Tuesday 26 May 2009

Round 11 - Referees, Rebirths and Roasts: A Pre-Origin Review

As this most chaotic of NRL seasons is about to enter a several-month period of major flux for the line-ups of the best teams, it seems an appropriate time to take stock as well as outline what will no doubt be a pathetic attempt at the eventual outcome of season 2009.

Parramatta: Despite 2009 being a season thus far of major upheaval, player disenchantment and largely poor form, it can be argued there is light at the end of the tunnel for Parramatta. Yes, they have some gaping holes in their squad but there are signs of a team that cares, that wants to play at its best no matter who might be missing. They will lose a high number of the season’s remaining games, but you get the impression that the Parra army wouldn’t mind this if the players continue to have a dig more often than not.

Their effort against Souths on Friday night was top-shelf and they were very unlucky to come away from the game with just one point. Their games may not be very pretty for much of the next few months (perhaps until Mateo comes back) but an honourable 12th to 14th place finish looks likely.

Souths: On balance, Souths have enjoyed a solid season to date. Sure, their effort against Parramatta was poor – they have struggled for form in general in situations where most expected them to play well – but this has been offset by some extremely gutsy performances. Souths had little to no right to be anywhere near victory against the Warriors, Tigers and Titans, but that they picked up 4 points from these games could be very useful later on in the season.

Of course, how you fare against the better teams will eventually determine your fate, but points accumulated after playing the lower teams determines the difficulty of your September fixtures. Look for Souths to do enough to have a shot at success (especially with the signing of Crocker): 6th to 8th should be about right.

Wests Tigers: So near and yet so far: the Tigers have played some of the best rugby league seen this season, defeated or threatened a number of high-flying teams and could well be in the top 4. Their poor luck was seen again on Friday night, where, even without Robbie Farah, they came very close to defeating Brisbane. Much has been said about the refereeing in this game, but the Tigers again lacked someone to finish off much of their good work.

Farah and Marshall will, of course, return in combination in State of Origin off weeks and for the remainder of the season (injuries notwithstanding) but the Tigers’ ultimate standing is one of the more difficult to figure. A premiership run or a (weak) challenge for the spoon are both somewhat likely. I’ll say 9th to 11th for now, but this really could go either way.

Brisbane: A real enigma of a team. A major roster overhaul over the last few seasons has seen the average age of the roster fall markedly, but accompanying the increased youth is, strangely, greater complacency (or more correctly, doing the bare minimum needed to win). This was again seen on Friday night, where they generally failed to match the enthusiasm of the understrength Tigers, but took enough chances when they got near the Tigers’ line to sneak home with the win.

While they are not really playing anywhere near their potential at the moment, their talent level and ongoing generous scheduling (due to Channel 9’s desire to screen Brisbane on Friday nights, the Broncos have a consistency and routine to their draw which is the envy of many teams) as well as their very good start to the season should ensure that Brisbane finishes in the top 2. But whether they can win big games in September with a forward pack of questionable quality is another matter entirely.

Cronulla: The seeds of their disastrous season were probably sewn several years ago, where allowing the status quo at all levels of the club to continue has been shown to be an extremely poor decision. For all of Ricky Stuart’s tenure at Cronulla, his team has been under-resourced and the club’s reputation amongst players has remained low (hence the high number of rejects Cronulla has been forced to accept). Also during the entirety of Stuart’s time at Cronulla, the Sharks have been a hard-working team; this is not in question. Again on Saturday night, they gave the Dragons a tough game. But while in 2007, they lost a heap of close games, and in 2008, they won a heap of close games, it has fallen apart in 2009. The loss of Kimmorley, Bird, De Gois and Kearney really haven’t been covered and given their lack of depth, Cronulla has struggled mightily in all areas in 2009.

There is a risk of the whole operation going belly-up and Cronulla losing the plot over the season’s final few months, but the more likely outcome is for Cronulla to continue to fight hard but for only perhaps a handful (if they’re lucky) of gutsy wins. A bottom 2 finish looks a certainty for Cronulla.

St George Illawarra: If there was ever any doubt as to the coaching credentials of Wayne Bennett, this must have been erased given his brilliant work transforming the Dragons. What many Dragons supporters saw as a risky game against Cronulla on the weekend was a comfortable win, as the Dragons absorbed Cronulla’s best before Soward inspired his team to a number of tries early in the second half.

Speaking of Soward, his playmaking and kicking will always be important, but it might be his speed which is his most valuable asset. Soward, Brett Morris, Boyd and some others possess blinding speed; this has and will lead to a number of tries, which will help to alleviate the Dragons’ relative lack of playmaking ability. Of course, the Dragons’ size, toughness and intensity will take them far this season: they will finish between 3rd and 5th but represent a serious threat for this year’s premiership (given their semi-final style of play).

Bulldogs: Speaking of transformations, an even greater transformation has taken place with the Bulldogs. While their work in signing a number of very good players was very important, the way they have come together as a finely-functioning team in a short matter of time has been extremely impressive. A great example of the resilience of the Bulldogs was seen on Saturday night when they thoroughly defeated Melbourne but where all their points came after the injury to Brett Kimmorley. The collective lift in the Bulldogs’ level of play and intensity was extremely obvious in the minutes after Kimmorley’s departure and they were able to sustain this during the second half for a great win.

Even if the Bulldogs experience a prolonged period of struggle over the remainder of the season, they are extremely well placed given their current high standing and relative lack of Origin representation. They seem set for a top 2 finish and have a great shot at premiership glory.

Melbourne: The stage was set on Saturday night for a return to the status quo; for Melbourne to build on their thrashing of Canberra with a win over the upstart Bulldogs on Saturday night and in doing so, confirming their premiership intentions before the Origin period. But the usually well prepared Storm didn’t seem to factor in how hungry the Bulldogs would be. Also, the Storm reacted poorly to the loss of Kimmorley for the Bulldogs. The Storm’s highly predictable style of play has seen them labelled robots by some; well, these wags would have taken joy out of Melbourne’s failure to react to a significant change in their opposition’s line-up.

That said, Melbourne’s prospects have improved markedly over the last month. The return of several important cogs of their forward pack has been important (especially with much reduced depth in this season’s squad) while the signing of Brett Finch has given them a much-needed alternate playmaking option. They will struggle during Origin, but look for them to make a bit of a run after Origin: 3rd to 5th for the Storm.

Penrith: Finally – finally – it appears as though the pieces are coming together for Penrith. Their much-vaunted youngsters have improved, their sizeable forward is playing with a good level of consistency and the signing of Luke Walsh at halfback might just be the icing on the cake. Similar to the old Dragons, the old Panthers might have played poorly against the Roosters on Saturday night. Instead, they turned up to thrash them: a stark contrast to a number of pathetic home displays when expected to win in recent years.

Penrith’s rise has been confirmed by the Origin announcements, with Jennings and Lewis (18th man) receiving overdue recognition and Penrith should continue their growth throughout the remainder of this season by sneaking into the top 8: a 6th to 8th finish will cap an amazing turnaround, led by Matthew Elliott.

Sydney Roosters: Similar to Cronulla, the Roosters have fallen away badly in 2009 after a strong 2008, which, in hindsight, saw them overachieve with relatively little talent. The loss of Shillington and Tupou without replacement and the aging of O’Meley, Mason and Fitzgibbon have seen the Roosters’ pack diminish, while their backline, which was never much good to begin with, has regressed further. Braith Anasta at fullback, while potentially the shake-up the team needed, looks destined to be remembered with the one-marker theory as Roosters’ innovations which were never meant to work.

Sadly for the likeable Brad Fittler, it appears the writing is on the wall for his coaching career, but unfortunately for whoever takes over, the ingredients of a turnaround similar to when Fittler started at the Roosters in mid 2007 seem to be lacking. They will fight with the Sharks for the wooden spoon.

Canberra: While Canberra stopped the bleeding on Sunday with a big win over the Warriors, they still seem a long way away from their blistering form of late 2008. Much like the Roosters and Cronulla, Canberra lost several good players from 2008 including Colin Best, Todd Carney (as well as Michael Dobson) and Lincoln Withers and never adequately replaced them. They just haven’t….clicked so far this season and now with Terry Campese being named as NSW five-eighth for at least one game, Canberra’s chances of a turnaround seem further doomed. They will still be nuisance value for teams on a cold day or night at Bruce, but a 12th to 14th finish seems most likely for the Green Machine.

New Zealand: A huge disappointment. There is a significant risk in writing off their season because in each of the last three seasons, the Warriors have endured a long spell of poor form before turning it around and storming home, but this season looks more like 2004 (when their slow start deteriorated into a terrible season) than 2006-2008. Their lack of intensity and passion against similarly struggling opponents Canberra on Sunday was their worst yet. They miss Brent Tate, but they have more than enough talent, experience, speed and ability to be on a far higher ladder position than their current 12th.

Like a game on a sunny Sunday afternoon where the Warriors fall behind by 16 with 20 to go and they all of a sudden turn into the Harlem Globetrotters and post 4 tries for a shock win, I’m wary of writing the Warriors off for season 2009 then watching them win 10 in a row to make the 8 but their problems seem too deep and resolutions seem too far away. It will be a 12th to 14th place finish for the Warriors in 2009.

Gold Coast: There’s no doubt that the Gold Coast possess some of the very best players in the NRL but…in their first two seasons, they started strongly only to fade late in the season and finish out of the top 8. Despite a quite amazing effort to just hold off the physically dominant Manly team on Sunday, it appears as though history might repeat once again and that the Titans might be one of the unlucky few good teams to miss the 8 this season.

The main reason for this lies in Sunday’s game against Manly: they struggle against the larger, physically dominant teams. Of course, their strengths of dynamic attack, experience and speed can always neutralise size (the ’05 Tigers showed this) and players such as Preston Campbell and Nathan Friend can often play well above their size, but unfortunately for the Titans, a finish just outside the top 8 is the prediction here.

Manly: The loss of Brett Stewart for potentially the rest of the season has been a huge blow for Manly, but they (belatedly) seem to have adjusted. Their thrashing of Parramatta last week was impressive and they threatened to overwhelm the Gold Coast yesterday.

However, they lost to the Titans long before Matt Cecchin’s controversial decision against Matt Orford. Orford’s play for the ball ahead of a grubbering Preston Campbell was harshly called a penalty, but much of the rest of his game deserved some sort of punishment. While Manly’s forward pack dominated, they didn’t quite dominate to the extent that Orford had a day out. He still had to make a number of significant plays: kicks, passes, generally steering his team around. His overall mark was…somewhat unsatisfactory. His choices were often poor, his execution was lacking despite a dry day and good conditions.

In short, Manly’s slow start will be a major factor behind their eventual finish just outside the top 8, but the ongoing absence of Stewart and Orford’s sub-par performances will prevent Manly from winning enough games over the remainder of the season.

North Queensland: The Cowbores usually start the season strongly, struggle over the Origin period and beyond then finish strongly, but their adjustment to new coach Neil Henry’s system and the ongoing return to form of Matt Bowen has seen them improve steadily over the season.

They showed some glimpses of form in the opening weeks of the season, but generally were quite poor. Their win over an understrength Dragons appeared to be quite lucky, but in hindsight, this helped to turn their season around. Since then, they have been very impressive in defeating New Zealand and Newcastle. Not only has Feral Thurston lifted his game considerably, but most importantly, the much-maligned Cowbores forwards are playing at a much higher level. For them to hold their own against the usually very good Newcastle pack last night was a key foundation for their big win.

After a slow start, the Cowbores have found form in recent weeks and look a likely top 8 team at season’s end. It is within the realms of possibility that they will crack the top 5, but it’s hard to see their forward pack playing so well for most of the rest of the season, so let’s give them a 6th to 8th finish.

Newcastle: A glowing review of Newcastle’s first 11 rounds was already to go before last night’s game (before last night’s second half even) but their capitulation to the Cowbores meant some second thoughts were had. It must be kept in mind that is still largely a very young team (which is why the contributions of veterans Simpson and MacDougall are so important) who have had and will have consistency issues over the course of the season, but nevertheless this is a very good up-and-coming team with one of the NRL’s best coaches.

They have so many of the bases covered: playmaking, size, speed, depth, athleticism. The fruits of Brian Smith’s recruitment have paid off handsomely this season and are bound to keep doing so in the years to come. Consistency is probably their only weakness, but this should start to come through over the remainder of the season, which will help to steer the Knights to a top 5 place by season’s end.

Feel free to agree or disagree with any or all or the above: in such an even competition, it would be a major surprise if there weren’t a number of different views of where the season will end up amongst the learned brethren of tipsters.

Enjoy the many upcoming exciting stories from the two Origin teams preparing for next Wednesday’s game and see you next week.

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