Tuesday 3 June 2008

Why are NRL teams slow or unable to take advantage of a weakened opponent? Part 2

It was just two weeks ago where the Tuesday Roast highlighted the tendency of NRL teams to perform at a sub-standard level when faced with a weakened opposition. This was again the dominant theme throughout NRL action across the weekend.

However, while the main factor behind the poor performances against weakened opposition in Round 10 was the absence of State of Origin players, Round 12’s complacency took place with virtually all Origin players on the field.

Instead, it was the more common mid-season culprit of taking very capable but struggling opposition too lightly which was behind the majority of complacency in Round 12. Not helping matters for these teams has been the high turnover of players in recent years: this makes week-to-week consistency that much harder to achieve.

However, complacency and/or a drop-off in intensity became apparent in two games over the weekend due to a circumstance much more common in years past: the send off. While Rugby League has changed markedly in recent decades, it appears the age-old outcome of the team with the numerical advantage subconsciously easing off while the other team lifts to cover for their disciplined team-mate is still a part of the game.

The game which changed the most as a result of a send off was the Cowbores Penrith match-up. Despite the Cowbores having sacked Graham Murray as coach before this game and desperately needing to win to keep in touch with the top 8, Penrith was by far the better team in this game over the first 50 or so minutes.

Penrith’s defence was top-shelf (although the Cowbores’ attack was rather monotonous and predictable) and their attack was a threat to score from almost anywhere on the field. Luke Lewis had another strong game at halfback — it’s getting more and more difficult to blame poor opposition defence for Lewis’ lightning-quick adjustment to a brand new position — while the return of ultra-confident Jarrod Sammut gave Penrith another strike weapon.

Penrith’s early game domination only resulted in 10 points, due to a combination of some desperate Cowbores’ defence and bad luck. North Queensland amazingly took a lead to half time after a Feral Thurston kick ricocheted into the path of Burns then a Feral chip took a fortuitous bounce into the path of Daniel Abraham.

The teams exchanged penalty goals before Luke O’Donnell was sent off for using an elbow to fend off a defender (Lewis, who was one of several “divers” in this round — more on this later). From here, Penrith’s dominance disappeared completely, even though they were still 2 points behind. The Cowbores almost monopolised possession as they sought to kill the clock, leaving Penrith with little energy when they did get the ball, but Penrith rarely even made it across half-way in the latter stages of the game.

However, Penrith’s defensive effort was maintained, leading to the bizarre outcome of the Cowbores looking to keep the ball more so than trying to score and Penrith completely unable to move the ball. A rare Cowbores win seemed certain until they spun the ball wide and Penrith centre Michael Jennings gambled, took the intercept and gave Penrith an ill-deserved lead.

Suddenly, a Penrith win seemed certain. The Cowbores never seriously threatened Penrith’s line during this game…until the 80th minute. They regathered the ball from the kickoff and attacked Penrith’s line with an energy not seen previously. It was energy many times greater than when they were trying to kill the game and it resulted in a dubious no-try (Harris surely got the ball down…eventually) then a dubious try (surely Graham lost the ball?).

When the dust settled, Feral had a kick from the side to win the game. However, nerves got the better of him and his trademark hook was absent. Surely Penrith would win the game in extra time?

They did…eventually…but it took most of the 10 minutes and only occurred after the Cowbores lost another player (Steve Southern) to injury.

Despite doing their best to lose, this was Penrith’s 3rd win in a row: this hasn’t happened since late 2005. Incredibly though, they have now won 7 of their last 9 away games where they were the pre-game outsider with the bookmakers. However, it would have been a safe bet that the bookmakers expected a Penrith win once O’Donnell was sent off. They adjusted their game accordingly…

The other game with a send off was in Canberra on Friday night and it possibly saved the game from being a foregone conclusion. Manly dominated the opening half hour in Canberra before the send off took place.

But Canberra often falls behind at home before coming back strongly. There were some early signs of the standard comeback (such as a 40/20 kick from Carney) but Manly was the first team to score after the send off took place. Canberra did cut the deficit to 6 points, but Manly ended up winning quite easily. Manly may have won easily anyway, but it was unusual to see a Canberra comeback at home fall as short as this one did.

The other Friday night game didn’t have any send offs but could have had several. Brisbane and Parramatta have been bitter rivals for many years and this has continued even with the departure of Brian Smith. The corresponding fixture last season saw Jarryd Hayne labelled as a diver. He was again involved in controversy with his dangerous (cowardly?) tackle on an unsuspecting Tonie Carroll. Mark Riddell took up the slack from Hayne and milked Justin Hodges’ very late and very silly near-spear tackle for as much as he could. While the NRL judiciary probably didn’t like this game, everyone else (including Channel 9) loved it.

Of more relevance here though was that Brisbane was not at their best for much of this game despite the return of Darren Lockyer. They took Parramatta a bit too lightly — which was somewhat of a surprise, given the rivalry between the teams — but to their credit they lifted their game when needed. The salary cap and age has robbed Brisbane of much of their veteran leadership in recent years, so for them to produce when needed to defeat a much-improved Parramatta was a significant step.

The under-performing but supremely talented Eels were overdue for a huge effort and it was not surprising they produced in a game where few expected them to win. The return of Krisnan Inu and a brilliant effort from Feleti Mateo reminded everyone why Parramatta was a top-4 prediction for so many at the start of the year.

If only Parramatta could help Eric Grothe’s struggling confidence. Opposing teams now know full well of Grothe’s struggles defensively: Brisbane attacked his side of the field repeatedly in this game. He tried his usual rushing out of the line, but Brisbane saw that coming and scored, he tried standing back in the line and they still scored. He did pick the right moment to attack and snuffed out an excellent Broncos’ attacking movement late in the game, but Lockyer’s last second brilliance came at Grothe’s expense.

Last Monday night, Cronulla’s wingers felt like Grothe does most of the time: the Bulldogs feasted on Ricky Stuart’s baffling decision to sack Luke Covell and instead go with a patchwork group of three-quarters. Injury forced Stuart to go back to Covell in Sunday’s game against the Gold Coast where a much better defensive effort was required.

The Titans started almost as slowly as they did in their loss to Wests last Sunday and came back similarly late in the first half: they actually took a lead to the half-time break in this game. Another easy try saw their lead extend before 20 minutes of solid attacking play from Cronulla — as well as increasingly sloppy Gold Coast defence — led to Cronulla running up a match-winning lead. Not just a Cronulla match-winning lead (i.e. 1 point) but a real match-winning lead!

Cronulla scored 30 points for the first time in over a year and this took place after the first time they conceded 30 points since July last year (the only time they conceded 30 points last season). Cronulla’s first match against the Gold Coast this season — a loss — came after they defeated Melbourne at Olympic Park, while this win against the Gold Coast came after an embarrassing loss. This shows just how powerful the mental side of the game can be…

For the Gold Coast though, in hindsight they have struggled for the past month. Their surprising early success has become increasingly difficult to maintain and they now have the added problem of being a much sought after scalp for more teams.

One of the teams to defeat the Gold Coast in recent weeks — with a brilliant defensive effort — was Newcastle. Newcastle also showed signs of class and premiership-winning potential against heavyweights such as Melbourne, the Roosters, Brisbane and Manly so far this season. The accolades many good judges had bestowed upon them were well deserved.

However, a quick glance at the Knights’ team list shows a lot of youth. On Saturday night, this list was missing Kurt Gidley. While very few people expected it, Newcastle’s largely lacklustre showing against the lowly Warriors probably shouldn’t have come as too much of a shock. This was a pale shadow of the team that tackled themselves into the ground against Melbourne or who hung tough against the Roosters before finishing with a flourish. It is a bit much to expect a mostly young team to be so consistent against the best and the rest of the NRL.

That said, the Warriors weren’t too great themselves, but they realised the Knights were having an off game and that they were a chance. Their defensive effort was much better than previous games in Australia and they eked out a close win in the end.

Even a team as chook-full of internationals and Origin players as the Roosters can experience fluctuating consistency levels from time to time. In general they were quite solid against the Tigers last night, but any team who takes on the Tigers in the wet is excused if they ease off slightly, such is the Tigers’ reputation as dry-track specialists.

When Tigers’ centre Dean Collis was tackled into touch in the Tigers’ first set, it looked like more of the same from the Tigers in the wet, but from there they gave a solid account of themselves. They defended their line well, only conceding points after errors gave the Roosters significant attacking field position. After several pieces of Robbie Farah brilliance, the Tigers were only down by 6.

Two key plays in this game gave the edge to the Roosters. What looked like a very promising attacking situation was ruined by a poorly executed Benji Marshall kick. This kick fell nicely for Mitch Aubusson, who was able to shrug off some poor attempted tackles and run over 90 metres for a try. Not long after, the Tigers were finally able to go around the Roosters’ defence and a try seemed certain. A Farah kick sat up nicely for Beau Ryan, but Ryan’s slightly awkward attempt to ground the ball was deemed to be a knock-on.

While the decision was not as shocking as Fox’s Greg Alexander made it out to be, it did appear to be a very close call. The Tigers were probably a touch unlucky. They did cut the deficit to 8 a few minutes later and had another great attacking chance after a Farah 40/20 in the driving rain, but they would get no closer.

In all, a positive night for both teams, with the Tigers giving a good showing against a big team in the wet while the Roosters put forth the requisite effort in a situation where they were expected to win well.

It should come as a surprise to no-one that Melbourne is one of the two teams who thrashed a weakened opponent, but the Dragons’ resurgence continues: their solid win over Souths was much too composed, much too efficient for a team notorious for shoddy performances when they are expected to win well.

Surely the old Dragons will come back soon…? If not, there is enough lack of depth, enough turnover of playing rosters and enough athletes who aren’t really footballers in the game to ensure enough material for another similarly themed Tuesday Roast in no more than a few weeks.

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