem to play well) in week 1 of the finals and risked sending them to Melbourne or Cronulla (where they historically have very little success). Luckily for them, they drew Manly in week 1. Surely Dragons’ coach Nathan Brown knows his team well enough by now to know they are most likely to respond in much-win situations and wouldn’t really mind playing Manly at Brookvale — a team (and venue) they have had much success against — but they threw away a golden opportunity.

Have the Dragons run out of steam? Or did they subconsciously ease up knowing they can lift again in a much-win situation next week? We will see.

So the Dragons in Round 26 were either a member of Out of Steam or the next group: Pothole on the Road to (Potential) Success. This group also includes Manly, who have not been quite the same damaging team since their Round 22 game against Melbourne. Their plight hasn’t been helped by playing lowly teams since then (Souths, the Tigers, Gold Coast and Penrith) but they have looked far from convincing for much of this time.

While they did encounter some tricky, motivated opposition in Souths and the Gold Coast, Penrith has had major internal problems in recent weeks and was ripe for the thrashing. Yet Manly struggled mightily for defensive intensity (their calling card this season) and could have been fighting a battle just to win this game (as opposed to building up their for-and-against) if Penrith had a touch more luck early in the second half.

The fact that Manly won the game and gave the Storm a 26-point deficit to overcome in a very easy manner probably didn’t help matters. They gave the Storm a major fright 4 weeks ago and could very well win the competition, but they’ll need to rediscover their best and soon.

Cronulla is also in this group, but they can hardly be blamed. When one experiences a cold, windy and wet night at Toyota Stadium, it takes a great deal of convincing that it is located on the coast. The hardy souls who attended this game can never be called fair-weather supporters.

Unfortunately for Cronulla, their opponent on this brutally cold night was the lowly Cowbores and Cronulla was going to need a miracle from Souths to be able to advance any further in the minor premiership standings. They probably did very well to find the energy on this night to lead the Cowbores by 26 points, but their care factor finally dropped away and they let the Cowbores scored three late tries. The challenge of stopping a brilliant attacking team (Canberra) next week should ensure Cronulla’s motivation returns.

The final group of teams seen in Round 26 was the contenders who recorded a Strong Finish after Turbulence. The main members of this group are the Roosters and Brisbane: it was quite appropriate these teams played (and won well) on Friday night, as they have enjoyed similar seasons.

Both teams started quite strongly, were hit by representative commitments during mid season and have struggled for intensity and consistency through the latter part of the season. In an ideal world, these teams would be lucky to qualify for the finals (in a top-5 system), but the top 8 system meant these teams could afford to sputter along for several months after a very strong start to the season.

But, as many expected, these teams look to have (eventually) turned the corner. Both Brisbane and the Roosters were more impressive than they have been for most of the last few months on Friday night. Despite having to endure a very high error count (even allowing for the conditions) and although Anasta’s kick-off to start the game was lucky to make it 10 metres, the Roosters overcame these and played a brilliant wet-weather game on Friday night. They are still far from their best and are still struggling for confidence (as indicated by their gratuitous and excessive celebrating and high-fiving any time the Dragons made a mistake — be it forced or unforced) but their comprehensive win over the Dragons could be a springboard to September success.

Brisbane started fairly well against Newcastle on Friday night, but was unable to convert much of their dominance into points. They started similarly against the Dragons and the Dragons eventually took advantage of Brisbane’s wastefulness but Brisbane didn’t let this opportunity slip. When Karmichael Hunt attacked Mullen’s chip kick and forced Steve Simpson to commit a professional foul, Brisbane’s victory was assured.

Brisbane was probably the big winner out of Friday night. Not only did they win and win well, but they don’t have to play at home in Week 1 of the finals: in their last 7 home finals in Week 1, they have won just once. They could thrive playing at the SFS (where they famously came back against the Bulldogs two years ago).

Lastly, Melbourne belongs here. Turbulence for them is losing one or maybe two games in a few months by a combined few points: life is tough at the top. They had the distinct advantage of being on the button coming into Round 26: apologies for the poker jargon (I don’t think I’ve done this all season!) but this means Melbourne had the advantage of playing after Manly and knowing exactly what they needed to do to finish first.

In this case, it was to win by 26 points. They are renowned for their brilliant home record, but they are also just as exemplary for bouncing back off a loss. Motivation becomes increasingly more difficult to find for consistently great teams, but the chance to bounce back from their relatively poor performance in Newcastle last week, the prospect of finishing first (again) and a weakened opponent meant Souths was always in trouble.

If Melbourne can play at or near this level over the next few weeks, everyone is in trouble, but teams such as Manly, Cronulla, Brisbane and the Dragons are not without hope. History has not been too kind to teams in their third year of sustained brilliance.

A final note: if you don’t already believe in cycles in the NRL, here’s some more evidence. Thanks for watching all season long and hope to see you next year (where apparently Newcastle will win the comp and the Tigers will run last).

2001 Premiers: Newcastle > 2005 Wooden Spooners: Newcastle
2002 Premiers: Roosters > 2006 2nd last: Roosters
2003 Premiers: Penrith > 2007 Wooden Spooners: Penrith
2004 Premiers: Bulldogs > 2008 Wooden Spooners: Bulldogs
2005 Premiers: Wests Tigers > 2009 Wooden Spooners: ?

Tuesday 2 September 2008

Round 25: Goodbyes...and Hellos

Apart from the occasional one or two for a joint-venture team in previous weeks, Round 25 brought on the start of the annual Goodbye season to a host of players (of varying abilities and ages).

However, there were Goodbyes for more than just departing players and for every Goodbye, there has to be a Hello (this point was raised approximately 28653865876347637673 times after the departure of Sonny Bill Williams).

Without further ado, here’s the rundown of Round 25 — in terms of Goodbyes and Hellos.

Manly v. Gold Coast

Goodbye: to Steve Menzies. He said Goodbye to Cliffy Lyons about 10 years ago and Hello to carving out a reputation as a champion player free from one of the best ball-players in the modern era.

But Manly said Goodbye to Beaver and Hello (in a way) to Ben Kennedy. Since Kennedy’s retirement at the end of 2006, Manly has improved markedly. While Kennedy’s effort was always huge, Manly of 2005 and 2006 was a team with relatively little structure and often sought to make the huge tackle or hit-up to fire themselves up when their initial fire had waned. Manly of 2007 and (most of) 2008 have been far more consistent. Des Hasler quietly upgraded the skill level throughout his team (so they didn’t have to totally rely on huge efforts every week to win games) even without Michael Monaghan.

So it was somewhat of a surprise to see them return to their Kennedy style of play against the Gold Coast last night, but the Titans have to be commended for the resistance (despite their semi-final hopes crushed by previous results). Manly was obviously primed for a huge effort for the departing Menzies and deviated from their emotional consistency of the last two seasons when they ran into such a committed Titans team.

The final margin of 18 did flatter Manly somewhat: much like the previous game between these teams, Manly’s gutsy defence and some strokes of luck with the ball blew the game open. So while the Titans said Goodbye (officially) to their semi-final chances, surely their resolve and talent will allow them to say Hello to September rugby league in 2009.

New Zealand v. Penrith

Goodbye: to Ruben Wiki, Logan Swann and Wairangi Koopu. It’s hard to believe Swann and Koopu aren’t both about 35 years old: they seem to have played for the Warriors forever, while Wiki is not far behind Menzies in terms of tenure in the NRL.

The Warriors also said Goodbye to the rainy conditions which have been present at almost every home game this season and Hello to a highly entertaining style of play which would not have looked out of place on a highlights tape from 2002 or 2003.

They led Penrith 30 to 4 at half-time, but Penrith was the better team for the first 15 minutes or so. Penrith’s sizeable pack (even without potential Goodbye-ee Frank Pritchard) was on top and they had several good chances. After a far-too-long unforced absence, Penrith said Hello to prodigious talent Jarrod Sammut again and looked a more threatening team than they have for many weeks.

However, Penrith made Sammut say Hello to defending at the right centre position: something he’d clearly not done before. Consequently, Penrith said Goodbye to the Warriors on the scoreboard as the Warriors frequently attacked Penrith down Sammut and Michael Gordon’s side of the field.

To Penrith’s credit, they didn’t fold completely and gave the Warriors a few uneasy moments in the second half, but the Warriors composed themselves (especially the rather volatile – to put it mildly – Wade McKinnon) and in doing so said Goodbye to Penrith’s season.

Bulldogs v. Brisbane

Goodbye: to Steve Folkes, Corey Hughes and also to the Bulldogs’ unusual but traditional method of player recruitment/retention. While the Bulldogs have stayed within the family for the next coach, the loss of a host of star players in recent years for a number of reasons will inevitably see the Bulldogs become just another team. Another team that places more emphasis on feasting on the scraps of those over the salary cap rather than focusing on junior development. Another team that is wary of putting too much effort into bringing juniors through the ranks because of the diminishing returns to this effort (due to the salary cap but also because of the dying trait of loyalty and as the game increasingly favours athleticism more than experience). And…another team that doesn’t systematically cheat (this point was conveniently glossed over in interviews with Steve Folkes over the weekend).

After North Queensland’s win on Saturday night, the Bulldogs seem destined to say Hello to the wooden spoon (legitimately) for the first time in over 40 years. The Bulldogs will probably rise again, but their 40-year dynasty since Peter Moore took over in the late 1960s is now over. It’s been dying for perhaps 6 or so years now, but events of 2008 have killed it off. They’ll never win a competition, they’ll never threaten to win one, they’ll never be the same again.

That said, they are saying Hello to some rather good players for next season, including Brisbane’s Michael Ennis. Ennis said Goodbye to playing in this game due to the ‘flu and Brisbane missed his energy. Periodically they lifted and overwhelmed the gallant but nowhere-near-good-enough Bulldogs, but one wonders if they’ve said Goodbye to any hopes of premiership success this season due to their indifferent form over the last 3 months. Sure, they still have a lot of experience and talent, but turning up for an important game and playing at the necessary level is not like flicking a switch (for most teams anyway).

Sydney Roosters v. Souths

The Roosters have also discovered this fact in recent weeks, but they looked to have discovered the secret to say Hello to a strong motivated effort in the first half against Souths. They definitely said Hello to a unique new strategy on Friday night: scoring tries without resorting to kicks. Souths was probably as shocked as everyone else and the Roosters realised attack isn’t as difficult as they’d made it appear in recent weeks.

The Roosters jumped to a 22-nil lead but, as they have in almost every game this season, they said Goodbye to hopes of a sustained effort over 80 minutes. Souths said Goodbye to hopes of success in 2008 many weeks ago, but have enjoyed saying Hello to teams with ambitions of semi-final rugby league with a carefree attitude and some of the game’s most exciting players (in Chris Sandow and Isaac Luke).

While Souths was given a significant leg-up back into the game from Roosters’ mistakes, their enthusiasm and energy made this one of the games of the season as Souths almost erased the Roosters’ lead. But for a conversion attempt that was a few metres or so to the left and a 40-20 kick whose actual path evaded eyes of official on the ground and up above, Souths may have stolen the win here and said Goodbye to the Roosters’ top-4 chances. Thanks to their efforts over the game’s first 45 or so minutes and the inconsistency of teams just below them, the Roosters can right the wrongs of the last 2 months and secure a home game in Week 1 of the finals with a big effort this Friday night. They’re overdue for one.

St George Illawarra v. Parramatta

Goodbye: to the potential-loaded disappointment in the Red V we’ve come to know and love…? Until this team is celebrating on the first Sunday in October, there’s always a chance for Dragons’ memories of haunting losses to re-emerge in the present-day players, but maybe – just maybe – the Dragons and their very talented team is saying Hello to their potential in Nathan Brown’s final days as coach.

The Dragons were clinical in thrashing Parramatta on Saturday night. Newcastle’s upset win over Melbourne meant this was Goodbye for Parramatta: it seems so sudden. After 6 months of ongoing discussion about Parramatta and how they will come good soon, come good for the finals (which they were always going to qualify for)….within 2 hours on Saturday night, it was over.

One wonders if Parramatta knew the urgency of the situation after Newcastle’s win. If they did know, they gave few signs of showing it. When Jarryd Hayne meekly put the ball out across his own dead-ball line at about the 20-minute mark of the game, his brief Hellos for season 2008 (maybe 1 game in 10 – apart from their games against the Tigers) were finally replaced by a Goodbye, accompanied by the standard hang-dog expression on his face.

But enough about the bad news Eels. The Dragons might have left their run late (it’s almost 5 seconds to midnight if Brown’s coaching tenure at the Dragons was one day) and may not win the ultimate prize before Brown says Goodbye, but there’s no team in the NRL who wants to say Hello to the Dragons in the month ahead if the Dragons are on their game.

Newcastle v. Melbourne

Goodbye: to Danny Buderus, one of the best hookers in this era and maybe the last hooker who will be a huge success without any sort of kicking game (although his replacement, Isaac De Gois, has spent the last two seasons doing a fairly good Buderus impression for Cronulla).

While Newcastle has struggled for consistency over 2008, they’ve regularly lifted for big games. They would have said Goodbye to 2008 if they couldn’t win this game, so the combination of the big-name opponent, the desperate need for a win and the celebration of Buderus’ career was always going to be difficult for the Storm to overcome.

To Melbourne’s credit though, even when they appear vulnerable, they never fall too far behind and when Inglis swooped on a lazy pass for the intercept, Melbourne only trailed by 2 points. The game was tied when Melbourne’s lethal Cronk to Folau combination struck and Melbourne’s ability in close games looked sure to get them home.

However, they hardly deserved it, so when Scott Dureau kicked a 40-20, Matt Hilder set up a try for Jesse Royal and Dureau extended the lead to 7 not long after, it looked like the right result would happen. Newcastle did hold on, but not without some anxious moments after the Storm moved to within 1 point.

The full-time whistle brought rapturous celebration and other results meant Newcastle is a very good chance of saying Hello to the top 8 after a two-year absence. You could even saying Newcastle is within….spitting distance of the finals. Even if Hilder did spit at Anthony Quinn, he should escape sanction due to Quinn being extremely deserving of such treatment. For Quinn to take offence to anything short of attempted murder on the field is nothing short of hypocritical.

North Queensland v. Canberra

Goodbye: firstly to North Queensland’s pathetic, boring style of play. Sensing a vulnerable and weakened opponent but also a chance to dump the wooden spoon, the Cowbores went away from their rather predictable and quite impotent side-to-side play and instead attacked Canberra through the middle. They were not quite on their game otherwise they may have put 40 on the brave but under-strength Raiders, but the Cowbores showed signs they will be back in 2009.

While other results (and their upcoming schedule) meant Canberra have almost certainly said Hello to a well-earned top-8 spot, their hopes of progressing any further looked to be significantly reduced when it became apparent Terry Campese was playing injured. While the extent of Campese’s injury is still uncertain (was he badly injured but playing because Canberra had no-one else?), Canberra was a shadow of what they had been over the last 2 months on Saturday night with Campese as a passenger.

If Campese is unable to perform over the next two (or more) weeks, Canberra can say Goodbye to being anything more than 2008’s feel good story.

Wests Tigers v. Cronulla

Goodbye: to Brett Hodgson. His toughness and leadership will be missed, but has there been a better ball player (apart from Darren Lockyer) at the full back position in the modern era? While the final score gave little indication, the Tigers did give a far greater effort than they had in recent weeks for Hodgo’s final game at Leichhardt.

Unfortunately, they gave Cronulla far too much ball and too many attacking opportunities in the game’s first 20 minutes and lacked some finishing and some luck when trying to chase down the Sharks. Benji Marshall tried hard — if only he could have said Hello again to several of the highlight-reel plays he produced against Cronulla from 2005 — but ultimately was little more than a one-man show.

Meanwhile, Cronulla has probably waved Goodbye to Greg Bird, but showed they could still be a real threat to say Hello into September and October. Brett Seymour won man of the match, but Fraser Anderson was far more pivotal to Cronulla’s success. The wide-running back-rower dominated the weak edge defence of the Tigers.

On that note, it’s Goodbye to Round 25 and Hello to Round 26 and the final Tuesday Roast for the season – see you next week.

Tuesday 26 August 2008

Round 24: A special Roast from Bruce McAvaney live in Bay-jing

Hello and welcome to all participants of the Tuesday Roast NRL tipping competition. The Olympic Games may have come to a close, but I’ve been given the honour of presenting this week’s Tuesday Roast and let me tell you I couldn’t be any prouder right now.

We’ve seen many an Australian hero in Bay-jing over the last two weeks, but the NRL provides gold medal performances each and every week: just witness Darren Lockyer’s effort on Friday night in Brisbane. Aww gee, what a special effort that was, getting up out of his sickbed to lead his team to an incredible win in Golden Point. It reminded me so much of the great Michael Jordan, who put his Chicago Bulls on his flu-ridden shoulders.......

.....in the 1997 NBA Finals. I remember the first time I saw the great man play: it was the Los Angeles Olympics of 1984 and even back then you could tell he was special. This was before the Dream Team concept mind you, but aww gee what an athlete. The ’84 American team was renowned as one of the all-time great pre-Dream Team lineups, with Jordan, the behemoth Patrick Ewing and the sharpshooter Chris Mullin, all of whom featured on the original Dream Team in Barcelona in 1992.

So anyway I’ll take you through some of the gold medal efforts in the NRL from Round 24, but the similarities between the NRL and the Olympics don’t end there. Both seem to enjoy scandals and drama and both have elements many want to see removed: I’ll get to both of those a bit later. We also can’t forget that many Australians who watch both have a healthy amount of xenophobia and both currently have a strong dislike of their British counterparts (and both are trying to use Britain as an excuse to get more funding).

But enough of the bad news about the NRL and the Olympics: why dwell when there’s so many good news stories in the NRL’s Centenary season. That reminds me…the Centenary Olympics in Atlanta. Aww gee it was hot, but you forgot all about the heat when Michael Johnson was racing…..

Where was I? The good news stories of the NRL and Brisbane Gold Coast on Friday night. Suncorp Stadium – the old Lang Park – what an amazing ground it is, but more importantly for NRL followers, almost every game played there is top-shelf. This is only the Titans’ second season in the NRL but they have a wonderful rivalry with their older brothers up the road in Brisbane. Brisbane started strongly when Joel Clinton barged over, but Gold Coast dominated the rest of the first half. Can I just say I love Preston Campbell? Sure, he’s no Cathy, but he’s not far off. Preston had a wonderful first half, but he backed up in the second with a broken jaw. Aww gee, what courage, what toughness!

But Brisbane have become experts over the years and holding out the best an opponent has to offer and then coming back with their best and this game was no different. Lockyer guided the ship around but he had important help from Admirals Wallace and Ennis and Gold Coast was sinking fast. Somehow they found a life raft in the form of a surprise try and the game was tied at 20-all.

With under 10 minutes left, the field goal shootout began and gee three of the game’s best battled it out. Lockyer, who won the corresponding match last season, Prince and Rogers (with his surprisingly long boot): with a top-4 spot on the line for Brisbane and death staring Gold Coast in the face if they lose this game, a battle for the ages loomed!! Up stepped Lockyer, who gave Brisbane the lead, but a strip by Rogers gave Gold Coast one more chance and Prince took it to golden point!

Unfortunately for the plucky Titans and heroic little Preston, Lockyer won the game for Brisbane by stepping past the rushing defence and setting up the try for Eastwood. Two years running for Brisbane and Lockyer winning this fixture, but I couldn’t help shedding a tear for Preston and the Gold Coast, so gutsy and just falling short.

The other Friday night game didn’t have the dramatic quota as seen in Brisbane, but aww gee, if you wanted two teams skilled in the much-maligned arts of overly physical play and cross-kicking (a new event to the NRL), then you came to the right place.

The Roosters have one of the biggest packs in the NRL but they were no match for Cronulla’s size plus enthusiasm. Their cross-kicking attack and defence was also no match for Cronulla, so the Roosters were lucky to reach zero.

Cronulla is also world class at killing the game and taking penalty goals. Luke Covell, he’s no Olympic sprinter (if anything he’s more of a shot putter), but he fits Cronulla’s game plan to a tee.

The Saturday night games saw a double-header at the Olympic Stadium in Sydney. Aww gee, so many memories. And I’m sure that’s what Wests Tigers supporters are thinking now, because they wouldn’t really want to remember too much about their embarrassing display in this game. Manly took a while to get going though so the scoreboard remained close for most of the first half, but Beaver Menzies and Brett Stewart led Manly on a point-scoring blitz. Such a tragedy that Beaver has been forced to ply his trade in England next season, but Stewart could very well overtake him at the top of the try-scoring list by the time his career is over. He may not have a classic running style, but they said that about Michael Johnson too didn’t they? Gee I love watching Stewart and Menzies play…and Glenn Stewart and who could forget the Barry Dawson look-a-like himself in Luke Williamson? David Williams too (who’s keeping Michael Bani out of the team)… I love them all actually.

Next up it was Parramatta and the Bulldogs. Now I know the Eels cop a lot from their own supporters (and other supporters) for not playing at their best all the time, but to the critics I ask this? Do you perform your best at your job all the time? I thought not. You cruise and lift when needed. I’d go so far as to call this the Australian way. You may think I’m an exception to this rule, but covering every Olympics since 1980, it’s even been tough for me to get excited at some events in Bay-jing (I really do miss Heike Dreschler and Sergei Bubka you know). And when the AFL’s ludicrous scheduling gives me a Friday night game between teams 10 and 13 to call, who could blame me for sounding less than…special?

So I can relate to Parramatta and their lackadaisical attitude for most of the time. Some said Parramatta should have thrashed the Bulldogs, but they didn’t need to, did they? They stayed close enough, lifted when needed and won by more than enough. There are plenty of other teams who can’t peak at the right time: I wouldn’t like to be them right now.

The final Saturday night game was a tragedy. Sure, Newcastle blew North Queensland off the park in the first half to do enough for a solid win, but Danny Buderus’ bicep injury…what a tragic way for such a wonderful player to end his career. At his peak, he was the Scottie Pippen to Andrew Johns’ Michael Jordan, but his contribution after Johns’ retirement to Newcastle was even more important. When Brian Smith was tearing down the Knights to rebuild them, Buderus led the team and kept them solid amidst growing criticism, even from local Novocastrians. Now Newcastle is on the road to contending for a premiership in the next few years and Buderus played a vital bridging role.

Sunday’s first game was at the Olympic Stadium again, but there were fewer people at this game than lining up for food on Cathy’s special night in 2000. That said, both teams enjoyed boisterous support from a small band of loyal supporters and an interesting game ensued. Canberra started quite strongly (as they have during their recent amazing run) but Souths dominated the final 25 minutes of the first half and threatened to score their second straight high-scoring win over a top-8 opponent.

But after half-time, the Canberra juggernaut re-emerged and their crusade to bring long-range tries back into rugby league continued. As Colin Best strode out like a gazelle and ran over the top of defenders, I couldn’t help but see him in the green and gold on the track: what an athlete he is. Souths’ defence held him in the first half, but when Simpson showed Best the sideline early in the second half, Best took it and scored. David Milne is another amazing athlete (in the mould of Billy Slater) for Canberra; incredibly he’s only getting regular action because of Canberra’s injury crisis, but when Campese put him into a gap later in the second half, Milne sprinted away for an easy try.

Speaking of Canberra and the Olympics, you wouldn’t be surprised if the drug testers were keen to have a word with Campese and Best, would you? Both had shown signs of class in their careers so far, but they have been at (or very near) the best in the NRL since mid-season in their positions. Gee aren’t the Raiders a wonderful story though? Unfortunately they suffered two more season-ending injuries on Sunday, but they will be everyone’s second-favourite team for the remainder of the season (they’ll be my equal-favourite team – with every other team – though).

Sunday afternoon got even better when we thrashed New Zealand! The Warriors, with one or two exceptions, looked flat against a surprisingly sharp St George Illawarra at Wollongong on Sunday afternoon. If it wasn’t for Wade McKinnon, Brent Tate and maybe Steve Price, the Warriors would have been blown away. The Warriors are one of my favourite teams, but they’re crying out for a halfback. Someone like Lockyer, Preston or Campese maybe. They had the effort but their execution let them down terribly. Only McKinnon’s nose for offloads kept them in the game in the first half.

Unfortunately for the Warriors, the Dragons built upon the promising signs they showed against Brisbane last week. Their attack was crisp, their use of the inside ball confused the Warriors’ defence, but most importantly, the Dragons’ big 3 of Gasnier, Cooper and Ryles (ably facilitated by the very underrated Dean Young) were all at their best: a key point approaching the business end of the season. Aww gee, the match-up between these Dragons and Parramatta in Round 25 – two of the best at not playing to their potential, but lifting for big games – could be a beauty!

Finally, last night’s game saw Melbourne barely get out of first gear but still destroy Penrith. Craig Bellamy – what an incredibly driven coach he is. Even this late in the season and facing a potentially dangerous team such as Penrith, Bellamy’s team took care of business in an efficient, disciplined manner. Bellamy’s authority, control, discipline and motivation remind me of coaches from the former Communist countries, such as gymnastics coaches of the Soviet Union and East Germany. Their subjects give a rigid, robot-like impression and are not very popular but both are extremely effective at dominating their sport.

That’s all from Bay-jing and from Round 24 of the NRL. A big thanks to Bruce (but more so Rob Sitch and the Champagne Comedy of the Late Show circa 1992): see you next week.

Tuesday 19 August 2008

Round 23: The Roundup about Nothing

With Season 2008 winding down towards the finals, it’s no surprise to see emotions rising across the league. The parity throughout the NRL, the increasing importance of refereeing decisions and the vast financial difference between winning several finals games and missing September play entirely mean plenty of unhappy teams after each round. Even teams who win at this point in the season can feel pangs of frustration: if only we’d played this well for most of the season!

Most of the losing teams (and several of the winning ones) from Round 23 could therefore probably use a good laugh to forget about their inconsistency, the fact they started their season about 3 months after most teams, their bad luck, their embarrassing effort or their capitulation to a bogey team. Rugby League is an intense game, played mostly by those with sub-normal intelligence and has lurched from one crisis to another over much of its 100-year history. Yet if you look closely enough, there’s plenty of laughter to be had.

Without further ado, here’s a breakdown of each game in Round 23 with the assistance of Seinfeld.

Brisbane v. St George Illawarra

“GEORGE: So, attractive one day - not attractive the next?

JERRY: Have you come across this?

GEORGE: Yes, I am familiar with this syndrome -- she's a two-face.”

The Dragons have long been notorious for losing (or, at the very least, performing poorly) in games they are expected to win, while winning in games when few, if any, pundits give them a chance. In this season alone, they’ve beaten the Roosters and Manly as heavy outsiders, but lost to the Tigers (twice), the Cowboys and Canberra (twice) all as strong favourites.

On Friday night, the Dragons – losers of 4 of their past 5 games – faced an almost must-win situation against Brisbane. Brisbane was missing important players in Hunt, Hodges, Carroll and Eastwood, but the Dragons were arguably missing more with Poore, Soward, Morris, Woolford, Creagh and Setu all absent.

Soward’s absence meant former Rabbitoh Ben Rogers came into the side. Rogers has long been lauded as a player with potential, but there is a gaping chasm between the best and worst of his game: both parts were seen on Friday night. From early on, it was apparent the Dragons’ effort was there, but their combinations – in both attack and defence – were off mostly because of the number of key players missing.

Brisbane repelled the Dragons’ early attack and looked sharp in replying with two tries of their own. They probably should have extended their lead but the Dragons hung on and replied at the other end. Actually it was more of a roar: Wendell Sailor’s post-try scream and spike of the ball was the catalyst for a remarkable comeback.

For a 25-minute period after Sailor’s try, the Dragons lifted considerably, but most importantly, they got Mark Gasnier and Matt Cooper heavily involved. Wendell Sailor may be past his prime and a shadow of what he once was, but if his verve can inspire a previously insipid Gasnier, then Sailor’s signing will be money extremely well spent.

Brisbane recovered from the shock of the Dragons’ onslaught, came back into the game themselves and hence gave us another Suncorp Stadium classic. Brisbane’s cause was aided considerably by a host of Dragons’ mistakes (including Rogers’ horrible midfield bomb with 10 to go) and an amazing try to Moon gave Brisbane one last chance at victory.

Ultimately, however, it was another Dragons’ win against the odds, and another Dragons’ result in line with past trends. This year, they’ve beaten Brisbane (twice), Manly and Newcastle: teams (and venues) they’ve owned over the years, but lost to Canberra, the Tigers and Cronulla for the umpteenth time since the merger took place. What a weird, strange but always entertaining team the Dragons are.

Speaking of one team dominating another, Parramatta had won 7 straight games over the Wests Tigers coming into last night’s game, but punters were split as to what would happen in this one. Parra’s win over the Roosters last week could have been a stepping stone towards a belated improvement or a once-off in a highly disappointing season, while the Tigers were coming off a largely indifferent few weeks and are not the same team at night, but impressed mightily in recent victories over the Dragons and Souths.

Whichever team turned up and wanted a vital 2 points would have a huge leg-up towards victory here. Disappointingly, for supporters of both the Tigers and of a competitive contest, Parramatta’s stranglehold over the Tigers is now stronger than ever before.

Parramatta v. Wests Tigers

LEVITAN (to George): You can't win. You can't beat me. That's why I'm here and you're there. Because I'm a winner. I'll always be a winner and you'll always be a loser.

A local derby. A very important game (given the upcoming draw) for finals contention. A game to stand up to your tormentor. The Tigers had so many reasons to – at the very least – put in a huge effort in this game, but Parramatta dominated them – again. Once they saw the Tigers’ defence wasn’t looking to hit hard and once they saw the Tigers’ defence would allow them to offload almost at will, Parramatta knew it was only a matter of time before the tries would come. Throw in a few Tigers mistakes and some penalties as the frustration mounted and the game was basically over inside 20 minutes.

It could be said that Parramatta was lucky in some parts of the game, but Parramatta made most of their luck. The botched last-tackle play where Hayne had to get a kick away hurriedly was followed up by a great chase to pin Hodgson in his in-goal area, while Hindmarsh’s try in the first half was the result of a much greater effort on the part of the Parramatta chasers than the Tigers defenders.

In fact, the luckiest play of the first half was the Tigers’ lone try, when the wind caught a Finch bomb and took it many metres backwards. The ball was kept in by Williams but the opportunistic Benji Marshall was in the right place at the right time to keep the Tigers (just) in the contest.

When the Tigers were the first to score in the second half, the deficit was just 10 points with over 25 minutes left, but a mistake – from the ensuing kick-off no less – led to the next Parramatta try and certain defeat.

The Tigers’ best hope might be to spike Parramatta’s drinks (like George did in the above Seinfeld episode) before their next game. Alternatively, they could try something revolutionary (like discussing a basic strategy to limit Parramatta’s strengths and working on it in prior games) and hope that works.

This defeat virtually put an end to the Tigers’ hopes of playing into September. Instead of being remembered as the innovators of this era, their place in history now risks being a trivia question, an asterisk or a bizarre footnote: which premiership winner never made the finals before or after their only triumph?

While Parramatta used their game against the Roosters as a springboard to a top-shelf effort, it became clear on Friday night that the Roosters’ loss to Parramatta exposed a number of faults that received an 80-minute examination by a typically intense Melbourne Storm.

Melbourne v. Sydney Roosters

FRANK: Let me understand, you got the hen, the chicken and the rooster. The rooster goes with the chicken. So, who's having sex with the hen?

GEORGE: Why don't we talk about it another time?

FRANK: But you see my point here? You only hear of a hen, a rooster and a chicken. Something's missing!

MRS. ROSS: Something's missing all right.

When the Roosters defeated Melbourne in Round 3, the Roosters’ size and intensity saw them dominate a Melbourne team coming off a loss (Melbourne hadn’t lost two in a row for two years). Melbourne was kept scoreless for over 70 minutes in this game and rarely had any field position to do anything about this.

The Roosters would have seen Manly threaten to do a similar job on Melbourne last week, but they have largely been in a slump since the conclusion of State of Origin: this was shown clearly when they failed to inflict defeat on Parramatta last week. Parramatta has talent, but a forward pack as loaded as the Roosters should never lose the battle to a pack such as Parra’s.

There was only a small chance of the Roosters turning this around in just 5 days and this chance fell to zero after the first play of the game. Melbourne didn’t score, but they showed this game meant a great deal to them. Any chance of a letdown after their Origin-like game against Manly was shot down in seconds.

As any champion team will tell you, as the wins pile up, it becomes more difficult to summon the necessary motivation to keep on winning. When the Storm spread the ball wide from the opening kick-off, they showed they had turned up to defeat the Roosters (by making a mockery of their compressed defensive line), but also to make a point to Channel 9’s Peter Sterling.

Sterling called Melbourne “boring” earlier this year for their rigid structure and their lack of passing when in their own half. Never mind that this is the most effective way to play the game under the current rules (unless you’re blessed with a highly-skilled and stable playing roster; this is a pipedream under the current Salary Cap). The Storm refuted Sterling’s criticisms in word previously but in action on Friday night. To Sterling’s credit, he immediately praised the Storm for their efforts.

Melbourne did well to hold out the Roosters’ early attack and responded with 20 unanswered points in the remainder of the first half. This was enough for victory as the Roosters rarely threatened to even cross the line, let alone look like winning the game (although the Roosters were unlucky to lose Aubusson to concussion and not have a recognised dummy-half on the bench to replace him).

While Melbourne backed up well from a bruising Melbourne v. Manly game at Brookvale, the same could not be said of Manly. For the second straight year, they slumped to an unexpected defeat after playing Melbourne at Brookvale. Despite having the prize of a minor premiership to play for, they failed to turn up with their usual intensity and decided to take their chances in a high-scoring shootout: not many teams with premiership ambitions take this route on a regular basis.

South Sydney v. Manly

GEORGE: Your wake up guy asked you out?

ELAINE: Yeah, I've never seen him but I feel like we have this weirdly intimate relationship. I mean, I'm lying in bed, I'm wearing my nightie,

JERRY: I don't know. Blind date?

ELAINE: What? You're going to go out with my cousin Holly. You've never met her.

JERRY: Yeah, but I've seen pictures of her.

ELAINE: At least I've spoken to my guy. You're going out on a deaf date.

JERRY: I think I'd rather go out on a deaf date than a blind date. The question is whether you'd rather date the blind or the deaf.

ELAINE: Ah, . . .

GEORGE: Now you're off on a topic.

JERRY: You know, I think, I would rather date the deaf.

ELAINE: Uh hu.

JERRY: Because I think the blind would probably be a little messier around the house. And let’s face it they're not going to get all the crumbs. I'd possibly be walking around with a sponge.

GEORGE: You see I disagree. I'd rather be dating the blind. You know you could let the house go. You could let yourself go. A good looking blind woman doesn't even know you're not good enough for her.

ELAINE: I think she'd figure it out.

Seinfeld often featured silly discussions like this. Every so often, they can be fun to watch or partake in, but they’re generally quite unsatisfying.

High-scoring shootouts are the silly discussions of the NRL. Once upon a time, Souths never came close to being involved in a shoot-out, but they’ve been involved in 7 legitimate shootouts since April. Can’t you just see Hegarty and JT discussing how you must have a buffer zone for your parents, or Hegarty not reacting well to suggestions from JT, Vagana and Lana about his “jerk-store” comeback??

Manly is capable of scoring a lot of points, but this usually results from physical domination rather than a back-and-forth shootout. To keep the metaphor going, it’s impossible to imagine Hasler laughing at anything.

Once it became clear Manly hadn’t turned up, Souths clearly relished the prospect of another shootout. They even inexplicably let Manly right back into the game (even after Matai was sin-binned) and gave up the lead. But once Souths is in shootout mode, this doesn’t matter, and Sandow and Merritt were pivotal in yet another Souths’ shootout win.

While Souths love the shootout, Cronulla continues to take their chances in low-scoring grinds. This worked very well for most of the season, but they have struggled somewhat in recent weeks. Cronulla blames the referees or injuries or the weather when it’s clear they can’t score enough points. They’ve had to play their backside off all season long just to compete and they don’t have the extra gear good teams have at this time of year.

New Zealand v. Cronulla

George: Did she do it on purpose?

Jerry: It was my fault, I told her the wrong door.

George: I was supposed to see her. She wasn't supposed to see me.

Jerry: So what?

George: Well ordinarily I wouldn't mind. But...

Jerry: But...

George: Well I just got back from swimming in the pool. And the water was cold...

Jerry: Oh... You mean... shrinkage.

George: Yes. Significant shrinkage!

Jerry: So you feel you were short changed.

George: Yes! I mean, if she thinks that's me she's under a complete misapprehension. That was not me, Jerry. That was not me.

In short (no pun intended), Cronulla is making excuses for poor performance when it is a historical fact they can’t produce at this time of year. The Warriors are a tough team to play in Auckland, especially when facing high-flying opposition, but this game was tight enough and the Warriors made more than enough mistakes for Cronulla to come back into the game, but it never looked like taking place.

Just a few weeks back, the Cowbores v. Titans game seemed certain to be a great game for anyone who needed a good reason to catch up on sleep. Scott Prince and Feral Thurston were out with long-term injury and both teams struggled mightily to find anyone to adequately replace them.

North Queensland v. Gold Coast

Jerry: Oh, hi Gennice.

Gennice: Hi Jerry.

Jerry: This is George, this is Kramer.

Gennice: Nice to meet you.

Jerry: Playing today?

Gennice: No. I'm on the bench today.

Jerry: They really stick to that understudy rule.

Kramer: So (Bette’s) coming?

Gennice: Oh, yeah, she'll be here. . . .(DROPS HOT DOG) Oh no, my frankfurter, my frankfurter fell (sob sob sob sob) . It was really good. I can't believe that I dropped it. (sob sob sob sob)

Jerry: It's okay…it's just a hot dog, (still sobbing) everything is going to be okay.

Gennice: No it (sob) was really good.

While no-one accused the girlfriends of Travis Burns and Josh Lewis of taking Feral and Prince out of action, Burns and Lewis cry a lot, have been major disappointments and are about as popular as Bette Midler’s understudy in the above quote.

This game became far more promising once it was confirmed both Feral and Prince were going to play and an entertaining game ensued. Gold Coast threatened to run away with the game at times, but the desperate Cowbores hung on and reined in Titans’ leads on several occasions. Ultimately, Gold Coast held on. They may still make the finals but they may find more solace in being a spoiler in the next few weeks.

Canberra and Newcastle were among the upper echelon of teams form-wise before their game on Sunday, but their precarious ladder position meant a loss for either team could have severely reduced the odds of a finals berth. Newcastle started slowly, but they trailed by only 4 late in the first half, despite too many mistakes and errors. Buderus implored his team to stay calm, stop giving the ball and field position away and they could come back, but his efforts could not prevent an extremely frustrating afternoon for Newcastle.

Canberra v. Newcastle

Estelle: You're not gonna give away that waterpik!

Frank: You wanna bet? Serenity now, serenity now!

Lloyd: You know, you should tell your dad that 'serenity now' thing doesn't work. It just bottles up the anger, and eventually, you blow.

George: What do you know? You were in the nut house.

Lloyd: What do you think put me there?

Buderus knew the importance of this game but Newcastle could not help themselves: they continued to give away penalties and the ball. When the white-hot Campese helped create two tries before half-time, Canberra was going to be very difficult to run down. Newcastle didn’t quite need to be committed, but they weren’t far off: there were signs that they were troubling the Raiders, but Canberra again won well due to Newcastle’s ill-discipline.

Lastly, Penrith thrashed the Bulldogs on Saturday night. The Bulldogs again capitulated on the field (which was understandable) but they also capitulated off the field by caving in to $BW and Mundine and receiving what will end up being a pittance from them. One can’t help wondering though if the Bulldogs were overjoyed at the prospect of getting ANYTHING out of Mundine at all that they jumped at his first pathetic offer.

Penrith v. Bulldogs

Kramer: It was a great lunch, Jackie. Thanks.

Jackie: It's a little puzzling we haven't gotten that offer yet.

Kramer: Mrs. Wilkie, from the tobacco company called me. We had a little pow-wow.

Jackie: A pow-wow? Who told you to have a pow-wow? I didn't tell you to have pow-wow.

Kramer: She made an offer. I took it.

Jackie: How much?

Kramer: No, no, no. There was no money.

Jackie: No money? Then what'd we get?

Kramer: Check it out. (They see a Marlboro man billboard with Kramer on it)

Jackie: This is the most public yet of my many humiliations.

See you next week.

Wednesday 13 August 2008

Round 22: Where the NRL's dream (almost) came true

In recent years, the NRL has become increasingly proud of the parity across the competition. The variety amongst premiership winners, the competitiveness amongst lower-ranked teams and the difficulty for higher-ranked teams to dominate are now standard. While there is little doubt the more even competition has come at the expense of across-the-board quality and significantly diminished the incentive to innovate (the Wests Tigers are a beacon of hope here), the latter minor competition rounds have become increasingly interesting in recent years. Since 2005, this has been seen not only with the high number of games with ramifications on the ultimate makeup and order of the top 8, but also where teams either out of contention or hanging on to the faintest of hopes can inflict a blow on higher-up teams.

The games in Round 22 gave us an intriguing mix of matchups between highly-ranked teams, between teams vying for top 8 spots, between highly-ranked teams and lower teams but where the lower teams had strong reasons for hope and lastly there was the wooden-spoon "battle" which was fairly entertaining (although, at times, this was unintentional).

The game of the round saw Manly take on Melbourne. Much was made of Manly's excellent record over Melbourne at Brookvale Oval, but their wins over Melbourne there in the last 2 years came before a State of Origin (where Melbourne was without several of their key players) in 2006 and after a State of Origin (which saw many of Melbourne's key players having to back up) in 2007. This time round, Melbourne was at full strength. They seemed to have passed their annual post-Origin slump (i.e a loss) and were no doubt motivated by the possibility of winning at such a tough venue.

Meanwhile, Manly had to make a stand. Melbourne thrashed them in last year's grand final and earlier this year: they needed a win (or at the very least a competitive loss) to remind the Storm of their presence.

Manly made an uncharacteristically nervous start, but once Matai put a huge hit on Cameron Smith, they had the edge physically over the Storm. Unfortunately for Manly, they lacked enough of the prowess to convert this physical dominance into sufficient points. Melbourne looked somewhat shaky and vulnerable at times, but with Slater, Cronk, Folau and a simple, well-rehearsed and effective playbook, they produced points at crucial times. These points gave Melbourne the edge on the scoreboard but also gave them temporary respite from Manly's almost unrelenting attack.

While Melbourne held on for the win, it was unclear who came out of this game feeling better about their prospects. Does Melbourne have another gear to cope with Manly's edge in the physical department? Or will they rely on their defence holding out (just) and conjuring up points when they need them? Manly had to feel very good about how their size worried Melbourne, but can Matt Orford make the right last-tackle option against a very good defence? Time and time again, Orford made poor decisions or executed poorly when a well-placed kick would likely have led to points or another set of tackles.

Also on Friday night came the first of the games involving middle-of-the-road teams: St George Illawarra v Wests Tigers. There is a feeling of unease putting the Dragons into that sentence, given their excellent efforts against many of the best teams in the NRL. But they are also well-known for disappointing their supporters when expected to win. Throw in some key injuries (Ryles, Poore, Creagh and the uninjury to Gasnier), the Tigers' dominance over the Dragons in recent years and that this was the Dragons' 3rd game in 11 days and the outcome of this one was difficult to predict. This was despite Wests' horrible form away from home and at night or in the wet in recent years and that they'd basically only played one very good game in the last few months.

The Tigers took a slim lead to half-time, which became even slimmer soon after, but the much-maligned Tigers' defence held firm for the remainder of the game and when Benji Marshall streaked away in the game's dying minutes, this was another one that got away for the Dragons. Admittedly, the Tigers needed this win more than the Dragons did (purely from a table perspective): look for a much-improved Dragons' effort this week when they take on Brisbane in Brisbane (a ground where they have had much success over the years).

Saturday's first game saw the high-flying Broncos take on the desperate Warriors. Brisbane was brilliant against Canberra last week, but they were without the rude Justin Hodges, the tardy Sam Thaiday, the under-the-thumb David Stagg and the aging Tonie Carroll in this game: four important outs. Meanwhile the Warriors rushed Wade McKinnon back after knee surgery in February and rearranged the deckchairs on their halves Titanic and brought back Michael Witt. A loss for them here almost certainly meant the end of the season (given their poor for-and-against) but they historically lift for the arrival of the Broncos.

It was apparent from early on that (again) the Warriors had turned up to play, but (again) they struggled to turn this into points. It was also apparent that Brisbane would not be able to repeat their effort from last Sunday, but they looked quite confident of victory. Hannant's try (following excellent work from Ennis, Hunt and Lockyer) gave Brisbane a deserved 8-4 lead. The Warriors had plenty of attacking ball, but they rarely threatened. Brisbane supporters and Matt Orford would have taken comfort from the Warriors' halves ongoing struggles, but the Warriors took a surprise lead to half-time when a well-worked play from a scrum saw McKinnon score.

New Zealand extended their lead after half-time, as Witt pounced on a loose ball from a cross-kick, but they were unable to put the Broncos away, in part due to Witt's poor goal-kicking. Brisbane cut the Warriors' lead to four points late on and threatened to snatch a late win, but the Warriors survived. They were perhaps a bit lucky not to be penalised for several late tackles on kickers throughout the game: this was a surprise given the referees' recent crackdown on this area.

When Brisbane came out somewhat flat in their game, one expected Canberra (Brisbane's opponents last Sunday) to do likewise, especially in freezing conditions in Canberra on Sunday. Luckily for them, Penrith was missing Luke Lewis, but after 20 minutes, the score was 12-all and Penrith was right in the contest. Twenty-five minutes later, Canberra had a 32-point lead: HUH?! Obviously, Canberra suffered no ill effects from last Sunday and once they got their high-octane attack into gear, Penrith was no chance. Penrith's defence was brutally exposed by Canberra's decoy runners / second-man plays, while young Wade Graham was targetted and let in several tries as well.

Clearly, while many teams have a similar points total, there is the possibility of blowout scores if one team's effort is far below the other. This was seen (to a lesser extent) last night on the Gold Coast, where the understrength locals were blown off the park by a rampaging (at times literally) Newcastle. The Titans started strongly and threatened to open the scoring, but Newcastle's defence held solid. Once Adam MacDougall put McManus into space and Gidley finished off their good work, the tries came at a pace almost as fast as Canberra's. Newcastle's lead was 16-6 at half-time and a try to the Titans may have made the game interesting, but Newcastle scored from the first set of the second half. They may not have a huge say over who wins this year's NRL - they may not even make the top 8 - but watch for them in years to come. Size, strength, speed, skills, depth, youth, smarts: they have it all. Their potential is frightening.

Many have said similar things about Parramatta, but not in such glowing terms. Finally though, they seem back on the right track: they brought the right attitude, led for most of the game, their attack gave glimpses of its amazing potential and they held on for a very important win over the disappointing Roosters. One could almost call the Roosters the schoolyard bullies of the NRL: when things go their way and get out to a strong lead, they almost always win and win well, but when someone stands up to them, their most common response is to run home in tears. To be fair, they did beat Melbourne, Newcastle (once), the Tigers and the Bulldogs (with a very understrength team) in games where the opposition gave them a tough game, but more often than not, a loss is the result in games like this. They get a great test of their mettle this week when they travel to Melbourne: the Storm will no doubt be vulnerable after their Origin-like game against Manly.

The final 2 games of the round saw Souths put in a disappointing effort against Cronulla and the Cowbores end their months-long losing streak over the Bulldogs. For Cronulla, to dispose of a lower team with a strong and high-scoring win (especially a team that has given them trouble over the years) was noteworthy, but Souths showed little of the verve they displayed against the Warriors last week. The Cowbores - Bulldogs game provided some nice tries (especially rookie Ben Barba's in-and-away) and a so-bad-it-was-hilarious attempt at a short kickoff by Daniel Holdsworth late in the game, but was generally quite poor.

Hopefully, now the wooden-spoon race is on, these two teams (and Souths) can throw some spanners in the works of contending teams and provide more interest for the season's final few weeks. The NRL certainly hopes so. See you next week.

Tuesday 5 August 2008

Round 21: The Lesser Known Overseas Threat to the NRL

What began as a trickle is now a steady downpour and threatens to become a deluge. The NRL/ARL/NSWRL’s status as the code’s premier club competition is being increasingly eroded by the NRL’s relatively stagnant financial state.

Whereas once it was only the occasional high-profile player or the aging star that chose to move to Rugby Union or to the English Super League, now we are seeing more players – of all skill levels – looking to ply their trade in more lucrative settings.

The threats to the quality and quantity of NRL rosters from England and Rugby Union are well-known by all League followers. The potential damage from the new threat of French Rugby Union has some suggesting the NRL can no longer compete, should merge with Rugby Union, or that any merger would be ultimately futile when the NFL finally realises the size and strength of athletic talent on our shores.

While some people need to step back for a second and think about how silly they sound, Rugby League has to realise it is part of the global sporting village now (just as Uncle Rupert and co. always – and only – wanted I’m sure) and must be prepared for codes/leagues from larger markets to lure their best players away.

One can imagine the white board at NRL headquarters contains all known threats: English Super League, Rugby Union, NFL and the AFL.

But what about Sumo Wrestling: the 1000-pound gorilla in the room…literally? Since Rugby League bid farewell to the National Panasonic Cup in the late 1980s, Japanese interest in the game was confined to having the Toyota name attached to Cronulla’s home ground.

This minimal contribution seemed destined to remain until after an impromptu Saturday afternoon karaoke session for some visiting Toyota executives in June last year. These execs thought they had hit the jackpot: they found a bar which served sake as well as showing Rugby. Alas, the bar attendant thought they were referring to the NRL: the execs were baffled not only by this foreign game, but also by the unusual attire. Skin tight lime green for half the players and skin tight blue and gold for the others – what countries were these two teams representing?

However, before an explanation could be sought, the execs became transfixed with the action on the screen. Specifically, two rather heavy-set players, Weyman and Riddell. The skin tight uniforms did not flatter them at all; they did not share the much more athletic builds of their team-mates. But the dislike between them was unmistakable; the execs could not help but picture them in much more forgiving attire, trading blows and verbal barbs in front of a much larger crowd than the few thousand at Bruce Stadium that night.

The execs returned to their sakes when Weyman was sin-binned that night and the tension between Weyman and Riddell never returned to pre-sin-bin levels as Canberra thrashed the Eels, but these execs would never forget their first game of NRL.

Senior management at Toyota was sceptical of sumo talent emanating from somewhere as unexpected as Australia, but once they saw the vision of Weyman and Riddell, they decided then and there Toyota would become financially involved with Rugby League: the potential was enormous. As discussions progressed during 2007 for a National U/20’s competition – with significant exposure on Fox Sports – Toyota saw their opportunity and the Toyota Cup was born.

Hang on, you might say, Weyman signed with the Dragons for 2009 and 2010. This is true. But look a bit deeper. The red and white, the aging emperor (known as Bennett-san), followers who remember ancient victories like they happened yesterday: the Japanese influence at the Dragons is unmistakeable. When Mick Weyman is the next player to run (relatively speaking) from the NRL and he fools everyone by arriving in Tokyo, remember where you heard it first.

To bring an end to the world’s longest segue, as a tribute to the looming Japanese threat to our great game, this week’s Tuesday Roast will feature the ancient Japanese poetry known as haiku.

Manly v. Penrith

Manly rebounded
Even short-handed, they don’t
Lose two in a row

Manly missed Anthony Watmough and Glen Stewart badly in last week’s loss to the Roosters. They fell behind 18-0 early on and were never in the hunt. Watmough was still missing (as was Lyon and King) but Stewart returned this week. His impact was immediate and significant. Stewart’s size and skills gave Manly’s attack another dimension, as they jumped to an 18-0 lead of their own.

Penrith was missing their own top-shelf second rower in Frank Pritchard, but while Penrith was brave, Manly’s imposing display in the first 25 minutes was too much for them. The enigmatic Pritchard would probably not have made much difference. Penrith brought an excellent away record (8 wins in their last 11 away games) into this game, but they never significantly troubled Manly in this one.

Manly take on Melbourne this Friday night in what looks like a grand final preview. Melbourne shared the spotlight with Manly in Round 21:

Melbourne v. Gold Coast

The banged-up Titans
Were like lambs at the slaughter;
A crushing Storm win

Even though Gold Coast rushed Mat Rogers back and even though Melbourne was playing their 3rd game in 11 days and backing up from a tough game in the wet in Auckland (and the ensuing long flight), this was never close. The 24.5 points start offered on FootyTAB was cancelled out before half-time. The jury is still deliberating as to how Gold Coast could have thought Josh Lewis would do any better than Brad Davis in the sacrificial lamb half-back role against the imposing Storm defence.

Bring on Friday night: Manly has won the last 2 v. Melbourne at Brookvale, but both of these games were played during Origin season. No excuses this time.

The Dragons love excuses, mostly because they perform better when they have them. They performed admirably for most of Saturday night, but fell (again) to Cronulla in a close one.

Cronulla v. St George Illawarra

Gutsy Dragons’ win
Was on, but bad play / good luck;
Sharks by (just) again

The Dragons were missing Gasnier and Ryles and had to make do without Morris (fullback) for most of this game. However, as long-time Dragons supporters will tell you, some of their best performances can come without many of their big names (Gasnier, in particular, seems to be doing his best Trent Barrett impression in his last days as a Dragon).

Cronulla enjoyed the majority of possession and field position in this game, but could not cross the Dragons’ line; they butchered several good chances (how Pomeroy didn’t score with only Jamie Soward to beat still boggles the mind) as the Dragons’ defence held firm.

This pattern continued into the second half, as early Cronulla attack was repelled by continuing hard work from the Dragons and salt was rubbed into the wound when the Dragons scored from a rare venture into Cronulla’s area.

But Cronulla didn’t lose focus. A combination of Dragons’ mistakes, poor refereeing decisions and some good luck for Cronulla saw the Sharks come back into the game. They dominated possession and field position over the game’s final 25 or so minutes and overhauled a 12-point Dragons lead.

Cronulla didn’t totally dominate play during this time: the Dragons made some good plays, such as tackling Brett Kearney into touch as he returned a kick with about 10 minutes to go. But each time, they made a mistake of their own to give Cronulla more ball: in this case, Chase Stanley dropped the ball the tackle after the scrum which followed Kearney’s mistake.

As the Dragons often do, they were stung by losing the lead and almost won the game in the last minute. They elected not to try for a field goal and extra time (which, given their record in close games, was probably a good idea) and instead went for the win. A broken play in the game’s final minute was an unlikely source for Cronulla’s defence to be stretched; the Dragons had an overlap. In hindsight, perhaps putting the ball through hands would have been more successful, but the surprise grubber kick from Matt Prior came within centimetres of being another Morris try.

Cronulla held on for yet another close win – incredibly, their for-and-against is only +15 despite winning 7 more games than they’ve lost – but it was a crushing loss for the Dragons. They look set to have even more excuses next week: Poore and fullback Morris will be out, Gasnier and Ryles may not be back, it will be their 3rd game in 11 days on Friday night and this game is against the Tigers, who have a good record against the Dragons.

The Roosters are a more conventional team than the Dragons: they win and lose when most expect them to do so. So even though they fell behind to the Cowbores, a Roosters win was never in doubt.

North Queensland v. Sydney Roosters

The Cowbores tried hard
But they suck: easy Chooks’ tries
Meant a comfy win

A glance at the ladder confirmed the Roosters needed to back up their win against Manly with more of the same against the Cowbores. They started quite well, but the Cowbores amazingly responded with four tries before half-time. Sione Faumuina is a frequent and easy target, but he was having a significant impact on this game, while the Roosters’ defence of cross-kicks was again called into question as the Cowbores scored several far-too-easy tries by this source.

But the Roosters didn’t panic: they kept the Cowbores scoreless from this point on and added four tries of their own in the game’s final 50 minutes or so to win comfortably.

The best teams are often noted for doing only what is needed to win games, but Brad Fittler would probably prefer Round 22 opposition more lively than Parramatta to give his players a test.

The New Zealand Warriors overcame the difficult test of beating Melbourne in Round 20, but a tricky game awaited them in Round 21. Souths had lost two straight since their great winning streak, but they welcomed back Isaac Luke and it quickly became apparent they were stung by their poor effort in Newcastle last week. The Warriors too put in significant effort, but errors cost them dearly. Still, the overwhelming feeling after the game was one of dé ja vu.

Souths v. New Zealand

This time, Souths snuck home –
(What goes around comes around)
– But got the bad call

Round 7 2007: New Zealand got out of gaol against Souths at Homebush, but were robbed of a try, when the video referee deemed Steve Price’s standard prop play (the hit-and-spin: turning into the defensive line and passing back to a team-mate in the process of making a hit-up) unfairly prevented Souths’ defenders from tackling the Warriors’ try-scorer. This abysmal ruling saw the NRL immediately (again) tinker with the obstruction rules.

Round 20 2008: Souths scored an impressive long-range try midway through the second half. The referee was within milliseconds of awarding the try, but an impassioned appeal from Warriors halfback Grant Rovelli convinced him to go to the video referee. The try was correctly denied, but Rovelli’s actions would not have been out of place on the cricket field. While the try was correctly denied, the review should never have happened. The on-field officials completely missed Craig Wing’s miniscule but pivotal involvement in the play: that should have been that. Souths should have received the try.

Thanks to Rovelli’s actions, the Warriors stayed in the game and probably should have won. Their effort – often a concern when playing lowly-ranked teams – was there, but their bad hands cost them possibly 3 tries. Ultimately, Souths’ goal-line defence won them the game in one of the more entertaining games played this season.

On Sunday, Brisbane and Canberra’s game also fit this description. Brisbane had looked decidedly apathetic in recent weeks. Even the challenge of playing Cronulla saw them coast for much of the game, content that a small lead was enough. But against Canberra, they produced a vintage display against a Raiders’ effort which would have beaten many others in the NRL.

Brisbane v. Canberra

Canberra’s momentum
Came to a halt: Brisbane turned
Back the clock, looked great

After years of having a loaded playing roster, the salary cap, the challenge to their SEQ monopoly and the need to have a younger, quicker roster has seen Brisbane undergo a significant transformation in the last two years. They still have some of the NRL’s best talent, but they lost a heap of big-match experience when the likes of Webcke, Berrigan, Tate, Carlaw, Civoniceva and Thorn all moved on.

The resurgent Raiders, like many opposition teams do, brought their best to Suncorp and liked their chances, but they probably weren’t counting a Brisbane effort last seen in late 2006. Canberra was brave and might have had a shot at winning if they scored during a 15-to-20 minute period early in the second half when they ambushed the Brisbane line, but the rest of the NRL should be scared if Brisbane can produce play like this again when needed over the remainder of the season.

You could have said the same about the Tigers’ effort if they were playing someone other than the Bulldogs.

Wests Tigers v. Bulldogs

Fifty-six points: Far
Too easy for the Tigers
Put these Dogs to sleep

After the Tigers’ thrashing of the Bulldogs, Bulldogs’ CEO Todd Greenberg mentioned some supporters of other teams are feeling sorry for the Bulldogs’ current plight. It is a very tough time for the Bulldogs, but last night’s “effort” by Parramatta should ensure there is no sympathy coming from Eels’ supporters: they have more than enough problems of their own.

Newcastle v. Parramatta

Knights: too big, too strong
Parra: a shell of last year
Hagan has to go

Parramatta is now in strong contention for the most disappointing team of 2008; the Cowbores are up there with them. It is worth noting that the coaches of these teams – Michael Hagan and (formerly) Graham Murray – are known for their reserved approach and rarely raise their voice at their team. Not surprisingly, both teams’ attitude has fallen off markedly in 2008. In hindsight, both Parramatta and the Cowbores allowed the significant talent of a few individuals paper over the cracks of what were rotting fundamental structures.

There is little doubt that Hagan and Murray can both coach and little doubt that many players from both Parra and the Cowbores are still extremely talented, but there is also little doubt Parramatta needs to try a different tack. As the old saying goes, it’s easier to sack a coach than a heap of players (especially if some of those players are on major coin).

Imagine a Ricky Stuart-type at Parramatta. Or even Brian Smith. He is in the middle of transforming what was an older lazy team at Newcastle into an intense, physical, deep and young team which will come closer to a premiership in the next three years than Parramatta ever will. Perhaps Riddell should join Weyman in the Japanese Sumo League next season.

On that note, it’s sayonara for this week.

The Tuesday Roast

Tuesday 14 October 2008

"...I sure didn't see that coming"

Sunday 5 October 2008

Finals week 3 review (& grand final preview)

Thursday 25 September 2008

Brisbane Broncos: End of an Era

Tuesday 16 September 2008

Team of the Year...plus some comments about Week 1 of the finals

Wednesday 10 September 2008

Round 26: A Diverse Mix of Types of Late-Round Teams (and How They Breathed Life into an Otherwise Dull Weekend): An End-Of-Season Roast

Tuesday 2 September 2008

Round 25: Goodbyes...and Hellos

Tuesday 26 August 2008

Round 24: A special Roast from Bruce McAvaney live in Bay-jing

Tuesday 19 August 2008

Round 23: The Roundup about Nothing

Wednesday 13 August 2008

Round 22: Where the NRL's dream (almost) came true

Tuesday 5 August 2008

Round 21: The Lesser Known Overseas Threat to the NRL

Slater's award for being better than Rhys Wesser

Blog Archive