Monday 31 March 2008

Round 3: It's difficult to be consistent: Instalment I (or how I learned to stop worrying about form and love playing at home)

In the parity-obsessed NRL, putting a series of wins - or even a series of strong performances - together can be a very difficult task.

The ongoing stability in the salary cap (further widening the disparity between wages in the NRL and England/Rugby Union), years of rules changes favouring the combination of improved speed, strength and endurance in NRL players (thus resulting in more injuries and early retirements) and the addition of the Gold Coast Titans have combined to remove between 3 and 5 players from most NRL squads in recent years.

Most of these players fit into the veteran category (as those players nearing the end of their career are more likely to chase $$$ in England or be forced out of the game due to insufficient size/ speed or the wear and tear of injuries), meaning younger - and usually more inconsistent - players are thrust into positions of importance before their time.

As a result, most teams have thinner depth and less experience than in previous eras and even the very best teams can look inferior with just a few injuries.

So playing consistently in today's NRL is difficult enough. But when you're forced to back up after one of the most intense games in recent years, playing at a level near your best is nigh on impossible. Just ask Melbourne and Cronulla.

On Easter Sunday, Cronulla, emboldened by their win at Brookvale in Round 1, travelled to Melbourne and dominated Melbourne in the early minutes. The proud Storm responded in kind after falling behind 14-0 and the semi-final levels of intensity continued throughout the game.

However, the Storm's failure to win this game, despite repeated opportunities, was put down, in part, to the fatigue resulting from Cronulla's early assault.

Given this outcome, the last team Melbourne would have wanted to play in Round 3 was the Roosters. The Roosters may not be the most skilful team in the NRL, but they are among the largest and most intense.

The Roosters' credibility in the Fittler era was established with a thrashing of Melbourne in late 2007; they knew how to play to defeat Melbourne. Like the 2007 game, the Roosters dominated the early minutes, thanks to strong forward play and a lack of errors which gave Melbourne very little to work with (in terms of field position).

However, some excellent last-ditch Melbourne defence and a bit of bad luck meant the Roosters only posted one try during this time. As a result, the game was still up for grabs after the hour mark, when Melbourne finally got some penalties and some significant attacking field position.

They finally crossed the line and remarkably had a chance to win the game (directly due to a refereeing mistake) but the Roosters held on. The lingering effects of Easter Sunday and the size, strength and possession advantage of the Roosters meant it was too difficult for the Storm to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in 2 years.

Cronulla's task on Saturday night was probably not as difficult as Melbourne's, but they were missing two key forwards from a squad not blessed with the depth of the big-name teams and were coming off tough wins over last year's grand finalists. The Gold Coast was coming off a Monday night game - so just a 5-day turnaround - and looked rather lifeless against the Dragons, but returning home gave a boost to their game.

Their forward pack - considered somewhat understrength by many - gave an excellent account of themselves, but it was the typically top-shelf kicking game of Scott Prince and ill-discipline and poor ball control by Cronulla which saw the Coast dominate possession for most of the game.

Cronulla did very well to keep the Coast scoreless to half-time and also to convert a rare opportunity and take a 4-nil lead to the break, but once former Shark Mat Rogers scored the Coast's first try, Cronulla's resistance gave way quickly.

Gold Coast would have been very happy to defeat a highly-ranked opponent, but the challenge for them is to play more like this each week. Or alternatively, to post a significant win away from Robina.

After making back to back preliminary finals in 2005 and 2006, the St George Illawarra Dragons have struggled mightily for consistency. They won back to back games only once in 2007 (from 9 opportunities) despite having some of the best players in the game and defeating preliminary finalists Manly and Parramatta.

Their performance against the Gold Coast last Monday night was not far off their optimum, despite the inclement conditions, and they started their Saturday night game in Canberra in a similar fashion. The Dragons have some of the best kick plays in the NRL: the cross kick for Jason Nightingale early in the tackle count caught Canberra off guard and meant a fast start for the Dragons. Another kick for Nightingale resulted in another try and a 14-6 lead late in the first half.

But Canberra, while not of the same skill level as most teams they play, are usually more committed than their opponents and that was the case in this game. More often than not they took advantage of Dragons' mistakes or penalties and their 2 first-half tries were more due to effort (and some lazy Dragons' defence) than brilliance or execution.

With the game up for grabs early in the second half, Canberra, as they often do at home, continued to grind their way towards a win. They smartly attacked Dragons' halfback Jamie Soward in the defensive line and came away with two fairly soft tries early in the second half to take a 20-14 lead.

While a young team like Canberra is also prone to inconsistency, they were fortunate enough to win in Penrith last week (despite playing poorly for much of the game) but also to be playing at home for the first time in 2008. They had chances to put the Dragons away earlier, but finally did so in the last two minutes.

The Dragons have now won just 2 of their last 11 games against Canberra and lost their last 6 games at Bruce Stadium. Dragons' supporters must wish Canberra could show at least some inconsistency against their team.

Much like how Canberra backed up a sloppy win with victory over a high-flying opponent, the Bulldogs disposed of the Wests Tigers on Sunday afternoon. The Bulldogs looked extremely vulnerable for long periods against the hapless Bunnies on Good Friday, but finished with what can now be viewed as a morale-boosting win.

Despite trailing at half time and having only a 2-point lead with about 25 minutes left, the Bulldogs looked far better than the listless Tigers. The Tigers stayed close due to a solid effort, but a combination of being out of sync, having difficulty backing up after a very good win in steamy Townsville and the Bulldogs' persistence in attack and defence meant a 3rd win to start the season was always quite unlikely.

That said, most of the game's breaks seemed to fall the Bulldogs' way. Getting limbs in the way of grubber kicks can lead to a wide variety of outcomes, but for Sonny Bill Williams, his two grubber-kick stops led to important Bulldogs' possession and a long-range try respectively. Also, one of the many Tigers' mistakes deep in attack - a dropped ball by Todd Payten - fell fortuitously to Andrew Ryan, who returned the ball back over half-way.

Bulldogs' supporters, in response, would probably point to a long-range try being called back for a questionable forward pass, repeated Daniel Holdsworth dropped ball and the usually reliable Hazem El Masri missing 2 shots at goal.

In the end, the Bulldogs were deserved winners. A matchup against the Roosters will provide a further test for them, but the Tigers will be left wondering what might have been, after they systematically dismantled a much-stronger Bulldogs lineup in 2007. Brett Hodgson and Robbie Farah's less than 100% status probably didn't help here, but Tim Sheens would have loved an experienced mind (and body) to guide his team around on Sunday and remind them of how they achieved past success against the Bulldogs.

Experience in the playmaking positions didn't seem to count for much in Brisbane on Friday night, where suddenly-young Broncos (minus Karmichael Hunt and Darren Lockyer) took on the Cowbores and their established playmaking partnership on Feral Thurston and Matt Bowen.

The Cowbores enjoyed some significant attacking possession in the first 20 minutes or so of this game, but desperate and intense Brisbane defence (featuring the possibly stupid but very brave Ben Hannant) kept them to just 2 points.

From here, Brisbane - guided around by the 23-game veteran Peter Wallace - took control. Wallace's kicking game provided field position, a repeat set and then the first try. This was apparently enough for the Cowbores, who capitulated, but Brisbane deserve much credit for their brilliant performance without their two best attacking players.

It is a shame we won't get to see how the 2008 Broncos evolve, as the departure of Wayne Bennett at season's end and the probable departure of a number of fringe or up-and-coming players (to facilitate the salary of newly-signed Israel Folau) will mean a much different look from 2009 onwards. Still, there are 23 rounds plus the finals series to watch on and admire what could be perhaps the best Wayne Bennett coaching job.

Friday night's other game featured another coach who could be in the early stages of a rebuilding job (with similar eventual success) as Bennett. Brian Smith came under significant pressure last season - from the media, fans and even his own players - for his unsubtle gutting of the Newcastle Knights' playing roster. But 3 games into the season and Newcastle now looks a team on the rise, despite the absence of hard-working veteran Steve Simpson.

That said, Newcastle is now a much younger team and this was seen on Friday as they took on Parramatta, especially on the defensive end, where Parramatta - whenever they had their minds on the job - looked very dangerous.

But the slow-starting Eels were almost as bad without the ball. Eric Grothe was caught out a number of times incorrectly choosing his moment to come in off his wing. Who says experience makes for smarter plays and a higher standard of play??? Despite having been in the NRL since 1999, Grothe looks like he could play until he's 50 and still not understand the basics of defending on the wing.

This game could have almost had a basketball or AFL scoreline were it not for handling errors and some desperate last-ditch defence, but while Newcastle was unable to stop Parramatta, Parramatta seemed disinterested in stopping Newcastle at times. Michael Hagan suggested the tough game against the Warriors last Sunday made this a difficult contest for them, but after years of slow season starts by the Eels, it's hard to give his theory too much credence.

Even when Newcastle took a deserved 22-20 lead late on, Parramatta's play showed few signs of intensity. They equalised via a penalty, before Newcastle took the lead again with a field goal.

After the scoreboard knotted, Newcastle seemingly had the edge: their impressive young halves combination of Mullen and Dureau are both more than adequate field goal kickers, but in the end they were shown up by...Nathan Cayless?! His left-foot special not surprisingly was unexpected by Newcastle and tied the game again.

Finally, Newcastle showed their age, as they executed another field goal attempt poorly and failed to get a shot at all from the ensuing dropout. Then, a simple dropped ball from a curious Parramatta kick gave Parramatta the chance to win the game.

It was an opportunity lost for Newcastle, but Brian Smith would have budgeted for his young team to do some learning as this season progresses. Michael Hagan on the other hand... well, he would give a measured response and decide to keep things the same as his predecessor had them.

Despite enjoying a strong reputation in the NRL coaching fraternity prior to arriving at Penrith, Matthew Elliott risks being tarred with a similar brush. In the latter years of John Lang's tenure at Penrith, rampant inconsistency (and significant potential) made Penrith an increasingly frustrating venture for supporters and tipsters alike. Elliott was supposed to be a fresh face, a new voice who would put life into the players and bring the 2003 premiers back into contention.

Instead, if anything, Elliott has taken the Panthers backwards. A team with the potential of Penrith should have thrashed the injury-hit Raiders in Round 2. For 20 minutes or so, they dominated, but putting back to back 20 minute periods, let alone halves or games, is too much for Penrith.

With the arrival of the struggling Souths, surely Penrith couldn't blow it again and in doing so lose their ELEVENTH consecutive game as favourites with the bookmakers? They did give it their best shot - to win and to lose. Perhaps the best example of wasted potential on the Panthers, Frank Pritchard, teased supporters again by tearing up Souths' right-side defence and being primarily responsible for their 22-6 halftime lead.

Then came the inevitable letdown. Another mistake-riddled second half let Souths back into the game, but Penrith did just enough (or didn't do just enough, depending on your perspective). Souths showed signs of their 2007 play, but some untimely errors and penalties allowed a Penrith escape.

Penrith is sure to be outsiders with the bookmakers for their Round 4 clash with the Tigers, but this can often be the best time to tip them. Watch as they will likely give a much better account of themselves when few expect them to perform well.

After Manly's unusually slow start to the season, expectations were high that they'd record their first win last night against the Warriors, but not perhaps as high as they should have been. Some seriously thought Manly could be 0 wins and 3 losses, with 2 losses at Brookvale.

New Zealand started somewhat promisingly, but the injury to David Vaealiki was a blessing in disguise for Manly, as it meant a move back to his natural position (centre) for Jamie Lyon. Lyon was far more effective than in previous weeks, but his move nearer to the perimeter of the field was joined by a much more aggressive Manly attack. Orford turned back the clock and took on the defence with his running game, Stewart got much more involved from the back while Watmough caused problems on the edges of the Warriors' defence.

It took over 15 minutes, but Stewart's first try from a well-worked scrum play was quickly joined by two tries from winger Michael Robertson (after excellent work from Orford and Lyon respectively). Robertson went on to score a third try in the second half. One can only imagine the celebrations in Manly dressing rooms after the game. Let's hope, for the kids out there, that these celebrations aren't uploaded to YouTube...

With their long-lost confidence back, Manly went on to smash the Warriors, who most likely suffered from playing their first two games against difficult opponents and in very warm conditions.

So that brings an end to Round 3, where early season inconsistency was widely seen, but also where the home teams won every game (for only the 4th time since 2002). Obviously, there is a fairly strong link between early season inconsistency and playing at home, but to expect this link to remain consistent for too much longer is probably asking a bit much of many teams.

See you next week.

Read More...