Round 18: Game of the Week: Cronulla v. Manly

With 17 rounds complete – meaning the end of the State of Origin period and the end of byes – the upper echelon of teams had emerged: Manly, the Roosters, Cronulla and Melbourne (and possibly the Dragons, due to their strong performances against most of these teams).

However, the draw had been rather unkind to those wanting regular matchups of these teams (at full strength anyway). The early rounds gave us weekly collisions of the upper four, with Cronulla taking on Manly and Melbourne in the first 2 rounds and Melbourne playing the 3 others within the first 5 rounds.

Since then, these 4 teams have been busy accumulating points (save for some Origin interruptions) and waiting for the next round of collisions with the other upper four.

Saturday night provided the first of these games and was (by far) the standout game in Round 18 as Manly left one insular peninsula to travel to another: Toyota Park at Cronulla.

Both teams had strong momentum coming into this game: Manly had won 9 out of 10 including 6 in a row away from Brookvale. Unlike all other good teams (and a few bad ones), their State of Origin representation was minimal, allowing solid combinations to develop (which in turn helped to allay concerns about Manly’s attack after a poor first 2 rounds) and significantly reducing the likelihood of any post-Origin letdown. This has also contributed to their very low injury count.

Meanwhile, Cronulla had won 7 out of 8, including their last 4 games at home. Prior to this streak, they won only 5 of their previous 19 games at home: this was a terrible record for any team, but more so for Cronulla, who won almost two-thirds of home games in their halcyon period between 1994 and 2002.

Cronulla also had developed a potentially very valuable quality since the latter rounds of 2007: the ability to play very well against good teams and/or at difficult venues. This quality was captured by the statistic of 9 wins from their last 11 games as the outsider with the TAB. Wins against the odds this season include at Brookvale, at Olympic Park, at Townsville, at Penrith, versus Parramatta at home (for the first time since 2000) and at Bruce Stadium in their last game. These games saw varying combinations of stifling defence (approaching Storm-like levels) and some top-shelf attack (quite unexpected from a team with few skilled attacking players).

But both teams also had nagging doubts. Manly won at Cronulla last season, but that was against a severely depleted line-up: prior to last year, they hadn’t won at Cronulla since 1986. They lost to Cronulla back in Round 1 and have had troubles against the best teams at full strength (Melbourne, the Dragons) or capable teams playing a rare game at or near their best (Newcastle, New Zealand, Gold Coast). In short, when teams come close to matching Manly’s physical presence and endurance, they are nothing special. That said, this doesn’t happen very often.

Cronulla was missing several injured players for this game, most notably Greg Bird and while the aforementioned impressive wins were significant, they hadn’t come up against a team anywhere near the upper four since very early in the season. Manly and Melbourne were caught off-guard by Cronulla’s assault in these early rounds: Cronulla’s legitimacy as a premiership contender was in need of reinforcing in this game.

Cronulla’s disgraceful home record between 2006 and early 2008 has impacted significantly on crowds. Saturday night games at Cronulla used to mean regular crowds of above 15,000 with the occasional bumper crowd. Since late 2006, the average crowd fell to just under 11,000, but as the wins have continued, the somewhat sceptical Cronulla supporters (who can blame them?) have come out of the woodwork: 17,547 against Parramatta three weeks and almost 19,000 greeted Cronulla and Manly on Saturday night. For the first time since 2002, the Shire might be really getting behind Cronulla again.

Unfortunately, especially for those late to get back on to the bandwagon, Cronulla’s prospects for victory in this game fell to almost nil inside 20 minutes. This was THE worst possible outcome for Cronulla. Not only could this frighten the woodwork supporters away for another few months, it will provide further fuel for those who like to bring up / hope that Cronulla will enter yet another late-season tailspin.

Admittedly, this group has included the Tuesday Roast on several occasions (for those keeping score, Cronulla’s record after the accountants have sung Auld Lang Syne since 2003 is an anaemic 12 wins and 37 losses after Saturday night), but surely it’s fallacious to look back at Cronulla squads coached by nuffies such as Stuart Raper and Chris Anderson when compared to the current Ricky Stuart-coached line-up…isn’t it?

This will be seen, but Stuart would have been extremely disheartened by his team’s performance. What has been perhaps the best team at execution of their coach’s pre-match preparation and strategy turned into a bumbling mess on Saturday night. Silly, unnecessary and unforced penalties gave Manly a significant amount of attacking possession early on, while mistakes gifted Manly more attacking possession and the first two (simple) tries.

Some of these mistakes came from Paul Gallen, who, perhaps stung by having his captaincy taken away, tried very hard all game, but this desire saw him attempt to do things which others should be doing (such as playmaking and offloading). This was where the absence of Greg Bird hurt Cronulla the most. And of course there was Gallen’s bizarre exit up and out of the defensive line allowing Ballin to score Manly’s first try. At least the major frustration involved in such a thrashing didn’t lead him to do anything he may have regretted.

But Gallen was not alone. Misi Taulapapa… he may be athletic, but his high mistake rate (that’s the nicest way to put it) was significant in Cronulla’s long losing streak late last season. Maybe he too was stung by recent criticism (in his case, the cowardly assault on Alan Tongue’s ribs) but Manly targeted Taulapapa heavily and he had a terrible game. His off load just a few metres out of from his line fell into the waiting arms of Steve Matai and Manly’s second try came from the next tackle.

By now, Manly’s dominance on the game was total. Much is made of their excellent defensive statistics, but there is more to defence (at least for Manly) than moving up in a straight line, hitting hard, getting numbers into a tackle etc. For Manly (and one or two other teams at times), attack is a big part of defence. They were almost flawless in terms of holding on to the ball and finishing their sets: in doing so, their big pack wore down Cronulla. Matt Orford’s accurate kicking game meant a series of repeat sets and of course there’s the domination of possession which comes from outscoring your opponent four tries to nil in the first 20 minutes.

Manly had 70% of the ball during the game’s first 30 minutes. While possession usually evens out over the course of a game, the quality of possession doesn’t have to follow this. In other words, Cronulla was rendered almost useless with the ball due to the heavy defensive workload asked of them in the game’s first 20-30 minutes. Manly did much the same to the Origin-weakened Roosters in Round 13 and Cronulla nearly also experienced a 42-nil hammering.

After dominating the opening 15 or so minutes, Manly’s confidence was soaring. They had bashed Cronulla, so it was time to unleash some of their set plays. They threatened maybe twice with elaborate plays aimed at Cronulla’s left-side defence, but the next time hit the jackpot: Orford’s sleight-of-hand and involvement from Lyon and Bell sent Brett Stewart to the try-line almost untouched.

When Glen Stewart virtually did the same, Manly led 22-nil. Cronulla would almost have been forgiven here if the nimble Stewart stepped through some tiring defenders, but when replays showed fresh reserves De Gois and Nutley making feeble attempts at Stewart, it was a further black mark for the Sharks.

Finally Cronulla got over half-way, but a combination of the scoreboard, fatigue from Manly’s domination and panic saw their attack look nothing like the confident, set-play executing team of recent weeks. Instead, they ran hard then wide and Manly’s fresh defence moved with them. Their lack of imagination saw the great NRL fall-back option – the cross-kick – come out at the end of almost every set. Manly did concede one try, but it was hardly threatening.

In the early minutes of the second half, Cronulla spent some more time near Manly’s line: a try here might have given Manly some concerns, but the lack of variety and imagination (and continued signs of panic and trying to catch up 16 points at once) meant Cronulla never looked like scoring again. They defused a Manly attack, which meant a 20-metre restart, but took the gamble of trying to find the sideline down field (which would have meant a Sharks scrum feed) but this failed: more panic.

Manly added a few more tries to make sure of the result. Taulapapa’s poor night continued as he allowed Robertson to shrug him off for a try. Interestingly, with the result certain, Cronulla’s attack assumed a more normal structure in the game’s final 10-20 minutes. They ran some of their plays, but Manly kept their line intact.

It was a thorough thrashing from Manly, but the use of hyperbolic words such as ‘perfection’ and ‘premiership favouritism’ should be kept to a minimum. Sure, Manly could not have done much more in the first half, but Cronulla’s surprisingly poor effort was a major factor in their success. And until Manly come close to beating a full-strength Melbourne Storm, they should not enter into a rational discussion on favourites to win this year’s premiership. Des, feel free to use this whenever the pesky media continues to bug you on this matter.

In other Round 18 games, home was where the loss was. Cronulla’s abysmal home form over 2006 and 2007 has already been mentioned, but they have shown signs of emerging from this slump. But several other teams are in a frustrating pattern of poor home performance, resilient away win and then another poor home performance.

This adequately describes the recent plight of both Penrith and the Warriors. Penrith failed to take advantage of the Origin-weakened Brisbane a few weeks back but went to Parramatta Stadium and played far better in defeating the Eels. With the carrot of cementing a position in the top 8, they once again frustrated their loyal supporters.

How frustrating are the Panthers for their home supporters? The loss to Newcastle means they have won 5 of their last 22 home games and 14 of their last 40. They’ve also tasted success in just 2 of their last 13 home games as favourites with the bookmakers and 2 of their last 13 home games when coming off an away win: amazing. Penrith is better than this: a host of dumb plays at key times (again) hurt their chances for a rare home win.

That said, Newcastle showed a resolve they definitely possess but have shown far too rarely this season. It has been seen against some of the very best teams but also after 3-game losing streaks: Newcastle is now 3 wins and 0 losses coming off 3 losses this season. Kurt Gidley showed his endurance and versatility last week in the loss against the Dragons, but was even better in this game: a 5-star effort.

The Warriors won 9 straight minor premiership home games over late 2007 and early 2008 before losing to the Roosters in May. Since then, they’ve had 2 wins in Australia and no home wins in 3 attempts. They tried to make it 4 attempts without success against Feral Thurston and the rabble known as the Cowbores, but they ultimately failed: players such as Mannering, Luck and Wiki wouldn’t let their team lose again. However, players like Rovelli might as well have worn dark blue and white, as poorly as he played. He needs a spell in NSW Cup. Now.

Brisbane won only 8 of 18 home games between late 2006 and the start of 2008, but seemed to have overcome this with 5 wins out of 6 home games so far in 2008 (including several games without Lockyer). A home game against the beleaguered Bulldogs appeared to be a certain win for Brisbane: they were almost back at full strength after an unusually poor Origin period, while the Bulldogs were…the Bulldogs.

But the Bulldogs’ speed and most importantly their ability to forget about their capitulation last Monday night troubled the larger Broncos for much of this game. Brisbane was also let down by a slow start to both halves: the Bulldogs led by 12 with 30 minutes left. Brisbane came to life and exposed the Bulldogs’ defence where almost every other team has, but the Dogs held on for a huge upset.

Last night, the Tigers lost again at Campbelltown: they have won only 2 of their last 8 at Campbelltown. Melbourne was a bit off their game and the Tigers exposed some signs of weakness in the NRL’s best defence, but Inglis and, to a lesser extent, Slater were the difference between the teams. In an era of ever-improving athleticism, these two players exploit the slightest fault in a defensive line and the Tigers provided more than enough chances for them.

The Roosters and Dragons have been two of the best teams in the NRL so far this season and have enjoyed very good records at their home ground/s, but both suffered from a rare off game against under-strength but very committed opposition.

The Roosters have had two flat patches so far this season: in late April (when Newcastle and the Dragons overwhelmed them) and in early June (when Manly dominated them). As any stock price chartist will tell you, two points is enough for a trend and extrapolating this line meant a flat game coming soon. But it was hard to see it happening against a team like the Gold Coast, who put in incredible efforts against the Dragons and Manly in previous weeks but came up short. The Gold Coast has also had horrendous form out of Queensland: just 3 wins out of 14 games.

When the Roosters wiped out the Titans’ early lead and took their own 12-point lead to half-time (with no tries coming from kicks!), the threat from the resilient Titans appeared gone. Incredibly the Roosters failed to finish the job and allowed the Titans to score 3 tries and take an unlikely lead. Preston Campbell and Shannon Walker exploited the large Roosters forwards, but it was the Gold Coast forwards who provided the foundation for Campbell and Mat Rogers to lead the way for a famous, against-the-odds win.

At least the Dragons can’t say they threw away a lead in Sunday’s game against Canberra. The Raiders withstood early Dragons’ pressure and soundly defeated the winners of their last 7 games. While the Dragons have long been prone to defeats as heavy favourites and were probably due for a loss, it is also important to acknowledge Canberra’s major success over the Dragons since 2001 (they have lost only 2 of their last 12 against them) and Canberra’s strong record in recent years coming off a loss.

Lastly, Parramatta discovered they need more than to turn up and put in major effort for perhaps 40 minutes of a game to guarantee a win on Saturday night. They started strongly, but a 10-point lead was never going to make Souths feel too uncomfortable, especially as Parramatta was without Cayless and suffered injuries to Moi Moi and Mateo. As a consequence, Parramatta’s below par ability to sustain intensity and endurance was further weakened: they exhausted almost all of 10 interchanges just after the 60 minute mark.

This quality of Parramatta requires further inspection. In the latter years of Michael Hagan’s tenure at Newcastle, the Knights often used their interchange allotment faster than other teams and often used their allotment of 12 well before 80 minutes. While injuries often wreak havoc with interchange plans, it seems Hagan has brought this problem with him to Parramatta. Meanwhile, Newcastle’s fitness, intensity and endurance have all improved markedly under Brian Smith’s tenure.

While he probably wouldn’t be happy that some of his former players are suffering in this situation, one can only imagine that Jason Taylor is taking great delight in seeing Parramatta’s prospects looking grimmer under Michael Hagan’s leadership.

Souths’ confidence and momentum and Parramatta’s inability to sustain any pressure meant a Souths win was always the most likely outcome after the first 15-20 minutes.

Before this game, Parramatta might have looked forward to the challenge of taking on Manly (as they will this Friday night). Now, taking on the most physically imposing team in the NRL looks to be a challenge Parramatta is not capable of taking on (to put it mildly).

Still, every team in today’s NRL – even the Energizer Bunnies of the NRL, Manly and Melbourne – are prone to off days and losing when few expect them to do so. As was seen in Round 18 – and is quite likely to occur as the big-name teams get over any post-Origin fatigue and lesser teams take their final shots at the top-8 – home teams, favoured teams and even those playing the Cowbores are vulnerable. Stay tuned.

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