Monday 24 March 2008

What's wrong with (insert name of 2007 preliminary finalist)?

Melbourne, Manly, North Queensland and Parramatta: each of these teams played on the last weekend in September in 2007 and has been amongst the upper echelon teams in the NRL over the last 3 years. So why is it that these teams have a combined two wins thus far in 2008?

Let's start with Manly. The departure of Michael Monaghan - with the less skilful (in attack) Matt Ballin as his replacement - has been pointed to by most as a key reason behind Manly's winless record thus far, especially given their relatively meagre points scored tally.

But a glance at the stats reveals Manly's attack was never really that potent. Over the last 3 seasons, Manly has scored under 20 points in 10, 12 and 10 games respectively. So even when Matt Orford came to the club in 2006 (giving an extra attacking option), the number of games where Manly scored under 20 points actually increased.

Manly's defence improved significantly in 2007. Whereas they had only 8 and 10 games where they conceded under 20 points in 2005 and 2006 respectively, they had sixteen sub 20 point games in 2007 - and won ALL of them.

In 6 of these games, Manly also scored under 20 points. So, in 2007, Manly had a perfect 6 wins and 0 losses in games where both they and their opponent scored under 20 points (their controversial win over Newcastle in late 2006 meant Manly had a 7-game winning streak in games where both teams scored under 20 points prior to Round 1 2008).

So why have Manly lost their first 2 games in 2008, two tight low-scoring games which they thrived in last year? The loss of Monaghan is certainly a factor, but not nearly as important as many would have you believe.

A reason behind Manly's success over the last 3 years was simply that they worked harder than other teams. This was part of the legacy of the great Ben Kennedy, but also due to the club's emphasis on fitness (with the infusion of Delmege money allowing them to experience improved training infrastructure facilitating this). Often, Manly would be involved in a tough, even game but their superior strength, fitness, endurance or desire would be enough to get them home.

But in the first 2 rounds of this season, Manly seems to have come back to the pack in this area. There could be several reasons behind this, including the completion of their transition from the hunter to the hunted (and hence the motivation to work extremely hard on fitness being more difficult to maintain), the combination of the new interchange rules and the relatively lumpy nature of several Manly forwards, but also that they came up against two very motivated teams.

Manly's efforts have usually been good enough against similarly motivated teams in the past, but it's difficult in the parity-obsessed NRL to maintain such dominance over an extended period. In addition to Monaghan, Manly lost Chris Hicks, Travis Burns and are without Steve Matai at present.

Still....they really should have beaten Newcastle on Saturday night, despite Newcastle dominating possession for much of the game and Newcastle's persistent effort and intensity. Manly was somewhat unlucky to have several tries disallowed, but their approach to attack in this game was too conservative (despite the slippery conditions). Sightings of Brett Stewart, Anthony Watmough or Steve Menzies with the ball near the try-line were very infrequent.

Nevertheless, their defence was very solid and they had a 10-point lead inside the final 20 minutes. Former Newcastle sloth Josh Perry gave his former team two chances to tie the game late, first with a headbutt in a scrum, then with a dropped ball/overrun.

Even after Newcastle's Richard Fa'aoso tied the game, Manly had other chances to feast on Newcastle's inexperience and poor decision-making. Newcastle's option to run the ball on the last tackle in Golden Point could very well have blown up in their face, but Matt Orford's strip of the ball from Mullen gave Newcastle field position to win the game.

While adjusting to life without a second main attacking option will continue, Manly are not far away from their 2007 form. So long as they can maintain their intensity, their main point of emphasis in coming weeks should be for an attacking scheme with more variation and to also emphasise the proven threats of Stewart, Watmough and Menzies.

In contrast, North Queensland's defence has been absymal in 2008. Even compared to the final 18 games of last season, when their backrow was being held together by little more than Paddle Pop sticks and glue, they conceded more than 30 points only 5 times in their final 18 games. So conceding over 30 points in the season's first 2 games with their backrow back is...concerning (especially given that the Cowbores are usually fast starters to a season).

But their loss to the Tigers on Saturday night also featured a rather anaemic attacking effort. Feral Thurston had a solid game, but Matt Bowen only just outplayed Brett Hodgson (the heavily concussed version). The Cowbores were crying out for an attacking spark, but Bowen was nowhere to be found. Travis Burns tried hard but received very little ball, but almost every Cowbore contributed to a massive error count. To compound matters, most of these dropped balls or penalties whilst in possession (yes, I'm looking at you Luke "Slapper" O'Donnell) occurred near the Tigers' line.

The Cowbores dominated possession for much of the game, but scored only two tries altogether, then allowed the injury-hit Tigers to score with relative ease. Even when the Tigers were one man down in the aftermath of Slapper's stupid act, the Cowbores failed to trouble the scorer and surrendered meekly. Liam Fulton's re-enactment of Brett Kenny's match-sealing 1981 Grand Final try ended a miserable night for the Cowbores. They are the 2007 preliminary finalist with the most work to do.

Melbourne lost their first game at Olympic Park since late 2006 (and only the 12th time in 149 games in the team's history where they've lost while conceding less than 20 points) on Sunday afternoon. While they've had to endure a similar number of player losses as Manly, the players Melbourne lost during the off-season were not as important and their replacements are of a better quality (compared to Manly's).

Instead, Melbourne's problems are with injuries and with the aforementioned problem of sustaining a dominant performance becoming more difficult with each year in the parity-obsessed NRL. Cronulla gave the Storm their best shot - both figuratively (with the ball) and literally (with some hard-hitting defence) - and shocked the Storm to lead 14-0 early on.

Melbourne managed to come back to level the scores, but couldn't finish the job. Their composure and ability to win the close games - so good in 2006 and 2007 - faltered here. They failed to execute in a number of easy field-goal situations, whereas Cronulla - the close-game loss kings of 2007 - converted a field goal on their first attempt.

The very high level in intensity for much of this game - in addition to the almost-certain suspension of Brett White for his taking the law into his own hands (or fists) - could impact upon Melbourne over the next few weeks, but as they recover and get players such as Inglis, Crocker and Kaufusi back, they should be fine.

Of the 2007 preliminary finalists, Parramatta would feel the best at present. They are slow starters and usually capitulate under pressure, but their comeback win over the Bulldogs and a promising effort (despite what the scoreboard said) against the Warriors on Sunday are good signs for the year ahead.

They were without Nathan Hindmarsh on Sunday. A poor performance usually follows any announcement of his absence, but the team largely played well. Their main fault was a number of errors or plays giving the Warriors extra possession, usually in good field position, but most of these were the result of bad luck or good Warriors play.

In just his 2nd game at 5/8th, Feleti Mateo directed traffic, set up a try, came close to setting up several others, kicked well and looked like a veteran in the halves, while Jarryd Hayne had an excellent first game of the season. Some of the ball movement and athleticism (following very quick play-the-balls) was almost scary, but the Warriors are a difficult prospect in Auckland on a sunny Sunday afternoon. As Parramatta get their injured players back and move towards better and more consistent play, a successful season beckons.

The same can probably be said for the Roosters and Brisbane, traditional Good Friday night combatants. While the Roosters easily accounted for Souths last week, Brisbane was unlikely to be similarly swept aside. The Roosters' size and strength won the first half but they were a touch unlucky not to be further than 6 points in front, while Braith Anasta's unfortunate stumble in Karmichael Hunt's shoulder significantly reduced his impact on the remainder of the game.

But it was Brisbane's composure, structure and excellent gameplan which saw them control the second half. In contrast, the Roosters were put off by an opponent who didn't submit to their power: they appeared not to have a fall-back option in attack. Their effort was gallant, but they played as if they were far more than just 6 points behind. Brisbane skilfully utilised their quick players, to tire the Roosters' huge forward pack whilst gaining metres, then used their bigger men selectively. This was topped off by an excellent kicking game and general display of leadership from Peter Wallace.

In contrast, South Sydney and the Bulldogs served up a tight but poor-quality game across town on Friday night. These two teams look set for a difficult early 2008, although for quite different reasons. Souths dominated most of the first half but only had 12 points to show for it. Matt Utai's late try cut the lead to 6, but his injury-induced exit from the game eliminated an avenue for South Sydney points (his sternum injury made his usual weakness under the high ball an outright liability).

The Bulldogs' comeback continued, but it was hardly award-winning attack. However, the ongoing absence of Souths' solid 2007 defence (although Souths' unusual interchange pattern may have had something to do with this) saw the Bulldogs catch then overtake Souths, but any time Souths attacked, they looked a chance against the immobile Bulldogs' defence. The Dogs held on, summoning their experience, but it was an unconvincing game all round.

Luckily for these two teams, Penrith and Canberra were far worse in the early Saturday game. These two teams, on their day, are capable of far more than Souths or the Bulldogs, but the incredible amount of inconsistency, poor play and mistakes... Penrith played roughly 20 minutes of solid rugby league in this game and probably should have led 22-12 at the end of it. Brash youngster Jarrod Sammut continued the impressive start to his NRL career, this time at half-back, driving the Panthers' attack.

Two bone-headed plays by Paul Aiton cost Penrith Sammut's excellent try and a late penalty, so a 10-point lead was instead just a 2-point lead. But the 2nd half...it was bone-headed plays galore. Penrith rarely ventured out of their own half due to self-induced mistakes, while Canberra could only convert this glut of quality field position into one try. The slippery conditions and more Canberra injuries contributed somewhat to this mess of a game, but most players involved should deny involvement in this game if ever questioned about it.

Further embarrassment was heaped upon Penrith and Canberra players after the Dragons and Titans played in far worse conditions on Monday night but recorded far fewer mistakes. But surely the greatest shock of the night was the Dragons playing at a level nearing their potential for much of this game. For once, their gameplan was mostly executed, their plays were run well (especially in their kicking game) and it was the opponent who was ill-disciplined and gave away silly penalties.

While this rare display of excellent play from the Dragons will provide immediate satisfaction for supporters, job security for coach Nathan Brown and a basis for future weeks, in reality this is the NRL's version of the poisoned chalice. Despite ever-increasing resources being devoted to improving the level of play around the league, the number of teams exhibiting sustained consistent play remains roughly the same and is being pressured by the feasible but low salary cap, the continued growth in the speed and intensity of the game (and the impact of these on premature career ends) and the relative attractiveness of England and Rugby Union.

On those rare occasions when a highly talented but mentally unstable team (the best examples of which are the Dragons, Panthers, Warriors and, to a lesser extent, Parramatta, but almost all teams bar Melbourne and Brisbane suffer from this phenomenon at some point) performs near its best, this only leads to frustration when subsequent displays are not near this level. Frustration from players, supporters, administrators, but most importantly tipsters. There are many tipsters hurting badly after Round 2, as their visions of highly rated teams performing well were almost all not realised.

How difficult can it be to tip in recent years? Despite winning the wooden spoon last year and being thrashed in Round 1, Penrith's loss on Saturday night made it TEN consecutive games (back to late 2006) where they've lost despite favouritism with the bookies.

Frustration is more evident amongst the 2007 preliminary finalists than it has been for some time, but their fortunes should improve from here. North Queensland are in the worst position amongst the four: their trip to Suncorp Stadium on Friday could even be a season-determining game. Stay tuned...

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