Round 22: Where the NRL's dream (almost) came true

In recent years, the NRL has become increasingly proud of the parity across the competition. The variety amongst premiership winners, the competitiveness amongst lower-ranked teams and the difficulty for higher-ranked teams to dominate are now standard. While there is little doubt the more even competition has come at the expense of across-the-board quality and significantly diminished the incentive to innovate (the Wests Tigers are a beacon of hope here), the latter minor competition rounds have become increasingly interesting in recent years. Since 2005, this has been seen not only with the high number of games with ramifications on the ultimate makeup and order of the top 8, but also where teams either out of contention or hanging on to the faintest of hopes can inflict a blow on higher-up teams.

The games in Round 22 gave us an intriguing mix of matchups between highly-ranked teams, between teams vying for top 8 spots, between highly-ranked teams and lower teams but where the lower teams had strong reasons for hope and lastly there was the wooden-spoon "battle" which was fairly entertaining (although, at times, this was unintentional).

The game of the round saw Manly take on Melbourne. Much was made of Manly's excellent record over Melbourne at Brookvale Oval, but their wins over Melbourne there in the last 2 years came before a State of Origin (where Melbourne was without several of their key players) in 2006 and after a State of Origin (which saw many of Melbourne's key players having to back up) in 2007. This time round, Melbourne was at full strength. They seemed to have passed their annual post-Origin slump (i.e a loss) and were no doubt motivated by the possibility of winning at such a tough venue.

Meanwhile, Manly had to make a stand. Melbourne thrashed them in last year's grand final and earlier this year: they needed a win (or at the very least a competitive loss) to remind the Storm of their presence.

Manly made an uncharacteristically nervous start, but once Matai put a huge hit on Cameron Smith, they had the edge physically over the Storm. Unfortunately for Manly, they lacked enough of the prowess to convert this physical dominance into sufficient points. Melbourne looked somewhat shaky and vulnerable at times, but with Slater, Cronk, Folau and a simple, well-rehearsed and effective playbook, they produced points at crucial times. These points gave Melbourne the edge on the scoreboard but also gave them temporary respite from Manly's almost unrelenting attack.

While Melbourne held on for the win, it was unclear who came out of this game feeling better about their prospects. Does Melbourne have another gear to cope with Manly's edge in the physical department? Or will they rely on their defence holding out (just) and conjuring up points when they need them? Manly had to feel very good about how their size worried Melbourne, but can Matt Orford make the right last-tackle option against a very good defence? Time and time again, Orford made poor decisions or executed poorly when a well-placed kick would likely have led to points or another set of tackles.

Also on Friday night came the first of the games involving middle-of-the-road teams: St George Illawarra v Wests Tigers. There is a feeling of unease putting the Dragons into that sentence, given their excellent efforts against many of the best teams in the NRL. But they are also well-known for disappointing their supporters when expected to win. Throw in some key injuries (Ryles, Poore, Creagh and the uninjury to Gasnier), the Tigers' dominance over the Dragons in recent years and that this was the Dragons' 3rd game in 11 days and the outcome of this one was difficult to predict. This was despite Wests' horrible form away from home and at night or in the wet in recent years and that they'd basically only played one very good game in the last few months.

The Tigers took a slim lead to half-time, which became even slimmer soon after, but the much-maligned Tigers' defence held firm for the remainder of the game and when Benji Marshall streaked away in the game's dying minutes, this was another one that got away for the Dragons. Admittedly, the Tigers needed this win more than the Dragons did (purely from a table perspective): look for a much-improved Dragons' effort this week when they take on Brisbane in Brisbane (a ground where they have had much success over the years).

Saturday's first game saw the high-flying Broncos take on the desperate Warriors. Brisbane was brilliant against Canberra last week, but they were without the rude Justin Hodges, the tardy Sam Thaiday, the under-the-thumb David Stagg and the aging Tonie Carroll in this game: four important outs. Meanwhile the Warriors rushed Wade McKinnon back after knee surgery in February and rearranged the deckchairs on their halves Titanic and brought back Michael Witt. A loss for them here almost certainly meant the end of the season (given their poor for-and-against) but they historically lift for the arrival of the Broncos.

It was apparent from early on that (again) the Warriors had turned up to play, but (again) they struggled to turn this into points. It was also apparent that Brisbane would not be able to repeat their effort from last Sunday, but they looked quite confident of victory. Hannant's try (following excellent work from Ennis, Hunt and Lockyer) gave Brisbane a deserved 8-4 lead. The Warriors had plenty of attacking ball, but they rarely threatened. Brisbane supporters and Matt Orford would have taken comfort from the Warriors' halves ongoing struggles, but the Warriors took a surprise lead to half-time when a well-worked play from a scrum saw McKinnon score.

New Zealand extended their lead after half-time, as Witt pounced on a loose ball from a cross-kick, but they were unable to put the Broncos away, in part due to Witt's poor goal-kicking. Brisbane cut the Warriors' lead to four points late on and threatened to snatch a late win, but the Warriors survived. They were perhaps a bit lucky not to be penalised for several late tackles on kickers throughout the game: this was a surprise given the referees' recent crackdown on this area.

When Brisbane came out somewhat flat in their game, one expected Canberra (Brisbane's opponents last Sunday) to do likewise, especially in freezing conditions in Canberra on Sunday. Luckily for them, Penrith was missing Luke Lewis, but after 20 minutes, the score was 12-all and Penrith was right in the contest. Twenty-five minutes later, Canberra had a 32-point lead: HUH?! Obviously, Canberra suffered no ill effects from last Sunday and once they got their high-octane attack into gear, Penrith was no chance. Penrith's defence was brutally exposed by Canberra's decoy runners / second-man plays, while young Wade Graham was targetted and let in several tries as well.

Clearly, while many teams have a similar points total, there is the possibility of blowout scores if one team's effort is far below the other. This was seen (to a lesser extent) last night on the Gold Coast, where the understrength locals were blown off the park by a rampaging (at times literally) Newcastle. The Titans started strongly and threatened to open the scoring, but Newcastle's defence held solid. Once Adam MacDougall put McManus into space and Gidley finished off their good work, the tries came at a pace almost as fast as Canberra's. Newcastle's lead was 16-6 at half-time and a try to the Titans may have made the game interesting, but Newcastle scored from the first set of the second half. They may not have a huge say over who wins this year's NRL - they may not even make the top 8 - but watch for them in years to come. Size, strength, speed, skills, depth, youth, smarts: they have it all. Their potential is frightening.

Many have said similar things about Parramatta, but not in such glowing terms. Finally though, they seem back on the right track: they brought the right attitude, led for most of the game, their attack gave glimpses of its amazing potential and they held on for a very important win over the disappointing Roosters. One could almost call the Roosters the schoolyard bullies of the NRL: when things go their way and get out to a strong lead, they almost always win and win well, but when someone stands up to them, their most common response is to run home in tears. To be fair, they did beat Melbourne, Newcastle (once), the Tigers and the Bulldogs (with a very understrength team) in games where the opposition gave them a tough game, but more often than not, a loss is the result in games like this. They get a great test of their mettle this week when they travel to Melbourne: the Storm will no doubt be vulnerable after their Origin-like game against Manly.

The final 2 games of the round saw Souths put in a disappointing effort against Cronulla and the Cowbores end their months-long losing streak over the Bulldogs. For Cronulla, to dispose of a lower team with a strong and high-scoring win (especially a team that has given them trouble over the years) was noteworthy, but Souths showed little of the verve they displayed against the Warriors last week. The Cowbores - Bulldogs game provided some nice tries (especially rookie Ben Barba's in-and-away) and a so-bad-it-was-hilarious attempt at a short kickoff by Daniel Holdsworth late in the game, but was generally quite poor.

Hopefully, now the wooden-spoon race is on, these two teams (and Souths) can throw some spanners in the works of contending teams and provide more interest for the season's final few weeks. The NRL certainly hopes so. See you next week.

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