Round 23: The NRL Report

Rugby League has a rich and storied history since its birth over 100 years ago. For the bulk of this period, Rugby League was not a profession. It was a pastime, a weekend event, a discussion point on Monday morning at school or the office. It wasn’t followed on pay television; if you loved the game, you just had to watch it in person (or at worst, listen to it on radio). There were a few administrators who could use Rugby League to put food on the table, but they were mostly retired greats of the game who were incapable of working for Rothmans, running a pub down the coast or one of several other typical post-playing career jobs.

In short, Rugby League was a sport, not a business, but this changed. The origins of this shift were probably seen in the 1970s (and perhaps earlier) but it was the 1980s when the movement towards full-time professionalism in the game accelerated.

Given the two decades plus since this shift hastened, you’d think the Rugby League community would be used to cold-hearted, business-like decisions made by clubs, players and coaches. The decision by Newcastle to sack Coach Brian Smith three games after his signing with the Roosters from next season should not have surprised anyone; if anything, it should have happened sooner.

Granted, Smith is a target for several sections of Rugby League media, but really…Smith’s sacking should have been the equivalent of a five-line press release summary in the corner of a page in the Fin Review. However, despite the morphing of sport into business, the reality is the Rugby League follower will always view the sport as a game, no matter how money-hungry its participants become.

But what if it was viewed as a business, with 16 companies out to maximise profit, minimise costs and corner as much of the market as possible? Here’s how the reporting of Rugby League events in the media could take place in such a world…

And now it’s the NRL report with Tom Piotrowski from CommSec, and Tom, who were the best performers this week?

Once again, Karen, it was ParraEels Ltd. which recorded the strongest growth. This came on the back of another extremely strong showing, which outstripped all but the most bullish of expectations from analysts. While some expected their strategic movements (asset sales and the hiring of a new CEO) in the early and late parts of FY 2008/09 to bear fruit in the medium to longer term (given their strong market fundamentals and well established brand), few gave them any chance to be posting such strong numbers so soon.

As their chart shows, it has been a meteoric rise for ParraEels over the last few months, but they remain below the historic highs of 2001 and 2005, so there is still some upside if you wish to get on the bandwagon. Despite their surge in recent months, a number of brokers see ongoing growth and positive reinforcement to come from their asset buyback and several other acquisitions…but be warned, what goes up must eventually come down. If you’re looking at ParraEels to put in your back pocket, that might be the best bet…but history says you will enjoy a bumpy ride!

Similarly, the Wests/Tigers conglomerate has risen remarkably when most of the fundamentals pointed to continued weakness. While their competitive cost structure and flashy brand translates to continued appeal with mum-and-dad and institutional investors alike, most of their rallies after their incredible burst to prominence in the early part of FY 2005/06 have been flashes in the pan.

The consensus view is unclear whether this current rally will be any different; they have enjoyed the rails run of late with very friendly market conditions, while a rare overseas investment foray early in FY 2008/09 has been paying some significant dividends. However, it remains unclear if they can continue to produce such good results. Their relative lack of a diversified asset portfolio has always haunted them; this hinders their ability to produce consistently in difficult markets, such as the one looming on the horizon for them. A strong recent performer, yes, but it is no surprise that more analysts are recommending their clients to sell Wests/Tigers.

Interesting, what do you make of the results of blue-chips News Brisbane and News Melbourne?

The News-owned companies experienced contrasting fortunes in their latest results, but can feel fairly good about the near term.

News Melbourne went into a trading halt earlier in the week and subsequently suffered a sharp dive when they had to release a product recall on their popular Inglis brand. The rumour mill went into overdrive once this info hit the bourse and even several days after the trading halt was lifted. It appears as though Inglis will be back on the shelves in the not-too-distant future, but it remains to be seen how much damage Inglis — and News Melbourne — have suffered. However, the consensus, despite their relatively poor showing this week, is that News Melbourne remains a fundamentally strong outfit and will be able to post very good results for the remainder of the trading year: News Melbourne is a buy or a buy/hold from all analysts surveyed.

For their Brisbane counterpart, it has been well-established that a number of poor investment decisions in recent times have hit their bottom line hard; this is not the profits machine it was for so many years. Throw in a number of unplanned maintenance shutdowns and it is not surprising just how poorly News Brisbane has been performing.

However, as is often the case, investors can overshoot in the good times and oversell in the bad; the strong fundamentals of News Brisbane remain and have been largely ignored. The chart shows News Brisbane exhibited the first green shoots in their last set of results, which improved further last week. Given their strong fundamentals and their intention (and ability) to invest in some significant new assets in coming years, this remains a solid defensive stock.

Contrasting results for the best performers so far in CY 2009, Red V Ltd and Doggie Style Inc.?

As we all know, Red V Ltd have been extremely successful this year. It just goes to show the value of top-shelf boardroom leadership. People can get angry with the issue of executive pay, but new Red V CEO Wayne Bennett would suggest he’s worth every penny (or much more) of his salary.

Recent results for Red V were very lucrative for investors (many of whom got on board during the halcyon days of the 1960s) and were achieved in a very efficient and productive manner, but they suffered a rare hiccup after their annual visit to Canberra last week. Despite their very famous brand and a number of studies showing quite strong multiplier effects from their investments, Canberra has been a very difficult opponent for Red V over many years (even following the change of Government).

Their ongoing trouble with the Feds notwithstanding, Red V has very solid ongoing prospects. Given Bennett’s history of success with News Brisbane, now might be a good time to buy: novices could be shaken by their failure in Canberra and could look to sell, whereas wiser heads had already factored this into Red V’s price.

Some other news about Red V this week concerns rumours of a possible takeover of Sharks International. These companies have a well-established rivalry in the southern Sydney market, but whispers from within Red V see Sharks International as a similar-type target as Illawarra Steel was in 1998: asset-rich but revenue-poor and able to be won over eventually by the history of Red V. Speculation to this end has probably put a floor under Sharks International’s price at present, but be prepared for this floor to fall away as m&a activity in NRL is notoriously slow to take place.

Doggie Style Inc. has come off the boil somewhat in recent results, although history tells us that when this happens, there’s usually a method to their madness and there is a definite plan to attack and profit heavily in the not too distant future. Look for some more softness in their price in coming months as the market realises the effect of the retiring of the El Masri brand (although rumours continue that El Masri will not be lost to Doggie Style completely; rather, it will assume a secondary role) but Doggie Style quietly announced several small acquisitions this week. Their constant ability to re-invent themselves in tough times means this is a resilient stock: highly recommended by most analysts.

And lastly, further success in what has usually been a challenging market sector for Golden Titans Ltd.?

Yes, Karen, Golden Titans quickly established a strong niche in the burgeoning SEQ market following their incorporation in 2007, but has struggled to gain a foothold elsewhere, especially in the notoriously tough Sydney market. Whereas some (such as Doggie Style Inc.) have fuelled recovery and growth via asset acquisition and reinvigoration, Golden Titans have strengthened via organic growth and improved strategy and preparation with their existing stock of assets.

So far in CY 2009, Golden Titans have continued their dominance in SEQ but have recorded much improved results (albeit off a low base) in other metropolitan areas. They had their first success in Melbourne in April and now have had successful ventures in Auckland and western Sydney in the last two weeks.

Western Sydney required all of Golden Titans’ nous and expertise; their usual star performers gave a good showing but success was largely due to a powerhouse effort from Minichiello. His familiarity with that market, in combination with his other strengths, proved decisive.

The Sydney challenge will no doubt present itself again soon, but in the meantime, those who have invested in Golden Titans will receive some nice rewards in coming weeks as their focus returns to their native area.

See you next week.

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Round 22: Diss-parate Times Call For Diss-parate Measures

On its own, Karmichael Hunt’s decision to play Australian Rules football from 2010 will not have a major effect on Rugby League, but it’s hard not to imagine KHunt’s move hurting the game over the medium to long-term. There will likely come a day when the common response of a Rugby League diehard to the loss of a star player to a rival code or overseas — “you lose a Gasnier or a Sonny Bill and along comes an Inglis or a Hayne in their place” — no longer applies.

The trend towards a lower average age of NRL players these days will probably exacerbate this trend when it does become apparent. In general, these younger players are more likely to be influenced by the dollars on offer from rival codes (or choose one of these rival codes well before reaching the NRL).

The NRL simply cannot stand by and let this happen; something must be done. Any efforts to substantially increase salaries for elite players will likely not eventuate for some time, so the NRL needs to think outside the box: how can they reach the new generation in a non-monetary way?

KHunt has often told of his love for the NBA and his Playstation, other players of his age and younger — many of whom are from an Islander or Polynesian background — often profess their love for hip hop music. For these kids, one can only imagine the awkwardness the first time they represent their team in a victory and are forced to shout out the words to an ancient tune such as “Glory Glory to South Sydney”, “When The Saints Go Marching In” or “Up Up Cronulla”.

Hence, the first suggestion for the NRL (and the clubs) to attract and retain young superstars is to scrap the traditional victory song in favour of the “diss song” (or the battle song). This is from the world of hip hop music and was probably put on the map for most people by the 2Pac v. Biggie feud of the mid 1990s (which contributed to their untimely deaths), but was brought into popular culture by Eminem and “8 Mile” in 2003.

Even though many of the young Islander and Polynesian kids in the NRL are religious and respectful of their opponents (especially of a similar background), the concept of the diss song could (following a game with the right amount of spice) be highly popular with a number of players as well as creating more “interest” amongst rival supporters.

It goes without saying that this is a risky strategy, but it could help a highly competitive game even more so; no player is going to want to change codes in this environment! Not to mention that, with so much of the players’ energies devoted to preparing diss songs for their upcoming opposition, they won’t have time to think about their (relatively) inferior salaries!

Here’s how the battle songs of the victors in Round 23 might have sounded:

St. George Illawarra took advantage of an anxious Penrith side to jump to an early lead and coast to a relatively easy 25-6 win.

Congrats Penrith, you made it to 1000 games
But you couldn’t beat us if you had 1000 days
Your attack was useless; my god, you had to make do
With a Brian Smith reject! No excuses
Your fans turned up (kudos)
In their flannos and ugg boots
But on your big night
You suffered from huge stage fright
Granted, you were blinded by the light
From Wendell’s unsightly big behind
But you struck out in the game on (free) TV
To us, the mighty Red V!

Melbourne was not at their best, but their defence was still quite solid and they did more than enough for a 20-4 win over the Cowbores.

You came to the Graveyard with the best of hopes
But like all the others, you left as a bad joke
You have Feral and Matty Bowen
But you were rubbish, you had no flowin’
At all, despite lots of ball
Why was Rovelli kicking?
He has nothing at all
Go back to your banjos, your heat and your moonshine
And don’t bother tryin’ to beat us; we’re going just fine

Manly finally got off to a good start, but their ongoing problems were even more present this week and a keen South Sydney side took full advantage for a 36-22 win.

You started fast, but that was an illusion
Our avalanche of points proved your delusion
You might be premiers but you are diseased
You have more holes than a block of Swiss cheese
Let’s start with the wingers, the Williams sisters
Our new boy McQueen, his speed gave them blisters
Then there’s Matt Awful, his game is so drab
Everything is sideways, he plays like a crab
Finally there’s Watmough, the DNA freak
He lost it, we killed you; let’s do it again next week

The Bulldogs were a bit lucky to get away with a 23-20 win over the surprisingly resilient Raiders.

Bad luck Raiders, maybe next year
Yes you got close, but we didn’t leave first gear
At this time of season, when we’re near the top
We ease off against rubbish, we give you a shot
These games don’t really matter, so long as we win
But you shocked us a little, lucky Campese can’t kick
Or execute a field goal; he had a ‘mare
Off you go to Advanced Hair (Yeh Yeh)
But we won, that’s all we needed remember?
We’ll be ready to peak come September

Gold Coast rather easily defeated the Warriors 30-10, but this was significant for a team that struggles out of Queensland.

We lost at home and had to make amends
Against the Warriors, but they are our friends
They made us feel welcome with so much possession
And a lack of intensity; as well as aggression
But we’re not complaining, we needed the win
If we couldn’t beat these losers, our season’s in the bin
Thanks again Warriors, your tripe was much needed
We’re back on track, thanks to you we succeeded

Wests Tigers were unsurprisingly a bit flat after they survived Manly’s incredible comeback last round, but they shook off the enthusiastic Roosters eventually to record a 17-10 win.

A sunny Sunday at “home”; we love it
But harder than expected, the Chooks made us earn it
We started slowly and were lucky to be near
But the no-try to Taniela kicked us into gear
And we fired up nicely, led by Ellis
The big Pommy unleashed and made the Chooks jealous
Of their former Old Dart influence; Morley’s no more
Like Mini’s pace; he was sent into Row 4
An important win against solid opposition
Another like this and we’ll be near 5th position

The Parramatta juggernaut rolled on, gaining momentum with a 40-8 thrashing of Newcastle.

Knights, you learned how Smith can screw you
So we had to puts points on, to hasten his leaving you
Lucky this was easy, you guys are pathetic
A pen goal at 6-all? That decision was sick
And not in the good way, it was more than terrible
Just like your play; you guys were awful
We lifted a bit and you folded away
Like Superman on laundry day
Hayne’s our Superman; he killed you again
Way too easy: you were nil out of ten

Finally, Brisbane finally showed some small glimpses of a return to form as they defeated a brave but ultimately out of their depth Cronulla 30-10.

We were struggling, but you even more so
With so many out, you’re like no arms on a torso
You started ok, kicking about
But you couldn’t get far and we started the rout
Normally we’d ease off then head to the pub
But we had to keep going to smash Gallen the grub
It was great to win after all the hard knocks
So let’s go celebrate with Red Bull and Stilnox!

See you next week.

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Round 21: "That's A Big Call!"

“That’s a big call. That’s a big call!” Feral Thurston was stunned: his team-mate Luke O’Donnell was just sent from the field in May last year for using an elbow as a weapon whilst in possession of the ball. This hadn’t happened since….maybe Craig Smith (when he used to visit the judiciary a handful of times per season) but Cement Gillespie certainly was dismissed similarly in the late 1980s. Even more amazingly, O’Donnell was sent off by a rookie referee.

However, O’Donnell could not have struck Luke Lewis in the throat any more sweetly if he had tried and he had acquired a reputation over many years for raising his elbow at inopportune moments (most notably when he inflicted similar pain on to Michael Monaghan’s jaw in 2003). In fact, Feral’s “big call” was anything but; instead, it was exactly the right call and one that had to be made.

Below are 10 “big calls” from Round 21:

St George Illawarra against Melbourne will likely be considered as the most interesting match of the season…unless they meet again in the semi finals.

Not only was this match a chance for the Dragons to exact some revenge over a long-time tormentor, but it would be a great test of their ability to win in big games. Early on, the Dragons started strongly and took the lead, but Melbourne responded with a level of play not seen from them…perhaps ever. They were clearly pumped at the prospect of defeating the probable minor premiers and this was seen in their level of intensity and well-thought-out strategy. Also, history has shown they are rarely able to play at this level in the few weeks after the Origin series concludes.

Not long after the Dragons took their lead, Melbourne responded with two tries, the second of which pitted Inglis and Soward together in a scene which was probably not far off Soward’s worst nightmare. As he did in their Round 1 meeting, Soward went high trying to tackle Inglis and copped the brunt of Inglis’ strength, but he somehow stayed in the play. The only weapon he had left to stop Inglis scoring was the Slater kick; this (just) failed, but the referees rubbed salt into the wound by giving a possible 8-point try.

Dragons coach Wayne Bennett would have been delighted at Melbourne’s approach to this game; whether the Dragons won or lost, this game was going to be a great test for his relatively young team. The Dragons responded before half time as Soward found Sailor out wide, but Soward was perhaps still understandably affected by the intensity of the Melbourne effort and this was reflected in his second missed conversion of the game.

Even though they lost Sika Manu to a broken leg early on, Melbourne looked to have a great chance to win this game. Cameron Smith was causing havoc around the ruck, Dallas Johnson somehow found the energy to have an excellent game and Billy Slater continued his brilliant form. However, the Dragons (largely) kept their composure, maintained their intensity and (with a few pieces of luck) kept Melbourne scoreless for the remainder of the game while scoring three tries of their own.

At times they appeared a little….anxious and probably expended a bit more energy than they normally would (due to the semi-final-like game arriving earlier than expected), but for the Dragons to achieve such a win was a significant step. Yes, they were quite lucky that Tomane’s acrobatic effort for a try for Melbourne was disallowed for no good reason (it was not possible to see his elbow out of the field of play when he touched the ball down), but it was a stirring Dragons’ victory…and a possible pre-cursor to perhaps an even better game in Week 3 of the finals if the Dragons finish 1st, Melbourne finish 4th and results go as expected.

Jamie Soward: was this the game where he finally confirms his brilliance in big games?

This game was not just a test for the Dragons, but it was a huge test for their prolific but somewhat inexperienced (at least in big matches) five-eighth Jamie Soward. His skills and talent are not in doubt, but the fact that such a player was kept away from the Origin blowtorch in a year when NSW was crying out for talent suggests those in the know where unsure of Soward’s ability against the very best and uncertain if a bad game at this level would severely stunt his development.

Soward has dominated the lesser lights in recent weeks but he quickly became aware of the difficulty of the task in front of him on Friday night. It wasn’t just the looming spectre of Inglis and his lethal palm, but a battle-hardened, smart team full of big-game players who wanted nothing more than to shoot down this season’s best team so far.

The task for Soward became even more difficult when he sustained a shin injury early in the second half and it appeared he needed to leave the field for treatment. Eventually, a combination of his own pride and determination and a fire-up from Wendell Sailor saw Soward overcome his demons (at least on this night) and lead his team to a famous win. The pinpoint long passes, the accurate kicking game, the much-mimicked but quite precise goal kicking ability and his blinding speed were all on display in the second half. He probably needs to come through another half-dozen or so games such as this to prove himself to the people that matter, but overall, it was a very positive night for Soward.

Steve Turner: the worst signing for the Bulldogs since Brett Howland (or Leon Bott)?

Apart from Soward’s resilience and the video referee blunder to disallow Tomane’s try, the other talking point after this game was Steve Turner (Melbourne’s other winger) and his quite pathetic attempt to outpace Ben Creagh and score what would have been a very important try.

Turner gathered a loose ball with about 15 minutes left and saw a very generous sideline gap. He executed the standard in-and-away on Darius Boyd and had no defenders in front of him. Any winger worth his salt should score in this situation, but after 30 metres or so of sprinting, he inexplicably slowed up and slightly headed infield.

At this point, Dragons’ second rower Ben Creagh — the closest defender, but realistically no chance of catching a winger in a sprint — received a burst of hope; now he had a chance of collaring this excuse of a player and the worst NSW Origin player in history. Turner realised his mistake, but couldn’t accelerate away from Creagh. Hornby joined in to stop Turner’s progress and after the rest of the Dragons arrived and repelled the Storm in that set of tackles, the Kogarah Oval crowd rose as one, a great win was as good as sealed…and Turner’s reputation as a joke was confirmed.

Replacing one of the great wingers ever (still) with Steve Turner? Usually the Bulldogs make astute signings, but this one is way off the mark. Time will tell whether Turner will be as useless as other pathetic wingers Brett Howland and Leon Bott or hooker Michael Sullivan (all of whom came via the Cronulla Sharks: no coincidence there) but look out for Turner to be playing lots of park rugby league next season.

It might be a little late, but it looks like the Gold Coast’s annual decline has begun.

It’s hard to blame the Gold Coast for playing at such a high level for so much of this season. They are understandably so keen just to make it to September after disappointing finishes to their first two seasons, but in doing so (probably), they may very well have burnt themselves out.

Sure, the Cowbores’ effort against them on Friday night was one of the better ones seen this season, but the Titans were so far off the pace. Usually, their intensity and consistency of effort — especially at home and against good teams — means they are always a great chance of winning, but it became apparent after a few minutes on Friday night this was not the usual Titans. They threatened to score early and start well, but their attack was lacking. Even when try opportunities presented themselves (to Minichiello and Gordon), there was not the hunger and effort to score. You know when Matt Bowen stops you from scoring one-on-one that something is not right.

Granted, Gold Coast was without several important forwards (Laffranchi, Harrison) as well as Mat Rogers, but they have made do without injured players at different times all season. They will likely improve when these injured/suspended players return, but it’s hard not to see the Titans limp across the line unless they can find another gear (as the top teams do).

Feral Thurston >>>> Prince

In a way, the struggles of the Titans against the Cowbores were represented by the tough night Scott Prince had against Feral Thurston. Prince is a very experienced, skilful and capable player…but he doesn’t have the extra gear for big games. He’s just not enough of a Feral. Interpret that however you like, but Feral Thurston…he might not always produce when needed, but when he does produce, he leaves pretenders like Prince in his wake.

Prince tried to bring his team back into the game, but it was never going to happen. Some say he is unlucky not to have played many Origin games due to Lockyer and Feral, but there is a feeling he might not be much good at the Origin level, not at this late stage of his career anyway. Look for Cooper Cronk to take over from Lockyer when Lockyer retires from representative rugby league next season and for Prince Charles to regret the extremely long tenure of Queen Lockyer.

Cowbores played great…almost as great as their cheerleaders think they always play.

It was an excellent and very timely performance from the Cowbores. Feral was very good, but Matt Bowen was even better. He dominated at both ends, with several try-saving tackles followed up by tries and try assists.

However, to say they (and he) were overdue for such a game was an understatement. After their highly fortuitous late-season run in 2004, they had a better season in 2005 but couldn’t overcome the might of the Tigers, losing heavily to them three times in the season’s final few months. Since then…they threw away a brilliant start in 2006, they somehow made it to the prelim final in 2007 without any decent forwards and with Feral playing without two shoulders and stunk it up in 2008.

Yet the Cowbores somehow escape any media criticism for their lack of results. Mention the Cowbores to most media commentators and have your sick bucket at the ready…”Matty Bowen, what a player, an excitement machine!!!!....Thurston to Bowen, what a combination!” These comments might be credible if they were accurate for more than a few times a season.

If they could play at somewhere near the level they showed on Friday night, they would be a legitimate shot at a premiership and deserving of their massive amount of kudos. But there has rarely been a bigger ‘if’ in the history of the world…

KHunt’s greatest skill might be his evasiveness…but he’s no Michael Jordan.

Much has been said on Karmichael Hunt’s jaw-dropping mid-career code change. Most of the good points have already been made a number of times since last Wednesday (for an excellent summary of everything KHunt, see Phil Gould’s article from Sunday’s SMH) but there are some left to be made.

To paraphrase a point made by Gould, if KHunt wanted a challenge, he could have stayed at the Broncos and helped them out of the rather massive hole they are currently in. Signing Folau for $400m or whatever ludicrous amount they paid for him whilst letting key forwards Stagg, Hannant, Ennis and Eastwood leave (and keeping Joel Clinton) has proven to be an incredibly bad decision from what is usually a smart club when it comes to player signings. Did Bennett approve of this before he left? Or did he approve knowing it would ruin the club which didn’t want him any longer? Whatever the reason, KHunt showed on Saturday night he does not possess the aptitude or the attention span to stick around when times are tough and do the hard work.

KHunt mentioned that he made an impromptu trip to Melbourne the day after Brisbane’s game against the Tigers in Sydney. How did he throw his team-mates and club officials off the scent? A visit to his dealer perhaps? (This would have met with Hodges’ seal of approval). This was just a few days after Joel Clinton brought a girl back to his hotel room (which cost him a massive fine); surely lying to your team-mates is the worse offence???

Speaking of KHunt’s attention span though, it has been documented on several occasions that he is not a fan of watching NRL at all; he’d rather be on his PlayStation or watching NBA. Hopefully, KHunt’s decision was not influenced by Michael Jordan and his stint playing baseball over 18 months in the mid 1990s. Not because Jordan was a failure at a game he loved as a child, but because Jordan’s time away from basketball has been rumoured to be a gambling-related suspension (rather than time away from basketball due to burnout).

Given KHunt’s rather dubious extra-curricular activities, he may be trying a little too hard to be Like Mike, but it’s hard to see KHunt returning to the NRL in two years and dominating the game like Jordan did. Farewell KHunt; hope the toilet cubicles in Melbourne are large enough for you.

Penrith, Newcastle, Parramatta (in addition to the Gold Coast) took a trip in the NRL time machine — but had differing views on what they saw.

The Gold Coast’s return to their form of late 2007 and 2008 has already been discussed, but the time machine was in use for a number of other teams this weekend.

Newcastle is a very similar team to the Gold Coast; quite young (as a combination), well coached and overachieving (until the last few weeks). It is perhaps not a surprise both teams have (finally) dropped off, but it is probably somewhat more disturbing for Newcastle, given their team was relatively more intact than Gold Coast’s and they were up against less talented opposition. While it can be understood that the Roosters had the motivation of playing for their 2010 coach and losing the wooden spoon, Newcastle’s effort was just not good enough.

In years gone by, Penrith was always a risk of losing when expected by most to win, while they were also a risk of winning when expected by most to lose. These traits looked to have disappeared this season and they were more ‘predictable’ than they had been but the last two weeks has seen their notorious inconsistency return.

Their impressive win in Townsville was followed up by a woeful first 52 minutes against the Warriors, but somehow Penrith escaped from this amazing game with a point. The return of their inconsistency may not be a problem this week (when they play the Dragons), but they will need to perform well against the likes of Brisbane and Souths if they are to play in September this year.

Finally, Parramatta have been very poor against lesser NRL teams this season and some expected a fired-up Cronulla would continue this trend, but Parramatta’s great run of success at Woolooware and a winning streak and solid form which reminds many of their late run in 2006 was further built upon on Sunday as they thrashed the gallant Sharks.

Hayne and Watmough are…well…’men against boys’ does not do them justice

Put simply, Jarryd Hayne and Anthony Watmough are running rampant over their opposition each week at the moment. Parramatta and Manly have played some impressive teams in recent weeks but this has not slowed down Hayne or Watmough. They also dominated the latter State of Origin games and have continued their form into this part of the NRL season — very few players can claim this last point.

More impressively for Hayne, his form has largely occurred without any significant help from his team-mates. As Parramatta’s winning run has continued, so has the help Hayne has received, which bodes well for the Eels, but early on, he was almost a one-man band.

Watmough is part of perhaps the best forward pack in the NRL, but his all-round efforts — his defence is hard-hitting without being hit or miss, his dummy half runs and hole running are both exemplary — mean he can have a significant influence on a game without making the highlights on the news. But he was everywhere against the Tigers last night, scoring tries, at dummy half, in defence and for 80 frenetic minutes as well.

It is hard — very hard — to repeat as NRL premiers (Or…to soar without wings and a sense of direction is extremely difficult).

Unfortunately for Watmough, his team is hard-working but dumb. Manly should have handily defeated the Tigers last night, but failed to exploit the holes in the Tigers’ hard-working but ultimately sloppy defence until it was too late.

Also, their attack near the opposition goal-line was once again dumb. Too much sideways movement and a poor kicking game from Matt Awful and Jamie Lyon meant the Tigers’ new-found verve in defence was very effective in the first 50 or so minutes.

However, Manly’s endurance and greater physical capability meant they were able to come home extremely strongly once it became apparent the Tigers were happy with 19 points on the board. Tony Williams — The Comatose Giant — awoke from his year-long slumber to score an incredible try (then fell asleep once again) but it was Watmough and his skilful hole-running which dramatically cut into the Tigers’ lead.

Manly’s other winger, David Williams, almost scored after TCG’s effort to start the years of work needed to make up for his horrific first-half blunder but was just pushed into touch. For those who missed it, Robbie Farah miscued a field goal late in the first half and the ball fell to Wolfman. Channelling former Eel Paul Carige and his infamous semi-final blunder from 1998, Wolfman decided a long kick straight to the Tigers was the best play here. Unfortunately, Benji Marshall decided against the field goal attempt (as took place after Carige’s blunder), which would have been a brilliant moment.

While the theatre of the moment was not lost on anyone watching the game, this may prove to be the end of the Wolfman. Perhaps his best characteristic was his ability to shrug off mistakes and continue to run the ball fast and hard. Origin tested him as he hadn’t been tested before, but no matter how many mistakes he made and how many times Inglis palmed him off, his self-confidence remained strong. But in the second half last night…David Williams (sans beard) was a wreck. The Tigers sensed this and pressured him relentlessly; fortunately he made no more howling errors (like Carige did).

Those with a greater sense of history would remember fellow winger Steve Mavin and his catastrophic display against Canberra in week 2 of the finals in 1987. After a number of blunders and Canberra on the way to a cricket score, he was replaced and left the ground quickly. Mavin’s career was not as doomed as Carige’s but Wolfman would hope his career is not like either...but it could be possible.

Despite all of Manly’s problems, they still should have won, as the Tigers faded. Alas, Matt Awful missed one field goal and was on the way to a horrendous miss, before the charge-down gave Manly the ball again inside the last minute. The Tigers’ defence was shot and stranded on the line; Awful didn’t know whether to shape for the field goal and the certain win in golden point or the match-winning try as the ultimate knockout punch. Both options were very available, but Awful went for the lowest percentage option and failed with his fling pass to TCG.

In many ways, this game represented Manly’s season so far: a wonderful team on paper, looking (at times) world-beating, but just off their game enough in some key areas so that success is so close but yet so far. At their best, they could very well repeat as premiers, but the effort they’ve had to expend this season after their slow start, the additional workload of their Origin players and the accrued ‘miles on the clock’ means that a Manly premiership win will be somewhat harder work than it was in 2008. Perhaps the return of Brett Stewart will be the catalyst they need (and will help them to put either Wolfman or TCG — or both — into reserve grade), but it would be no disgrace after all they’ve had to endure if they do not repeat as premiers; it is extremely difficult.

See you next week.

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Round 20: It's a Small World After All...

In the collision sport of Rugby League, where size and strength are such important characteristics for almost every player, it seems somewhat counter-intuitive that it is the smaller players who will most likely determine their team’s success (or lack thereof) in a given season but it is well-known across the NRL.

After all, it is relatively easy to get size and strength; these characteristics can be acquired and developed via hard work. But the characteristics of the smaller men in the NRL — their speed, their guile, their playmaking instinct, their “nose” for a possible try-scoring situation — are more often than not much more difficult to come by than size and strength.

Not surprisingly, by extension, there is not much of a difference between the size and strength of most NRL playing rosters, but the “smaller men” characteristics are not so evenly distributed: for the most part, those teams with the more talented smaller men usually succeed, in a given round and over the course of a season.

Round 20 was no exception; below are the smaller men who led their teams to victory over the weekend and/or have played a significant role in their team’s success so far this season.

Manly: Ben Farrar and Kieran Foran.

Some may wonder why Matt Awful’s name is not listed as Manly’s most important smaller man. Basically, it is because Awful is a follower, not a leader. Apart from a game or two every few months, he really only shines when Manly is dominating their opposition. Perhaps his snide surname should be Hayden…?

Anyway, Manly’s recent resurgence has largely coincided with the infusion of some youthful exuberance and speed into the backline in the form of Ben Farrar and Kieran Foran. Manly would have been doing cartwheels when the Cowbores said they were happy to take Michael Bani off their hands in exchange for Ben Farrar. Farrar’s versatility, his speed and ability to find the tryline have given Manly’s backline a boost as they continue to overcome the loss of Brett Stewart.

Meanwhile, Foran’s emergence has given Manly their first real five-eighth since…Cliffy? Or maybe Luke Williamson? Anyway, Manly coach Des Hasler is reluctant to play kids unless absolutely necessary, so you know Foran is a very good player if Hasler is finding room for him in his line-up. These two have helped spark Manly’s run of late and were important in their excellent win over Newcastle. Sure, Newcastle might have been missing several key players, but for Manly to produce such an efficient effort with the ball after their unnecessarily hard win against Cronulla must have been very encouraging for all concerned.

Gold Coast: Preston Campbell

This could easily have been the tackling machine Nathan Friend (who laboured in pain to another amazingly lion-hearted effort against Brisbane) but it is Campbell, at age 48 (a slight exaggeration perhaps…but you know he will still be playing at close to his current level by then), who is most important for the Titans. Even more so than Scott Prince, as the Titans showed earlier in the season when they won several difficult matches without him.

Campbell has great utility value, can tackle some of the biggest men in the game (this is incredible when you remember back to his Penrith days where his defensive nous seemed gone) and has the amazing but quite contradictory parts of his game where he can create a try out of nothing but also play the percentages when it is required. Yes, the Titans have up-and-comer Zillman and veteran Mat Rogers to play Campbell’s usual positions, but neither of those has enjoyed much good form this season, making Campbell’s value to the Titans even greater.

Campbell and his team mates earned a rare half hour off after demolishing Brisbane in the game’s first 50 minutes on Friday night. Rarely have three late tries meant as little as those from the extremely weakened Broncos.

Parramatta: Daniel Mortimer

Parramatta’s incredible form of late — where they produced some brilliant play against the NRL’s best but have been patchy and inconsistent against teams closer to their ladder position — has been largely due to Jarryd Hayne, who has been white-hot in recent months. Not even the heavy workload of the State of Origin series has worn him down (as it has for so many others).

However, following closely behind Hayne has been rookie half Daniel Mortimer. In just a few short games — where his debut in the NRL was apparently fast-tracked due to the Eels’ shortage of halves — it has become quickly apparent that Mortimer is more than good enough to have a long NRL career. With the ball, his sharp playmaking and kicking instincts have surprised opponents and set up a number of important Parramatta tries and his speed and toughness (cliché alert) have reminded many of his Uncle Steve.

In defence, even though he is only relatively slight, he is a confident and solid defender. Perhaps the best compliment about his defence is that you rarely notice it: he is not being brushed off for opposition tries or exploited for his lack of experience.

Mortimer and his team-mates’ defence was given a solid examination by the Bulldogs on Saturday night and passed with flying colours. However, it must be said that the Bulldogs’ examination paper, while quite lengthy, was one of the easier ones they’ve handed out this year (although the old women supervisors were their usual annoying selves, finding a number of trivial infractions against the Parramatta students and that Jamal Idris’ question late in the first half was actually legitimate….ok I’ve tortured this metaphor enough)

Penrith: Michael Jennings…and many others

Despite a number of injuries to experienced leaders of their team, Penrith has continued to win games: they have probably overtaken Newcastle as the dark horse for premiership success (if some of these injured stars can return in coming weeks).

Why have they been faring quite well still? Their smaller men, underrated by many, are some of the best in the NRL. Michael Jennings has returned from Origin and is dominating the NRL. Most importantly for Penrith, his speed and acceleration have seen his try-scoring tally explode in recent weeks, while Penrith have won their last 7 games when Jennings has played.

However, players such as Jarrod Sammut, Paul Aiton, Michael Gordon and Luke Walsh have all made their mark this season. Sammut’s quite incredible range of skills (some of which are not necessarily useful on an NRL field — such as his spinning a rugby league ball on his index finger basketball-style for a solid 10 seconds in the pre-game warm-up on Saturday night — but are still amazing all the same) mean he is a threat to win a game for Penrith at any time. Equally, his confidence means he can make a game-turning mistake, but coach Matthew Elliott has realised letting him play creates the best environment for his talents to shine. One can only hope Penrith keeps Sammut at full-back when Lachlan Coote returns from injury.

Aiton’s improved play from dummy half and Gordon’s solid play (which really only became obvious during his long period with injury) and very reliable goal-kicking have also become vital for Penrith, but their season moved in the right direction when they signed halfback Luke Walsh from Newcastle. Penrith had been crying out for a halfback since Gower left and Wallace was given away to Brisbane and Walsh’s maturity beyond his years and playmaking nous have made him a perfect addition to a talented but rudderless team.

However, they were somewhat lucky to come away from Townsville with two points on Saturday night. Clearly the Cowbores still had Origin hangover, but were also missing Payne and O’Donnell once again. Feral Thurston probably needs a good break (although without the Stilnox and Red Bulls this time)…but most of the second half saw the Cowbores with a lead and attacking Penrith’s line.

But Penrith largely held true and found their way down the field quite easily where their vim and vigour was simply too much for the Cowbores. Jennings snapped up any try-scoring opportunity that came his way, Sammut’s bravery sealed the win while Gordon….basically broke the rules to score his try. However, the video referee didn’t think so and Penrith emerged with an important win.

Melbourne: Billy Slater

While his State of Origin club mates have all been in need of a week (or more) on the sidelines of late, Slater has continued to turn up for work every game and actually do more than his normal workload. In their game against Parramatta on Monday night (when Smith and Finch were both absent), Slater spent a fair amount of time at dummy half and five-eighth as well as his normal fullback position and rarely looked fatigued despite this heavier workload. Whereas anything not involving running was something of a difficult task for Slater in years gone by, he is now almost a fairly good playmaker and more than capable dummy half replacement after many years of working on his game.

Slater once again rose to the week-in week-out challenge of NRL Rugby League on Saturday night as Cronulla tried to make it back-to-back wins in Melbourne and a quite intriguing game took place. Slater set up Melbourne’s first try, but Cronulla was next to score — well into the second half. This was despite a fairly significant in-game injury toll, including Trent Barrett twice knocking himself out on Brett White. It was hard to tell what was more amazing: the fact that these two players came together in such a way twice or that White knocked someone out without having team-mates holding his opponent’s arms.

While Cronulla lost several players, they had much good attacking ball and the Storm was missing a number of key players after their tough game against Parramatta. For Melbourne’s makeshift defence to concede just one try while the game was up for grabs was quite the achievement…although Cronulla could quite rightly argue that their attack may have been somewhat more capable without so many injuries. Either way, it was a well-deserved runaway win for Melbourne, but Cronulla was certainly very brave.

Wests Tigers: Tim Moltzen and Shannon Gallant.

The Tigers’ season has turned around since Tim Moltzen was shifted to halfback (his correct position), John Morris was shifted from five-eighth to utility off the bench (mostly lock…also his correct position) and Shannon Gallant was given another chance in the fullback role (which is his…you guessed it…correct position). It only took Tim Sheens 16 rounds to realise the error of his team selection ways (or 68 rounds in the case of John Morris): this guy is somehow the Australian coach? Amazing…

Anyway, better late than never I suppose, but encouragingly for the Tigers, their thrashing of Canberra on Sunday featured defence. Do not adjust your sets; the Tigers won a game on the back of tackling hard and disrupting another team’s attack.

After getting to a 6-nil lead after Moltzen stepped through a sizeable gap, the Tigers’ defence (with one contribution from the video referee) held Canberra out repeatedly over the next few minutes. As yet another set of Canberra tackles looked set to fail, a desperate Dugan offload was intercepted by Moltzen and returned 90 metres for a 12-nil lead. The game was basically won at this point.

Gallant helped extend the lead when he took an offload from Todd Payten and zoomed down the sideline before kicking inside for Morris. There’s every chance of the Tigers’ recent good form being another late-season tease before a legitimate team (which will probably be Parramatta in Round 24) ends their season, but there is no doubt the Tigers are fun to watch when they play well. This just might see the Tigers extend Sheens’ contract once again — ensuring entertaining mediocrity for another few seasons.

St George Illawarra: Jamie Soward

First place on the ladder (four points clear). Everyone back from injury. A well-timed bye after the end of Origin. The best defence in the NRL. Their opponents had the worst attack in the NRL. A clear and sunny day forecast (so as the inferior opponents couldn’t rely on the conditions to even up the contest). Yep, everything seemed perfect for the Dragons on Sunday when they took on New Zealand. Perhaps a little too perfect; the Dragons have a tendency over many years of playing poorly when they should register a crushing win.

It turned out that not everything was perfect for the Dragons: Jeremy Smith was a late scratching in his efforts to come back from a very long injury layoff while Matt Cooper also missed the game, but it barely mattered. The game proceeded almost exactly as coach Wayne Bennett would have wanted (and very similar to their win over the Tigers a month ago): early points for a strong lead and then tackling and defensive practice. The pathetic Warriors attack tried hard, but was lucky to reach 4 points, while Jamie Soward again led his team to a comfortable win.

Soward’s emergence as a dominating, confident playmaker has perhaps been the story of the season so far. Under the excellent coaching of Bennett, Soward has become a leader. His decision-making is first-rate, his execution of plays is flawless, his all-round kicking game (long kicks, short kicks, bombs, field goals and goal-kicking) is perhaps the best in the game…but his blinding speed always seems to be worth a try or two as well. You’d have to imagine he will cool off at some point in the weeks ahead, but the Dragons are deserved favourites to win the premiership this season with Soward running the team.

Souths: Jamie Simpson

Last night saw Souths beat their third straight sub-par opponent…although you can only beat the teams you’re drawn to play, right? Despite the 20-point win, it was a scratchy overall effort in a game where, apart from a few bursts of intensity, little great play was seen. Perhaps Souths got a little bit bored…hard to blame them really, but the degree of difficulty of their opponents is set to increase markedly in coming weeks. This should provide a welcome challenge and give them a good idea of where they’re at.

Another strange characteristic of Souths’ recent run has been that it has not coincided with any stellar play from most of their smaller men. Luke, Sandow, Merritt and Wing have all shown glimpses and will most likely have to lift in coming weeks, but their play has not been spectacular. Instead, Souths’ best smaller man recently has been winger Jamie Simpson, whose inspired charges and surprising speed have been a catalyst. He is somewhat unsteady under the high ball though…this could be considered a metaphor for Souths as a whole: capable of brilliance but also very likely to be brought undone by simple mistakes.

Some of them are difficult to spot, but keep an eye on the smaller men over the next few months. Chances are the team celebrating on the last Sunday of the season will have several very good ones. Or maybe a team will fluke premiership success with someone like Shane Perry in a key position….? See you next week.

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Round 19: Origin 3: The Fallout

A fairly crazy Round 19 of NRL action had its genesis — in two ways — in last Wednesday’s night epic State of Origin.

Every State of Origin match is played at a speed and intensity several levels above a typical NRL match. Despite this, most Origin players are typically able to back up for their NRL teams on the following weekend, with many of these players able to play starring roles despite heavy legs, bumps, bruises and sometimes even injuries picked up from the previous Wednesday night.

However, last Wednesday’s State of Origin match was such a battle with such physical and mental consequences that most players were either unable to back up for their NRL club (due to injury, possessing the will but not the ability to fight or just general soreness) or posted a far from spectacular performance. This was even seen with those who have an excellent reputation of backing up for their NRL club after Origin.

In addition to the effect of last Wednesday night on the individual Origin player, it also hit those teams with more Origin players quite hard. The State of Origin series and — to, a lesser extent, Test Matches — has become quite the vital cog in the NRL’s parity strategy — albeit with a lag. As a team makes the move from cellar-dweller to contender, this usually leads to players from that team moving into representative teams. However, a preference from representative selectors for those players who have ‘done it before’ can mean that some teams enter their decline whilst possessing a greater-than-average percentage of representative players (and some teams can make their ascent up the NRL ladder without much of a representative cohort e.g. Manly prior to this year).

In Round 19, following such a brutal Origin game, it was perhaps not surprising to see a number of teams with fewer players from Origin 3 faring better than their more Origin-represented opponents. Perhaps not coincidentally, it was those teams with Queensland Origin players who suffered the most in Round 19, led by the stunning capitulation of the Broncos on Friday night.

As often seems to happen with visiting teams at Suncorp Stadium, Souths started quite strongly against Brisbane, but Brisbane seemed keen for a battle — at least when they had the ball. As the game neared half time, Souths held a 10-6 lead but both teams looked dangerous: a high-scoring game seemed certain, but the explosion of points which soon followed from Souths — and the very easy manner in these points came — was still quite a shock.

While Brisbane was missing Origin players Lockyer and Thaiday, it is important to note that their left side defence — the side Souths attacked relentlessly — was intact. In other words, it was almost inexplicable to see Souths causing carnage every time they passed the ball right and ran. You’d have to think Brisbane would have done something to stop the bleeding if Lockyer and Thaiday would have played, or if their other Origin players Hunt and Hodges had anything to back up their initial 20 minutes’ worth of verve, but this should not detract from the awesome manner of Souths’ victory.

Alas, for supporters of the much-maligned but now on-fire Souths’ five-eighth John Sutton, the two highlights from this game which will be seen for years to come will be Colin Best’s momentum being halted by a sideline cameraman and referee Tony De Las Heras’ consciousness being (briefly) halted by Tonie Carroll’s knee. You’d have to think Carroll and his team mates wished their memory of this slaughter was erased as well…

While Brisbane have gone from a team who would win after every Origin game to a rabble in just a few short years, perhaps the greatest shock in this post-Origin weekend was the rubbish game played by Feral Thurston at Leichhardt on Sunday. Feral is acknowledged as the best player in the NRL at backing up after representative games, but his insipid effort was a major factor behind the Cowbores being well beaten by the Tigers.

It wasn’t the best of weeks for the Feral. Firstly, he was lucky to even be playing for the ‘Bores in this game. As David Williams fortuitously received the ball from Billy Slater in the in-goal area last Wednesday night and went (rather clumsily) to put the ball down, Feral was in the vicinity and, recalling the lessons he’d received from Billy Slater, tried to position his legs under Williams so as to avoid the try being scored.

Someone obviously forgot to tell Feral that Billy is a world-class athlete, with training in gymnastics and equestrian, not to mention 6 years’ experience at the Bellamy Robot School in Melbourne. Feral, on the other hand…well, as an athlete, he makes a pretty good play-making halfback. It can only be assumed that body control and flexibility was one of the last characteristics acquired in the evolution of man….? Whatever the reason, Feral’s attempted try-saving manoeuvre resulted in a swift boot being delivered to the face of Williams.

Further proof of Feral’s Neanderthal-Like behaviour came in the aftermath to this incident, where he joined the Lleyton Hewitt Hall of Fame for telling NSW Captain Kurt Gidley (after Gidley told the referees about Feral’s actions with his boot) to “Shut up, you spastic!”

Somehow, incredibly, Feral received the lightest of charges from the judiciary and was able to play on Sunday but even with this good fortune, the end of a long representative season told on him and he (and his team) stunk.

The Tuesday Roast, as you are all no doubt well aware, takes great pride in objectivity and providing a balanced discussion of the week in the NRL. However, the sight of the Tigers giving the Cowbores a hiding at the home of Rugby League (Leichhardt Oval) with Feral (“Australia says NO!”) having a shocker remains, unequivocally, the best in the game.

Feral’s week was topped off by this description of him from the radio show Fire Up! (on FBI 94.5FM) last Friday morning as they led into referring to his botched try-saving attempt and subsequent spastic comment…”But Johnathan Thurston…he’s on the jungle juice, we don’t know what concoction he’s on, but they’ve got something up at North Queensland, we don’t know what it is. He’s sprouting acne around his neck, he’s got hair in places you shouldn’t have. His veins pop like Jack Nicholson in The Shining. He’s got eyes to match and he came up with a classic…. And let’s not forget he has to wear headgear to restrain those Dumbo-like ears, because if he doesn’t wear his headgear and he puts on a spurt, he’ll fly over the top of the defence!”

Ahh brilliant! Anyway…the Tigers got off to a slow start as the ‘Bores jumped to an 8-nil lead, but the Tigers halted the ‘Bores’ momentum and cut the lead to 2. But the key moment in the game came in the lead-up to this try, when Anthony Watts — a former protégé of Paul Gallen at Cronulla — responded to what he thought was an elbow in the scrum by king-hitting Robbie Farah. The key response came when the referees deemed Watts’ actions worthy of….a warning. A warning! Watts, a grub and a thug with a history of disgusting on-field conduct, was lucky to stay on the field!

Thankfully the Tigers sorted out this oversight in the next scrum and, in doing so, made the task of seeing rather more difficult for Watts over the next few days. Not even seeing his team mate get beaten up could fire up Feral, but the Tigers dominated the next 20 minutes, before easing off for a while, then finishing with a flourish. The ‘Bores definitely missed the usual post-Origin Feral, but also his injured Origin team mate Matt Scott.

The other NRL team to feature a number of Queenslanders is Melbourne and while their overall effort last night against Parramatta wasn’t too bad, it was not enough to match that of the Eels, who were at their best. Melbourne was missing Smith, while Dallas Johnson and Greg Inglis were far from their normal selves (although Billy Slater had a very good game) but Parramatta would have beaten most teams in the NRL with their excellent combination of all-round intensity and desperate defence.

It was Nathan Hindmarsh’s 250th game, but Jarryd Hayne — again — was the star of the show. He was a threat almost every time he touched the ball, he was increasingly involved in playmaking and kicking but his battle against Slater was….just awesome. The viewing public was treated to a clash between two of the best players in the NRL, both at or near their best, both exhibiting extreme competitiveness and both being very important to their team’s chances of victory.

When Parramatta scored 8 points early in the second half (and probably should have had 14 if it wasn’t for an unnecessary Krisnan Inu double movement) with Hayne playing a pivotal role, it seemed as though Hayne would win the battle, but when Melbourne continued to close the deficit despite time running out (where Slater was crucial), the outcome was somewhat less certain.

In the end, Hayne (and Parramatta) triumphed, in part to Parramatta’s excellent on-line defence after reaching their 12-point lead. They denied what appeared to be a number of certain Melbourne tries (although they were a touch lucky when Hayne appeared to bounce the ball, rather than ground it, in his in-goal area) and made the Storm run out of time.

But while the Storm stars were probably justified in feeling a little tired after Origin, the same could not be said for Hayne, who continued his white-hot form of recent months. Has he been going through the motions since bursting on to the scene 3 years ago and, as a result, has a surplus of energy and enthusiasm? How does he have the energy to continue to play at such a high level after a full representative season?! Amazing…

The other two games featuring a high number of Origin players were Cronulla v. Manly and the Bulldogs v. Gold Coast. The Cronulla v. Manly game was one of the more bizarre games seen this season. With Manly’s strong defensive record, Cronulla’s so-so attack and the slippery night conditions making scoring difficult, a tight low-scoring game was expected by many. Instead, the first half saw 38 points, with mistake after mistake being punished for tries by both teams. Clearly, Manly’s Origin players did not have the requisite approach for this game and Cronulla’s youthful exuberance benefited, as they took a 6-point lead to half-time.

But the second half…was the exact opposite. Manly dominated possession and field position but their attack was far too predictable (even for a novice defence such as Cronulla’s) and not nearly threatening enough. Manly was big and strong and ran hard, but it was mostly sideways: it was like a team of lumberjacks trying to cut down a tree with a butter knife.

If Cronulla’s Jack Afamasaga didn’t throw a stupid offload to Manly’s Watmough, Barrett would not have been sin-binned and Manly would probably still be trying to score a second-half try. But Barrett’s sin-binning saw Cronulla open up and allow an easy try and eventually Manly overwhelmed the tiring Cronulla defence. You’d have to say though this required far more effort than was necessary.

On Friday night, the Bulldogs proved that backing up from Origin successfully was not that difficult as they were quite clinical in defeating the Gold Coast. This season, the Titans have been at their best when playing highly rated teams and their bare-minimum win over Parramatta last Monday night suggested they had their eye on the Bulldogs and another big-name scalp. Unfortunately for them, the Bulldogs also had their eye on this game (especially after losing to the Titans earlier in the season). Their early-game dominance rendered the Titans’ effort (which usually — at the very least — neutralises good teams, allowing their speed to score points) almost useless and saw them jump out to a handy lead.

The Bulldogs’ cause was boosted by the surprise return of Jamal Idris; he brushed aside Mat Rogers with ease before racing away for a try. But the Bulldogs’ lead was probably not as large as it should have been and when continued (and increasingly varied) Gold Coast attacking plays finally came off, the game got a far closer finish than it probably should have had. Kimmorley sealed the win with a late field goal, but he, Patten (NSW 18th man), Ennis and Morris all had excellent games for the Bulldogs.

The final 2 games in Round 19 had only minimal Origin players involved, but their results can still be linked to last Wednesday night. Admittedly, the link was somewhat tenuous in the Penrith v. Canberra game, where Canberra had a horrible first half with refereeing decisions. There weren’t a number of clear cut mistakes but Penrith almost always received the benefit of a doubtful decision during the first 40 minutes as they accrued an 18-0 lead. But Canberra’s forward grunt was limited by the absence of Queenslander Shillington and an injury to New South Welshman Learoyd-Lahrs (as well as to Alan Tongue); by the time Canberra was competitive in this game, the damage was done.

Lastly, the Warriors broke their drought (point-scoring and winning) in a late win against the Roosters. Without the wannabe pugilist Price, the Warriors looked to have finally (maybe) turned the corner after falling behind 12-0 and 18-6 to the Roosters. A team with a bit more in the tank than the Roosters might well have punished the Warriors as they tired in the second half, but it was ultimately a deserving win for them, as they finally stood up without their forward leader.

In most seasons, there is a definite post-representative letdown seen for those NRL teams with a significant number of Origin players; one would expect this letdown to be somewhat more pronounced this season given the above-average intensity of the final two Origin games and the high number of players carrying injuries in these games. It should be an intriguing next few weeks ahead. See you next week.

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Round 18 - Manly v. Bulldogs: A Closer Look

While many considered last Monday night’s Manly – Bulldogs game to be one of the best – if not the best – seen so far this season, it was rather unfortunate scheduling for those without Fox Sports or unable to get to Brookvale. How Channel 9 passed on this game when scheduling for Friday night (or even Sunday afternoon) – while showing the St George Illawarra v. Roosters and Penrith v. Parramatta games instead – remains a mystery.

However, another victim of Channel 9’s baffling scheduling decision was the Tuesday Roast. Given the Tuesday morning publishing time, it follows that the Roast cannot be substantially rewritten after any Monday night game. This was disappointing (just quietly, how versatile is the word ‘disappointing’? It can be used to describe anything from game time weather to the worst of rugby league scandals) once it became apparent that this year’s edition of Manly v. Bulldogs at Brookvale was another classic.

With the shortened round 18 of the NRL providing few highlights or incidents worthy of a Roast of their own, below is a closer look at last Monday night’s epic.

In the lead-up to this game, Manly’s strong recent form, their need for this to continue to have a realistic shot at defending their title and the home-ground advantage meant they were a slight favourite with the bookmakers, but this reasoning ignored significant recent history between Manly and the Bulldogs.

Since Manly returned to the NRL elite in 2005, every Bulldogs’ visit to Brookvale has caused them problems. In 2005 and 2007, the Bulldogs scored 19-point victories, each of which saw long Manly home winning streaks come to an end. In (late) 2006, Manly only just got the win over the Bulldogs who were without Mason and Asotasi and who had already secured 2nd position (although Manly was without their inspirational leader Ben Kennedy), while last season, Manly finally secured a rare (relatively) easy win, although it was far from convincing against a Bulldogs team without Luke Patten.

For whatever reason in the NRL, some teams just happen to play well against others or at certain grounds; the Bulldogs at Brookvale is one of those combinations.

However, at the risk of enraging Manly supporters, the Bulldogs’ ongoing success at one of the more difficult venues in the NRL for opposing teams to score a win comes from their superior big-game mentality. The Bulldogs’ success over the last 30 or so years is built on the siege mentality, which is best seen in their important wins away from home. Typically, they know exactly how to approach big games and especially know the difference between big games during the season and big games during the finals. More on this later.

In contrast, Manly’s success in recent years has been built upon superior physical attributes than their opposition. Their backrowers possess an abnormal combination of size, strength, speed, agility, leadership, endurance and now (with Glenn Stewart) ball-playing ability. Their ability to play 80 minutes means their army of props (generally with superior physical conditioning to many) can be rotated and dominate. On the back of this, Manly’s kicking game, dummy half service and point scoring ability come from a very helpful base.

However, for those who can match Manly physically, the task of beating them is not nearly as difficult. In Matt Awful, they may have a halfback capable of (somehow) winning a Dally M Medal, but not nearly as capable of doing much to lead Manly to a difficult win. Partly because of Awful’s major limitations when his forwards are not dominant, but also because of the one-dimensional leadership of Des Hasler and legacy of Ben Kennedy, Manly’s typical response when placed under pressure – i.e. when the opposition does not break under the strain of Manly’s dominant forward pack – is, quite simply, to try even harder. In other words, they rarely try anything different or unusual to crack a team, but execute their normal game-plan at a higher intensity in the belief that their superior physical attributes will eventually break their opposition. This is especially the case for Manly without Brett Stewart, but even with him, his brilliance was only ever seen in maybe a handful of different game situations (such as him sweeping around behind the decoy runner or having an Awful wrong-way kick done for him to chase).

Last Monday night, Manly started strongly and, knowing that the Bulldogs were without props Hannant and Armit (and hence had a rather small team), tried to press home their advantage via their size. But Manly’s attack was not quite in rhythm and the Bulldogs’ defence didn’t allow any more than an early try: the fact that the Bulldogs did not break under this pressure and, perhaps, also due to memories of previous Bulldogs’ wins recurring in their head meant Manly started to…perhaps not panic, but feel less assured about their chances of winning.

So…they lifted, they tried harder. In 2005 and 2006, when Kennedy led Manly, this would happen in most games where Manly did not thrash their opposition: Manly would start strongly then fade a bit; subconsciously, the rest of the team was waiting for Kennedy to spark them. Since 2006, this pattern has not been as evident (and Manly’s winning percentage has been a fair bit higher), but the trend is still seen that, when they’re in a struggle (especially against a top team), their response is to keep it same, but do it harder.

Another sign of Manly’s inferior approach to this game was the slight changes to their game plan (or at least the play of certain individuals). Over the last two seasons, Manly used Jamie Lyon at five-eighth for much of the time, utilising (especially last season) his kicking game to take pressure off Awful. In 2009, following the signing of Chris Bailey, Lyon has stayed almost exclusively at centre, but he popped up at five-eighth again for much of this game.

Also, winger Dave Williams has made a name for himself during his relatively short time in the NRL for his hard and fast kick returns (which often bend back opposition defences). But we saw Williams introduce the pass (just before the line) into his repertoire early in this game, at times when he normally would rush into the defence.

Perhaps this was not a Hasler ploy, perhaps Williams was put off his game after Queensland jolted the ball loose on his runs in Origin 2, but the point with this (and with Lyon’s shift closer to the action) was that Manly had introduced some subtle changes to their game for this relatively unimportant (in the overall picture) match. It confirmed the always rather edgy Hasler was even more on edge for this game. In contrast, the Bulldogs have a long-established reputation for saving such slight adjustments for important games at the end of the season and kept within their set-up for all of this game.

The only times where the Bulldogs deviated from their “plan” was when several of their younger and less experienced players (as well as Michael Ennis – someone who really should have known better) got caught up in Manly’s (over)aggressiveness and gave away some quite unnecessary penalties for ill-timed aggression of their own. It became apparent fairly early on in this game that the Bulldogs needed to play smart and allow Manly’s aggressiveness and steadily increasing anxiety to be used against them and this almost happened (thanks to the excellent leadership of Kimmorley, Ryan, Patten, El Masri and (at times) Ennis) but, in the end, some dumb penalties given away by the Bulldogs probably cost them a win (along with some poor decision-making late on).

Manly jumped ahead fairly early and had significant amounts of good attacking possession over the next 20 or so minutes, but the Bulldogs held firm and looked gradually more threatening each time they attacked (although rarely had any good field position of their own). New Sea Eagle Ben Farrar was playing with enthusiasm but unfortunately he cost himself two tries through his haste during the first half.

When the Bulldogs scored with a rare venture into Manly’s area late in the first half, the arm-wrestle was on. Awful gave Manly a one-point half-time lead, but a L’Estrange spear tackle and a dumb defensive option by Glenn Stewart gave the Bulldogs a penalty goal and another try to Morris – and a 5-point lead.

Manly continued to enjoy quite good field position and had a number of attacking sets near the Bulldogs’ line, but with each Bulldog stop, the anxiety amongst Manly players and supporters grew: surely they can’t beat us here again?! Eventually, Manly’s weight of possession (aided by the aforementioned penalties and some errors) told and they scored in the corner. Incredibly, Awful – a notoriously poor goal-kicker – put his conversion attempt just inside the post and over the crossbar and Manly had a lead.

However, it seemed as though the Bulldogs would snatch a late victory. Despite their massive defensive workload, they had enough energy to enjoy several good attacking journeys in the game’s final 7 or 8 minutes, but took poor options on three occasions when field goal opportunities (and the potential for extra time) were on offer.

An incredible game like this deserved a great ending, and it came when Josh Perry picked up a loose pass and ran 30 metres to seal a famous win for Manly. While both teams were not quite at their best, they certainly played their hardest. A tight, absorbing, intense battle; it was a game for the ages.

Round 18 recap

Unfortunately, Manly’s passion on the field is also seen off the field as well. Specifically, they truly believe they are being hard done by when they have to play without their Origin players and truly believe the game would be better off if they could have their Origin players whenever possible. They conveniently ignore that virtually every good team since the early 1980s has had to make do without their Origin stars; it’s a fact of life for teams at the top in the NRL and a key plank in the NRL’s de facto measures to make the competition more even.

They should also thank their lucky stars they had such a small Origin representation last season (compared to Melbourne’s gargantuan contribution). Without this advantage, Melbourne is now shooting for three premierships in a row and Manly is nursing their wounds after their 11th grand final loss.

Yep, Manly was thrashed (although they competed for much of the game and was unlucky to concede a series of tries to the Dragons’ incredible speed) on Sunday and they had a whinge afterwards. It’s a little bit tough to blame your loss on missing players when your opposition was without just as many….

In other matches, Souths finally provided a glimpse of their potential as they soundly defeated Penrith. John Sutton led the way for Souths and is a serious threat for Orig…just kidding.

On Saturday, Newcastle’s inability to defeat teams below them on the ladder was set to be tested with the visit of the Raiders, but they received a major boost just three minutes into the game. No offence to Jarrod Mullen and his perhaps severe injury, but his loss meant Newcastle’s approach to the remainder of the game was similar to that of playing a top-four opponent: focus, intensity, a relatively simple game-plan and a huge defensive effort. Anything less without such an important player would have meant certain defeat. Their defence was outstanding, their attack was somewhat limited but did the job (led by the much-maligned Ben Rogers, who was forced into halfback but led his team brilliantly) and it was an amazing score-line of 23-4 in favour of a team who was dominated.

On Sunday, the Warriors had a brilliant opportunity to turn their season around: the 2008 Bulldogs (plus Stagg and Hodgson) came to town. The Warriors could have killed them early but didn’t and the severely limited Bulldogs (eventually) seized on this and threatened to post a big lead. It was only Andrew Ryan’s poor handling which prevented this, but then the Warriors – who can be so good when well behind – responded and took the lead back rather quickly. They had a number of chances to seal the win, but screwed them up or never got there and inexplicably allowed the Bulldogs to get all the way down field without anything more than running hard. They fully deserved their loss and will be nothing more than nuisance value from now on.

Finally last night, a rare thing happened: a team actually worried more about their next round opponent than their current round one. It does get talked about quite often, but this time, the Titans – with their next game just four days away (Friday vs. the Bulldogs) – thought 14 points was enough to beat Parramatta and pretty much stopped. They gave Parramatta about 50 minutes to beat them before firing up again for another 3 minutes to extend their lead slightly. They held on for the win in perhaps their least impressive effort this season.

Hopefully so much talk about Manly and the Bulldogs won’t make this Roast my least impressive effort of the season! Enjoy Origin, good luck trying to tip the ‘dead rubber’ and see you next week.

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Round 17: D'yawanna Seehaiku? (It’s a Question, Not the Newest Polynesian NRL Player)

A noteworthy feature of the NRL in 2009 has been the return of the older and wiser (relatively speaking) player. The factors which have driven the average age and number of older players in the NRL down over the last few decades (faster speed of game, bigger, stronger players and hence more force in every tackle, the salary cap remaining largely stagnant whilst salaries on offer elsewhere or in other sports have been rising, Reserve Grade’s gradual demotion from the First Grade curtain-raiser to sharing facilities with park Rugby League players and the increasing prevalence of NRL-ready physiques amongst up-and-coming teenage players) have been well-documented, but we may be witnessing an end to this trend. Thus far in 2009, a very important component to the success of those teams near the top of the ladder – while also improving the standing of some struggling teams – has been the increased presence of experience and wisdom, especially in the important playmaking positions.

The return of experience to the NRL has been seen in several forms. These include the star player (who, due to good luck, good management and a desire to continue playing in the NRL, continue to enjoy very successful careers well into “old age” e.g. Civoniceva, Price, Lockyer, El Masri, Simpson, Hindmarsh), the late career renaissance (those who have never left the NRL but may as well have, due to long-term injury, poor form, a dramatic improvement in coaching received or being stuck on a rubbish team before moving somewhere their talents come to the fore e.g. MacDougall, Chris Walker, Ryan, Kimmorley, Patten, Cooper, Campbell) and the return from elsewhere (otherwise known as “what time in the wilderness can do for a player’s perspective” e.g. Wendell, Stacey Jones, Brad Meyers, Barrett).

The most recent example of the value of experience culminated last week (but was apparently in the works for some time). Brisbane’s on-field experience was cut significantly over recent years and as the Broncos’ losing streak mounted, it became apparent that an older, harder head (and jaw) was needed. Enter Tonie Carroll, six months or so into a real estate agent career, but Brisbane’s fortunes turned around almost the instant after which he returned to the field on Friday night.

While it appears to be the end of the trend for more on-field youth in the NRL, it is hard to see the trend reversing: unless Rugby League once again fully embraces its working class roots, you won’t see most players debuting at age 23, you won’t see most clubs holding on to their veterans until they can no longer play and you won’t see older, smarter players receiving their due when they are on the open market.

However, it is not a stretch or an untruth to say that most NRL followers have enjoyed the return of the experienced player; the Tuesday Roast shares this sentiment. As a tribute to the experienced players of the NRL, this week’s Roast will incorporate literary techniques representative of cultures where experience and wisdom are highly sought-after and much-respected qualities. Yes, it’s Haiku time again.

St George Illawarra v. Sydney Roosters

A slow Dragons start
Was turned around after half
Powered by Soward

On paper, the top-of-the-table Dragons had a decided edge over the bottom-placed Roosters but, as long-time Dragons’ supporters will tell you, these are dangerous games. The supporters’ suspicions were confirmed in the first half, as a committed Roosters team played well above their ladder position to take a 6-point lead to half-time. While a slow start may have been expected by some, the TAB was sufficiently concerned by the Dragons’ effort to register them as only a slight favourite to come back and win.

As it turned out, the Dragons’ price for winning plummeted early in the second half as several penalties and a half-time adjustment or two (looking to pass wide so as to go around the Roosters’ compressed defence) saw the Dragons take the lead not long into the second half. As it was against the Tigers last week, it was Jamie Soward who led the way. His ever-improving decision-making meant it was raining opportunities for the Dragons’ right-side attack – first-time right centre Matt Prior scored two tries, while Wendell bagged one – before Soward finished off a solid win with yet another long-range, runaway try against the Roosters.

Brisbane v. New Zealand

For Un-Zid, it was
Must-win again, but Tunza
And DT were huge!

This game was the Warriors’ second in their South-East Queensland road trip and it was quite similar to their match against the Gold Coast last Saturday night. Again, the Warriors started very strongly but again, they couldn’t convert much of their advantage into points. And again, they chose a penalty goal, which turned out to be a poor choice, as their attacking opportunities dried up as the game went on.

But the story of this game was the dominance of Brisbane’s much-maligned Dave Taylor. He has shown glimpses of dominating games during his relatively short time in first grade, but his on-field time in first grade has reportedly been heavily reduced due to a poor attitude to training etc. For Brisbane to allow someone of such potential to sign elsewhere for next season suggests something is not right, but after watching Taylor put Warrior after Warrior on their back with barnstorming runs…surely these problems could have been worked through. Taylor could be one of the game’s great props.

One of Rugby League’s great locks in the last decade or so was Tonie Carroll. Little was expected from him in this game, his first game back after a comeback from retirement, but it was as if he’d never left. The hard runs off Lockyer on the edge of the ruck, the textbook crunching tackles…you get the impression he could play another few years (he may have to do this, of course, to put food on the table if life becomes much tougher in the Gold Coast real estate market).

Between Taylor and Carroll, Brisbane now had some punch in the forwards they’d been sorely lacking so far this season. This inspired Brisbane to come back from an early deficit and record a strong victory, with intensity and ball movement not seen in many matches (it was perhaps not a coincidence that Brisbane’s team play picked up once Folau went off injured).

Souths v. Wests Tigers

The Tigers are back…
…Sort of. Farah was great, but
Not much value here.

The first game on Saturday night was a tough one to tip, but also a tough one to watch: both the Tigers and Souths have been struggling mightily over the past month and beyond. While this game showed that Souths still have much work to do to in several areas – ‘on the field’ being the main one – the points-happy Tigers shouldn’t be too satisfied either. Once you score 36 points, there really shouldn’t be any nervousness, but this was the case as Souths mounted a mini-comeback and could have cut Wests’ lead to 12 with much time remaining.

However, when Simpson blew this chance, the Tigers steadied and added three more tries for a convincing win. Robbie Farah (a.k.a. the Ventriloquist) had a hand in almost every Tigers try, while Benji appeared more comfortable wearing number 6. Benji had some good moments but also some bad ones, but a sneaky highlight in this game came after Benji’s very questionable decision to try and set up Tuiaki for an inside pass near the Tigers’ goal-line saw Craig Wing knock the ball from Benji’s hands and lead to a Souths try. As replays of Benji’s silliness were being viewed, the music man played Katy Perry’s “Hot and Cold”: quite apt, really, for both Benji and the Tigers.

Melbourne v. Newcastle

Newcastle lift for
The big-name teams; but Storm
Hung tough, did enough

The bookmakers and (almost all) tipsters were pretty much unanimous: Melbourne just doesn’t lose two in a row, especially when the second game is at Olympic Park and even more so when their opposition is backing up five days after a Monday night game.

But this is not the same Melbourne Storm of 2006-2008: the Storm has had a number of close calls at home this season and really should have lost back to back games when the Warriors played them on ANZAC Day. Also, Newcastle is on the way to becoming a genuine premiership threat. Sure, they have troubles with consistency and disposing of teams they are expected to beat, but they have been nothing short of brilliant against teams above them on the ladder this season. Most importantly, Newcastle gave Melbourne two of their toughest games of 2008; a narrow loss at Olympic Park (where Melbourne’s reliance on Folau reached new heights – no pun intended) and an inspiring one-point win in Newcastle.

Despite being without veterans Simpson and MacDougall, Newcastle gradually dominated possession on Saturday night, but found points hard to come by due to a combination of excellent Melbourne defence and a very slippery surface. Nevertheless, Newcastle held a slim lead into the dying minutes of the game but just couldn’t hold on, as Inglis set up Chambers for the winning try.

Melbourne is somewhat difficult to decipher: at times, they appear brilliant, other times, they seem tired, but most of the time, they seem to do just enough (even if that’s not quite the plan) to win, especially at home. It remains to be seen how they will emerge from the Origin period; even in their best years, they have struggled to be near their best during this time.

North Queensland v. Cronulla

A tough one for the
Injury-hit Cowboys, but
They were just too good

An unusual challenge confronted Cronulla in the early minutes of their game against the Cowboys on Saturday night: their highly regarded opposition losing several important players. All of a sudden, Cronulla was not quite the rank outsiders many had expected them to be. They would have had the lead were it not for some excellent Cowboy defence and the archaic corner-post rule, but nevertheless a nil-all halftime score line against the Cowbores with Feral Thurston was a significant achievement.

The Cowboys lost another player to injury early in the second half; not necessarily a great player, but one hard to replace in the current interchange system (winger John Williams). This made their four-try burst to put the game out of the gallant Sharks’ reach even more impressive.

Canberra v. Gold Coast

Titans hate cold
Their Coast is Gold not cold, but
No thrashing this time

The Gold Coast has shown further improvement across many areas in their third season in the NRL. Even their winning percentage outside of Queensland – traditionally this has been poor – has increased towards fifty per cent.

But for some reason, the Titans just cannot compete for 80 minutes in Canberra. True, their second half comeback was impressive – they really had no right to have a chance at tying the score in the game’s final seconds – but they should never have been down 28-6 at halftime. It was simply too easy for Canberra, who played well, but not at the same level as they did when beating Melbourne last week.

Canberra’s monster forward pack again laid the platform against the injury-hit Titans but the unlikely duo of Phil Graham and Josh Miller each picked up two tries, which reflected shoddy play on the part of the Titans: Graham hasn’t outpaced any serious opposition since before his terrible run with injury, while Miller’s two close-range tries spoke volumes about Gold Coast’s on-line defence.

To compound matters, after Canberra lost winger Justin Carney to a horrible broken leg, the Titans failed to explore opportunities on Carney’s side of the field (the right side) where it is well known that Canberra’s defence was shoddy even when Carney was present. Canberra has to play a lumbering forward in their outer right-side defence, but Prince and others failed to test the resilience of Canberra’s makeshift defensive combination. Overall, it was another poor afternoon in Canberra for the Titans, although at least it was no annihilation this time.

Penrith v. Parramatta

A Wild West Shootout
But with bullets of rubber;
Defence > round de-field

A packed suburban ground, a cool but sunny afternoon, a local derby and both teams in need of a win: the ingredients for a fast, entertaining game at Penrith on Sunday afternoon were seemingly all ticked off. But it became clear from quite early on that both teams had left their desire to defend as a team in the change rooms or on the bus. There were many points scored but labelling many of these as ‘try’ would have been exaggerating things just a tad.

However, the game ended up being quite entertaining (as long as you didn’t look too closely at the ease with which points came) as the game featured a number of lead changes and a number of displays of attacking brilliance. Players such as Hayne, Mortimer and Hindmarsh for Parra and Jennings, Walsh and Paulo for Penrith wowed the crowd…but it seemed as though Parramatta had a slightly better attitude and, more importantly, the lead late in this game.

But the win – and perhaps Parramatta’s faint chances of making the top 8 – were snatched away by a combination of the lightning-quick Jennings and that Walsh and Graham got him early ball and space a number of times. His almost undefendable step allowed Penrith to re-take the lead for good with 4 minutes left and the first real defensive commitment of the afternoon from Penrith sealed the win.

Manly v. Bulldogs

A great rivalry
Manly (just); Dogs gutsy
Game of the season

Given other results during Round 17, but also for reasons of revenge and stating that their premiership defence was far from finished, this was a must-win game for Manly. Their play in the opening minutes reflected this; Manly generally plays with an intensity and force amongst the best in the NRL, but there was no doubt they were at their best in these key areas early on. Another motivation for their strong start would have been the smallish size of the Bulldogs’ forward pack.

Manly jumped to a 6-nil lead but couldn’t stretch this lead any further, despite major effort, and the Bulldogs felt more comfortable about themselves and their chance for victory as it became clear Manly’s efforts were rather inefficient at leading to points. To paraphrase a tenet of martial arts philosophy, it appeared that Manly’s (over)aggressive play could have led to their demise, due to smart but committed play from the Bulldogs.

This game eventually turned into an epic, as these two committed teams with somewhat different approaches traded the lead and good opportunities to win, before the outcome was decided in the game’s final minutes as Manly’s Josh Perry summoned the energy for one more run before sliding across the line.

How good was this game? Manly v. the Bulldogs at Brookvale has provided some of the better games in the NRL since 2005, but this was the best of the lot. It was so good, in fact, it deserves more than a few paragraphs; discussion of this epic will feature heavily in the upcoming Roast for Round 18.

On that note, sayonara and see you next week.

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