Instead of the typical dry and boring discussion about last weekend’s events in Rugby League, this week’s Tuesday Roast will instead play the role of Easter long weekend news reporter with a look at the best of this year’s Easter Show Showbags.
The traditional trip to the Easter Show can often end in traditional pain for Mum and Dad’s bank balance! But this needn’t be the case. There are a number of showbags on offer this year which are all the rage for the kids but won’t require the parents to take out a second mortgage!
One of the coolest showbags is the Wests Tigers bag. This perennial favourite of the kids and aging, cynical former Roosters and NSW Origin coaches alike dazzles the eyes and captivates the mind. Better yet, for the mums who don’t like their kids’ (or husbands’!) rugby league interest seemingly going for 10 months a year, this bag rarely if ever functions after the end of August.
But beware though, the toys in this bag only function under perfect conditions or if they haven’t functioned in quite a while. They can be quite temperamental. Still, they’re great value (especially if used on a Sunday afternoon): a solid B- for the Wests Tigers bag.
The Tigers bounced back remarkably well on Friday night against Parramatta. It was an excellent mix of their typical flashy attack, domination of possession, robust defence against a team who traditionally dominates them just five days after being roasted by the Roosters two Sundays ago. With that said though, Parramatta disappointed again. They traditionally start slowly, but a year and a half of the more intense Daniel Anderson coaching them has failed to eliminate this annoying (for their supporters) characteristic. They are in need a match where they are expected to struggle and lose, so as to jump-start their motivation. Cronulla is exactly not what they need, it could be an interesting game in the Shire on Saturday afternoon.
While many of the kids love the Tigers bag, it doesn’t have the tradition and appeal to kids of all ages like the Dragons bag does. Despite a takeover of Illawarra bag in 1999, this bag continues to enjoy the mass appeal it gained in the 1950s and 1960s. For most of the last few decades, it had some of the better, more highly regarded toys in all the bags…but their reliability under pressure proved to be insufficient. Their recent re-branding as a more low-budget bag but with a greater emphasis on reliability and consistency didn’t quite pay off last year, but early previews of this year’s bag promise greater progress towards this goal. This could be one of the bags of 2010: an A- for the Dragons bag.
Round 3 saw another suffocating win for the Dragons. The victim this time was the Cowbores, who had a fairly good excuse for their sleep-inducing play. The Dragons again jumped to an early lead, again relied heavily on their left side for attack and again failed to let their opponent anywhere near a comeback. The two best teams so far will play tomorrow afternoon in Melbourne, and while these very efficient teams could produce a low-scoring, disciplined affair, it will almost certainly be the best-played game of the season to date.
Another popular bag this year will be the Penrith Panthers bag. While often a bag of questionable quality, it often seems to have a certain likeable-ness to it, which means it enjoys solid levels of support in Sydney’s west year in and year out. This year’s edition has some highly sought-after toys: everyone wants a Civoniceva even though it’s been around for years, while local products Lewis and Waterhouse are in their peak years. However, this year’s edition is also quite fragile; Waterhouse and the very temperamental Pritchard can give way at any time, while their instructions seem to be written in Swahili: no one quite knows how they work. Success seems possible for the Panthers, but probably not: a C+ for them.
Penrith was not far away from a win on Saturday night and they had their chances to really threaten an unusually error-prone opposition, but in the end, it was another just-enough win for Melbourne. Penrith was better than last week (although that wasn’t hard), but they were generally sloppy and was a touch lucky to have a chance to tie the game in the dying minutes. Melbourne was somewhat off the pace, but welcomed back Cooper Cronk from injury. His impact was immediate and will be vital if they hope to defeat the Dragons this week.
The Manly Sea Eagles bag has long been one which polarises opinion across Sydney, but is regularly amongst the highest-selling bags. This year’s bag is without some of the more successful items of recent years and, at first glance, appears to be more one-dimensional with an emphasis on strength and durability. However, the latest gossip is some items within the bag have surprise elements of skill, especially the previously lampooned Tony Williams. Exposure to alcohol is not advised for the contents of this bag, but that is a risk with all bags to be fair. Manly is likely to perform strongly again this year: a B for the northerners.
(Apologies to those after the Newcastle Knights bag. This is perhaps the most popular bag in some years, but its proprietors are under investigation by NSW Police and it has hence been withdrawn from sale at this year’s Show).
For the third straight week, Manly jumped to a big lead but they would not allow a third straight comeback. Their 12-minute, 3-try period of monopolising possession after Jarrod Mullen’s conservative kick for the sideline was the platform for a big Manly win.
Although it enjoyed a very successful period in the late 1980s and early to mid 1990s based on the development of high-class local produce, the Canberra Raiders bag only enjoys a relatively small amount of support each year. With that said though, this support is quite loyal and they can sometimes be rewarded with great entertainment. However, this entertainment is highly unlikely to occur anywhere except at your own home, especially with the consistent loss of expertise behind the bag being lost to other brands in recent years. Probably better value elsewhere: a D+ rating here.
Canberra lost another one away from home on Saturday night, although they would have done very well to come close to the Gold Coast. They were asked by the draw-makers to back up just 5 days after Monday night, a difficult task in the warm weeks of the early season. Also, any game at Robina for visiting teams figures to be difficult, even though the Titans have been slow starters this year. The loss of Scott Prince for a while could slow the Titans down, but, a bit like Parramatta, a challenge may spur them on to greater heights.
The New Zealand Warriors bag often enjoys very strong levels of support from expatriate Kiwis and those who enjoyed excitement and entertainment alike. This can be a strange bag, often disappointing markedly when it is expected to produce and capable of brilliance when these expectations are removed; alternatively, a sunny Sunday afternoon can see high entertainment levels no matter the expectation or situation. In recent years, the Kiwi/Polynesian influence has been usurped by expertise from Queensland, yet this has largely failed to change the unusual character of this bag. A fairly good bag, but probably only if you don’t expect much: B- here.
In hindsight, the Warriors probably would have defeated Brisbane even if they hadn’t lost Folau and Kemp to injury, although the final margin probably would have been much closer. In any event, the Warriors were in a buoyant mood on Sunday and attacked the struggling Broncos from anywhere on the field. As is their wont, the Warriors gained in confidence as the passes stuck and the points accumulated. The Warriors suffered to injury too, but luckily they were in a much better position than Brisbane to cope with them. Without Folau and Corey Parker, Brisbane could struggle mightily in the weeks to come.
Another traditional Sydney bag is the Canterbury Bankstown Bulldogs bag. Much success in the past three decades means this bag enjoys perhaps the highest level of support in Sydney, but a major re-branding was undertaken last year after the bag became too comfortable with past success and lost its way badly. It is now once again “The Family Bag” and offers some of the higher quality, entertaining, but most of all wholesome showbag items. If you can prove your surname is Moore, you’re related to a Moore or you are Catholic, you receive 50% off and enter the very exclusive draw for future jobs (including first grade coach) in the Bulldogs showbag organisation. A perennial favourite: A- for the Bulldogs bag.
To paraphrase Mark Twain, rumours of the Bulldogs demise were greatly exaggerated. They produced a far better performance, which coincided with a very flat Roosters effort. The heat of the last two Sundays may have played a role here, but a more important factor was complacency. Confirming this was the fact that the Roosters started the second half quite strongly. The Roosters briefly threatened a huge comeback, but once this threat was allayed, the Bulldogs cruised to a big win.
Last – and least – comes the cheapest showbag, but sadly, the falling price hasn’t encouraged any greater support: the Cronulla bag. This bag enjoys fairly strong loyal support from the Sutherland Shire, but its lack of success, penchant for failing in pressure situations and the Shire’s insularity from the rest of Sydney has meant there is little support for it elsewhere. The long-running promise of a major financial infusion for this struggling institution remains just that at this stage; this has meant costs have been cut and hence the 2010 bag comes in that crappy plastic which pretty much falls apart when you touch it. Steer clear from this endangered species unless you enjoy self-torture: F for the Sharks.
The early signs were somewhat promising for Cronulla as they scored first and appeared to be more enthusiastic than the favoured and nervous Rabbitohs. But once Souths easily crossed the line several times, the score-line blew out and the game was over. There was little of note in Souths’ performance – apart from their repeated aerial attacks on Cronulla’s vulnerable fullback Albert Kelly. In the end, Souths would have been happy to get a comprehensive win but the game was awful for the neutral.
On that note, enjoy your Easter weekend and good tipping.
Tuesday, 30 March 2010
Round 3: Show Us Ya Bags!
Tuesday, 23 March 2010
Round 2: An Irishman Walks Into An NRL Game And Says…
Round 2 of any given NRL season has long been recognised (by experts such as Phil Gould) as a round where unusual results can take place. Those teams which won well in Round 1 can find it difficult to replicate their form due to a lack of match fitness. On the other hand, those who lost heavily in Round 1 can often bounce back well: the motivation of avoiding zero points after 2 rounds can be surprisingly strong.
To celebrate the often unusual results in Round 2, this week’s match descriptions will come from a country and a culture which has provided the world with often unusual humour (as well as the best opportunity this year — before Origin — to get drunk on a Wednesday via St Patrick’s Day).
(Note: the incredibly dumb efforts of Canberra and Penrith in Round 2 probably qualify as more adequate catalysts for this week’s Roast than the oft-stereotyped Irish. Not only did they serve up some of the most stupid play seen in the NRL in decades, but they both wore jerseys which were very close to shamrock green! Unfortunately there is no native form of poetry to these regions)
St George Illawarra v. Bulldogs
These rivals’ games are often intense
But the ’Dogs looked weak without Ennis
The Dragons went left
And came up with success
This one was over after 20 minutes
It seems somewhat inappropriate to start a St. Patrick’s Day-related Roast with two teams whose history and/or emblem is so heavily in the culture of the English, but it also seems inappropriate that this was deemed the best game of the round by Channel 9 and instead we received another Dragons’ master class in getting to a lead and shutting the game down.
Both teams were without their hookers in this game, but the Dragons’ structure meant that even though they were forced to replace the energetic and speedy Nathan Fien with the geriatric Luke Priddis, their performance was once again brilliant. Their tendency to push most of their attack to their left hand side was far from a surprise, but it coincided with the Bulldogs’ weakest side defensively. Brett Morris finished with 3 tries, but the praise must go to the likes of Soward, Young and Prior for their excellent work in exploiting the Bulldogs’ weaknesses.
Souths v. Gold Coast
The much-hyped Souths were on show
And it looked like another tale of woe
But then a comeback and lead
They seemed certain to succeed
But another loss – bloody Sandow!
To be fair to Souths’ much-maligned half-back, the blame for this very-tough loss can’t be exclusively pinned on his shoulders. His late sin-binning was bizarre to say the least, but proved quite crucial in turning the game back towards the Titans.
But Sandow can be blamed for his role in Souths not having secured the win well before the 80th minute. Souths came back from 16-6 down to take a two-point lead and the struggling, tiring Titans appeared to have no way of coming back game bar for the referees’ late assistance.
Instead, a second straight Souths’ loss was music to the media’s ears (especially with the sight of most of Souths’ big-name forwards on the bench at the same time). Not only did they fan the flames of Souths supporters’ discontent, but it allows them to source quotes from lunatic ex-Souths players such as Craig Coleman (which in themselves can make even the most sane supporter look up the number of the nearest mental facility).
New Zealand v. Cronulla
For the Warriors, this looked easy
But simple ones often make them queasy
The Sharks bounced back
But the Warriors led by their pack
Won well; they can sometimes be a tease-y
Much has been made of the Warriors’ inability to finish off wins from strong positions as well as their inability to win in games where they’re expected to win well. Both of these propositions were tested on Saturday night, as the Warriors jumped out to a 16-nil lead, but the Sharks recovered to cut the lead to just 2 early in the second half.
This one certainly had the ingredients for another Warriors disappointment. Cronulla is probably underrated by many; a number of their players would be welcome by most, if not all, NRL teams, and they gave another gallant, if error-riddled, display here. But the Warriors held firm after Cronulla’s comeback (and despite the late withdrawal of their halfback Brett Seymour). They had the better of possession, made less errors and pressured Cronulla’s defence into conceding two tries which gave the Warriors the win.
On the whole, they looked impressive and will probably do so at other times, especially with a few wins or near-wins against some front-runners. In general though, keep in mind these exemplary efforts are largely an illusion. Potential is a dirty word for those who support the Warriors.
Newcastle v. Melbourne
Newcastle often does well against the Storm
And started with some excellent form
But the Storm held firm
Although the Knights made them squirm
Melbourne’s close win is becoming the norm
It was an intriguing match at Newcastle on Saturday night. The home team, still motivated to show the drug scandal will not affect them, started very strongly against a very good opponent but one they’ve played as well as anyone in the NRL over the last two seasons. While Melbourne is still missing a number of first-choice players, their resilience and ability to incorporate new players meant they lost little due to the forced changes, but the strong start by the Knights shocked them somewhat.
Melbourne came back into the game from here, chopping Newcastle’s lead to just two points by half-time with two well-worked tries, but Newcastle returned stronger in the second half, aided by some uncharacteristically poor Melbourne play. Newcastle, however, could not breach the still-resolute Melbourne defence and, as is often the case, the team which successfully repels waves of opposition attack scores themselves soon after.
But Newcastle would have been quite frustrated by what became the match-winning try for Melbourne, as the Storm didn’t have to work the ball downfield at all; the try came about by a typically heady Brett Finch break past a player called offside who played the role of matador and deceived (for just long enough) an eager team-mate. A late penalty goal was the icing on the cake for Melbourne, who is quietly accumulating points in their nomadic start to the season. Melbourne v. the Dragons in a few weeks should be a cracker.
North Queensland v. Penrith
The Cowbores again started slow
Penrith looked into the flow
But the Cowbores had fight
And went down Penrith’s right
Which was manned by Larry, Curly and Moe
This was perhaps the most difficult match of the round to tip. Both teams looked brilliant and shocking in the same game last week. The Cowbores probably deserved some sort of favouritism at home, but Penrith had played them well in recent years, with success coming in Townsville too.
It appeared as though more success would follow here, as Penrith jumped to leads of 14-2 and then 20-8. However, the Cowbores came back and ended up winning this one easily as Penrith capitulated any time the Cowbores threw the ball to their left. While Michael Jennings and Michael Gordon are accomplished, quite experienced players — or, at least, were once thought to be — their combination on Penrith’s right-side defence yielded disastrous results.
Each of the Cowbores’ four tries came down Penrith’s right and involved nothing resembling intricate strategy. Two of these tries were nothing short of embarrassing. The first of these saw Cowbores’ second rower Scott Bolton at dummy-half near Penrith’s line. As he picked up the ball, Gordon anticipated a pass to Feral Thurston and sprinted in that direction, providing Bolton with a saloon passage to the try-line.
The Cowbores’ final try saw Feral throw the ball wide to mediocre winger Michael Bani. Bani was in open space and approached Penrith full-back Lachlan Coote, their star back-rower Luke Lewis and Gordon; Bani appeared certain to be tackled. But when Bani merely changed direction — not even a sidestep! — Gordon, Coote and Lewis were befuddled and Bani strolled over for an easy try. Lewis subsequently left the field due to concussion; I understand Luke, I would have come up with a similar excuse if I was embarrassed like that.
Bani is barely of first-grade standard, but he carried on like a pork chop after his try. However, given the Penrith players’ ineptitude, he might as well as have knocked their heads together then spun around on the ground (“Whoop-whoop-whoop-whoop-whoop!”).
Parramatta v. Manly
Manly started hot again
Getting a 20-point lead at Parra Stadium
Then Parra got on the train
Driven by Hayne
And helped by the refs in need of OPSM
What appeared to be a devastating defeat for Manly the previous Monday night, which saw them lose Brett Stewart and increasingly important prop George Rose, saw most expect Parramatta to win and win well on Sunday. Further hindering Manly’s cause was they had just 6 days to prepare for this game as opposed to 9 for the Eels.
However, Parramatta is traditionally a slow-starting team. Throw in the heavy expectations many have for them in 2010 (and even more so in this game) and it was not that surprising Manly started so strongly, jumping to a 20-nil lead early in the second half.
But as they did on Monday night, they failed to put their opposition away, and when Parramatta got some ball, they came back into the game, led initially by Moi Moi then by Hayne and his incredible 60 metre run.
Much has been made of the forward pass which cut Manly’s lead to just 2 points, but there was numerous errors by the referees on this day, including one which should made the forward pass null-and-void (Robson was in front of Hayne prior to Hayne’s chip-kick which was eventually passed to Robson).
Ultimately, Manly is playing at quite a high level, but not quite high enough to finish off games. The sight-hampered referees cannot be blamed for this.
Sydney Roosters v. Wests Tigers
On Sunday in the searing sun
The Tigers had some early fun
Until the Roosters got cluckin’;
On this day in the oven
It was the Tigers who were well done
As they did on the previous Monday night, the Tigers started strongly, this time jumping to a greater lead (12-0). But as the game went on, it became apparent they expended a lot of effort on the previous Monday night and they were vulnerable.
Meanwhile, for the Roosters, it was (in a way) more of the same as the previous Sunday. In their first game, they withstood the early onslaught from the large and physical Rabbitohs, while this time, they withstood the early onslaught from the more elusive Tigers. In both games, the oppositions had little in reserve after the early going, while the Roosters strengthened as both games went on.
In a weekend of vulnerable edge defences, the Tigers’ right side (and particularly Blake Ayshford) was punished in this game. Who knew Phil Graham could be a very good centre after only ever playing on the wing? No Tigers supporters were surprised that the experienced Daniel Fitzhenry was unable to provide any support to his under siege team-mate. The oven-like conditions would have been an appropriate time to stick a fork in Fitzhenry; he’s well and truly done.
The Tigers again finished with a heap of tries, but it was not nearly enough. A repeat performance of this nature could well see Parramatta played right back into form and off their slow start on Friday night.
Canberra v. Brisbane
At home and on Monday night
Canberra can give anyone a fright
But Brisbane hung tough
And Canberra was dumb
But the Raiders held on while playing shite
It was hardly a surprise Canberra started strongly (a 12-0 lead). At their best, they are a very capable team, with a more than willing forward pack and some amazing young talent.
But from the 10 minute mark until almost the very end of this game, Brisbane had the better of play, dominating for long periods. How they only cut 8 points of Canberra’s early lead during this time is baffling. Canberra almost always looked to make the exciting play and usually dropped the ball (although they can be partly excused for this by Brisbane’s so-so defence and that exciting play looked like paying off more often than not), while Brisbane had a lot of attacking possession and took poor last-tackle options or made errors.
It was in the second half though when Brisbane really dominated. Once they got on the scoreboard via Folau, Canberra was in trouble. But making Canberra’s situation worse was their unforced error count, their penchant for trying the exciting play (still) and Terry Campese’s baffling inability to settle his team down (with a long kick dribbling across the sideline and a slow walk to a scrum). Or, on those rare occasions they got near Brisbane’s line, for a kick into Brisbane’s in-goal area for the possibility of a repeat set.
Canberra was CRYING OUT for some assistance in the second half, yet Campese and his halfback this week (McCrone) both scored epic fails for their tiring team-mates. When Alan Tongue forced what appeared to be a pivotal and inspiring turnover with about 10 minutes to go, this excellent work was immediately erased by a brainless pass from substitute hooker Travis Waddell, which floated softly into the hands of Brisbane forward Sam Thaiday. Campese and McCrone had to be thankful for Waddell’s presence; from the moment he stepped on to the field late in the first half, his contribution was 100 times worse than awful.
In the end, the effort Brisbane needed to overhaul Canberra’s lead became too much and Canberra held on for the ill-deserved win.
See you next week.
Tuesday, 16 March 2010
Round 1: Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack
The combination of the (permanently?) wounded beast that is international cricket (and its especially lacklustre summer), the unusually high quality of rugby league’s off-season matches and, of course, the amazing success of the NRL in 2009 pushed expectations for the new season to a level probably not seen since the mid 1990s.
As is always the case, the start of a new season reminds us that high expectations are somewhat unreasonable. Rugby League is a game built on the success of combinations as well as superior levels of physical fitness; despite months of preparation off the field, performing at or near the peak in these two areas only comes about with extended time in match situations.
However, on the whole, round one of the new season was quite entertaining, more so than many recent season starts. This was especially due to in-game momentum shifts having a greater-than-usual effect (due to the lack of ‘match fitness’) and the general league-wide parity.
But it was also due to the ‘return’ of a number of intriguing players or factors after an absence of several seasons. The combination of these returnees with many consistent and regular performers from last year helped to give round one its quite high entertainment value.
In other words, each game over the weekend had its ‘Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack’ aspect (the theme from 70s TV show Welcome Back Kotter, which some may remember from a Pizza Hut ad campaign in the early to mid 1990s) as well as its ‘Oh No Not You Again’ feature (an early Australian Crawl song title).
Parramatta v St George Illawarra
The season’s first game provided us with perhaps the round’s only team playing at something very close to their best. The Dragons dominated early possession and jumped to a lead on the back of hard running, stinging defence and an excellent kicking game from Jamie Soward. They were rarely run down after getting an early lead in 2009 and they weren’t run down here either. Parramatta occasionally showed glimpses of their late 2009 form but never seriously threatened.
Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack: to Timana Tahu (from Union) but also to the pre-season hype about Parramatta. Parramatta’s incredible late-season run in 2009 not surprisingly brought many supporters out of the woodwork. Throw in a few big-name signings such as Tahu and that Parramatta has a large supporter base and is in the part of Sydney under ‘threat’ from the AFL ‘invasion’ and it was little wonder the massive, Telegraph-led hype happened. Tahu had a relatively quiet game, but seasoned followers of the Eels are used to fairly slow season starts. They’d probably prefer less hype anyway.
Oh No Not You Again: to the Dragons’ incredible early-season intensity. This was how they started 2009, but this was somewhat unsurprising as new coach Wayne Bennett aimed to clean out the previous culture of laziness at the famous club. For them to start 2010 in a similar way though was quite unexpected. Obviously the hype for Parramatta probably contributed to their motivation, but after their late-season struggles and that premiership winners often pace themselves (sometimes by accident) more over the course of a season, one might have expected the Dragons to start 2010 in a more measured way. However, this shouldn’t detract from the impressiveness of their performance.
Brisbane v North Queensland
One of the more exciting games of the round, but played at a fairly low standard. Brisbane is a sliver of a shadow of their 2006 title-winning squad, but managed to jump to 24-nil lead over a largely pathetic Cowbores. From here, the Cowbores got some possession, Feral Thurston made one or two run-of-the-mill plays (which prompted ‘Best Player in the World’ garbage from the Channel 9 commentators) and Brisbane’s rookies made some inexplicable errors to allow the Cowbores all the way back to a deadlock. The big crowd and some shouting commentators created the feeling of a big game, but it was more mediocrity than class as the Cowbores botched a potential game-winning field goal and Brisbane spread the ball wide to instead take the win.
Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack: to the Cowbores’ Ty Williams. Or at least the body of Ty Williams, which is apparently now inhabited by a 70-year old man. With leprosy. In an era where fullbacks are far more versatile, skilful, fast and confident than they’ve ever been, in a time where if you don’t have a very good fullback, you might as well go home for the winter, the Cowbores provided this cadaver in their no. 1 jersey. True, he played a fairly prominent role on their 2005 grand-final team, but since then, he’s aged like a dog. To add insult to injury for Cowbores supporters, the dynamic Shannon Gallant, inexplicably given away by the Tigers, was apparently not considered. One question remains: exactly how many compromising pictures of the coaching staff does Williams possess? There was, however, one huge fan of Williams’ effort on Friday night: Cowbores centre Ashley Graham. Graham was only barely above execrable on Friday night, but was (barely) better than Williams.
Oh No Not You Again: to Brisbane and their ability to unearth special young talent. On paper, this was perhaps the weakest non-Origin Broncos team ever, but they played quite well. Their rookies, led by Corey Norman, were especially impressive. See, Cowbores, there are good fullbacks everywhere. If you close your eyes and spin around with your arm out, you’ll probably find two or three. No wonder Feral Thurston wants to run away to Union.
Bulldogs v Newcastle
This was the first of the round’s games where the overachievers of 2009 started slowly. In contrast to their 2009 opening, where they thrashed the reigning premiers Manly with their new team, the motivation of lining up against the wooden spoon favourites from the Hunter with a highly-lauded team (and the next addition to the Hall of Fame of players who leave Melbourne and then everyone realises the player is not very good, Steve Turner) was not nearly as huge. Meanwhile, Newcastle started the game strongly, clearly determined to show events of recent months and some prominent injuries would not affect them. They led 16-nil and 20-4 before a Bulldogs comeback fell short – by the barest of margins. Had Idris kept on running and not kicked ahead, a Bulldogs victory (either in the 80 minutes or in golden point) seemed certain.
Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack: to Newcastle’s Ben Cross. After missing most of last season with injury, the former Melbourne and State of Origin prop led Newcastle as they had the better of the early physical exchanges with the Bulldogs.
Oh No Not You Again: to the NRL’s interchange rules. Newcastle was severely hampered in the second half as two of their outside backs left the field with injury. Rugby League is a game of endurance and any increased interchange capacity for injured players would have to be unable to be exploited by the tiring or those pretending to be hurt. But any game where one team suffers heavily due to injuries to their outside backs (those players least likely to be interchanged during a game) always leaves a bad taste in the mouth. The Bulldogs comeback was definitely aided by large Newcastle forwards having to play in outside back positions.
Cronulla v Melbourne
Defending premiers have struggled in recent season starts, especially when forced to play away from home. While Cronulla is far from the NRL’s best, any game at Toyota Stadium can be tricky, especially with the strange microclimate there. Cronulla played Melbourne tough for most of the game, but Melbourne was not really troubled despite the closeness of the score line.
Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack: to Cronulla’s Adam Cuthbertson. Seemingly a player of great potential at Manly a few years ago, his decline out of first grade was sudden and surprising. This decline made him a perfect Cronulla signing: cheap, rejected by another club and a good complementary player. It’s hard to be too negative on Cronulla though, at least Cuthbertson is not a ‘Bra Boy with a drug problem.
Oh No Not You Again: to Melbourne and their ability to….put very simply, win. There may be a number of contenders for the NRL crown in 2010, but none of them has the ability to perform when needed as Melbourne does. They also don’t have the ability to make chicken salad out of chicken feathers as Melbourne does. It helps that some players want to play there for chicken feed, but their ability to grind out wins (damnit…no more chicken metaphors!), to manage their roster through the representative season and to time their run for the big September games means they should be strong favourites to defend their title in 2010.
Penrith v Canberra
Penrith threatened to end this game as a contest, but Canberra probably should have taken a lead in this game with about 20 minutes to go. Canberra was almost scoring at will and had a two-man overlap near Penrith’s line, but former Raider Adrian Purtell successfully went for the intercept and returned it 95 metres for a try and a momentum shift. Penrith won well in the end, but could very well have lost this one, and disturbingly easily too.
Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack: to fairly cool round one weather. Season starts in previous years have been affected by fairly hot and/or humid conditions. They would not necessarily affect the performances in a given match, but teams often struggled noticeably the week after playing a match in difficult conditions early in the season. Even the Sunday game on the Gold Coast (luckily) did not experience the searing conditions many expected. Hopefully, this will mean generally better performances in round two.
Oh No Not You Again: to Canberra’s erratic/inconsistent form away from home. From time to time, Canberra scores some emphatic wins away from the national capital, but for the most part, their play away from home is poor. Frustratingly for them, they often show glimpses of their talent, as they did in the second half when they threatened to storm into the game and take the lead. Apart from their amazingly successful 2003, where they racked up a huge number of away wins, this has been a characteristic of their play since the end of the Laurie Daley era and looks like continuing while the talented but inconsistent Terry Campese leads them around.
Gold Coast v New Zealand
A bit like the Bulldogs, the Gold Coast fell behind early against a team most expected them to defeat easily in an environment where they were very successful in 2009. However, the Gold Coast started their comeback a little sooner than the Bulldogs, was a bit luckier with weather conditions and their goal kicker (Prince) had a far better day than the unfortunate Ennis. Preston Campbell started his 38th season of top-flight rugby league with yet another impressive display although he suffered a concussion late in the game. His chances to play against Souths on Friday night though appear good as the routine post-concussion brain scan revealed nothing.
Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack: to the much-maligned Greg Bird. In a welcome change from previous behaviour, Bird took the flak for his misdemeanours. Despite making a number of mistakes, Bird’s generally aggressive and strong play helped the Titans to overcome their slow start. He could be one of the best signings of the year.
Oh No Not You Again: to the Warriors and their ability to lose after being in match-winning positions. Ok, for them to have an 18-6 lead over the Gold Coast with a totally new halves combination and missing a number of key forwards should not have been expected, but over the years, they regularly lose games where they have a very good chance to win. Some cruel people (ok, me) have suggested this was because of the high number of Polynesians in their team, but a fairly high turnover of personnel in recent years and an increasing Polynesian influence in many NRL teams means this factor no longer has the relevance it once did. Some other cruel people (not me) have suggested the Warriors will finish last this season. This seems unlikely; they will probably have a fairly good season, but one should never feel too comfortable when tipping them.
Souths v Sydney Roosters
On paper, this was a no-contest: a huge forward pack against a forward pack whose ranks had been considerably thinned over the off-season. Not surprisingly, Souths aimed to press home their advantage in the forwards, but the Roosters held firm and eventually overwhelmed Souths. Todd Carney had a brilliant first game as did fellow Hall of Shame member Nate Myles, but Souths had reason to consider themselves quite unlucky in several instances in this game, especially when Nathan Merritt inexplicably dropped the ball with 40 metres of grass in front of him.
Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack: to Todd Carney. If he and Mitchell Pearce can be at their best on the field (whilst combining this with a very sober off-field effort) the Roosters could have a very good season. To have two good playmakers (possibly three with Braith Anasta) puts you in the upper echelon on NRL teams. While the Roosters’ depth and overall talent may be suspect (at least at this early stage), the addition of Carney could be one of the signings of the year. Downtrodden Canberra and Cronulla supporters died a little more watching Carney and Bird respectively over the weekend.
Oh No Not You Again: to the bizarre nature of Souths v Roosters games in round one. The last four of these games have been won by the team who performed the worst in the previous season. The game on Sunday was quite similar to round one in 2008, when optimism was high for Souths after their strong 2007, but the Roosters thrashed them at Homebush.
Wests Tigers v Manly
Probably the best game of round one, but also the game where the strengths and weaknesses of the two teams meant the shifts in momentum were especially crucial. The Tigers speed and crisp ball-movement punished the slower Manly players whenever the Tigers had an extended period of possession, while Manly looked very impressive with lots of ball as their size overwhelmed the smaller Tigers. Jamie Lyon figured to come under a lot of pressure as the only real playmaking option in the halves for Manly, but he had an excellent game, while Gareth Ellis was a beacon of hard-running and hard-hitting in an ocean of fairly soft Tigers forward play. His late try was a worthy reward for his great game. Imagine him in a good pack of forwards…
Welcome Back, Welcome Back, Welcome Baaaaack: to Lote Tuqiri and Jason Cayless after a number of years in the wilderness. Both looked a little off their game but both will have increasingly important roles as the season goes on, Tuqiri at the end of mesmerising play from Farah and/or Marshall and Cayless coming off the bench to help slugs like Bryce Gibbs and Chris Heighington. Another one to be welcomed back is Manly’s Tony Williams, although it can be argued that he was never really here. Despite his massive size and bulk, he slept-walked his way through most games in the past (a symptom of starting his career under Michael Hagan at Parramatta no doubt) and his being named at centre brought joy to the eyes of Tigers supporters. But he had a good game, displaying rarely seen aggression and some new skills. He was caught out for the Tigers’ last few tries, but he won’t be the last right centre to suffer against the Tigers.
Oh No Not You Again: to the Tigers, who rarely seem to be able to play to their potential. At times, they can be brilliant, but their dumb play tally was at typically high levels in this game, led by Chris Heighington and his penchant for the stupid penalty. You sometimes get the impression they wouldn’t really mind if they finished ninth again but had a number of exciting games like this. It pays the bills and Channel 9 loves them for an exciting Sunday afternoon game every so often.
See you next week.
Tuesday, 8 September 2009
Round 26: Tuesday Roast™ People’s Choice Awards
With the Dally M Awards — the NRL’s awards night — rapidly approaching, it seems appropriate for the Tuesday Roast to end the (tipping) season with an awards night of its own. While the Dally M night is…not too bad, any night where Matt Awful takes home any award (that doesn’t have ‘worst’ or ‘overly reliant’ in the title) needs something of a makeover.
So…here is some awards the average NRL viewer might prefer to see presented:
The Wendell Sailor Award for Promotional Services to Rugby League
And the nominees are: Wendell Sailor, Wendell Sailor, Wendell Sailor and Wendell Sailor. Not surprisingly, the award goes to….Wendell Sailor.
In a season where off-field incidents have increased in number and severity, Wendell’s charisma and near-omnipotence have been of great benefit to the game. How popular is he? Even when he engages in actions many would deem arrogant or in bad taste, they become highly enjoyable moments (e.g. his on-field slanging match and post-try celebrations against Newcastle and Adam MacDougall in April).
While some cynics might say Wendell’s current persona is aimed squarely at his post-NRL career, there is little doubt he is an engaging and insightful analyst and these qualities have helped the Dragons to their very successful season so far.
Wendell’s relatively calm demeanour was most likely a key factor in the Dragons’ amazing form turnaround on Friday night, which saw them thrash Parramatta 37-0. But a very important factor here was that Parramatta didn’t need to win this game to keep their season alive: they hadn’t had this feeling in months. With sudden-death awaiting them now and some key returns from injury, watch for a much improved Parramatta performance in the re-match at Kogarah on Sunday.
But the boost of Wendell to the game’s image was more than countered by a massive amount of negative publicity from off-field incidents. That makes the task of finding the “best” incident a very difficult one…
The Palm Motor Inn (where Julian O’Neill “sh*t in Schlossy’s shoe” in March 1999) Award for the “best” off-field incident
And the nominees are: Brett Seymour, Brett Stewart, Anthony Watmough, Todd Carney, Jake Friend, Brett Seymour, Brad Fittler, Setaimata Sa, Jake Friend, David Fa’alogo and Nate Myles.
Yep, Nate Myles is the winner. Of course, there could still be any number of Mad Monday related incidents, but the combination of excess alcohol, an upset stomach (and corresponding medication) and a wrong door chosen brought poo back to the NRL headlines just over a decade after Julian O’Neill’s infamous misdemeanour.
If there was an award for a pathetic effort in the final game for a club legend, the Roosters would have secured it after their poor performance against the Cowbores. But if the rumour mill is on (or even close to) target, the fetid stench of gambling (and its use to profit handsomely) was all over this game. After much of the money on this game was for a Cowbores win by more than 13 points, it was extremely suspicious the way the Roosters folded late to push the final margin to beyond 13 points (not to mention the Cowbores’ celebrations for a game that should have meant little to them). We might hear a lot more about this otherwise insignificant game.
But Season 2009 saw the effect of one prominent off-field incident which came from a seemingly harmless situation. This off-field incident had far greater consequences than any of the above stupidity and sent one of the predicted contenders into a season-long torpor….
The Ben Alexander Memorial Award
For those who weren’t following rugby league in 1992, Ben Alexander was the brother of NRL commentator Greg Alexander. Penrith had won the title in 1991 after several years of being in contention and all signs pointed to a team which could contend for many years to come. Sadly, Ben was killed in a car crash which came after a drunken night, which was partly the result of Ben not receiving much time on the field. This crushed Penrith and the local community and the premiership-winning team of 1991 was dismantled from this point on.
While the Warriors’ loss wasn’t as sinister, they are the “winner” of this award, after the tragic drowning of up-and-comer Sonny Fai in January. Not only did this send the Warriors’ premiership chances plummeting, but it robbed us of one of the more exciting teams in the NRL. Save for a few brief purple patches, the Warriors found points very hard to come by in 2009.
In perhaps the most uneventful game of Round 26, Melbourne easily disposed of the Warriors and in doing so, sealed 4th spot. It was Stacey Jones’ final game (again) but the Warriors were unable to even trouble the scorer.
A number of teams in Round 26 either were unable to trouble the scorer or came very close to laying a duck egg. The most prominent of these lost the minor premiership because of it and might struggle over the next few weeks because of a major absence….
The Allan Langer ‘From Starring to Obscurity and back again’ Award
The nominees are: Adam MacDougall, Wendell Sailor, Eric Grothe, Brad Meyers, Phil Graham and…..Brett Kimmorley. Brett Kimmorley wins this award in a canter, despite some impressive returns from obscurity amongst the nominees. This is because Kimmorley stunk it up so much for Cronulla for a period spanning several seasons (not weeks or months). He steered Cronulla from a perennial contender for the title to someone who made up the numbers and was destined to never play Origin again after gifting Matt Bowen an intercept in Game 1 of 2005.
Given this, Ricky Stuart was probably well and truly justified in his desire to get rid of Kimmorley once he took over Cronulla in 2007, but by the time he got around to offloading Kimmorley, Kimmorley was starting to experience his late-career renaissance. This continued for much of the remainder of 2008 and flourished further in a quite talented Bulldogs team this season.
However, in the first game for the Bulldogs since Kimmorley’s sickening facial fractures, they were blown off the park by the Wests Tigers. Admittedly, Kimmorley might not have been able to do much: the Bulldogs started very slowly, barely touching the ball before falling 10-nil, but the pressure is on a number of prominent Bulldogs now to win without Kimmorley (either this week or next week).
The pressure was lifted from Manly somewhat on Saturday after they thrashed the Gold Coast, but that doesn’t exempt them from perhaps the most unwanted award of 2009…
The Chris Walker Award for the Big-Money Dud Signing of the Year
The nominees are: Trent Barrett, Ben Rogers, Tony Williams and Israel Folau and….ohhh there’s only one vote in it! Tony Williams is the winner, but Ben Rogers can feel very hard done by!
Williams’ sloth-like lethargy (despite his massive size) and a turning circle that made Luke Covell look nimble meant he was the most maligned Williams at Manly this season (an amazing feat, given the extreme case of second-year syndrome suffered by David Williams). It’s a great night for Williams as he also won the Jason Ryles “Looks like Tarzan, but Plays Like Jane” Award.
After the Dragons win on Friday night, the Gold Coast didn’t have much left to play for and it showed as Manly rather easily thrashed them. It wasn’t a top-shelf Manly display, but it wasn’t far off and suggests the challenge of playing big-name teams in the weeks ahead could help to produce similar efforts.
Like the Gold Coast, Souths didn’t have a lot to play for in Round 26, but somehow snuck home in the dying seconds to defeat Cronulla. For the second week in a row, a very brave Cronulla side had victory cruelly snatched from them. But in an unfortunate way, it highlights one problem in relying on too many young and inexperienced players…
The Michael Jennings Award for Youthful Inability to Read in Defence
For allowing rather easy match-winning tries in their final two games, Cronulla’s Matthew Wright is a worthy winner of this award. This award was introduced in 2007, when Penrith’s very talented rookie Michael Jennings wowed supporters while creating a nice breeze with his turnstile arms on opposing centres as they went past him.
Wright is only 18, so he could end up being a very good player, but as the depth of NRL squads is more severely tested each season and younger, more inexperienced players are required, pathetic defence such as that seen by Wright will become more common, not less.
Speaking of Jennings, his Penrith side travelled to Newcastle on Sunday with a chance to win and qualify for the finals. Not surprisingly, as they did in almost every game of significance they’ve played since the absence of Petero Civoniceva, Penrith….emulated Nate Myles and Julian O’Neill in their shorts.
But the award resulting from this game was for size. No, not Islander size or bulk, rather the best example of a “big man” with plenty of skills plying his craft for the Knights…
The Tracey Grimshaw ‘Big is Beautiful’ Award
The nominees were: George Rose (for almost bursting out of his suit on NRL on Fox last week), Danny Wicks (for his surprising skills and speed for basically a fatty boombah), Jarrad Hickey (who used to be a fatty and still looks a $1000 KFC Man of the Match away from returning to his former state) and Matt Utai (who hilariously tried to be a forward this season).
Newcastle’s Danny Wicks took out this award for the second straight year. Which prop forward scores an 80 metre try? Which prop flies (relatively speaking) through the air to take a bomb with two hands above his head AFL-style? He is a constant source of amusement on the field. Wicks’ success in recent seasons might persuade NRL teams to go back to the fatty prop (a la the trend of plus-size models on the catwalk).
The final two awards go to Canberra’s Terry Campese. Firstly, he beat out a strong field (including Paul Gallen and Billy Slater) for The ‘But My Mum says I’m the best player’ Award.
His next award is The Steve Turner ‘It’s Not My Fault They Picked Me’ Award (beating out David Williams and Steve Price (who was unfortunately ‘picked out’ by Brett White).
There is little doubt of Campese’s ability, but his on-field attitude and approach to the game was revealed to be barely above the level of a moody adolescent this season. Canberra’s ornament to the game, Alan Tongue, was often embarrassed by Campese’s unprompted appearances and stupid comments towards officials, while Campese’s inability to lead his team and play well away from home are disturbing attributes for someone in State of Origin contention to possess.
That brings to end the first Tuesday Roast™ People’s Choice Awards Night and, of course, the tipping season as a whole. Well done to all who received prizes, good luck to the remaining teams (who are ecstatic the Tigers couldn’t make it to September) and see you again in 2010.
Tuesday, 1 September 2009
Round 25: Doesn’t Matter If you’re Black or White….Or Maroon or Scarlet or Myrtle
As has been outlined many times before, consistency is an increasingly difficult goal in today’s NRL. Hence, many teams experience vast swings in form over just a few weeks. More than ever, for any team with serious intentions of taking home the premiership, it is vital to time your run for early October.
However, this task is far easier said than done. As a result, Round 25 — when you might expect all contending teams to be preparing solidly and teams in the lower part or on the fringe of the top 8 playing at their best — proved to be a more interesting and unpredictable round than many expected. So a wide variety of late-round team types were seen.
Let’s have a closer look at every team and where they currently are in their form cycle…with a bit of help from the King of Pop, Michael Jackson (as opposed to the King of Flop, Bryce Gibbs):
Parramatta, Brisbane and the Tigers are the teams playing nearest to their best at the moment; they are finishing the season with a Wet Sail (or, as Wacko Jacko might say, “Don’t Stop Til You Get Enough”).
Parramatta continued their incredible resurgence by thrashing Penrith on Friday night. Unlike their last game against the Tigers, they started strongly, absorbed Penrith’s best, looked the far better team but this didn’t show on the scoreboard until just before half-time. A try either side of the break meant the game was pretty much over.
So Parramatta’s incredible run continues. Some may remember they put 9 wins together in late 2006 before running out of steam (and prop forwards) and being eliminated in Week 1 of the finals. This win made it 7 consecutive wins….but there are few signs of a loss being due/overdue in Parramatta’s game (aside from their abnormal run of incredible form). They didn’t even show any signs of after effects following their arduous effort against the Tigers.
But it cannot be forgotten how low their ladder standing was prior to this run…as a result, even some bad luck on Friday night could mean the end of their season. While History says they’re due for a loss, it’s hard to see it coming just yet.
Brisbane’s late-season turnaround continued on Friday night with a hard-earned win against the Cowbores. The Cowbores were extremely fortunate to get the early lead, but their top-shelf defensive effort meant they led for most of the game. While Brisbane always looked the better team, they struggled to put points on and two of their three tries looked very doubtful.
But their third try was one of the best seen in 2009. A short mid-field cross-kick by Feral Thurston went a little too far and was swallowed up by galloping Brisbane outside back Jharal Yow Yeh. Yow Yeh took off towards the Cowbores line and only Feral stood in his way. Yow Yeh then unleashed a masterful series of sidesteps and bamboozled Feral (more than the worst mace attack he has received) into eating grass.
Yow Yeh’s leap across the try-line was icing on the cake and gave Brisbane the lead, the impetus to ward off the last Cowbore advances and hold on for a much-needed win. One only had to witness the normally serene Darren Lockyer’s post-game reaction for a gauge of how important this win was for the Broncos. Despite their horrible middle few months of the season, their recent form means they could have significant input into the ultimate destination of this year’s title.
While the Tigers have now lost their last two games, and — following Manly’s unjust late win on Sunday — are now out of the running for a finals spot, their recent form has been excellent: how unfortunate for their many prominent admirers that they threw away a slew of games in the early to middle rounds of the season.
History might just reveal that the Tigers gave the rampant Eels their toughest match in the second half of 2009 and their effort in the Gold Coast heat on Saturday night despite missing a host of players to injury was….I would say gallant, but he was sadly missing due to injury.
Despite being without vital cog Beau Ryan — and his extremely important contribution of being the first man in with the post-try hugs — the Tigers led 16-12 at half-time and coming back to a 24-all score-line inside the final 15 minutes (despite having scored more tries than the Titans). Unfortunately the tiring Tigers could not produce any more and some key errors from Robbie Farah gave the Titans the boost to record a 12-point victory.
Speaking of the Titans, they head up the next group of teams: Taking Care Of Business (or, as MJ might say, the Smooth Criminals). For much of 2009, the Gold Coast has performed well only when necessary and often struggled when a match looked won or an opposition was vulnerable. Their win last week meant a top-3 spot was sealed and it was unlikely they would be able to finish higher than 3rd, so a somewhat flat effort against the Tigers would not have surprised.
So the fact that they were able to overcome a slow start and two vulnerable pairings of outside defenders (where the Tigers attacked incessantly) meant this was an impressive win for the Titans. They might not win the premiership, but they probably deserve to be a little higher in the premiership betting than they currently are.
The other Smooth Criminals are the Bulldogs, who overcame a potentially major injury to Brett Kimmorley by easily discarding the struggling Warriors. Obviously the Bulldogs would have been keen to play well for El Masri’s final normal season home game, but they’ve recorded similar efforts against a number of other potentially dangerous teams in recent weeks. The finals figure to be much tougher, but the Bulldogs have a solid rhythm established (which should continue even without Kimmorley) and should ensure they have a great chance of ultimate success.
The next group of teams could very well hold up the trophy in October, but they look a bit sick at the moment. The Struggling Giants (or, as Jacko might say “Remember The Time (when we were playing well)”) comprise last year’s grand finalists and what appeared to be one of 2009’s premier teams.
Despite a terribly slow start, Manly’s efforts during the middle of the season meant they could have a six-week sloppy stretch leading into September without this being fatal to their premiership chances. While they generally perform well against highly-ranked opposition or in hostile opposition venues, for some reason, they often struggle against less capable teams. Witness their pathetic efforts against Souths, Cronulla (at Cronulla) and (mostly) the Tigers in recent weeks.
They made heavy weather of defeating an under-strength Melbourne last week and this should have led into a smashing of Cronulla at Brookvale on Sunday. Manly lost heavily to Souths, but their performance against the Sharks was, all things considered, probably worse. To struggle mightily for a win against a much-weakened team with one man down is awful (and this was with a not-so-bad game from Matt Awful). The constant errors, dumb penalties conceded and poor attacking options taken (when each time they attacked correctly, they scored) would have frustrated even the most mild-mannered Manly supporter.
Luckily, Manly won’t be playing any more bad teams this season — this is probably exactly what they need.
Melbourne did thrash the Roosters on Saturday night: but who hasn’t thrashed the Roosters lately? Of course, the main point from this game was the return of Greg Inglis, which considerably helped what was a near-impotent Melbourne attack, but almost as important could be a number of injuries to Melbourne’s forwards. This shouldn’t be a concern this week, when they take on the Warriors, but could be their downfall in later weeks.
Last — and least — are the Dragons. How on earth did they lose 41-6 to Souths?!?!?! This was the palest of pale shadows of the team which led the competition for most of the season. The defence, the cohesiveness, the teamwork, the speed, the intensity: all were absent on Saturday night. Several moments suggested this was close to the bottom for the Dragons: Morris’ drop ball with the try-line in sight (80m away, but still), the gaping hole into which Lowe strolled for a Souths’ try but finally the farcical effort by Poore to take a Souths’ line drop-out.
Similar to Manly, the Dragons’ quality of opposition from now on will lift considerably: the threat of further humiliation could be the catalyst to turn their season around. There is no doubt the Dragons are struggling, but they have time — and one of the best coaches — on their side.
Another plus for the Dragons is their high ladder position meant they could afford a late-season slump. For many others, including the Cowbores, Penrith and Newcastle, there is not the same amount of leeway. These teams make up the Close But No Cigar group (or, as Jacko might say, there “Ain’t No Sunshine (where they’ve gone)”).
On their day, the Cowbores probably have enough talent and star power to win a premiership. A few weeks ago, they were relatively well-placed to make a good run — albeit with a tough draw in front of them. Now, at the end of their tough draw, their season is over. Injuries certainly played a role (Payne, Bowen and Hegarty) but they had strong leads in recent weeks and couldn’t seal the win at all. They thoroughly deserve their place in September purgatory and (if you don’t mind some editorial comment) it couldn’t happen to a nicer team.
Penrith and Newcastle will be involved a virtual elimination semi-final on Sunday, but realistically, both are playing for the right to be thrashed by the Bulldogs. Obviously, these teams enjoyed quite solid form during much of the season, but aside from Newcastle’s first two games under their new coach, they have both struggled heavily over the last month or so.
Newcastle’s end to the season could have been substantially different were it not for a very resilient Canberra effort last night. Canberra, Souths and (to a lesser extent) Cronulla make up the penultimate group of teams: Nuisance Value (or, as MJ might say, “They Don’t Care About Us”).
It must be an enormously frustrating season for Canberra supporters. When they are near their best, there are few better teams in the NRL. They have a huge forward pack and some very talented outside backs. They have beaten a number of contending teams (Melbourne, Brisbane, Newcastle, St George Illawarra and the Gold Coast), but they are a long way from the top 8.
Still, wins such as Canberra’s last night show just how even a competition the NRL is and, that if a few things go differently for them next season, Canberra could do as Gold Coast and Cronulla have done in recent years and surprise everyone with a near minor premiership. It remains to be seen though whether Canberra can be Nuisance Value away from home and against a Brisbane team which will surely have revenge on their mind this Sunday night.
One could very easily replace Canberra with Souths in the above two paragraphs. Souths might not have the dominant forward pack of Canberra, but they are just as capable of a big win when many expect this not to be the case. While the Dragons might be out of form, Souths would have beaten many NRL teams with their excellent effort on Saturday night.
Unfortunately for Souths, their final opponent is the last member of the Nuisance Value group: Cronulla. While Manly was far from their best, Cronulla’s effort in holding on to the lead for the bulk of their game on Sunday was admirable. They were fairly hard done by when Luke Douglas was sent off but didn’t give up. Despite the number of grubs in the Cronulla team, it was hard not to cheer for them as full-time neared and they were still in the lead. Alas, Manly finally did what they should have done much earlier and took the lead, but Cronulla won many friends with their effort.
Lastly, it’s the Cactus group (or, as Jacko might say “They’re Bad, they’re bad, so bad, c’mon”): New Zealand and the Roosters. Sunday afternoon saw the Warriors once again show glimpses of their undeniable talent, but once again, allow a team not a lot better than them to win easily. For the Roosters, it was more of the same. Another heavy defeat, more alcohol-fuelled mayhem…but if they can turn up for the departing Fitzgibbon, they just might avoid the wooden spoon (their first since MJ was a boy).
See you next week.
Tuesday, 25 August 2009
Round 24: Round of The Decade: Several Wrongs Can Make A Right.
Round 24 in the NRL saw a number of pivotal matches (with respect to the shaping of the premiership ladder) take place, but what made the round memorable was that several of these games were amongst the best seen this season (or, in one case, many seasons). Obviously the NRL would be feeling great about such an outcome — however; this exciting lead-in to the finals is more in spite of (rather than because of) the efforts of the NRL.
While recent NRL rule changes (e.g. reducing the number of interchanges a team can make during a game, doubling the number of on-field referees and generally cleaning up the play-the-ball) have made for a faster and generally more attractive game in recent years (and, of course, in Round 24), it is probably too fast given that most teams find it quite difficult to achieve much consistency over the course of a season.
This problem is exacerbated by the gradual degradation of depth and experience in most NRL playing rosters, which, in turn, is largely due to the stubbornly low salary cap and the NRL’s failure to secure a much better deal from the game’s broadcasters.
However, these problems are somewhat offset by a finals series which allows half the teams to participate. Most teams (12 out of 16) have had problems putting together a sustained level of strong play during 2009, but for 8 of these 12 teams, the finals series was still a legitimate possibility entering Round 24: a quite silly outcome when you think about it, but it compensates somewhat for some games over a season when a lack of depth or experience makes a win nearly impossible.
But the major factor behind the exciting end to the minor premiership — and the factor which helps convert the NRL’s wrongs into a big right — is the generally very high level of intensity and competitiveness across the playing ranks of the NRL. If it wasn’t for this, representative games would not have the effect in evening up the competition that they do, some teams on the fringe of the top 8 would present less than the whole-hearted efforts we are currently seeing and we certainly wouldn’t be seeing some of those teams further down the ladder giving higher-up teams really tough games.
Friday night provided two top-shelf games, where intensity and competitiveness were at semi-final levels, but we also saw some brilliant skills and an extremely determined effort from a team which looked well-placed to have a fork stuck in them just a few weeks ago.
Wests Tigers against Parramatta was one of the more eagerly anticipated minor premiership games in recent memory. Two teams on long winning streaks with large supporter bases meant a bumper crowd at perhaps the best stadium for big games in Sydney…and no-one went home disappointed.
The game started slowly; both teams were perhaps a bit wary of the other’s attacking capabilities and wanted to establish a solid foundation, but the Tigers were first to threaten with points. A few minutes later, they had sensationally scored two tries (albeit with a bit of help from the referees) and an amazing game looked a real possibility.
Parramatta responded with some strong defence and then a well-worked try, which became an eight-point try, so the teams were equal at half-time; the Tigers could have felt somewhat unlucky to be in this position. But they were lucky to remain within touching distance of Parramatta in the first 10 or so minutes after half-time, after several errors and then Jarryd Hayne’s first significant involvement in the game; a big Parramatta win looked quite likely.
However, the Tigers hung on grimly to a chance of winning the game. They snuffed out several promising attacking raids from Parramatta due to a combination of strong defence and adequate desperation after Parramatta breaks, before the makeshift Tigers backline finished off some good work from their playmakers and the score-line narrowed once again.
This pattern — Parramatta try, Parramatta threatening to run away with the game, Tigers just doing enough to prevent a Parra-lanche then scoring themselves to threaten a comeback — happened again over the following 15 minutes, but the Tigers made one too many errors (when Ayshford took the ball too close to the sideline) which eventually led to the final piece of Hayne brilliance and a Parramatta win.
There have been chip-and-chase plays before, but this one took a wicked bounce, which fooled everyone…except Hayne. Hayne is not quite the perfect rugby league player — his play-acting after his misjudged elbow to Morris’ head and his bizarre behaviour in the game’s final play left a bad taste in the mouth of many — but he’s as close as anyone has been in recent memory.
Parramatta’s turnaround has been incredible, but Friday night also saw the continuation of another amazing turnaround in form, from a team with some history in this area. In Wollongong, Brisbane played their best game (by far) this season to beat the Dragons. It was only 3 weeks ago when they played their worst game when they were thrashed by Canberra. While they have welcomed some important players back from injury in recent weeks, the magnitude of improvement in this time is far more than could ever be explained by returning players.
Brisbane conceded 56 points against Canberra. They conceded 24 points in the first half just last week against Penrith. Since then…2 points conceded in 120 minutes. Players who looked remote and listless for several months while Brisbane struggled were breathing fire on Friday night; St George (Illawarra) couldn’t slay these dragons from the north.
The 2009 Broncos are not nearly as deep or talented as the title-winning 2006 Broncos, but there are similarities about the late-season turnaround both teams experienced. The 2006 squad lost five in a row before blanking the Bulldogs and Parramatta and using that as a springboard to a premiership. The upcoming opposition for the 2009 team looks quite friendly; a Broncos run, as inexplicable as it seemed just a few weeks ago, is certainly on the cards.
Meanwhile for the Dragons, the landscape has changed considerably. After bullying teams and using their speed for easy points for so long, they have run into two inconsistent teams in the last two weeks who have played their best (and most physical) game of the season. It can be a good wake-up call for them — assuming they can lift their game and defeat a similar effort if/when it comes during the finals — but Canberra and Brisbane might just have shown the rest of the NRL how to beat the Dragons. History may ultimately say the Dragons overachieved through much of 2009…a very interesting next few weeks for those following the Red V awaits.
Saturday’s early game was another cracker, as Newcastle stormed back after half time to overhaul the disappointing Cowbores. This was a must-win game for the Cowbores, and after a slow start, their attack got going and put on three impressive tries (and a try for Feral Thurston, where he fooled the defence, who were waiting for a penalty kick for touch, by taking a quick tap and scoring easily).
But everything went for Newcastle in the second half. They showed few signs of fatigue after a tough game last Monday night, the Cowbores defence proved to be quite charitable, another bad knee injury to Matt Bowen hurt the Cowbores across the park and Kurt Gidley had a successful night, not missing a single attempt for goal.
Newcastle’s comeback was so good they had overhauled the Cowbores’ 14-point lead within 25 minutes. There were some last-minute nerves as the Cowbores scored to cut the Knights’ lead to 6 but they held on for an impressive win. Not only did they put back to back wins together inside five days, but they virtually ended the season for the Cowbores: this alone is worthy of the highest praise.
It’s a rare event that a late-season grand final re-match is relegated to being only the fourth best match of the round, but this was the case in Round 24 where Manly outlasted Melbourne in the battle of the robots. Manly had NEVER won in Melbourne before Sunday and it appeared they would never have a better chance to do so. Melbourne’s attacking capability was severely limited with the continued absence of Inglis, while Manly should have thanked Channel 9 for choosing this as their Sunday game: Olympic Park holds far fewer demons on a dry Sunday afternoon (as opposed to a dewy Friday or Saturday night).
However, someone forgot to tell Manly that it was very windy in Melbourne on Sunday. Actually, given the way Manly played with the wind at their back in the first half, you’d have thought they had never played on a windy day before. ‘Dumb’ would be a polite way to describe Manly’s approach. Their kicking game was pathetic; Matt Awful showed his intentions to kick early in Manly’s first set for field position and the chance of a 40-20 but he dropped the ball. Rarely for the rest of the half did Manly show any signs of thought or strategy when kicking with the gale at their back.
Luckily for them, Melbourne was not in much of a position to punish them. On such a windy day, long-range attack (i.e. good passing and player movement opening up a gap from outside the opposition’s 20-metre line) was always going to be more successful than having to put a kick up near the goal-line and with Olympic Park’s shallow in-goal areas, but only in the second half did Melbourne display any sort of threat from distance.
Manly’s defence largely repelled them and luckily responded with a try after a kick pinballed between players. When Awful put in his first good kick of the half, it gathered pace as it neared the sideline for a 40-20 and Manly scored soon after through some typically feeble Brett Finch defence: how easy was that?! (Speaking of Brett Finch and mistakes, for those with a long memory, Fox Sports will be playing his poor error in judgement from the 2001 match between Canberra and Newcastle at 9.30pm tonight. How bad was it? Finch was in tears after he gifted Newcastle the win….Andrew Johns famously felt quite sorry for Finch).
More luck came Manly’s way in the second half as Melbourne’s kicking game with the wind at their back was almost as bad as Manly’s: a highly surprising result given that Cronk and Cameron Smith are considered quite intelligent players. However Melbourne did use the ball quite well from long-distance and threatened to overwhelm Manly with two tries and a brilliant Smith conversion to take a 16-12 lead.
But Manly held true and somehow took the lead back after Melbourne failed to deal with a Jamie Lyon kick. Awful’s conversion and a later penalty goal gave Manly a four-point lead (and 20 points…the historical barrier for success if you’re an opposition team playing in Melbourne). Despite some nervous moments (e.g. makeshift fullback Farrar’s brilliant tackle on Slater probably saved the win for Manly), Manly held on for what could be a very important win.
The other ‘Round of the Decade’ matches were not quite so awe-inspiring. Penrith took a while to get going, but had far too much for Souths (who had played their grand final against the Titans last week). Canberra also had their grand final last week when they beat the Dragons. Not surprisingly, the Warriors found them to be quite vulnerable and defeated them easily. The Gold Coast did their usual against rubbish teams and produced little more than was necessary to beat Cronulla, while last night, the Bulldogs were solid in easily defeating the Roosters.
This game featured a continuation in the late-career renaissance of Brett Kimmorley, as he toyed with the Roosters and looked a lot like himself from 10 or so years ago. Some have called Kimmorley an ‘evergreen’; these people need to check some press clippings (or, ideally, some Monday Roasts) circa 2004-2006 when Kimmorley stunk it up for Cronulla. His combination with Adam Dykes was one of the least successful (in terms of win-loss percentage) in history (for a combination which stayed together for so long) and Cronulla almost perennially played horribly in the second half of each season. Full credit to Kimmorley, of course, for turning his career around (and not running off to England and a big paycheck) but despite the nice story and his affable on-screen persona, his execrable form for a number of years for the worst team in history should not be forgotten.
See you next week.
Tuesday, 18 August 2009
Round 23: The NRL Report
Rugby League has a rich and storied history since its birth over 100 years ago. For the bulk of this period, Rugby League was not a profession. It was a pastime, a weekend event, a discussion point on Monday morning at school or the office. It wasn’t followed on pay television; if you loved the game, you just had to watch it in person (or at worst, listen to it on radio). There were a few administrators who could use Rugby League to put food on the table, but they were mostly retired greats of the game who were incapable of working for Rothmans, running a pub down the coast or one of several other typical post-playing career jobs.
In short, Rugby League was a sport, not a business, but this changed. The origins of this shift were probably seen in the 1970s (and perhaps earlier) but it was the 1980s when the movement towards full-time professionalism in the game accelerated.
Given the two decades plus since this shift hastened, you’d think the Rugby League community would be used to cold-hearted, business-like decisions made by clubs, players and coaches. The decision by Newcastle to sack Coach Brian Smith three games after his signing with the Roosters from next season should not have surprised anyone; if anything, it should have happened sooner.
Granted, Smith is a target for several sections of Rugby League media, but really…Smith’s sacking should have been the equivalent of a five-line press release summary in the corner of a page in the Fin Review. However, despite the morphing of sport into business, the reality is the Rugby League follower will always view the sport as a game, no matter how money-hungry its participants become.
But what if it was viewed as a business, with 16 companies out to maximise profit, minimise costs and corner as much of the market as possible? Here’s how the reporting of Rugby League events in the media could take place in such a world…
And now it’s the NRL report with Tom Piotrowski from CommSec, and Tom, who were the best performers this week?
Once again, Karen, it was ParraEels Ltd. which recorded the strongest growth. This came on the back of another extremely strong showing, which outstripped all but the most bullish of expectations from analysts. While some expected their strategic movements (asset sales and the hiring of a new CEO) in the early and late parts of FY 2008/09 to bear fruit in the medium to longer term (given their strong market fundamentals and well established brand), few gave them any chance to be posting such strong numbers so soon.
As their chart shows, it has been a meteoric rise for ParraEels over the last few months, but they remain below the historic highs of 2001 and 2005, so there is still some upside if you wish to get on the bandwagon. Despite their surge in recent months, a number of brokers see ongoing growth and positive reinforcement to come from their asset buyback and several other acquisitions…but be warned, what goes up must eventually come down. If you’re looking at ParraEels to put in your back pocket, that might be the best bet…but history says you will enjoy a bumpy ride!
Similarly, the Wests/Tigers conglomerate has risen remarkably when most of the fundamentals pointed to continued weakness. While their competitive cost structure and flashy brand translates to continued appeal with mum-and-dad and institutional investors alike, most of their rallies after their incredible burst to prominence in the early part of FY 2005/06 have been flashes in the pan.
The consensus view is unclear whether this current rally will be any different; they have enjoyed the rails run of late with very friendly market conditions, while a rare overseas investment foray early in FY 2008/09 has been paying some significant dividends. However, it remains unclear if they can continue to produce such good results. Their relative lack of a diversified asset portfolio has always haunted them; this hinders their ability to produce consistently in difficult markets, such as the one looming on the horizon for them. A strong recent performer, yes, but it is no surprise that more analysts are recommending their clients to sell Wests/Tigers.
Interesting, what do you make of the results of blue-chips News Brisbane and News Melbourne?
The News-owned companies experienced contrasting fortunes in their latest results, but can feel fairly good about the near term.
News Melbourne went into a trading halt earlier in the week and subsequently suffered a sharp dive when they had to release a product recall on their popular Inglis brand. The rumour mill went into overdrive once this info hit the bourse and even several days after the trading halt was lifted. It appears as though Inglis will be back on the shelves in the not-too-distant future, but it remains to be seen how much damage Inglis — and News Melbourne — have suffered. However, the consensus, despite their relatively poor showing this week, is that News Melbourne remains a fundamentally strong outfit and will be able to post very good results for the remainder of the trading year: News Melbourne is a buy or a buy/hold from all analysts surveyed.
For their Brisbane counterpart, it has been well-established that a number of poor investment decisions in recent times have hit their bottom line hard; this is not the profits machine it was for so many years. Throw in a number of unplanned maintenance shutdowns and it is not surprising just how poorly News Brisbane has been performing.
However, as is often the case, investors can overshoot in the good times and oversell in the bad; the strong fundamentals of News Brisbane remain and have been largely ignored. The chart shows News Brisbane exhibited the first green shoots in their last set of results, which improved further last week. Given their strong fundamentals and their intention (and ability) to invest in some significant new assets in coming years, this remains a solid defensive stock.
Contrasting results for the best performers so far in CY 2009, Red V Ltd and Doggie Style Inc.?
As we all know, Red V Ltd have been extremely successful this year. It just goes to show the value of top-shelf boardroom leadership. People can get angry with the issue of executive pay, but new Red V CEO Wayne Bennett would suggest he’s worth every penny (or much more) of his salary.
Recent results for Red V were very lucrative for investors (many of whom got on board during the halcyon days of the 1960s) and were achieved in a very efficient and productive manner, but they suffered a rare hiccup after their annual visit to Canberra last week. Despite their very famous brand and a number of studies showing quite strong multiplier effects from their investments, Canberra has been a very difficult opponent for Red V over many years (even following the change of Government).
Their ongoing trouble with the Feds notwithstanding, Red V has very solid ongoing prospects. Given Bennett’s history of success with News Brisbane, now might be a good time to buy: novices could be shaken by their failure in Canberra and could look to sell, whereas wiser heads had already factored this into Red V’s price.
Some other news about Red V this week concerns rumours of a possible takeover of Sharks International. These companies have a well-established rivalry in the southern Sydney market, but whispers from within Red V see Sharks International as a similar-type target as Illawarra Steel was in 1998: asset-rich but revenue-poor and able to be won over eventually by the history of Red V. Speculation to this end has probably put a floor under Sharks International’s price at present, but be prepared for this floor to fall away as m&a activity in NRL is notoriously slow to take place.
Doggie Style Inc. has come off the boil somewhat in recent results, although history tells us that when this happens, there’s usually a method to their madness and there is a definite plan to attack and profit heavily in the not too distant future. Look for some more softness in their price in coming months as the market realises the effect of the retiring of the El Masri brand (although rumours continue that El Masri will not be lost to Doggie Style completely; rather, it will assume a secondary role) but Doggie Style quietly announced several small acquisitions this week. Their constant ability to re-invent themselves in tough times means this is a resilient stock: highly recommended by most analysts.
And lastly, further success in what has usually been a challenging market sector for Golden Titans Ltd.?
Yes, Karen, Golden Titans quickly established a strong niche in the burgeoning SEQ market following their incorporation in 2007, but has struggled to gain a foothold elsewhere, especially in the notoriously tough Sydney market. Whereas some (such as Doggie Style Inc.) have fuelled recovery and growth via asset acquisition and reinvigoration, Golden Titans have strengthened via organic growth and improved strategy and preparation with their existing stock of assets.
So far in CY 2009, Golden Titans have continued their dominance in SEQ but have recorded much improved results (albeit off a low base) in other metropolitan areas. They had their first success in Melbourne in April and now have had successful ventures in Auckland and western Sydney in the last two weeks.
Western Sydney required all of Golden Titans’ nous and expertise; their usual star performers gave a good showing but success was largely due to a powerhouse effort from Minichiello. His familiarity with that market, in combination with his other strengths, proved decisive.
The Sydney challenge will no doubt present itself again soon, but in the meantime, those who have invested in Golden Titans will receive some nice rewards in coming weeks as their focus returns to their native area.
See you next week.
