Round 19: Home Stretch Preview

With roughly 3 quarters of the minor premiership now past, this week’s Tuesday Roast takes a look at how the remaining quarter (and beyond) of the season might turn out for each of the 16 teams.

Melbourne: currently on 32 points (+199 points difference).

Still to play: Brisbane (h), Parramatta (a), Penrith (h), Gold Coast (a), St George Illawarra (h), Manly (a), Sydney Roosters (a)

Predicted finish: 42 points — equal 1st

Incredibly, Melbourne finds themselves on top of the ladder after 19 rounds despite having to get rid of a host of players to satisfy NRL salary cap regulations. Granted some of these losses benefited the team considerably (Ryan Hoffman), but any team that can make Adam Woolnough, Jaiman Lowe or Maurice ‘Bobby’ Blair into important parts of a premiership-contending line-up deserves high praise.

Over the remainder of the season, Melbourne has a middle-of-the-road draw in terms of difficulty. They have to play three of their fellow top-five teams, but two of these matches are at home. They also have three lowly teams to come. A top-2 spot seems almost certain.

Manly: currently on 30 points (+155 points)

Still to play: Penrith (a), Wests Tigers (h – Gosford), Sydney Roosters (h), Parramatta (a), Canterbury (h), Melbourne (h), Brisbane (a)

Predicted finish: 42 points — equal 1st

With Melbourne and Manly dominating, it feels like 2007 and 2008 once again. Some say it feels like 2007 and 2008 in the world economy, but that’s a discussion for another time. Manly’s return to the upper echelon of the ladder is almost as surprising as Melbourne’s. Their much-vaunted physical edge over most teams faded during 2010 and with little potential apparent for improvement from new signings or emerging youngsters as well as their stars getting one year older, 2011 looked to be a year where sneaking into the top 8 would be welcomed.

Instead, their physical edge has returned. They have some of the most promising young talent in the NRL and, more importantly, their veterans are back to near their best. They should keep rolling on towards September, accumulating wins with not too much difficulty. A relatively good draw will help them to a probable top-2 finish.

St George Illawarra: currently on 29 points (+145)

Still to play: Canberra (a), South Sydney (h), Wests Tigers (a — SFS), Sydney Roosters (h), Melbourne (a), New Zealand (h), Penrith (h) — all home games at Wollongong

Predicted finish: 39 points — 3rd

Waiting for either of the top 2 to stumble will be St George Illawarra. They have emerged from a difficult State of Origin period with their line-up almost intact and are still comfortably in the top 4.

The Dragons are a somewhat more capable team, with more variety in attack and perhaps more resilience in defence, than in 2009 and 2010, it’s hard to shake the feeling that they are missing one or two more physically threatening forwards. This absence may only be apparent in a few games over the remainder of the season and the finals, but it might cost the Dragons back-to-back premierships. They were excellent on Monday night, but they can’t rely on almost monopolising possession and winning the penalty count comprehensively when the game is up for grabs every week.

Brisbane: currently on 28 points (+70)

Still to play: Melbourne (a), Cronulla (h), New Zealand (h), North Queensland (a), Newcastle (a), South Sydney (h), Manly (h)

Predicted finish: 38 points — 4th

After Greg Inglis turned Brisbane down to sign with LOL@$ouff$ for 2011, some expected Brisbane to miss the top 8 for a second consecutive year. Others, perhaps cynically, thought Brisbane would bounce back into the 8, but not as convincingly as in years past.

Instead, Brisbane could be a dark horse (hohoho) for this year’s premiership. Their group of emerging young talent, combined with some of their veterans playing at or near career best form (led, incredibly, by Darren Lockyer) has surprised many this season. They should cruise to a top-4 spot.

North Queensland: currently on 26 points (+64)

Still to play: Gold Coast (a), Penrith (h), Canterbury (a), Brisbane (h), South Sydney (a), Cronulla (h), New Zealand (a)

Predicted finish: 32 points — 5th

The injury to Feral Thurston might prevent yet another contender from having another very successful bounce-back season. However, his likely return in Round 23 and some astute off-season signings (who have contributed on and off the field) should see the Cowbores compile enough points while Thurston recovers to maintain their top-5 position.

The Cowbores’ forward pack has had an excellent year. Matt Scott is perhaps the best prop in the game, Dallas Johnson and Glenn Hall have provided much-needed starch and experience, while young tearaway Tariq Sims is absolutely nothing like his slightly retarded brother Ashton; hence Tariq is regarded as a future State of Origin player. Also, Little Matty Bowen™ has had his best year since 2007 after having successful knee ligament, care and attention span transplants. Any of the top 5 has a legitimate chance to win this premiership.

New Zealand: currently on 22 points (+31)

Still to play: South Sydney (a), Canberra (h), Brisbane (a), Newcastle (h), Penrith (a), St George Illawarra (a — Wollongong), North Queensland (h)

Predicted finish: 28 points — 8th

Despite being in the NRL since 1995, becoming fully accustomed to the 26-week minor premiership and having some wonderful veteran leaders over the years, the Warriors are still a team whose best and worst play is as far apart as any team in the NRL. They defeated Melbourne earlier this season, yet also lost meekly to the Roosters and Parramatta.

They have some excellent pieces, a nice mix of size, speed, youth and experience: James Maloney in the halves, Mannering and Luck the stalwarts in the back-row, the Inconsistent Twins of Mateo and Vatuvei plus a host of up-and-comers (Elijah Taylor, Kevin Locke and Shaun Johnson). But….it’s hard to see them stringing three or four good weeks together to win the premiership. With that said, they probably won’t mind finishing 8th and facing Melbourne in week 1 of the finals.

Wests Tigers: currently on 20 points (+8)

Still to play: Sydney Roosters (h — Leichhardt), Manly (a — BlueTongue Stadium), St George Illawarra (h — SFS), Penrith (a), Parramatta (h — SFS), Gold Coast (h — Campbelltown), Cronulla (a)

Predicted finish: 30 points — equal 6th

The Tigers FINALLY announced the signing of Adam Blair last week; this coincided with their best win for some time against the Cowbores on Saturday night. Can that win (and some belated certainty about the playing roster for 2012) be the catalyst for a late-season run? Possibly, but if they do make the finals, it will need wins over some high-placed or bogey teams (or both). With that said, these challenges are probably necessary so as to prevent laziness and complacency and promote some consistent, high-quality play.

Penrith: currently on 20 points (-4)

Still to play: Manly (h), North Queensland (a), Melbourne (a), Wests Tigers (h), New Zealand (h), Canberra (a), St George Illawarra (a — Wollongong)

Predicted finish: 24 points — equal 10th

Penrith has been a nice story in recent months. After a slow start, Penrith has rebounded and shrugged off a coaching change — with another coaching change to come — to play some very good rugby league over the last few months. However, their run home is the most difficult in the NRL, with only one game not against a team in the top 8 (at Canberra: a possibly difficult game as well). It will take sustained consistency and effort for Penrith to threaten a top-8 run from here: qualities not normally associated with a team in flux like the Panthers.

Newcastle: currently on 20 points (-21)

Still to play: Cronulla (a), Gold Coast (h), Canberra (h), New Zealand (a), Brisbane (h), Canterbury (a), South Sydney (h)

Predicted finish: 30 points — equal 6th

It has been easy to watch Newcastle in their last two games and dismiss them as finals contenders. However, when their friendly remaining draw is examined — which includes 5 home games and 5 games against teams currently outside the top 8 — their task of playing in September is suddenly much easier. With that said, continued loss of players to injury will hurt their chances, but a top-8 appearance would be quite an accomplishment for Newcastle, even if they stand little chance of progressing.

Cronulla: currently on 18 points (-43)

Still to play: Newcastle (h), Brisbane (a), Gold Coast (h), Canterbury (h), Sydney Roosters (a), North Queensland (a), Wests Tigers (h)

Predicted finish: 22 points — 12th

Cronulla’s four-game winning streak before Monday night planted the seed of thought in some minds that the Sharks might be a chance of playing in September. This seed was promptly crushed by the Dragons and their relentless first-half play on Monday, but while Paul Gallen might disagree, season 2011 can be a stepping stone for Cronulla even if they miss the top-8. Some more good signings and continued development and depth in key positions should see Cronulla a much better chance of playing finals in 2012.

South Sydney: currently on 18 points (-62)

Still to play: New Zealand (h), St George Illawarra (a — Wollongong), Parramatta (h), Canberra (a), North Queensland (h), Brisbane (a), Newcastle (a)

Predicted finish: 26 points — 9th (again)

Now we move on to the disappointments for 2011. Well….perhaps Souths deserve an exemption from such a harsh branding. Their injury toll has again been significant, while John Sutton and Rhys Wesser (for whom “the body’s good, except for a few bad limbs”) have remained injury-free: no team deserves such a considerable handicap.

With all that in mind, Souths probably still has a good chance of sneaking into the 8 this season. Their remaining draw has a number of games against nearby opposition, with the injury toll slowing easing. However, the greater likelihood is that Round 26 will once again end Souths’ season, as it has ever since their last premiership in 1655.

Canterbury: currently on 18 points (-65)

Still to play: Parramatta (h), Sydney Roosters (a), North Queensland (h), Cronulla (a), Manly (a), Newcastle (h), Canberra (h)

Predicted finish: 24 points — equal 10th

What started in the mid 2000s as a departure from their long-trusted model of player development was completed last week (when Kevin Moore was qu-ushed (quit + pushed) from the head coaching position): the family club is no more. A top-8 appearance looks unlikely, even allowing for a sacked coach bounce-back in the next few weeks. With that said, a relatively easy draw should see them pick up a few wins to end the season on a more promising note.

Parramatta: currently on 15 points (-92)

Still to play: Canterbury (a), Melbourne (h), South Sydney (a), Manly (h), Wests Tigers (a — SFS), Sydney Roosters (a), Gold Coast (a)

Predicted finish: 19 points — 13th

Amazingly, the Eels could finish below 20 points this season but coach Stephen Kearney could be a strong contender for Coach of the Year. There have been some ugly moments and they need to learn how to close out games, but Kearney has done much of the hard work to set this club back on the long road towards premiership success. The laziness/slackness/complacency of the Smith/Hagan/Anderson days are long gone. They probably won’t ruin many contending team’s chances (with the possible exception of the Tigers) but watch out for them in 2012.

Canberra: currently on 14 points (-102)

Still to play: St George Illawarra (h), New Zealand (a), Newcastle (a), South Sydney (h), Gold Coast (a), Penrith (h), Canterbury (a)

Predicted finish: 18 points — equal 15th

Canberra’s season has proceeded beautifully, with plans for the ultimate game well-advanced. Building on last week’s game, they are in a potentially good position…….to beat the Dragons. Unfortunately, Canberra only plays the Dragons once this season and being embarrassed in a handful of games so far this season might create the motivation for their annual Dragons upset, but it won’t lead to anything like a good season by conventional indicators.

Fortunately for Canberra coach David Furner, it seems the family club has moved to the nation’s capital, where David’s brother Don makes the decisions and one board member commented earlier this season “If it was between David and a coach who did nothing but pursue wins all the time, we’d have David every day of the week……David would have to lose 30 games in a row to get the sack”. What is it about ex-Canberra players now coaching and being surrounded by idiots??

Sydney Roosters: currently on 14 points (-104)

Still to play: Wests Tigers (a — Leichhardt), Canterbury (h), Manly (a), St George Illawarra (a — Wollongong), Cronulla (h), Parramatta (a), Melbourne (h)

Predicted finish: 18 points — equal 15th

How the mighty have fallen — but they also yo-yo. They are at risk of falling from the grand final to the wooden spoon in one season, but remember they also won the 2009 wooden spoon. Several other clubs do the yo-yo quite well across seasons, but none quite so well as the Roosters.

Mathematically, it’s possible they could make the finals, but realistically, they will miss the finals and possibly play a decent spoiler role for some finals contenders. The combination of their rarely-seen talent and the absence of pressure and expectations with the finals no longer possible could make them quite dangerous in the weeks to come.

Gold Coast: currently on 12 points (-167)

Still to play: North Queensland (h), Newcastle (a), Cronulla (a), Melbourne (h), Canberra (h), Wests Tigers (a — Campbelltown), Parramatta (h)

Predicted finish: 16 points — dead last

After coming within one game of a grand final in 2010, the Titans were always going to struggle in 2011 as their roster, especially in key positions, was getting too old. However, few thought they would fall so far so quickly.

Their best hope for the remainder of 2011 is to unearth some key-position/spine talent and to provide some excitement to the few remaining local supporters, for whom things can’t get much worse. Not only is their economy and real-estate market down the toilet, but the only ray of sunshine is a much cheaper seat in a crowd populated by expatriate Victards watching a sport where xenophobia and over-the-top nationalism is compulsory.

The Roast will have its second bye for the season next week; see you in two weeks.