Round 8: Stop The NRL, I Want To Get Off: A Closer Look At The New Schism Separating NRL Teams

When Rugby League hurtled towards professionalism in the early to mid 1990s, a major drawback to this for many supporters was the increase in one-sided contests between the haves and have-nots. As a result, the outcome of a number of games was rather easy to predict for many, so while the quality of play and average strength and athleticism improved, the general viewing experience for many supporters was somewhat soured.

Due to a number of factors — some at the behest of the NRL, others due to external bodies or world economic circumstances (e.g. the greater attractiveness of being paid in English pounds in the early to mid 2000s) — the NRL gave their competition a much higher degree of competitiveness and parity by the mid 2000s, so much so that they regularly boasted of having seven different competition winners in seven seasons.

However, in recent seasons, the stronger NRL teams, those with advantages either in playing talent, wealth, ability to attract and retain player talent or some combination of these factors, have fought back. A few years ago, using all 10 interchanges in a game was done almost all the time. Some teams would even use their 10 with 10 or more minutes of a game remaining. Now, using your allotted 10 interchanges happens far less and most teams are able to carry an emergency player amongst their four reserves (as opposed to using that fourth player for more necessary interchange).

Another factor that would often severely hinder teams was a congested schedule. Scenarios such as playing the Saturday after a Monday, or the Friday after a Sunday, or having three games in 11 days (Monday then Saturday then Friday) would more often than not make it very difficult to win. Knowing a team was about to encounter such a schedule would see that team be expected to struggle to win, or to put in such an effort to win that they would be spent for some weeks to come.

But in 2011, the short turnaround, even with travel, doesn’t seem to be much of an issue, even for those teams with injury problems. Granted, the cooler than usual start to the season also played a role here and it remains to be seen whether the better teams will be able to cope with a congested schedule during representative season, but so far, it has not been a major issue.

As a result of the improved ability of teams and players to adapt with the challenges of the modern game and scheduling, we’ve seen so far in 2011 a return to somewhat greater predictability of results. Some people struggling in tipping competitions may beg to differ, but there has been somewhat of a return to the ‘better’ team (on paper) getting the win more often than they had in the last few seasons.

HOWEVER, while the upper echelon NRL teams have (generally) started the season strongly, for those in the bottom half of the ladder, their struggles and mostly grim outlook for much of the season suggests that the outcome of the NRL’s Top 8 playoffs in September is almost, at this early stage, decided.

Here’s a closer look at the teams who will almost certainly not being part of this year’s Top 8:

Canberra: For a team who had lost 6 straight games and for a team who had declared Sunday’s match against the Wests Tigers to be a ‘must win’, Canberra’s performance in Round 8 was nothing short of disgraceful. They looked sluggish and uninterested, were lacking in intensity, seemingly had little to no attacking strategy and looked surprised when the Tigers carved them up as the Tigers have for the past five years or so.

Canberra’s ‘monster’ pack was again soundly defeated by a smaller, injury-hit and much harder working opposition pack, while Matt Awful again showed little to suggest he can be anything like the somewhat effective playmaker he once was. Some unkind people suggest Tigers’ halfback Robert Lui looks to be 43 years old, but it would not surprise if Awful is actually 43 years old. There was several times on Sunday where his wind-up to kick could have been timed with a calendar; not surprisingly, the Tigers pressured his kicking game easily.

However, Awful has little to work with, both on and off the field. Canberra’s full back Josh Dugan is a great athlete, with a long and elegant stride, but if he has anything between the ears, it is lonely, while his temperament is similar to that of an infant. Canberra has other talent in the outside backs, but they rarely saw the ball on Sunday. Winger Daniel Vidot has been mentioned as a possible Origin winger for Queensland, but Awful and others decided it was not really worth trying to exploit his match-up with Tigers midget winger Matt Utai.

This was part of the ‘strategy’ devised by Canberra coach David Furner; no wonder he has sacked himself from the Australian coaching team for this week’s Test. Also, it is no wonder Tim Sheens accepted Furner’s offer; Sheens is loyal to those who helped him in the past, but even he can see Furner’s shortcomings. Luckily for Furner, his boss at Canberra is his brother, so he should remain at the helm of the Green ‘Machine’ for some time to come.

In years gone by, if Canberra needed inspiration, Alan Tongue, the undersized lock forward cum dummy half would lead the way, but time and injuries have seen Tongue’s ability to inspire fall back to that of most other players. Canberra will get Terry Campese back from injury in the next month perhaps, but he is unlikely to be anywhere near his best this season.

It is somewhat ironic: after years where Canberra was always tipped as the favourite for wooden spoon contention (due to a seemingly weak roster) and followed up with regular Top 8 appearances, pre-season expectations of a successful year for Canberra in 2011 look set to lead to a wooden spoon.

Penrith: Much like the Roosters did in 2008, it looked as though Penrith over-achieved to some extent in 2010 and that 2011 would not be as successful a season for them. They probably won’t have as bad a season as the Roosters did in 2009, but they won’t be far off, especially if Matt Elliott is removed from the coaching job as soon as possible.

Teams rarely perform well when they are set to change coaches next season, but the incumbent isn’t immediately removed. Penrith players announced they would perform strongly for Elliott on Sunday in New Zealand, but couldn’t deliver on this promise, despite the Warriors being vulnerable after a massive effort in Melbourne on ANZAC Day.

Penrith at least look capable of providing nuisance value later in the season when some players return from injury; when motivated, they have points in them. But they look little to no chance of making the Top 8 in 2011.

Cronulla: Unlike the teams above, Cronulla can at least claim to have taken a step in the right direction in 2011. They have one of the better forward packs in the NRL and when their halves and backs don’t play poorly, they can trouble the NRL’s best.

Unfortunately, Cronulla lacks the financial clout of most other teams; hence, their player depth is shallow and their playing stocks are vulnerable to attack. After a bright start to the season, they have struggled of late. Injuries have meant inadequate players are now playing first grade and surely team morale has been hit by massive interest from other clubs for their highly regarded props Douglas and Snowden.

They will no doubt turn the corner and post some more impressive wins, but they would probably be happy with a 10th place finish, such is the club’s predicament. They started solidly on Friday night against Souths, but Souths’ star power proved too much in the end. Cronulla was not helped by feeling obliged to play a clearly injured Nathan Gardner.

Sydney Roosters: A harsh — but fair — way to describe the Roosters could be that they are a rich Cronulla. The Roosters share Cronulla’s relative lack of support and ability to follow up successful seasons with those of a vastly contrasting nature (and vice versa). Also, both clubs enjoyed a period spanning close to a decade between roughly the mid 90s and the mid 2000s where they were often perennial contenders.

After a very successful 2010, their 2011 season already looks done. It might be a bit harsh to say they overachieved last season, but their 2011 form is well down in most areas. Also, off-field issues are probably affecting the team more than supporters of the team or code will know.

Many expected the Roosters to consolidate on last year’s effort — Brian Smith-coached teams often build into years 2 and 3 of his tenure — but this looks highly unlikely to happen. However as long as the key pieces remain and Todd Carney can get back on the field, they should be ready to bounce back in 2012. They looked due to end their losing streak on Saturday night, but a freak late try by the Titans proved the difference between these two struggling teams.

Parramatta: Their excellent trial form and week 1 showing against the Warriors was a false dawn and some thrashings in recent weeks have provided the Eels with a truer indication of their standing in the NRL at present. New coach Stephen Kearney is implementing a Melbourne Storm-style of play but without Melbourne Storm-style pieces; not surprisingly, his efforts will take time to bear fruit.

Their honest effort (in most matches) and ability to bounce back from thrashings means they will probably post some solid wins, but Kearney will probably be happy if he can find some young outside backs and halves capable of giving him several years’ worth of strong play over the remainder of the season. Without Jarryd Hayne, the Eels scoring no points against the Dragons was not a big surprise.

Gold Coast: The Titans have a number of players who could fit into contending teams and perhaps even the missing piece to push a contending team towards a premiership victory. However, as they stand, the Titans are a little too old (with not much talented youth coming through) and missing a few important pieces to be a good chance of making the top 8 in 2011.

The Titans’ administration seems to know this, but their signings for next season and beyond do not really address areas of need. Most teams know the importance of a strong ‘spine’ i.e. the fullback, halves and dummy half. Gold Coast’s spine took a hit when Mat Rogers retired at the end of last season and will take another hit when indefatigable dummy half Nathan Friend moves to the Warriors next season.

Meanwhile, Scott Prince and Preston Campbell, while still very good, are nearing the end of their careers and Gold Coast’s major signings — Jamal Idris and Luke Douglas — while up-and-coming players, do not fill any of the ‘spine’ positions. The Titans might struggle for a few years to come.

Newcastle: The Knights started the season well but a significant injury toll means they will probably struggle to register enough wins over the remainder of the season. Much of their current team may also have to contend with the possibility of rejection by incoming super-coach Wayne Bennett. Apart from Kurt Gidley, Neville Costigan and Chris Houston, Bennett could choose not to re-sign or could sign new players to make much of the remainder of the playing staff be forced to take on lesser roles or find another club in 2012.

They would have done very well to push the Storm into back-to-back defeats on Saturday night, but the loss of Gidley with a shoulder injury killed their hopes in this game and probably for some time to come.

With the Dragons, Melbourne, Brisbane, North Queensland, Manly, Canterbury and the Wests Tigers more than likely assured of Top 8 spots, this leaves just two teams to fight out the last spot:

New Zealand: The Warriors’ slow start to the season has now given way to four wins from their last five games. Their playing depth is perhaps the best in the NRL and is probably too much; a number of injuries has provided certainty for those remaining and has coincided with improved play for most of the team. They don’t have the star power of many of the top 8 sides, but their overall talent level is strong — especially when they have the motivation to back it up.

They have been known to follow up excellent performances with poor ones, so their win over Penrith, while not spectacular, was important. Their ‘spine’ is not great, but they are a good chance of making the Top 8, especially with so many injuries to the forwards of….

South Sydney: The Rabbitohs may not play to their potential at all in 2011, but they have such talent, especially on their left edge, that glimpses of potential may be all they need to get them into September.

However, as happened during 2010, their excellent forward pack is being depleted by injuries. Despite having Ben Ross and Michael Crocker as regular members of their team this year, injuries to Burgess, Lowe, Geddes, Stuart and now Asotasi — some of these for extended periods — might mean Souths has to sign someone like Craig Stapleton again: an emergency prop from a lower league.

Like the Warriors, Souths’ spine is under question. Coach John Lang finally pushed veteran Rhys Wesser out of the team, but his young replacement needs time to get used to first grade. Much-maligned halves Sutton and Sandow have improved over the season to date, but their performance may decline again once they sign new contracts.

Ultimately though, they have Greg Inglis and if he so desires, he can probably take Souths into the Top 8 all by himself.

Hopefully the NRL season can throw up some variety and unpredictability, but it does look like much of the Top 8 is settled. Feel free to refer this back to me in 4 months if I am wildly wrong!

See you next week.