Tuesday 1 July 2008

Round 16: More Pre-Origin Goodness (Or how the Origin-weakened finally stood up for themselves)

Round 16 was the third and final pre-State of Origin round for 2008. Whereas, in previous years, these rounds saw various methods of playing less club games (extra byes or split rounds), it was decided for 2008 that all teams should play in pre-Origin rounds (with the byes being shifted to the rounds played immediately after State of Origin games).

It was revealed last week that this idea came from the clubs/coaches and not from the NRL. It was also revealed last week that the draw for 2009 will contain byes in the pre-Origin rounds once again. Add yet another one to the rather lengthy list of rules or administrative changes due to suggestions from clubs,coaches or players which is found to suck, leading to a hasty and embarrassing reversion to its original arrangement. The NRL: where the inmates run the asylum.

While it appears sanity has prevailed relating to the scheduling of NRL games and byes during the Origin period, it will limit what becoming a quite interesting analysis of NRL teams and how they fare without their Origin players (vis a vis the fortunes of teams with less or none Origin players). Over the first 2 pre-Origin rounds, the teams who experienced less of an impact (strictly in terms of number of players absent) from State of Origin compared to their opponents won 10 out of 14 games (there were 2 games in these rounds where no players from either team were absent due to State of Origin): a winning percentage of 71%.

Conveniently for tipsters looking for a sure thing, each game in Round 16 had a team missing some significant players to Origin duty up against a team missing fewer (or none) significant players to Origin duty. Not surprisingly, each of these less affected teams was made favourites by betting websites, but ultimately only half of these teams were successful. Also, several of those teams with relatively greater Origin representation gave a much better account of themselves than many thought possible.

In short, Origin-hit teams made a stand in Round 16 and what could have been a rather mundane round was surprisingly entertaining (or at least more interesting).

Channel 9 would have been especially pleased about this: their 3 Round 16 games looked quite unappealing. Once upon a time, Brisbane had such depth they could field a team in pre-Origin rounds that would have been competitive over the course of a full season. But the ongoing work of the salary cap and several other factors have thinned Wayne Bennett's squad of depth of talent and experience. Hence, in these pre-Origin rounds, their best hope is for a low-scoring grind of a game, where they can work hard, jag a few tries through hard work and hope to hold on.

Luckily, their opponent was Penrith - owners of a 5 win and 15 loss record at home since late 2006 - who had a fair bit more talent that Brisbane, but much less experience. When it became apparent there was a heavy dew at Penrith on Friday night, Brisbane would have been delighted. Opponents of Penrith in the 1970s and 1980s - when the combination of a sunny day but a mysteriously heavy track (often due to someone mistakenly leaving the hose all night) would often greet a visiting team to Penrith Park - would have been smiling.

Not surprisingly, the game took over 20 minutes to get going. For Penrith, this was always going to happen down their left hand side, where the enigmatic Frank Pritchard and his talented teammates in Michael Jennings and Luke Rooney had a distinct advantage. Penrith took the lead down the left with a long-range effort which brought the game to life, but this play signalled the end of Luke Rooney's game, making Penrith's job somewhat harder.

Brisbane's confidence gradually grew as they realised they had a great chance to win (and to inflict another pre-Origin win over Penrith at Penrith almost a year to the day since they last achieved this task). As the clock ran towards 80 minutes and Penrith's patience started to wear thin (and they botched several try-scoring chances), it looked like another disappointing Penrith home effort.

Finally, Penrith successfully attacked down their left hand side and tied the game, but couldn't regain the lead over the remaining minutes of normal time or extra time. The absence of Luke Priddis and the lack of experience in the halves or at fullback was painfully apparent here. The confidence of first-gamer Lachlan Coote was admirable, but his efforts came to nought (both kicks for goal and field goals). Meanwhile, Brisbane had one concerted effort to win the game in extra time, but Shane Perry missed a good chance at field goal.

The ineptness and lack of experience meant a draw was the final result. The battle between skill and guts became quite interesting as the game went on, but the two teams probably could still be playing and be locked at 12-all.

In Friday night's other game, the Bulldogs gave a far better account of themselves than their dreadful showing last week against Canberra, but once the almost reserve grade Roosters team got their game going, the Bulldogs looked about as likely to score as Penrith or Brisbane.

Admittedly, the Bulldogs were quite unlucky to lose 2 players to injury (the loss of big Hickey was particularly noticed against the still-large Roosters' forward pack) during the game and the Roosters also benefitted from two questionable video referee decisions in the second half (although they were denied a fair try from the video referee in the first half), but it was a highly impressive performance from the Roosters. Their forwards dominated and their makeshift halves combination of Aubusson and Sa (with Famous Amos chiming in every so often) provided the pinpoint kicking game which leads to so many Roosters' tries.

The magnitude of Melbourne's player losses during these pre-Origin games has been well documented but they almost followed the Roosters' lead (from before Origin 1) and inflicted defeat on an almost full-strength Parramatta team on Sunday afternoon. To be fair to Parramatta though, they have a disturbing tendency to lose games to significantly understrength opponents, so for them to hold on for the narrow victory here was...all that was needed. Parramatta's coach (Michael Hagan) and captain (Nathan Cayless) admitted as much after the game.

The New Zealand Warriors were "only" missing Steve Price and Brent Tate, but a Warriors win on Sunday afternoon at Leichhardt was almost considered as unlikely as a Melbourne win. But the Warriors have a good record against the Tigers and when the Tigers started slowly for the third consecutive week, the Warriors took advantage.

The Leichhardt faithful helped bring the Tigers right back into the game - the Warriors' 16 point lead was eliminated early in the second half - but they couldn't sustain this effort and the Warriors' confidence wasn't harmed. They spread the ball within their own half, forced a poor decision from Beau Ryan which led to a great try to Lance Hohaia. After the Tigers lost the ball not far from their line, a barnstorming run by Sam Rapira looked like sealing the win for the Warriors.

As many started leaving Leichhardt in an attempt to beat the traffic, the Tigers almost forced extra time as Taniela Tuiaki barrelled along the left-hand touchline, but Brett Hodgson's missed conversion after the siren gave the Warriors a deserved win.

But the best performance by a team who was more affected by State of Origin than their opponent came last night as Cronulla absorbed Canberra's best in the opening 20 minutes of both halves before scoring points almost at will to record a 36-24 victory. Interestingly, Canberra's Best (Colin Best) crashed to earth with a thud after looking like the worl's best left centre in far too easy wins over the Bulldogs and Brisbane. This win moved Cronulla's away record to 7 wins and 2 losses and they have won all 3 pre-Origin games: both remarkable stats for a team with so little "on paper" talent (without their Origin players Bird and Gallen). Give Ricky Stuart the Coach of the Year award now.

It was a mix of well-run set plays, a well-executed kicking game and the excellent dummy-half play of Isaac De Gois which were the main factors behind Cronulla scoring 6 tries for only the second time in the Ricky Stuart era, while Luke Covell had a brilliant game at winger, kicking all 6 conversion attempts and making numerous big plays on the wing both with and without the ball.

Much of the above two paragraphs of glowing praise haven't been synonomous with Cronulla's style of play since John Lang's teams, but there was one moment in last night's game which left a bad taste in everyone's mouth. In Alan Tongue's case, that taste was probably blood. As Tongue was helping to tackle a Cronulla player in the second half, Cronulla winger Misi Taulapapa decided Tongue was out of line and gave Tongue a shot in the ribs (which left Tongue with rib cartilage damage and prematurely ended his time in last night's game). With Canberra already two men down with injury, Taulapapa's cheap shot made a comeback that much more difficult for the Raiders (although it was hard to see them winning in any event).

Taulapapa may be just another dumb rugby league player, but even he knows to hit an opposing player when he's not looking is the most effective way to end his involvement in the game. Ricky Stuart would have been proud as punch: the many hours of thug training (led by Bird and Gallen) finally paid off. Taulapapa's cowardly act was probably worse than Riley Brown's on Craig Wing in Round 1.

Wing finally returned to the field after his Round 1 injury as Souths looked for their third win in a row against the understrength Cowbores in Townsville. Souths enjoyed a mountain of possession early but couldn't convert any of it into points. The Cowbores were missing one of the best attacking organisers in the game in Feral Thurston, but still managed to score 2 tries in the first half before adding 3 more early in the second.

At 28-4, the game looked over, but Souths came back from deficits (although not nearly as large as this) in their previous 2 wins: they appeared unfazed at the giant task ahead of them. This was probably due to the increasing signs of tiredness in the Cowbores' defence. Souths responded with 3 tries of their own in 8 minutes not long after falling behind 24. Each try came quite easily and the Cowbores were fading fast.

While it took Souths another 15 or so minutes to tie the game, it was far too easy a try to concede for a team who desperately needed to win to try and avoid the wooden spoon. After Isaac Luke hit another tricky conversion to tie the game, a lost ball by Fetuli Talanoa near half-way meant a critical decision had to be made. The decision of an illegal strip gave Souths the field position to take the lead. Once again, the ease of this task was surprising. It was almost too easy: it took Souths almost 2 minutes to correctly set up a field goal play.

The Cowbores almost parlayed their improved kick-off tricks (as seen in the Melbourne game last week) into an extra time game but Anthony Watts couldn't get his after-the-siren attempt over the onrushing defence. It was an incredible comeback win by Souths - although they tried their hardest to throw it away on several occasions.

The same could almost be said about St George Illawarra's win over the Gold Coast. Despite Nathan Brown's negative post-game comments, the Gold Coast played their best game in several months: a significant fact given the absence of a host of important players to Origin and injury. It took the Dragons until well into the second half before they were able to gain control in this game, despite a very high completion rate and some well-executed attack (especially the bombing of Gold Coast winger Ben Jeffery).

The Dragons' lead stretched to 8 before several howling Dragons' mistakes happened. First, the offload from Lagi Setu towards an unsuspecting Jason Ryles. Mat Rogers saw this unfold and intercepted it to cut the lead to 4 points. Then, in the game's dying minutes, it was Ryles again who forced an unnecessary offload and turned over possession not far from the Dragons' line. Both teams were very tired by this stage and the Dragons looked certain to concede another try, but a dropped ball by Michael Hodgson saved what was an otherwise very good game from Ryles from being forgotten.

Lastly, the Buderus and Gidley-less Newcastle Knights fell behind to Manly but things looked promising for them at half time. They trailed only by 2 points (it could have been far worse) and Manly appeared to have some significant injury concerns (Matai and Watmough).

But ultimately Newcastle had next to no chance. Matai and Watmough played on and Manly efficiently disposed of the Knights. How is it that a team faring as well as Manly can have only one Origin representative? The Tigers benefitted from a lack of Origin players in 2005 but they did it with having a high number of New Zealand representatives: Manly don't even have this. To continue a winning culture after several years where intensity is a major factor is a credit to Manly coach Des Hasler.

While Newcastle was handily beaten, as a whole the Origin-affected teams gave a far better account of themselves in the third pre-Origin round of 2008. It might cost needy clubs money and give TV networks less to promote, but these pre-Origin rounds can often be the beginning of successful careers as well as provide ongoing evidence of rugby league's ability to remain strong in times of adversity.

There you go... A far too infrequent positive Tuesday Roast to end the financial year. Regular service I'm sure will resume next week.

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