Tuesday 8 May 2012

Round 9 – Roast Not About Bl**dy NSW Origin Team

Ongoing discussion about the possible composition of the NSW Origin team has reached plague proportions, with every eligible player who shows any inkling of potential mentioned by inane media types as a chance of making the team. In the first of a four-part series (including mid-week editions), this week’s Roast will sort the wheat from the chaff and rate all 375 eligible players……

Ahem: nobody (with the possible exceptions of certain annoying News Ltd. journalists looking to attract website hits and sell papers) is interested in this.

Instead, this week’s Roast will get about as far away from Origin whilst still talking about the game itself: here are some interesting stats from each game in Round 9.

Parramatta v. Canterbury

Some were concerned coming into this game that Parramatta’s incredible 30-point outburst at the end of last Sunday’s game would feed into this game. This did happen – like last Sunday’s game, Parramatta looked very good for about 15 minutes. The rest of the time, the opposition walked all over them.

The Geigh-FL may be on to something here… – Friday’s game at Homebush attracted a crowd of over 28 thousand. Despite the pathetic form of the Eels, this is well above the capacity of Parramatta Stadium. Parramatta has shifted home games against the Bulldogs to the much-larger ANZ Stadium since 2008 and in only one of these games would the crowd have been able to fit into Parramatta Stadium. Given the rubbish form some Eels (and Bulldogs) teams have served up during this time, it indicates the strong level of support for these teams and their games need to be played at larger stadiums.

Ultimately, the same will be realised by many of Sydney’s other teams and the gradual shift towards the Melbourne AFL model (two major and one minor stadium/s for all teams) will be seen. However, there are some factors in Sydney which will extend and complicate this process (e.g. Shire and Manly residents not wanting to cross Tom Ugly’s/Captain Cook or Spit/Forestville Bridges (respectively)). But in the end, the money will talk (to all clubs).

North Queensland v. St George Illawarra

The combination of the Cowboys bouncing back from the poor start to their last game and the emotional come-down for the Dragons after their amazing comeback win on ANZAC Day meant this contest was only ever going to go one way. North Queensland halfback Feral Thurston again disgraced himself and the game of Rugby League with his second-half head-butting of Matt Prior’s forearm. Prior was certainly frustrated, but (rugby league cliché alert) “it’s not his go” (has it ever been anyone’s go? Ever?). Prior may ask out of the Dragons’ next trip to Townsville; in 2009, he cost the Dragons victory with a poor pass in the dying seconds.

Cowboys’ bounce-back-ability – Since the start of last season, the Cowboys now have an 11-2 win-loss record coming off a loss. This could be interpreted in several ways: they are good at establishing where they are not playing well and rectifying this quickly, or that they lose too many games for a team with such talent.

Long turnaround between games – This was one of three games in Round 9 where there was a difference of 3 or more days between the two teams’ turnaround between matches. Before this season, of the 58 games played since 2007 between teams with a 3-plus day difference in their turnaround (not including teams coming off a bye), it was 29-all.

But before Round 9, the 6 games in 2012 where one team had 3 or more days of rest compared to their opposition had all been won by the rested team. While the well-rested Melbourne and the Roosters won in Round 9, the Dragons became the first loser this season to have 3 or more days of rest greater than their opposition.

For some reason, teams with 9 days of rest (as the Dragons had) fare have fared rather poorly against teams on 6 days of rest (as the Cowboys had) since 2008. The 9 day-rested teams now have just a 9-14 win-loss record over the 6 day-rested teams during this time.

New Zealand v. Brisbane

After falling behind midway through the first half, the Warriors blitzed Brisbane with three tries to before halftime. Brisbane fought back, but Peter Wallace’s injury in the first half meant Brisbane’s last-tackle options were, to put it nicely, rubbish in the second half, hampering their comeback hopes.

Warriors’ dominance over Brisbane in Auckland – with this win, New Zealand has now won 8 of their last 11 games over Brisbane in Auckland. The Warriors weren’t quite as vicious in this game as they were in several famous wins over the more star-studded Broncos in the early 2000s, but they weren’t far off.

Gold Coast v. Wests Tigers

Gold Coast was equal or ahead of the Tigers until the game’s final play: a tough way to lose and they probably deserved much better. Wests were well off their game and took some time to show signs that they cared, let alone do something constructive.

Somehow the Tigers lucked their way into extra-time (which seemed highly unlikely after Benji Marshall screwed up yet another attacking opportunity when he encouraged the almost-exhausted Murdoch-Masila to try and run another 30 metres after just having run 60) and a Gold Coast mistake early on gifted the Tigers the win.

Home Sick Home – after this loss, the Titans have now won 1 of their last THIRTEEN games. They had won 29 of their first 42 games at Skilled Park. At least they seem to have uncovered a new halfback in Aidan Sezer, who tormented the Tigers with an excellent kicking game. This means they could try and flog off Scott Prince in their asset sale. He is on the nose, but he has more than scrap value. Lote Tuqiri on the other hand…. stick a fork in him, he’s done.

Golden Point points – There have been 1752 NRL regular season games since the introduction of the golden point in 2003; 62 of these have now gone to golden point. That works out at one golden point game every 28 or so games. How many games had passed since the Tigers choked against Souths (i.e. the previous golden point game)? 28 – amazing! Get the house on Warriors v Storm in Round 13 to go beyond 80 minutes…

Also, Robbie “semi foinals!!!!!!!!!!!!” Farah became the 10th NRL player to win multiple golden point (regular season) games. He joins this elite club with others such as Jarrod Sammut and Chris Sandow-Now.

Penrith v. Melbourne

While Penrith probably have the least talent of any NRL team, they, unlike the Eels and Titans, are heading in the right direction. Led by the tireless Luke Lewis (who leads Penrith in runs, offloads, tackles and whinges), they put in a big effort against Melbourne. They still lost heavily but they were not embarrassed.

Home Sick Home Part 2 – this loss was Penrith’s 8th in a row at home – a club record. Still, it’s probably not as bad as their putrid run between August 2006 and July 2008, when they won 5, drew 1 and lost 16. That team had far more talent than this one does.

The way to beat the Storm: score more than 20 – Penrith had the right idea early on with their expansive attack looking many times better than it did in previous weeks. Still, they only managed 10 points. Under Craig Bellamy, Melbourne’s win-loss-draw record when keeping their opponent under 20 points or getting to 20 points first is 167 wins, 21 losses and 1 draw (for a win percentage of 88%). When Melbourne has conceded 20 points or not gotten to 20 points first against an opponent under Bellamy, their win-loss record is 2 wins and 55 losses (win percentage of 3.5%).

Manly v. Canberra

A decent-sized Manly win looked on the cards on Sunday, but Canberra, in spite of so many injuries, was surprisingly resilient and if not for some dubious refereeing decisions in the final 10 or so minutes, might have taken this game to extra time.

Manly held on for the win, but looked to really need the typically strong Brookvale Oval support. It seems that in their current injury-and-suspension-hit state, putting back-to-back games together is something of a reach.

Hard to bounce-back away from home – Canberra was looking for their second away win (after losing at home) this season, but (not including 2010) they had lost their previous 13 attempts at doing this dating back to 2007. Their record since 2007 in trying to win away after losing at home is 6 wins and 14 losses.

Any chance of revenge? – Canberra has had a few wins at Brookvale in recent years but many more losses. However, they have had very few chances to make life tough for Manly on a freezing cold night in Canberra. Manly again missed out on a game in Canberra in 2012; this makes only 2 of the past 7 seasons where Manly has played Canberra in Canberra (with one of these (2008) being a sunny Sunday afternoon).

Sydney Roosters v. Newcastle

The Roosters figured to be primed for a big game after having victory stolen from them late on by the Dragons on ANZAC Day. However, it took a while longer than many expected for this to eventuate; the short-handed Knights proved quite stubborn, although without Buderus and Gidley, they missing much of their guidance in attack and rarely looked like scoring.

50/50s – so much of Rugby League is about ‘50/50s’, be it difficult calls, the split of possession or the win-loss record of about half the teams in each year’s competition. Both the Knights and the Roosters came into this game with 50% win-loss records, Newcastle in a strict loss-win pattern (which continued with this game) while the Roosters would have done the same if they had beaten the Dragons. Why is rugby league so accepting of such mediocrity, such inconsistency?

Interestingly enough, the previous 12 games between these teams were split, 6 wins each.

South Sydney v. Cronulla

This was a cracking game to finish the round. Two big, physical but also skilful teams, with a bit of niggle thrown in and just enough mistakes to make it very entertaining. Fast, intense and exciting (even for the neutral supporter): everything the hype-fest, the ultimate letdown between the Bulldogs and Manly wasn’t. I apologise to ANZ Stadium; it turns out good games can be played there.

Despite the closeness throughout and their great effort even though they had some considerable obstacles in their way, this never really felt like a Cronulla win. Souths took an early lead and more importantly, won the early physical battle. Cronulla was unaccustomed to this and Paul Gallen’s Inner Grub almost emerged after over a year of lying dormant.

Ultimately, Gallen was able to contain his Inner Grub but went away from the best parts of his game a little too often and tried to do too much to help Cronulla come back. An injury ended a sour night for him.

Souths had a number of good players, including Burgess (back from injury) and Reynolds (who again wasn’t Chris Sandow-Now; Souths’ supporters couldn’t be happier), but Inglis starred. However, they never put Cronulla completely out of the game and Todd Carney was excellent in keeping Cronulla close.

Inglis dominance over Cronulla – Greg Inglis has now defeated Cronulla in all 6 games he’s played against them. It’s not quite up there with Dallas Johnson’s dominance over Canberra (15 wins and 0 losses) or Michael Crocker (who hasn’t lost to Parramatta since mid 2001) but it’s pretty good. Tonight’s 3-try, 1-assist and countless defensive play effort will give Cronulla supporters nightmares when the next Souths game nears.

See you next week.

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