Last night’s State of Origin game saw New South Wales post a hard-working victory, which put an end to a series of quite unflattering numbers. This was New South Wales’ first win in five games anywhere, their first win in five games at ANZ Stadium and their first win in eight games (and second win in thirteen games) while the series was still live. Their combination of speed and (enough) size eventually wore Queensland down.
However, this was far from a run-of-the-mill Origin game. The ultimate significance of last night will not be clear for many years, but we may have seen: the end of an era in Origin domination, a glimpse at how Rugby League might be played in the not-too-distant future (perhaps as early as 2012) and further confirmation of how boring Rugby League can be at the highest level.
While it was ‘only’ one game and Queensland will have home ground advantage in the deciding third game, last night could be the long-awaited turnaround New South Wales has been after. Like so many games in recent years, last night’s game was up for grabs in the dying minutes, but this time, Queensland was unable to take the game while it was available. Quite frankly, they looked unable to do so.
Although they did lift their performance somewhat in patches during the final 20 minutes, they largely struggled for field position and looked uncertain on the rare occasions they got close to the New South Wales try-line. Even more remarkably, Queensland’s struggles took place despite them featuring a team at full strength with no (known) injuries.
The mental toughness and discipline required to win so many games, even when not necessary to win the series over the years, in this manner over the years is massive, so perhaps it was not surprising that they eventually failed to come through. However, New South Wales’ new-look line-up, with just two props, but stacked with utility types blessed with ample size and speed was far from overmatched by Queensland’s traditionally dominant pack. On the contrary, New South Wales used their speed well in harassing Queensland. Darren Lockyer probably hasn’t looked to kick the ball into touch so many times during a game for many years; Queensland needed to catch their breath much more often than normal.
With his unusual line-up being so successful, it is possible that Ricky Stuart could have (accidentally – as evidenced by his efforts to convince prop Luke Bailey to end his representative retirement) shown the way in terms of how Origin teams and, ultimately, NRL teams will look in the years to come. As NRL players’ combination of size, speed and endurance continues to improve, the use of interchange has come down. Most teams routinely used their allotted 10 interchanges in a given game some years back; now, most teams will not use 10 interchanges.
However the major factors which could lead to the NSW type of team becoming more common are: pressure on the NRL to give representative players more time off between major games, pressure on the NRL to maximise the revenue from the upcoming television broadcast rights contract and (internal) pressure on the NRL to maintain an even competition despite greater participation and effectiveness from representative players.
Combined with less use of the interchange by teams, it would not surprise for the NRL to (again) cut back on the maximum number of interchanges allowed to perhaps 8 or 6. A scenario of 6 interchanges and a short quarter time break in matches (hence allowing for more ads) is not out of the question.
Under this scenario, or even an eight-interchange one, a team with less hulking props and with more fast but strong enough players (and enough size in other positions) would provide the best chance of success. Paul Gallen may discover his time at prop becomes almost permanent from now on.
Last night’s Origin might have been a look towards the future but while much could change in Rugby League, one thing that won’t change is playmakers will continue to be of paramount importance. Hence, in last night’s game, where the talented individuals struggled to make an impact, combined with low error and penalty counts, and a fairly conservative approach from both teams, the result was a mostly boring game.
Origin has always been where the very best Rugby League players have been showcased. Since the advent of complete professionalism in the game, the very best players in the game combined on one field has more often meant the collection of the world’s best athletes in Rugby League than the world’s best skilled Rugby League players. Last night, Stuart’s brave new world of Rugby League team composition renewed the focus on the athletic player at the highest level.
However, while there was little doubt as to the athletic quality on field and to the combined efforts of the players, the aesthetic quality of the game was lacking considerably. Both teams played very conservatively in the first half, only upping the attacking flair slightly in the second. It was not surprising that New South Wales took this approach; they had such a new look team (although with a lot of old faces), have suffered mightily from mistakes in past games and another loss would probably have seen more sweeping changes for Game 3. But for Queensland and their talented playmakers to show little sign of any attacking flair or innovation was disappointing; the game suffered. New South Wales’ defence can claim some credit but nowhere near all of it.
This combination of improved physicality, speed and endurance, and struggling, conservative attacking play reminded me of correspondence received from Tuesday Roast tipster Leigh Bentley in 2004 regarding how Origin players had become faster and more intense, but less capable in attack and less exciting. Granted, Leigh had been out of the country for three years (so the changes were more pronounced), but his description of how the game changed in 2004 can be applied quite well in 2011 (and, of course, in 2012 and 2013 as the brave new world solidifies its presence):
Last night was the first Origin I've watched live on TV since 2001. I turned Roy & HG off after about 5 minutes because they didn't sound like they really cared any more. In 3 years it seems the game has changed. It used to be a hard, fast, tough game, punctuated by pieces of individual brilliance which defined Origin as the epitome of rugby league.
Last night was a good game - low on mistakes, played fast with a few big hits thrown in for good measure. But I felt it lacked the skills of Wally Lewis or Freddy Fittler, and the tough cunning of Benny Elias or Alfie Langer. Or the recklessness of Rodney Howe or even Martin Lang.
It seems to me that in this era of ultra-professionalism all but the very, very best players have lost that creative edge. Our massively over-paid professionals now play a low-risk, high intensity game that seems to rely on consistency over brilliance. We focus too much on the coaches and not enough on the play-makers. Is it becoming more like a game of touch football and less like a gladiatorial contest or have I just grown too cynical in my absense from supporting the game at first hand?
While Jamie Soward set up the match-winning try, he and Mitchell Pearce played a safety-first game, with their major input confined to sweeping kicks for field position. They are capable of so much more. But then again, both know Ricky Stuart’s reputation with halves he doesn’t like. Lockyer led Queensland brilliantly and kicked well, but rarely looked to set up anything adventurous. To be fair, this is a bit of a reach for him now, but Feral Thurston had very little involvement; he seemed strangely subdued for most of the game. Other potential game-breakers (Slater, Inglis, Hayne, Gasnier) were either off their game, didn’t get very involved or both.
On another night, this combination of players may lead to a brilliant game, but it wasn’t the case last night. Given the way the game might be headed, and with playmakers of the ilk of Lockyer and Thurston unlikely to come through again, last night might have been a window to a less-than-optimistic future in Origin.
In Round 14 NRL games:
The Gold Coast finally emerged from their deep hole on Friday night. They played some much more encouraging rugby league and overcame a stubborn but very undermanned Dragons at Kogarah.
Manly rather easily defeated North Queensland on Saturday night. The wet and some significant absences were no barrier whatsoever to Manly and their very consistent play.
Two cracking games were seen on Sunday. First up, Brisbane worked their way to a 24-nil lead before sensationally giving it all back to Canberra in under 10 minutes. Brisbane didn’t completely collapse though and won the game in extra time. Peter Wallace became the sixth player to score twice or more in Golden Point and the first to do it with different teams.
In Auckland, the Warriors surged to a 22-4 lead with a burst of tries after half-time. Incredibly, the Tigers responded with a burst of their own with some amazing attacking play – as well as a dubious try to Beau Ryan – to sneak home with the win.
Finally, Melbourne’s commitment and effort overcame their almost complete lack of structure as they defeated the injury and Origin-hit Roosters 21-4 in a largely lifeless but occasionally spicy game on Monday night.
See you next week.
Wednesday, 15 June 2011
Round 14: Origin - A Look Towards The Future?
Tuesday, 7 June 2011
Round 13: I Want To Be In That Number...
Nowadays, Rugby League is a game of numbers. Here are some famous ones: 6, 10, 26, 40/20, 11, 349, 212, 30-16, 8972, 40 (and counting), ∞.
You all know these numbers, yes? Ok, have another minute or so to remember their relevance.
Give yourself a point for each correct answer:
6 – Maximum number of tackles per set.
10 – Maximum number of interchanges a team can make in a match.
26 – Rounds in a season.
40/20 – If a kick in general play is taken behind your 40 metre line and leaves the field of play after the opposition’s 20 metre line, this is a 40/20 and you keep possession.
11 – Consecutive premierships won by the St George Dragons between 1956 and 1966.
349 – Number of first grade games played by Terry Lamb and Steve Menzies.
212 – Number of tries scored by Ken Irvine.
30-16 – the score-line on the greatest day ever, i.e. when the Tigers defeated the Cowbores in the 2005 grand final.
8972 – the announced crowd at every Newtown Jets game.
40 (and counting) – the number of years since Souths won a premiership.
∞ – the year when Cronulla will win their first premiership.
Let’s look back at Round 13 by the numbers.
318 – The number of games between draws in the NRL. The draw between Parramatta and St George Illawarra was the first since Round 21 of 2009. Since the introduction of Golden Point extra time in 2003, 318 games has been the second longest span of games between draws, trailing only the 418 games between draws between Round 13 2005 and Round 21 2007.
13 – The number of games Darren Lockyer played in his career at Shark Park/Toyota Park/Toyota Stadium. Amazingly, the Broncos only won 6 of these – Cronulla had a great run of wins over Brisbane in the late 1990s and early 2000s, before Brisbane replied with three consecutive 16-12 wins at Cronulla between 2004 and 2006. Brisbane’s 34-16 win on Friday night was the most points Lockyer’s team has scored at Cronulla and the greatest margin of victory his team has enjoyed at Cronulla.
45 – The average age of the Gold Coast Titans squad. Even a team with the ancient (but still extremely productive) Petero Civoniceva looked a lot younger than the Titans. Gold Coast coach John Cartwright must be thankful he signed a long-term contract extension recently; he might need all that time to rebuild his team.
1 – The competition round the Bulldogs last played a good game. Yet they remain in the top 8. However they won’t be there much longer if they serve up the rubbish they gave on Saturday night again any time soon.
3 – The number of losses New Zealand has had in Sydney this season (from 3 games). This is a strange statistic; the Warriors often play well in Sydney, enjoying solid support from expatriates. Sadly for the Warriors, events conspired against on Saturday night: a long winning streak, a bye, some injuries a desperate opposition and rain.
1.7 (or so) – the average number of points scored per minute by North Queensland in two massive scoring bursts on Sunday in Canberra. In one of the weirdest games in some time, Canberra racked up 22 points with ease before injuries to Dugan and the luckless Campese coincided with the Cowbores putting in a much greater effort and responding with 22 points of their own. The game then stalled for about half an hour before the Cowbores finished with 3 tries in the final 5 minutes.
67647867467894987649864846 – The combined number of whinges made by all Souths supporters on Sunday afternoon, divided by the combined number of natural teeth these supporters possess. It’s not a difficult calculation; it’s easy to divide by 1. Souths was a little hard done by when Dave Taylor appeared to have scored a try late on, but it’s hard to complain too much when the adjudicating referee is standing within a few metres of the incident. Unless you’re a Souths supporter that is. Melbourne wasn’t at their best but they earned what might be a valuable rep-season win on Sunday afternoon.
7 – The number of consecutive wins at Leichhardt achieved by the Wests Tigers, most of which have been extremely fortuitous. It goes something like this: the Tigers have a history of big or unexpected wins at Leichhardt, so now they expect to win easily each time they play there. Opposition teams fire up knowing how unusual an away win is at Leichhardt and the Tigers are complacent. They fall behind but somehow escape with a win, each more unlikely the last. This time, the Tigers had some generous refereeing, some conservative Newcastle options and some unlikely Newcastle errors to thank. The day of the Tigers not only losing but being thrashed at Leichhardt is long overdue.
See you next week.
Tuesday, 31 May 2011
Round 12: Home Is Where The...Tips Is
It has long been the consensus view that, in any type of sporting contest, the player or team with the familiarity benefits of home ground advantage usually has an edge over most opponents. Matches in the NRL are no exception. In years past, most teams’ home grounds were quite different to their opponents. Not surprisingly, the home team would have better knowledge of local conditions, any peculiar playing field dimensions or be much more familiar with any antiquated facilities (or, of course, use much superior facilities to the visiting teams).
As Rugby League became professional and grew well beyond Sydney’s borders, home ground advantage extended to home city or home state advantage and the extra dimensions of travel and climate became factors which could help the home team.
However, as teams became used to travel and became more professional in their approach when travelling interstate or overseas, and as stadiums have been upgraded and homogenised and playing surfaces improved, the advantage enjoyed by the home team has slowly diminished. For much of the 2000s, the home team winning percentage oscillated between 55 and 62 per cent; quite a way below levels seen in previous years and mostly below the levels of other basic tipping theories.
Inexplicably, in Rounds 11 and 12 of the 2011 NRL season, home teams have dominated in a way not seen since the bizarre season of 2000. But at least in 2000, there was a reason behind the home ground dominance; the season was shifted back due to the Olympics and this more even competition meant the home ground edge became pivotal.
In the last two weeks, home teams have not lost, but many would argue the competition is less even than it has been in several years. So far in 2011, home teams (including the bookmaker-favoured team for neutral games) are winning 67 per cent of the time.
It might take some time to establish exactly why the home teams are fighting back after a decade or so, but in the meantime, here’s a look back at Round 12 with the importance of Home Sweet Home to the round’s 7 winners (and others).
Home Is Where The….Cash Is: On Friday night, it was the annual double-header from Brisbane. However, on this occasion, neither south-east Queensland side was the ‘home’ team. Manly and Canterbury took the cash on offer and moved home games to Brisbane. Both Sydney teams played quite well but they were helped by patchy performances by their opposition.
First up, Manly took a while to get going, but once they did, Brisbane had no answer for them. Brisbane rested many of their representative players as they did for the Melbourne game a few weeks back but this time the effort from the remainder of the team was not there. Manly’s second half was very good. Daly Cherry-Evans’ first game in his home city of Brisbane saw him celebrate with two tries, but the kudos went to Kieran Foran (amongst others) for another excellent game in the main playmaker role.
While this was Manly’s first home game moved across the border, the Bulldogs have done something similar each year since 2005, with varying results. This time they took on the Titans in one of the weirder games seen in recent times.
Despite having the better of possession and field position for most of the game, the Titans were unable to successfully cross the line until the game was well out of reach. Incredibly, the referee requested video assistance on 7 occasions regarding possible Titans tries and each request came back with a verdict against the Gold Coast. In almost all instances, there was little room for argument, but the Bulldogs certainly had the ‘luck’ home teams are often accustomed to in this game. With that said, they jumped to a 12-nil lead before the Titans responded; the Bulldogs would probably have responded well had the Titans troubled the scorer in the early going.
Home Is Where The….Heart Is: Newcastle’s performance against the Roosters last Sunday was pathetic. They had less structure than an invertebrate, less passion than Rain Man and exhibited less teamwork than the Australian Women’s Rowing Team in 2004. Somehow they lucked out and played the second worst team in the world that day and almost won, but a vast improvement was needed – even with the opposition being the wildly inconsistent Eels.
Luckily for Newcastle, they were going back home to their loyal crowd, which has long prided itself in the ability to rouse the ‘local’ (not as much as they once were, admittedly) boys to a stirring win. Also, the Knights welcomed back club captain Kurt Gidley and finally, God/Joey provided a wet night. All 3 elements, plus a much improved effort, saw Newcastle earn the close win over the Eels. Newcastle games have been very hard on the eye of late, as this one was, but they might have turned the corner with a win here.
Home Is Where The….Love Is: How can it be anything else for a supporter base which regularly travels many hours to watch home games? Or for a supporter base that can tolerate living in the same state as Feral Thurston? There were two other instances to support this theme for Saturday night’s Cowbores versus Roosters game in Townsville: the return of Todd Carney to the part of the world where his life was turned around but also to remember the life of former Cowbore Sam Faust, who passed far too soon last week.
The Cowbores weathered some unusually solid Roosters play to record a fairly easy win in this game and, in doing so, extending their winning run at home to 6 games: a run not seen since the halcyon days of 2005.
Home Is Where The….Second Contr... I mean Family Is: In Melbourne on Sunday, Cameron Smith played his 200th game for the Storm. Many expected them to thrash the struggling Sharks but victory was a surprisingly difficult task. The Storm did end up winning, but have been less than convincing at home in recent games. This is not the juggernaut at home that they once were (at the moment anyway).
Smith spoke yesterday of his (and presumably other representative players’) desire to see the governing bodies leave weekends free for State of Origin from 2013 onwards. The burden on representative players’ bodies (and the shortening of their careers) from backing up soon after representative games is not in doubt, but Smith alluded to the poor quality of games in recent weeks and over the Origin period in recent years as another reason for wanting Origin to move to otherwise free weekends.
Sorry Cameron, but there’s plenty of other reasons for uninspiring games in June and July than tired representative players, such as (non representative game) injuries, wet and windy weather, too many night games and the ongoing effect of the salary cap and less than optimal revenues on the quality/depth of many teams’ rosters. You won’t win much sympathy using incorrect reasoning in your battles.
Home Is Where The….History Is: The St George Dragons (back when Illawarra was purely a nursery and not a pesky half-brother) once went 56 games and over 12 years without a loss at Kogarah. Their winning streak at the famous ground was merely 5 before Sunday’s game against the Wests Tigers, but their overall winning streak of 8 games was nearing the upper limits in today’s game.
In another entry from the slightly-interesting-but-only-if-you-have-too-much-time-on-your-hands files, St George’s last loss before their 56 game unbeaten streak was against Balmain. The Tigers also registered a draw with the Dragons during this time and it was Wests who ended the win streak in 1966. The Magpies also recorded wins at Kogarah in two of their next three visits.
On Sunday, it looked like being more of the same for the modern Dragons; yet another strong and probably match-winning half-time lead. The only team to beat the Dragons during Wayne Bennett’s tenure after the Dragons got off to a strong start was Newcastle in 2009, but the Tigers hung in and aided by some Dragons’ tiredness, cut the deficit to 6 in the game’s final 5 minutes. A decent comeback by the Tigers but it was ultimately only a mild improvement over recent weeks. Meanwhile, the Dragons keep on winning; you wonder if 11 in a row wouldn’t be so crazy to consider if Bennett wasn’t leaving at the end of the season.
Home Is Where The….Freak Tries/Ex-Colleagues/Lower House Prices Is: It looks a somewhat convoluted series of links for the final game of the round, but it will all make sense soon.
First off though, Penrith continued their recent improvement with a decent 22-10 win over a struggling South Sydney side to end the successful week for the ‘home’ teams. The platform here was laid by a very good start and a strong attitude in adverse conditions. Luke Lewis started very well and continued this for most of the game, Civoniceva backed up very well from Origin (although his opposition in the Souths forward pack made his job quite easy) and Penrith’s halves of Burns and Walsh had excellent games in one-on-one defence and taking on the line with rare ball-running respectively.
However Souths had a decent chance to come back in the second half; the game was seemingly stuck at 16-10 to Penrith and anything looked possible. Ultimately, Penrith took their lead back to 12 and secured the win with a freak try that those with long memories had seen before. Penrith’s Masada Iosefa dropped the ball in a potential try-scoring chance, but the falling ball collided with his foot in an inadvertent way before the ball hit the ground. Iosefa fell to the ground and was upset at his mistake and Souths’ Shaune Corrigan assumed it was a knock-on and slowed to a walk, allowing the ball and Penrith’s determined, play-to-the-whistle (or extremely-good-memoried) fullback Lachlan Coote to race through and dive on the loose ball for a try.
Souths coach John Lang – formerly of Penrith – was probably upset at his players for their lack of attention to detail but he could not have seriously challenged the legitimacy of the try. It was Round 8 in 2006 and Penrith’s first game at home for the season after an off-season upgrade to what was then known as CUA Stadium. Cronulla got off to a very fast start and things looked grim for Penrith, before reserve prop Matt Cross appeared to lose the ball on a run deep in attack. Cross, however, with a savvy few props possess, realised his boot connected with the ball before the ball hit the ground and then kept running through to score the try. Of course, Cronulla went on to thrash Penrith.
So this game brought us a near-replay of a previous freak try, John Lang and Rhys Wesser – both former Penrith premiership winners who were moved on against their wishes – returning to their former home and lastly….house prices?!
Yes, house prices. Who knows how different Souths’ fortunes – or Penrith’s fortunes – may have been if Luke Lewis hadn’t reneged on his deal to move to Souths in 2008? His stated reason: to be nearer to a sick relative. However there was a whisper at the time that Lewis, who had recently bought a house in the Penrith area, did not want to sell up to buy near South Sydney. Or maybe Penrith just secretly upped their offer to Lewis in the ‘cooling off’ period? We’ll never know…
Finally, Home Is Where The…Favourites Is: For the first time since Round 24 2008 and the second time since Round 13 2006, the bookmakers got it completely right. With more of the representative season to come than has gone and surely more bad weather as well, can this recent predictability last?? Tune in next week to find out.
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
Round 11: Back Door Benny’s Politically Incorrect Roast
“They are so cocky, they are so confident, they believe that they’re bullet-proof and uh I can assure there’s something coming up there, you know, they’re going to make these floods back in Queensland days look like an absolute mimic when it comes to us coming up there cause we’re going to certainly put out a massive storm. Go the Blues!”
After a few years out of the media spotlight – one can only imagine why – former NSW and Balmain hooker Ben Elias came back with a bang late last week, infuriating Queenslanders and befuddling New South Wales supporters and linguists alike.
There seems no other option than to throw the floor open to Benny and let him provide the weekly recap on Round 11 and last night’s Origin game. Take it away, Benny.
“Cheers, Les and let me just start by saying it’s great news to hear that World Sports is back on the box. Round 11, the mercury’s frosting up on the grass in the morning, Origin footy is fast approaching… gotta say, I love this time of year more than a Pommy’s bath towel!
But it is a bit of a problem for the game that we have these split rounds where the Origin players can’t play. I’ve thought about this for a few times now and I’ve gotta say, David Gallen, this is where we need decisions from the top of the perch. The honcho head, the magilla gorilla. Gallen has to think about the players’ welfare here and not just bend over and touch his toes for the TV networks you know? I think we really need Origin on its own on a weekend. A Sunday, at Leichhardt Oval, imagine the atmosphere. I reckon that will really rate the house, really high interest rate. Interest rates, haha, now I sound like Darren Kochie!
But yeh, the games weren’t so great in Round 11, but there was a few big upsets, starting on Friday night at the foot of the nation’s capital, Bruce’s Stadium, where the Raiders sent the Doggies supporters back to their mums’ Haloumi with their tails all messed up with their legs. It was a bit funny though, every time I saw the game, the Doggies were attacking but they just couldn’t score so I was a bit shocked. The Doggies’ halves, Hodgkinson and Paul Keating, they’ve been talked up a bit but they froze in the headlights.
Meanwhile, the Raiders took their chances and had a 16-blot lead. Unbelievable! They couldn’t win a game for months and now Melbourne and Canterbury in one go. The Dogs did come back and almost made a game of it, but young Jason Croker slotted the penalty goal to make it an 8-point win.
On to Saturday night now and what would have been the highlight of the round for me watching the mighty Tigers play almost turned to disaster thanks to Penrith. The Tiges went in for a few early tries but the three Lukes – Walsh, Lewis and Rooney – were on fire. Mazda Iosefa even scored a try, you never seen that and when you little beaut Lachlan Coote went over, it looked like icing on the curtains for the Tiges.
But somehow they hung around. You’ve never seen a team drop the ball so much, you swear they…I dunno….had mixed soap and butter up, put it on their hands and the ball then went out to play. Not good coaching from the master coach Timmy Sheens, who I think is still secretly reading the books at Penrith. You know what they say, you can take the boy out of Penrith but you can’t take the boy to Penrith, especially now he’s a man and an old one at that.
But yeh, the Tiges were a show when Benji picked up the loose ball and sprinted away for the try, then it seemed like they had snuck off and got some sort of antidote to that butter and soap stuff, swallowed it whole, got into a phone booth and were like the old Tigers. Robbie Farah set up young Brown and the Tiges had the lead which they held on to despite Benji almost throwing an intercept in the last minute. I can tell you, Timmy’s heart would have been beating in his mouth, then would have gone up and tore some hairs out on that one.
On Sunday, I was looking forward to this one, the entertaining Warriors were up against Mario’s Bunnies (boo hiss boo). After starting slower than a turtle going slowly for a whole week, the Warriors have been on fire lately with the likes of Locky, Bony Moloney and Christopher Inu all starring. But Souths have been going alright, sneaking up teams with a…quieting you never see at this level and winning despite a horrif…horric…a really bad injury toll.
In the end, there was plenty of entertainment for everyone but the scoreboard operator who was left sitting on his thumbs for most of the time. The Warriors could have scored a hundred tries but blew most of them, with Christopher Inu mostly responsible. In the meanwhile, Souths hung around and when Max Merritt put Wesser over, Souths had a great chance. Their big props, Norman Ross, Sharyn McPherson and Dave “Taylor” Taylor took it up strong but it was too many mistakes from them as well. Still a good game and well earned win to the Warriors. Sucked in Mario!"
Now it’s time for a short break, we will be back soon.
“I wasn’t born to be a footballer. I wasn’t born to win a major. And I wasn’t born to wear the baggy green for Australia. But I was born to fix because I was born a Waterhouse. With four generations of fixing, collusion, shady dealings and good old horse switching in my blood, I was born to take your money without you knowing why. Bet online with me at tomwaterhouse.com and that knowledge will be yours – if you’re involved in organised crime, that is. Any sport, any bet type, any time, join me, tomwaterhouse.com”
“Thanks Les, and the match of the day on Sunday was out at headquarters where the Chooks played Newcastle. What a bludger of a game this was, dead set! The Chooks tried hard but have got nothing going for them at the moment, although the injuries didn’t help. Too many of their salt guys are hurt, so the pepper boys are giving it a dig. You know the ones, Tassie, Mossy, Soy, New Nick Scali….I’ve probably got them wrong, but I think Brian Smith’s got it wrong as well. Look back at the great teams of the past, you know, Gasnier, Raper, Changa….there’s no Loolooai or doing a Poo amongst them is there? Ok ok, I’ve sailed off on a tangent then said my bit on a gravy box here, I’ll shut up now.
But seriously Newcastle, they just don’t care. You don’t have to be Ironstein to know that with Wayne Bennett coming in next season, most of these guys know they’re on borrowed ice and the dealer’s getting restless for his cash and they’ll going to have to find a new dealer next season, or at least a new team if they want to keep their careers afloating. The only ones who could hold their head were Hilder, Costington but mostly Matty Utai who I swear played for the Tigers on Saturday night. I know I’m not the full quid but I swear I wasn’t hearing things!
Anyway, the Chooks held on just in the end when Wes Karate missed the goal and Newcastle did nothing with the ball in the last minutes.
On Monday night, I was looking forward to seeing how Jarryd Hayne would go. Would he be Hayne Plane, Hayne Train, Hayne Wane or Hayne Rain? Hahahaha did you like that one? Yep I did it myself, spent a few hours on Goggle looking them up.
In the end, Hayne went alright but Cronulla, who are pretty shallow when it comes to cattle anyway, was missing way too many. Gallen, the older Jeremy Smith brother and Craig Snowden were the main misses. Parra did it simple but effective, Jeff Robinson, Burt Luke (Issac’s brother) and Craigy McGuire all had storming games for Parra, who won easily.
But then it was the big game of the round, the big banana, the big mo-hito. The big cheese, yep ORIGIN!.........”
Sadly, Benny got a bit too excited as New South Wales stormed (whoops) back into the game and threatened a rare win, so couldn’t complete this roundup. Early on, it looked like more of the same as Queensland scored easily, but more disturbingly for New South Wales, also had the better of their opposition physically. But New South Wales hung tough and looked better as the game went on thanks to a fearless attitude and Queensland missing some star power and some depth.
Queensland was somewhat fortunate to extend their lead to double figures but eventually New South Wales crossed the line then snatched the lead. However, as Queensland always seems to do, they not only scored when they needed to but scored the final try of the game. Unfortunately the final try didn’t fall to Darren Lockyer (at $21), but Lockyer played a key role, setting up Billy Slater.
See you next week.
Tuesday, 17 May 2011
Round 10: Black Friday Weekend: Difficult Round for the Favourites
Life had been relatively easy; life had been calm for the NRL’s upper echelon teams. After a number of difficult years, where winning consistently was difficult for most, the balance of power seemed to be shifting back towards the rich and powerful. A 72 per cent success rate for the bookmaker-favoured teams between Round 4 and Round 9 was solid evidence of this; those favoured by people in the know had not enjoyed such a success rate since the mid 2000s.
However, little did these teams know what was awaiting them in Round 10. Sure, the upper echelon teams expect to be impacted by representative games and budget for injuries and/or fatigue as a side effect of the pride felt for those selected in representative jerseys and almost all of these teams played away from home in Round 10, but few expected the upsets and the difficulty the upper echelon sides would encounter. The struggling sides ALL played far beyond what they had shown in recent weeks, with only a few sides failing to translate their inspired effort into ultimate victory.
Ladies and Gentlemen, this week’s Roast takes a look at the Black Friday round and how the previously struggling teams in the NRL competition fought back against their usually much better faring tormentors.
But first, a little historical background: Friday the 13th was only known as Black Friday from the mid 19th century. It is possibly thought to have originated as a result of two older superstitions i.e. that Friday and 13 were considered unlucky.
In Rugby League, the first game on Friday 13th took place in July 1990, when Brisbane defeated Wests 30-10. The first signs of bad luck on Friday 13th in Rugby League took place here with Dale Shearer only converting 3 out of 7 attempts at goal, while anyone at this game or watching from home would have been forced to endure a youngish but still scary looking Jason Taylor in the halves for the Magpies.
Over the years, Brisbane would feature quite prominently in Black Friday games. They had a run of wins through the 1990s (against Balmain in 1993 and Manly in 1998), but their luck turned bad as the millennia changed. First up, a loss to the Roosters in 2001, before the upstart Titans won the first SEQ derby in 2007 on a Black Friday.
Things briefly turned around in 2009, when they defeated the Cowbores after withstanding a furious second-half comeback, but the losing returned in 2010 as the Eels continued their late-season run with a very good win at Suncorp.
Meanwhile, Brisbane’s opponents on Friday night — the black cats from Penrith — had quite incredibly never won a game on Friday 13th (in 4 attempts). To be fair to them, only one of these defeats was at home (2007 to Parramatta) but it bizarrely included an Ian Hindmarsh field goal: how unlucky can black cats get?!
All sorts of Gods couldn’t let this continue; Penrith just couldn’t lose another Friday 13th match and so it proved as the Panthers played like they haven’t since mid 2010 in soundly defeating Brisbane. Brisbane’s prudent strategy to rest many of their representative players after last week’s Test match was rendered almost useless by Penrith’s revitalised performance.
Sadly for Penrith, their bad luck did continue, with Michael Gordon and Timana Tahu suffering season-ending injuries. Gordon’s injury is especially cruel as it likely denied NSW supporters the chance to see his talents on a much larger stage.
For the Dragons, this was their fifth game on a Black Friday. Not only was their record entering this game on Friday 13th just one win and three losses, these losses came to some freakish Newcastle play (in 1999 and 2003) and in a golden point loss to the Storm (in 2009).
In short, they were due some Black Friday luck and many believed they received this in the first half, when Beau Scott looked tackled, but his very late offload to Matt Prior was permitted as Prior scored the Dragons’ first try.
After a now-standard Soward field goal just before half time, it looked like another run-of-the-mill Dragons win, but some Dragons tiredness and a renewed effort from the Bulldogs meant a riveting last 20 minutes. However, the Dragons did just enough to hold on and with that, the first leg of what could be a very congested representative schedule for many of their players was over.
By Saturday night, Black Friday had passed, but things remained just as difficult for favoured teams. The most unexpected result of the round (by some margin) was Canberra’s shock win over Melbourne. Clearly, Melbourne expended a major amount of effort last weekend (with so many players on representative duty but also in overcoming a stern challenge from Brisbane) and had much difficulty in finding the necessary motivation to defeat an opposition faring so poorly.
Canberra’s main shortcoming had been in attack, where Matt Awful had been primarily responsible for their anaemic play. Against the Storm and their usually resolute defence, Canberra scored twice quite early on. These were not brilliant tries, which gave the impression of fatigue on Melbourne’s part, but they reflected Canberra’s improved attitude.
It would be easy to attribute Canberra’s improved performance to the absence of Awful — and fun too — but this was a team effort especially in keeping Melbourne from scoring after the Storm eliminated Canberra’s lead. When the highly annoying, brash but sometimes talented Blake Ferguson avoided touching the sideline by millimetres in striding towards victory, the upset of the season so far was complete.
At Homebush, it was the black rabbit against the black (and gold) cat. From a bad luck perspective, Souths had suffered more than enough with their massive injury toll; hence they were deserved winners over the Tigers.
From a rugby league perspective, Souths made their own luck in a damaging first half display. They presented a much more professional attitude and intensity and repeatedly exposed the Tigers’ interior defence. Seeing Old Man Rhys Wesser striding in open space should have embarrassed the Tigers into action. It did, but not until the game was almost lost.
Meanwhile in Townsville, it wasn’t necessarily a poor start by the Cowbores, but a flaw in their left side defence was exploited repeatedly by Jarryd Hayne, resulting in Joel Reddy, Luke Burt and Ben Smith striding in open space. Parramatta took a 26-10 lead midway through the second half and the upsets looked likely to continue.
Then it was Parramatta’s turn; again, it was not necessarily poor play by the Eels, the Cowbores put THIRTY points in even time to finish with the victory and finish over the top of the gritty but overwhelmed Eels. This amazing finish capped off two entertaining games between these teams in 2011.
Contrary to the expectations of many tipsters, Newcastle was favoured by bookmakers to rebound from their recent run of bad luck and end the Warriors’ impressive run of form on Sunday in Newcastle. For most of the second half, it appeared bookmakers would be correct as the Knights held the lead and peppered the Warriors’ line but it was the Warriors who secured the win with two late tries.
In Sunday’s other game, it was perhaps not a surprise to many that the Roosters could not sustain an 80-minute effort given their patchy form so far this season. However, it was a major surprise that their conquerors were Cronulla especially given Cronulla’s losing streak and some significant absences due to injury (exacerbated by their lack of depth). Despite some poor goal-kicking, Cronulla’s excellence in defence kept the improved Roosters to just one try and consigned the favourites to yet another loss in Round 10.
Lastly on Monday night, Manly hung on to defeat the very aggressive Titans. Manly looked the far better team for most of this game, but failed to convert much of this dominance into points. Meanwhile the Gold Coast gained confidence as the score-line stayed close as well by each massive hit on a Manly ball-player looking to make a play close to the advantage line.
This mini-battle almost reached a farcical stage as Manly’s playmakers seemed to invite the Gold Coast hit-men to tackle them harder and harder: no matter how hard, they’d still get up and play on. In the end, Manly won the battle but almost lost the war as Gold Coast had the chance to snatch victory at the death (like they did in 2009).
If Round 10 is anything to go by, the representative season could deliver a host of upsets, especially as injury tolls rise and depth levels are further tested. Stay tuned…..
See you next week.
Tuesday, 10 May 2011
Round 9: Mum's The Word
A quick trivia question: In a week where Chris Sandow’s decision to switch clubs from 2012 caused tensions to rise between “senior” officials at his current and future clubs, where the NRL was slightly irked by Brisbane’s decision to rest most of their big name players, where an injury to Jamie Soward cast further doubt on to the makeup of the New South Wales State of Origin team, what is the common factor linking each of these stories?
That’s right; everyone involved has a mum. As a tribute to the mums of both Rugby League and tipping, here is the Roast for Round 9 with help from mums around the world.
Australia v. New Zealand – “Because I said so, that’s why!”
While New Zealand again failed to defeat Australia in this annual in-season match, the closeness of this game provided further evidence of the narrowing gap between these two countries. New Zealand did well to stay near Australia for much of the contest, but in the end, Australia was too good.
However, this was not a “classic” Australian victory; as coach Tim Sheens mentioned to the media in post-match discussions, three of Australia’s four tries came from New Zealand mistakes. In other words, Australia ultimately imposed their will on this match and basically decided New Zealand would not take the lead in this contest.
Country Origin v. City Origin – “You’d forget your own head if it wasn’t screwed on!”
This archaic fixture again proved quite intriguing, if only because these teams are assembled just once a season. Despite a lack of depth in some positions on both teams and an obvious lack of familiarity and continuity, this was a fairly high quality game which was decided on one play in the game’s final minute.
However, City Origin coach Brad Fittler deserves a roasting for leaving the ultimately crucial task of goal-kicking to little-used option Nathan Merritt. While the City line-up did not possess a current first-choice goal-kicker for his NRL club, Merritt hasn’t kicked in the NRL since 2008 and his career success rate as a goal-kicker is lucky to be at its current level of 58 per cent.
Statistics say Fittler had little choice but surely one of Hayne, Farah or Pearce would have been more naturally suited to goal-kicking than Merritt. There is no proof of this, but it would be completely unsurprising to learn that Fittler was more worried about trying to make an “inspired” selection (such as Adam Cuthbertson) and gave no thought to a goal-kicker until the last minute.
Still, City had a very good chance to win this game and if Hayne chose to run a little wider around Heighington on his chip-and-regather attempt, he might have drawn a penalty which could have won City the game. Instead, he barrelled straight into Heighington and Uate took the kick back 60 metres for the game-winning try.
Brisbane v. Melbourne – “I don’t care who started it!”
A somewhat cryptic mums’ saying here as the losing Broncos came very close to seeing their calculated gamble (of resting those who played on Friday night) pay off; there is very little scope to criticise the losing team in this instance.
Instead, the mums’ saying refers to the Storm’s strong links and similar path to the Brisbane Broncos. Melbourne coach Craig Bellamy served a long apprenticeship under Wayne Bennett at Brisbane (keep an eye out on old Fox Sports replays for Bellamy running the water for late 90s and early 2000s Brisbane teams), while Melbourne’s sustained run of success almost mirrors that of the Broncos in the late 1990s and early 2000s. If only those old Broncos teams had two sets of books……
Anyway, given their lofty position on the ladder and need to manage the wellbeing of their star players, it was prudent of Brisbane to rest Lockyer, Hodges, Thaiday and Hannant in this game, but it may also have improved their chances of winning. The theory here being that motivation would have been harder Melbourne and their bevy of backing-up players to summon knowing they were playing against a significantly weakened opposition. Brisbane (and their younger than usual team) gave a very strong account of themselves but fell just short of victory.
Gold Coast v. New Zealand – “Do you think money grows on trees?!”
This mums’ saying is not so much related to the game played at Robina on Sunday afternoon but more so to the somewhat bizarre recruitment the Titans are currently undertaking for 2012 and beyond. Sadly for the Titans, their opportunity to win a premiership with their current core of star players looks to have passed them by; now, the difficult process of renewing and turning over the roster without sinking towards the bottom of the NRL ladder has begun.
The importance of the spine – i.e. the fullback, halves and dummy half – is acknowledged across the NRL and the Titans had one of the better spines last season: Campbell, Rogers, Prince and Friend. Since then, Rogers retired, Friend has been injured for much of the season so far and Campbell and Prince are slipping somewhat faster down the slope towards retirement. Given their poor start to 2011, you’d imagine the spine would have been a major priority for the Titans in their player recruitment but this has not been the case.
This is not to say the Titans’ signings are bad players: Jamal Idris and Luke Douglas could have long and successful careers for the Titans. But they don’t fill positions where the Titans desperately need players. Nor do these players play in positions where cheaper alternatives aren’t quite readily available.
Meanwhile, Titans stalwarts Friend and Anthony Laffranchi will be lost to the club; both have many good years left but received pathetic offers from the Titans to re-sign. Obviously money doesn’t grow on trees, but Friend and Laffranchi might be forgiven for thinking that it does (especially if the rumours about the Titans and major salary cap breaches from last season had any semblance of truth to them).
In Sunday’s game, the Titans were missing a lot of their structure without Friend and Luke Bailey, but the Warriors were impressive, winning by 20 points. While only a few Warriors had to back up from Friday night, the team hadn’t had to back up after an in-season test since 2001 (when, coincidentally, they also played on the Gold Coast).
St George Illawarra v. North Queensland – “If all your friends jumped off a cliff, would you do the same?”
Despite being hit by a number of injuries before this game, the Dragons were still going to be a tough nut to crack for North Queensland. The Cowbores followed the template many other teams have used this season when playing the Dragons; a very simple game plan, try to play good field position against them, hopefully they make mistakes before you do and then a lead might be possible. If this happens, the Dragons become much more beatable.
But the Dragons have only lost one game this season, despite losing some forward punch (which would seem to hurt their chances in low-scoring games) and their defence was brilliant again in this game. They held the Cowbores out for close to 4 full sets of 6 tackles before an intercept led to a 90-metre Brett Morris try. Soon after, the now emboldened Dragons scored again, with Stanley finishing off an entertaining sequence.
Playing the Dragons in a slowdown game doesn’t feel like the equivalent of jumping off a cliff, but its success rate suggests the two events are not that dissimilar.
Manly v. Canberra – “What part of no don’t you understand?”
As the weather worsened during Monday, Canberra’s chances of ending their long losing streak improved. However, over the weekend and into Monday, their chances of winning fell back with news of a seemingly rejuvenated Learoyd-Lahrs unavailable due to injury as well as the late withdrawal of Josh Dugan with an upset tummy (the actual reason given for Dugan’s absence was only slightly less pathetic than this one).
Despite these absences, Canberra had a lot of good attacking field position in the first half, a noteworthy accomplishment given they were running into the wind and Matt Awful’s weak kicking game. But they never really looked like scoring. Canberra’s conservative game plan and lack of confidence in attack meant they never tested the Manly defence, despite much possession, so when Manly took the lead and looked much more likely to cross the line, this game was decided early on.
Eat your vegetables and see you next week.
Tuesday, 3 May 2011
Round 8: Stop The NRL, I Want To Get Off: A Closer Look At The New Schism Separating NRL Teams
When Rugby League hurtled towards professionalism in the early to mid 1990s, a major drawback to this for many supporters was the increase in one-sided contests between the haves and have-nots. As a result, the outcome of a number of games was rather easy to predict for many, so while the quality of play and average strength and athleticism improved, the general viewing experience for many supporters was somewhat soured.
Due to a number of factors — some at the behest of the NRL, others due to external bodies or world economic circumstances (e.g. the greater attractiveness of being paid in English pounds in the early to mid 2000s) — the NRL gave their competition a much higher degree of competitiveness and parity by the mid 2000s, so much so that they regularly boasted of having seven different competition winners in seven seasons.
However, in recent seasons, the stronger NRL teams, those with advantages either in playing talent, wealth, ability to attract and retain player talent or some combination of these factors, have fought back. A few years ago, using all 10 interchanges in a game was done almost all the time. Some teams would even use their 10 with 10 or more minutes of a game remaining. Now, using your allotted 10 interchanges happens far less and most teams are able to carry an emergency player amongst their four reserves (as opposed to using that fourth player for more necessary interchange).
Another factor that would often severely hinder teams was a congested schedule. Scenarios such as playing the Saturday after a Monday, or the Friday after a Sunday, or having three games in 11 days (Monday then Saturday then Friday) would more often than not make it very difficult to win. Knowing a team was about to encounter such a schedule would see that team be expected to struggle to win, or to put in such an effort to win that they would be spent for some weeks to come.
But in 2011, the short turnaround, even with travel, doesn’t seem to be much of an issue, even for those teams with injury problems. Granted, the cooler than usual start to the season also played a role here and it remains to be seen whether the better teams will be able to cope with a congested schedule during representative season, but so far, it has not been a major issue.
As a result of the improved ability of teams and players to adapt with the challenges of the modern game and scheduling, we’ve seen so far in 2011 a return to somewhat greater predictability of results. Some people struggling in tipping competitions may beg to differ, but there has been somewhat of a return to the ‘better’ team (on paper) getting the win more often than they had in the last few seasons.
HOWEVER, while the upper echelon NRL teams have (generally) started the season strongly, for those in the bottom half of the ladder, their struggles and mostly grim outlook for much of the season suggests that the outcome of the NRL’s Top 8 playoffs in September is almost, at this early stage, decided.
Here’s a closer look at the teams who will almost certainly not being part of this year’s Top 8:
Canberra: For a team who had lost 6 straight games and for a team who had declared Sunday’s match against the Wests Tigers to be a ‘must win’, Canberra’s performance in Round 8 was nothing short of disgraceful. They looked sluggish and uninterested, were lacking in intensity, seemingly had little to no attacking strategy and looked surprised when the Tigers carved them up as the Tigers have for the past five years or so.
Canberra’s ‘monster’ pack was again soundly defeated by a smaller, injury-hit and much harder working opposition pack, while Matt Awful again showed little to suggest he can be anything like the somewhat effective playmaker he once was. Some unkind people suggest Tigers’ halfback Robert Lui looks to be 43 years old, but it would not surprise if Awful is actually 43 years old. There was several times on Sunday where his wind-up to kick could have been timed with a calendar; not surprisingly, the Tigers pressured his kicking game easily.
However, Awful has little to work with, both on and off the field. Canberra’s full back Josh Dugan is a great athlete, with a long and elegant stride, but if he has anything between the ears, it is lonely, while his temperament is similar to that of an infant. Canberra has other talent in the outside backs, but they rarely saw the ball on Sunday. Winger Daniel Vidot has been mentioned as a possible Origin winger for Queensland, but Awful and others decided it was not really worth trying to exploit his match-up with Tigers midget winger Matt Utai.
This was part of the ‘strategy’ devised by Canberra coach David Furner; no wonder he has sacked himself from the Australian coaching team for this week’s Test. Also, it is no wonder Tim Sheens accepted Furner’s offer; Sheens is loyal to those who helped him in the past, but even he can see Furner’s shortcomings. Luckily for Furner, his boss at Canberra is his brother, so he should remain at the helm of the Green ‘Machine’ for some time to come.
In years gone by, if Canberra needed inspiration, Alan Tongue, the undersized lock forward cum dummy half would lead the way, but time and injuries have seen Tongue’s ability to inspire fall back to that of most other players. Canberra will get Terry Campese back from injury in the next month perhaps, but he is unlikely to be anywhere near his best this season.
It is somewhat ironic: after years where Canberra was always tipped as the favourite for wooden spoon contention (due to a seemingly weak roster) and followed up with regular Top 8 appearances, pre-season expectations of a successful year for Canberra in 2011 look set to lead to a wooden spoon.
Penrith: Much like the Roosters did in 2008, it looked as though Penrith over-achieved to some extent in 2010 and that 2011 would not be as successful a season for them. They probably won’t have as bad a season as the Roosters did in 2009, but they won’t be far off, especially if Matt Elliott is removed from the coaching job as soon as possible.
Teams rarely perform well when they are set to change coaches next season, but the incumbent isn’t immediately removed. Penrith players announced they would perform strongly for Elliott on Sunday in New Zealand, but couldn’t deliver on this promise, despite the Warriors being vulnerable after a massive effort in Melbourne on ANZAC Day.
Penrith at least look capable of providing nuisance value later in the season when some players return from injury; when motivated, they have points in them. But they look little to no chance of making the Top 8 in 2011.
Cronulla: Unlike the teams above, Cronulla can at least claim to have taken a step in the right direction in 2011. They have one of the better forward packs in the NRL and when their halves and backs don’t play poorly, they can trouble the NRL’s best.
Unfortunately, Cronulla lacks the financial clout of most other teams; hence, their player depth is shallow and their playing stocks are vulnerable to attack. After a bright start to the season, they have struggled of late. Injuries have meant inadequate players are now playing first grade and surely team morale has been hit by massive interest from other clubs for their highly regarded props Douglas and Snowden.
They will no doubt turn the corner and post some more impressive wins, but they would probably be happy with a 10th place finish, such is the club’s predicament. They started solidly on Friday night against Souths, but Souths’ star power proved too much in the end. Cronulla was not helped by feeling obliged to play a clearly injured Nathan Gardner.
Sydney Roosters: A harsh — but fair — way to describe the Roosters could be that they are a rich Cronulla. The Roosters share Cronulla’s relative lack of support and ability to follow up successful seasons with those of a vastly contrasting nature (and vice versa). Also, both clubs enjoyed a period spanning close to a decade between roughly the mid 90s and the mid 2000s where they were often perennial contenders.
After a very successful 2010, their 2011 season already looks done. It might be a bit harsh to say they overachieved last season, but their 2011 form is well down in most areas. Also, off-field issues are probably affecting the team more than supporters of the team or code will know.
Many expected the Roosters to consolidate on last year’s effort — Brian Smith-coached teams often build into years 2 and 3 of his tenure — but this looks highly unlikely to happen. However as long as the key pieces remain and Todd Carney can get back on the field, they should be ready to bounce back in 2012. They looked due to end their losing streak on Saturday night, but a freak late try by the Titans proved the difference between these two struggling teams.
Parramatta: Their excellent trial form and week 1 showing against the Warriors was a false dawn and some thrashings in recent weeks have provided the Eels with a truer indication of their standing in the NRL at present. New coach Stephen Kearney is implementing a Melbourne Storm-style of play but without Melbourne Storm-style pieces; not surprisingly, his efforts will take time to bear fruit.
Their honest effort (in most matches) and ability to bounce back from thrashings means they will probably post some solid wins, but Kearney will probably be happy if he can find some young outside backs and halves capable of giving him several years’ worth of strong play over the remainder of the season. Without Jarryd Hayne, the Eels scoring no points against the Dragons was not a big surprise.
Gold Coast: The Titans have a number of players who could fit into contending teams and perhaps even the missing piece to push a contending team towards a premiership victory. However, as they stand, the Titans are a little too old (with not much talented youth coming through) and missing a few important pieces to be a good chance of making the top 8 in 2011.
The Titans’ administration seems to know this, but their signings for next season and beyond do not really address areas of need. Most teams know the importance of a strong ‘spine’ i.e. the fullback, halves and dummy half. Gold Coast’s spine took a hit when Mat Rogers retired at the end of last season and will take another hit when indefatigable dummy half Nathan Friend moves to the Warriors next season.
Meanwhile, Scott Prince and Preston Campbell, while still very good, are nearing the end of their careers and Gold Coast’s major signings — Jamal Idris and Luke Douglas — while up-and-coming players, do not fill any of the ‘spine’ positions. The Titans might struggle for a few years to come.
Newcastle: The Knights started the season well but a significant injury toll means they will probably struggle to register enough wins over the remainder of the season. Much of their current team may also have to contend with the possibility of rejection by incoming super-coach Wayne Bennett. Apart from Kurt Gidley, Neville Costigan and Chris Houston, Bennett could choose not to re-sign or could sign new players to make much of the remainder of the playing staff be forced to take on lesser roles or find another club in 2012.
They would have done very well to push the Storm into back-to-back defeats on Saturday night, but the loss of Gidley with a shoulder injury killed their hopes in this game and probably for some time to come.
With the Dragons, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Queensland, Manly, Canterbury and the Wests Tigers more than likely assured of Top 8 spots, this leaves just two teams to fight out the last spot:
New Zealand: The Warriors’ slow start to the season has now given way to four wins from their last five games. Their playing depth is perhaps the best in the NRL and is probably too much; a number of injuries has provided certainty for those remaining and has coincided with improved play for most of the team. They don’t have the star power of many of the top 8 sides, but their overall talent level is strong — especially when they have the motivation to back it up.
They have been known to follow up excellent performances with poor ones, so their win over Penrith, while not spectacular, was important. Their ‘spine’ is not great, but they are a good chance of making the Top 8, especially with so many injuries to the forwards of….
South Sydney: The Rabbitohs may not play to their potential at all in 2011, but they have such talent, especially on their left edge, that glimpses of potential may be all they need to get them into September.
However, as happened during 2010, their excellent forward pack is being depleted by injuries. Despite having Ben Ross and Michael Crocker as regular members of their team this year, injuries to Burgess, Lowe, Geddes, Stuart and now Asotasi — some of these for extended periods — might mean Souths has to sign someone like Craig Stapleton again: an emergency prop from a lower league.
Like the Warriors, Souths’ spine is under question. Coach John Lang finally pushed veteran Rhys Wesser out of the team, but his young replacement needs time to get used to first grade. Much-maligned halves Sutton and Sandow have improved over the season to date, but their performance may decline again once they sign new contracts.
Ultimately though, they have Greg Inglis and if he so desires, he can probably take Souths into the Top 8 all by himself.
Hopefully the NRL season can throw up some variety and unpredictability, but it does look like much of the Top 8 is settled. Feel free to refer this back to me in 4 months if I am wildly wrong!
See you next week.
