After perhaps the craziest first half of the season since 1995, it is probably a good time to take stock and sum up how each team has fared thus far.
St George Illawarra (current position: 1st): in contrast to most other teams and the game itself, the Dragons have delivered another stellar first-half of the season, with their ongoing consistency placing them safely at the top of the table. And given they are the only team yet to have a bye, this makes their effort even more worthy of praise. They have overcome the loss of Wendell Sailor, Nathan Fien and Jeremy Smith for most of the season so far as well as a number of other injuries to continue to produce their highly disciplined but very productive standard of play. They had a tougher than expected challenge on Sunday in Auckland, where the locals were motivated by their thrashing last time out and always play better in the wet, but the Dragons held their nerve.
Of course, the major challenge for them is to win in September, but they should cruise to a top-2 spot. Score: A+
Penrith (2nd): Penrith have continued on from their promising form seen for much of 2009, but some significant obstacles are ahead. Their draw has been on the kind side, they will have to produce without Petero Civoniceva for the next few weeks or so and they risk becoming over-reliant on their thus-far quite productive attacking kicking game. Teams are unlikely to hand them victories like Newcastle did on Saturday night (and even with Newcastle's charity, they struggled to put the Knights away).
With that said, however, surely they can't fade as badly as they did in late 2009; a finals appearance looks a certainty. Their combination of size and speed makes them a dark horse, but it's still difficult to tell just how dark they might be. Score: B
South Sydney (eq 3rd): After a slow start, Souths are rolling fairly nicely at the moment. They have struggled to puts wins together (apart from their initial recovery and last night's overwhelming of the Cowbores) but have shown strong signs of promise, especially if they can find some consistency. This has been the issue for Souths for some time, but you'd have to say progress is being made here.
You can never to be too sure with Souths, and their supporters have seen many a forecast of Souths' resurgence end in tears, but playing in September looks quite likely. Their depth (especially up front) may become an issue, but their size and skill should be too good to keep them out of the finals. Score: B-
Manly (eq 3rd): A difficult one to pick: they started the season very strongly, especially once Hasler put Hodkinson into the halves and Lyon in the centres. But a combination of some injuries, the heavy Brookvale Oval surface, representative honours for numerous players, a difficult schedule and a number of key players getting a significant number of miles on the clock have taken their toll on Manly over the last month or so. They could have jumped to a strong lead on Sunday against Brisbane, but they appeared unable to lift their game when Brisbane showed resistance. Ultimately, it was a rather meek defeat.
You'd imagine things should improve for Manly, but perhaps not before they get worse. Depth is an issue (especially given their extended time at/near the top due to subsequent salary-cap-related player loss) and their young halves have struggled (not surprisingly) when the forwards aren't dominant. Their experience means they are a great chance to win the comp....but getting there (and not using too much energy in doing so) could be the toughest part. Score: B
Wests Tigers (eq 3rd): How do you spell inconsistency? Apparently the letters WESTIG and R are in there somewhere. Surely this is the most inconsistent team in the NRL. Or to put it another way, they can look brilliant and shocking....and back to brilliant in less than a month. The Tigers board and Tim Sheens must thank whoever their deity is multiple times each day they have a consistent, hard-working forward in Gareth Ellis, otherwise their problems would be far worse. But even with him, this season could end up anywhere. Injuries may end up a factor, but their recent form minus a number of good players suggests it doesn't have to be.
Put simply, this team could finish anywhere: another ninth, another premiership or an honorable fifth, anything is possible. Score: C+
Gold Coast (eq 3rd): In last year's mid-season outlook, the Tuesday Roast picked the Titans to miss the finals. Great call there. But it does appear to be a new Titans in 2010, they do not seem so focused on playing at/near their best on a regular basis. They seem to have learnt to pick their moments (like the premiership winners of the last 5 years or so have). Wins against Melbourne (pre-crisis), Manly (at Brookvale), Penrith (just 5 days after beating Manly) and Souths suggest they will be hard to beat in September, but losses to the Cowbores, Roosters and Raiders mean they may enter September in the lower half of the 8.
A somewhat patchy start to the season, but if they can continue to pick their moments, their relative lack of Origin workload could see them make a strong run at the premiership. Score: B+
Brisbane (eq 7th): An amazing first half for them. At times, they were the worst team in the NRL but since Round 9, they have looked....awesome at times. Sam Thaiday has been brilliant leading the forwards, the team's improvement has made things easier for the still-very-good Darren Lockyer, Israel Folau's embarrassment of Greg Inglis in Round 9 was one of the highlights of the season so far, while several young Broncos (Hoffman, Gillett etc.) are emerging quickly.
Their great run will likely end soon, but it's hard to see them not making the quarter finals somewhere, if only because of the importance to the NRL and Channel 9 of a strong Broncos. Another one for the NRL Dark Horse handicap. Score: C
Parramatta (eq 7th): Play it again, Sam (or, in this case, Nathan): inconsistent team, some excellent wins, some astounding losses, a dark horse. The fear for Parramatta supporters (and those who love the entertaining game Parramatta play when they're at their best) is that the lazy Eels will think a run to the grand final from 8th is nothing too difficult and not lift their game consistently until August.
Perhaps this might work: they have a 3-1 win-loss record as outsiders with the bookies this season, so who am I to tell them how to run their season? Score: B-
Sydney Roosters (eq 7th): The Roosters have struggled after a very good start in the early-season heat. While any Brian Smith-coached team is a threat to knock off highly fancied opposition (their win against the Gold Coast was impressive), their general level of play and lack of consistency will probably see them fall short of the finals in 2010. Score: C-
Canberra (eq 7th): A bizarre Canberra season so far, led by their quite good record away from home, but very poor play in Canberra. They have won just 2 out of 5 at home, despite being in winning positions in 4 of these games. But they were excellent in winning at Parramatta and at Wollongong.
By this logic, their home-dominated remainder of schedule should see them finish near last, but this should turn around soon. Hard to see them making the 8 though, with Alan Tongue set to miss much of the season, with the petulant Terry Campese in a position of on-field leadership and rumours continuing to circulate about Josh Dugan and his dissatisfaction in Canberra. Score: D+
New Zealand (11th): To be fair, the Warriors have looked better than they did in 2009, although this has not been hard. Still, they have looked ok at times despite some key injuries (Vatuvei, Price, Rapira, Seymour). They will always be a threat to win on their day (which usually involves rain in Auckland) but the loss of Brent Tate is another nail in their 2010 coffin. Score: D
Newcastle (12th): Possibly the most difficult team to support this season. With much of the same team which was in the upper part of the table last season, the Knights have descended into a highly inconsistent rabble. But then they perform brilliantly (as they did against the Roosters recently) and you wonder why they're not winning far more often.
The Knights are probably best personified by Kurt Gidley: capable of brilliance, not sure what position they're playing and often wondering if they should play a different sport. Score: D-
Cronulla (13th): Cronulla is a weird team, in that they have a number of big names, they have looked atrocious for long periods of the season, but have put together two very strong performances in recent weeks (against Parramatta and the Roosters). Granted, these opponents were backing up soon after tough games, but Cronulla should be able to produce this form more often.
Much like the US economy, Cronulla went off a cliff late in 2008, had a horror 2009 and have exhibited some 'green shoots' in 2010. Much like the US economy, Cronulla is probably going to be in financial poo for a very long time to come Score: E+
Canterbury (eq 14th): On to the major disappointments for 2010. Well, in Canterbury's case, they probably overachieved in 2009, but they probably shouldn't be equal last. They did lose a few important players from last season and have had a few injuries, but the greater culprit of their 2010 failures thus far has probably been Kimmorley, Ryan and Patten all showing their age much more so than last year.
You'd have to imagine they'll do better in the second half of the season, but a fairly good indicator since 2005 of whether a Bulldogs season is going to be rubbish is hard-working, loyal but far too small forward Brad Morrin. He played his first game in 2010 last week. Score E-
North Queensland (eq 14th): While it is true that Feral Thurston's presence on your team means you're always a chance, the Cowbores are carrying more dead wood than a Tasmanian logging truck. And that's with Willie Mason having a fairly good season so far. The likes of Webb, O'Donnell, Payne, Rovelli, Bani, Graham and Ty Williams - most of whom are regular first graders - means the Cowbores are giving most teams a significant leg-up.
Things aren't all bad with some promising youngsters coming through (Tamou, Morgan, Thompson and Tupou) and some reliable older players (Scott and Bowen), but when Feral Thurston takes up 65% of your salary cap, this doesn't leave much room for new talent. Score: F-
Melbourne (16th): Enough has been said on Melbourne administration's offences (crimes?), but surely every game of theirs now is required viewing. Frustrated players, creative players playing without the constraint of Bellamy's discipline, some very good young players getting a chance, souped-up opposition crowds, uncertain opposition players, super-motivated opposition players and perhaps later in the season (when some teams join Melbourne in the 2010 Losers' Lounge) the chance of some thuggish play or some huge fights. There's every chance we'll never see anything like this again (not a team caught cheating the cap, but a team whose season is made irrelevant by punishment) so it's probably investing in some popcorn, getting comfy and watching some great action, one way or the other. Score: n/a.
See you next week.
Tuesday, 8 June 2010
Round 13: A Mid-Season Report Card
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