Round 2: The Round 2 Bounce-Back: Dead Cat, trampoline or something in between?

Noted rugby league media figure Phil Gould — one of the best coaches — and smartest players — in the modern era — once gave his perspective on how teams approach Round 2. In short, he believed that most teams invest heavily during the pre-season to have the best possible performance in Round 1…and that the Round 1 result can significantly impact upon how they play in Round 2.

A Round 1 victory – big or small, easy or well-earned – can give way to complacency or, at the very least, a little less urgency in the next game. This discrepancy in performance can be magnified if this team’s Round 2 opposition is one who lost – again, either a big or a small loss – in Round 1. A Round 1 loss, despite the combined effort of many over the pre-season, hurts and often drives teams to an even greater effort in Round 2.

Gould used to think so highly of his theory that his Round 2 tips had all the Round 1 losers winning in Round 2 (where they were up against Round 1 winners). Obviously he changed his mind – or forgot – about his theory, because his tips (as shown on http://www.smh.com.au and indicated in the Tuesday Roast tipping ladder) for Round 2 2011 included losses for all 6 Round 1 losers (who were playing Round 1 winners).

However, with a bit more thought, Gould probably would have done well to stick to his theory. How do the bounce back teams perform in Round 2 (against Round 1 winners) in the current era (i.e. since 2003)? And does the market (represented by the bookmakers i.e. where the smart money goes, or is supposed to go) adequately take the bounce back factor into account in Round 2? This week’s Roast takes a closer look at the phenomenon that is the Round 2 Bounce-Back.

Between 2003 and 2010, those teams who are capable of bouncing back when taking on teams coming off a Round 1 victory had a combined win-loss record of 17-18. Meanwhile, over the same timeframe, the market’s combined win-loss record in picking winners was 32-28 (or 53%); over this timeframe for all games, the market probably had a success rate closer to 65%.

So there was reason to expect some unexpected results over the weekend, especially as wet weather set in across Sydney. Six of the 8 Round 2 games involved a Round 1 loser taking on a Round 2 winner, with 4 taking place in Sydney. In addition, some teams were embarrassed in Round 1, while others looked headed in that direction by an early-season abundance of absent players.

In 2009 and 2007, there were also 6 Round 2 games where the bounce back could have happened and both times, the Round 1 loser won 4 out of 6. Here’s how the 6 potential bounce back games unfolded over Round 2 2011.

Parramatta v. Penrith: this one caught the eye of many as a potential bounce back game, given how poorly Penrith played in front of their home supporters in Round 1, but this looked a new Parramatta team, one with Storm-like qualities of patience and constant readiness to play tough, close games. Surely Penrith, the rabble of Round 1, couldn’t turn their mess around in just 5 days?

It may seem remarkably self-evident, but the potential bounce back teams could all take heart from the scoreboard in Round 2 starting at 0-0, never mind how bad it was at the end of Round 1 and how often they were reminded about this by supporters and media. Penrith relished the opportunity of a clean slate, forced Parramatta into an early error, monopolised possession in the early minutes and took an early lead.

From here, Parramatta followed much of the same plan that was so successful in Auckland last week but this opponent was much more committed, knew what was coming and had the weather on their side (Parramatta took few risks, even as the deficit mounted). Helped by an excellent kicking game (from Walsh and especially Lachlan Coote), Penrith enjoyed the best of field position and wore Parramatta down, only conceding points very late on.

Bounce Back 1 – Status Quo nil.

Canberra v. Brisbane: while Brisbane wasn’t thrashed like Penrith was, many thought they played near their best in going down in a close one to the Cowbores. Hence, many expected Canberra to win this one, led by their impressive forward pack.

These people didn’t adequately consider the debut of Matt Awful in Raiders colours.

There was some concern when Canberra took on Cronulla that Canberra’s rookie halfback Sam Williams might be out of his depth, especially being paired with Josh McCrone, who is not much older than Williams. However, Williams looked very talented, with great halfback instincts, a strong kicking game and the ability to run forward in attack.

The far more experienced but much less competent Awful has none of these qualities. Apparently though he is a worm (as in worming his way out of a contract with English club Bradford for no good reason) and a con-artist (as in convincing Canberra to sign him to a three-year contract when he was washed up in 2009 and given they have a future Origin player in Williams coming through the ranks).

Awful took over at the Storm after the halcyon Brett Kimmorley era and increasingly became a clone of the recently retired halfback. When Craig Bellamy took over as Storm coach and he became surrounded by some top-shelf talent (Slater, Smith, Hill, Kearns etc.), he looked like a mid to top level halfback. The Storm’s failure to progress beyond week 2 of the semi finals was apparently nothing to do with him, as evidenced by Manly offering him a massive four-year contract starting in 2006. They wouldn’t have been happy when Melbourne surged to the 2006 minor premiership with previously unknown Cooper Cronk replacing Orford.

Despite yet another failure to move beyond week 2 of the finals series in 2006, Awful somehow won the battle with previous incumbent halfback Michael Monaghan and rode the coattails of a dominant forward pack to grand finals in 2007 and 2008. Not content with defrauding Manly out of more than $1 million and a very good halfback, he somehow won the Dally M in 2008!

After the revelation of the Melbourne Storm systemic salary cap rorting, their two premierships are now recorded as asterisks in the record books. Surely, history will view the 2008 Dally M as being similarly tainted, not by cheating, but by being at the right place in the right time more than anyone has ever been and ever will be.

Not surprisingly, as Manly’s forward dominance wore off in 2009, so did those delusional people who thought Awful was a good player (especially those Dally M judges, who must still wake in the middle of the night with a cold sweat screaming “What were we thinking??????”). His waning days in the maroon and white were characterised by steering Manly’s attack across the park waiting for a straight runner that never materialised. By this time, Glenn Stewart and Jamie Lyon on the right were responsible for most of Manly’s incisive attack.

The game stayed tight for a while, but Canberra never looked like reaching double figures with Awful steering their attack (with that said though, he NEVER plays well behind beaten forwards and Canberra’s pack had a rare poor showing) and Brisbane put on two nice tries midway through the second half to secure a good win.

Bounce Back 2 – Status Quo nil.

Melbourne v. Gold Coast: the Titans, while short-handed, especially in the forwards, gave a solid account of themselves in Round 1 and looked a decent chance of defeating a Storm team which seemed to be getting used to their new, legal, line-up.

It might have been new players for the Storm, but they looked remarkably like players of old, as the Storm thrashed the Titans. Only 2 tries in the final 3 minutes put the Titans on the scoreboard. There was certainly no bounce back here.

Bounce Back 2 – Status Quo 1.

South Sydney v. Canterbury: Something has to break at Souths: a team full of big names, a celebrity owner, a large supporter base and an aging coach ready to explode after another fiery half-time speech. They looked to have the edge on the Bulldogs in the forwards and this proved to be correct as the game wore on in the second half, they were gaining more metres downfield with each set of tackles than the Bulldogs were. With some smart execution, it looked as though the tied score-line would eventually and ultimately favour Souths.

However, the Bulldogs, while struggling somewhat, did enough to stay in the game and would have been doing cartwheels when Chris Sandow decided to take a field goal and a one-point lead in the 67th minute. Not even Souths’ supporters cheered this! Ignoring the similarity between this and their Round 1 loss to the Roosters, the smarter than most Souths supporters realised they probably would have scored a try soon enough and that one point was taking a small gain at the cost of field position.

Sure enough, the Bulldogs made a break and Rhys Wesser’s try-saving tackle was immediately forgotten as he slowed the ensuing play-the-ball significantly enough to earn a 10-minute sin-bin stint. With under 10 minutes to go, the game was as good as gone; the Bulldogs scored soon after and again at the end to secure victory. This should have been another bounce back but for Souths’ dumb play.

Bounce Back 2 – Status Quo 2.

Sydney Roosters v. Manly: Now we get to the games where very few thought a bounce back might take place. Manly was missing a host of regulars to injury, suspension and a ‘training mishap’ (whatever that is). They had a solid starting line-up but their bench was almost anonymous, featuring two players on debut. Surely the Roosters would be far too good for such a weak team, with any necessary motivation needed to come from Manly’s overly aggressive behaviour in the teams’ last match in late 2010.

Instead, we saw an incredibly inspired effort from Manly combined with a lethargic performance by the Roosters. The Roosters were not helped by each of their three tries coming very easily; this surely only made a lax approach in the lead-up to the game even worse. Meanwhile, Manly played like their lives depended on the outcome. They rarely let up over 80 minutes, and when they did, another burst of intensity was not far off. Anthony Watmough led the forwards, showing he can star even when he’s not put through holes, but Kieran Foran was Manly’s best, with a physically dominant performance in both attack and defence.

Foran is far from a traditional five-eighth; in some ways, he’s like Kurt Gidley, an amazing athlete who could play numerous positions well but has to be in one position for the good of the team. It is still far from clear where he may end up, but performances such as this will dominate no matter where he plays. This was a textbook bounce back performance (from both teams).

Bounce Back 3 – Status Quo 2.

Cronulla v. St George Illawarra: this was the game the market gave the least chance of a bounce back, but this was a bit harsh. Cronulla, for all their failings, have a very good forward pack, partially at the expense of the Dragons, whose forward pack, while very competent, lacks some size and sting. Cronulla was embarrassed in Canberra last Sunday and figured to respond, especially against their local rivals. There was also the chance of a letdown for the Dragons after their return trip to England in recent weeks, while heavy rain also increased Cronulla’s chances, by emphasising their size advantage and forcing them to simplify their game.

However, in 2 and a bit seasons, the Dragons rarely have a bad game, especially early in the season and not against Canberra. Despite the above conditions, they had to be strong favourites against an inconsistent opponent such as Cronulla.

Ultimately, Cronulla prevailed; they won well, on the back of a dominant display from their forward pack, led by Gallen, Snowden and ex-Dragon Jeremy Smith. The edge for Cronulla was increased when Dragons prop Mick Weyman went off injured, but he probably wouldn’t have made that much difference.

While the Dragons were probably a little flat and the conditions didn’t allow them to get into their rhythm, they are bound to see oppositions filled with larger players until the Dragons forwards prove they can defeat (or at least neutralise) greater size.

However, the Dragons could have felt a little unlucky at several key decisions which went against them. They should have received another set of six tackles deep in attack early in the game, the penalty after Gallen’s short kick just before half time looked quite harsh and Stubs Pomeroy’s second try should not have been awarded as it would have fit nicely into the topic of this Roast: it most definitely BOUNCED.

With that said though, Cronulla was so dominant in the forwards that they probably would have won anyway. This was probably not in the class of the Roosters – Manly bounce back, but it was not far off.

Bounce Back 4 – Status Quo 2.

The other two games of Round 2 saw Wests Tigers ultimately triumph over the Warriors in the only match-up of Round 1 losers, while Newcastle gave another excellent performance in defeating the Cowbores. It was a very good reverse bounce back from the Cowbores, who looked good in Round 1, but absolutely inept in this game.

See you next week.