Round 2 - Bounce Backs and Upsets: How Round 2 is the Most Difficult Round to Tip

As the NRL has become a more even competition over the last decade, this has heightened the importance of collective intensity. The impact of a salary cap with relatively little give from one year to the next (which sees an annual transfer of talent from rich to poor clubs and the thinning of most teams’ depth) and a representative schedule which tends to punish the successful teams means even the strongest line-up can be made to look silly if they play without the necessary desire.

There are few times during a rugby league season where collective intensity seems to play as an important a role as it does in Round 2. Here, teams who started the season strongly must face up to a different challenge: backing up this effort with another one (with only a few measly trial runs on which to build a foundation). Also, those teams who started Round 1 with hopes of semi-finals but crashed to earth are now facing the possibility of starting the season with two losses. Meanwhile, the team who feels good after Round 1 (despite beating only patchy opposition) and the team who played strongly in Round 1 but fell short also face difficult challenges.

Not surprisingly, Round 2 has consistently thrown up surprising results. This cannot be considered a fluke: since 1994, the bookmakers’ favourites in Round 2 have won only 50% of games – the lowest percentage the favourites have won in any round. During the same period, games between first-up winners and first-up losers in Round 2 have also been split equally.

Let’s take a closer look at Round 2, 2012 to try and find some order in a seemingly chaotic landscape.

Manly v. Wests Tigers

The Bounce Back: As Tigers (and Sharks) suffered mightily in oppressive conditions at Leichhardt last Sunday, while Manly had a close contest but in mild weather in Auckland, this looked to be an easy one. Surely the Tigers could not compete so soon after such a draining contest.

The Upset: However, confirmation of injuries to Glenn Stewart and Steve Matai – and a whisper of an injury to Kieran Foran – meant Manly started this game as the outsider. A highly entertaining contest saw the Tigers lead at half-time, but Manly responded quickly after half-time in a manner similar to their start in Auckland a week ago. The Tigers came back late but it was not enough.

Upset, of course, has several meanings and supporters of non-annoying media and/or ground-announcers would have been dismayed by the 3807th instalment of Ray Warren / Phil Gould pretend/contrived arguments as well as the return of Manly’s ancient PA man Grant Goldman. Rabs gave greater evidence of his laziness/stupidity by referring to Dale Cherry-Evans. However, worse was still to come on this front.

Brisbane v. North Queensland

The Bounce Back: Another relatively easy one here, with the Cowbores giving an abhorrent performance last Saturday night while Brisbane had a very easy win against a poor Parramatta team. The talent on the Cowbores meant they were unlikely to play poorly again, while Brisbane was not tested by the Eels.

The Upset: After a slow first-half, the Broncos looked to have lifted sufficiently to secured the win in a high-scoring and exciting match but Little Matty Bowen™ caught Brisbane’s scrum defence out and raced away to win the game for the Cowbores. Ray Hadley, like every other commentator ever, forgot all about Bowen’s mistakes and screamed loudly after the defence failed to take care of a routine play against him.

Hadley’s return to rugby league on television had it all: constantly mentioning a point so a curiosity became a festering sore (the numbers which peeled off many of the Cowbores’ players backs over the course of the game), the race-calling/auction-announcing style for which Hadley is famous and, of course, the right-wing slander of Kevin Rudd, who was at the game in an unofficial capacity. Rugby League will be infinitely poorer if this windbag replaces the engaging, effervescent and sometimes eccentric Andrew Voss in a regular capacity.

Gold Coast v. Canberra

The Bounce Back: While Gold Coast won in Round 1 and Canberra lost, it was quite difficult to gauge how these teams lined up due to the vastly different oppositions. As mentioned, North Queensland was awful while Canberra pushed Melbourne to the limit (albeit in wet conditions which suited the Canberra pack). Given Canberra’s tendency for slow season starts and their unfamiliarity with warm early season conditions (as well as some likelihood that the Titans would be overturn a long slump and finally play well at home), the more likely bounce back was that Canberra would play like the team that should one day get NRL half-wit David Furner fired.

(Seriously Dave, for-and-against points should be adjusted based on post-game analysis of referees’ decisions?!?!?!)

The Upset: A well-played and even first half gave way to Canberra enjoying the better of the second half and recording a strong win, thus recording back-to-back decent efforts early in the season for the first time since…..well before the retard Furner was employed.

Further evidence of Furner’s stupidity was evidenced by the brilliant debut of youngster Jack Wighton on the wing. This is the same wing where Canberra recently signed oxygen thief Michael Bani.

Canterbury v. St George Illawarra

The Bounce Back: Perversely, this one was easy but difficult at the same time. The Dragons almost looked like they were playing a semi-final in Newcastle two Thursdays ago, so a fall back to earth looked likely. However, the Bulldogs took a long time to overcome Penrith, who tried hard but lacked, to put it bluntly, talent in their Round 1 match. It was difficult to establish how the new-look Bulldogs might play in this game.

The Upset: A combination of some injuries to an already depleted squad and some baffling penalties and errors conceded early on meant the Dragons had no chance against an eager Bulldogs side. The Dragons struggled when having to come from behind at their best in the last few years; they looked no chance chasing more than 10 points on Saturday night. Meanwhile, it’s still hard to tell just how good the undefeated Bulldogs are.

Cronulla v. Newcastle

The Bounce Back: An easy one at first glance, Cronulla was unlikely to string two decent games together (given their mediocre talent level and depth) while the Knights couldn’t possibly play as bad as they did in Round 1. However Cronulla’s size across the park threatened to trouble their opponent, while the Knights’ problems looked like they would need several weeks to resolve.

The Upset: Cronulla had a host of excellent chances to threaten the upset, especially in the first half, but failed to convert any of them. Newcastle’s thin lead was rather simply extended early in the second half and the upset was off the cards from then on. Newcastle was improved from Round 1, but only barely; this was not a game to remember. Referee Tony Archer would love to forget his strange decision which gave Newcastle their third try. Former Shark Matt Hilder again proved his worth with an excellent game after Kurt Gidley’s early injury.

Sydney Roosters v. Penrith

The Bounce-Back: While the Roosters stole a Round 1 win over LOL@50uff$ and Penrith lost late on against the Bulldogs, the bounce-back didn’t look a great option. Penrith had enough possession and attacking field position to beat the Bulldogs multiple times over, yet scored just two tries (one off an error). How would they react to the decent likelihood of less favourable conditions? Meanwhile, the Roosters welcomed back Braith Anasta and could have gained great confidence from such an unlikely win.

The Upset: The crash landing some expected from the Roosters did not eventuate; they played quite well, but they could not match the enthusiasm of the Panthers. Given the lack of quality across much of Penrith’s team (with second-rate talent such as Weston, Ciraldo, Newton, Galea, Burns, Tighe…..basically the whole team except Lewis, Jennings and Kingston), new coach Ivan Cleary could be in the running for coach of the year award if they can play with this much heart over much of the season.

Melbourne v. LOL@50uff$

The Bounce-Back: While Melbourne rarely lose at home and LOL@50uff$ rarely win full stop (even if they have the lead with 3 minutes left), the bounce-back was on here. Melbourne looked almost scared of Canberra and their big pack last week. Heck, they rushed Jason freaking Ryles back to remedy this situation. Ryles hasn’t remedied anything in the last decade unless it was a severe shortage of stupid penalties, offloads or being marched back 10 extra metres.

The Upset: LOL@50uff$ looked a chance here, especially in the first half. Issac Luke, massive cannonball-inflicting grub and diving cheat that he is, made a significant difference upon his return from well-deserved and much-too-short suspension. Inglis took a pass from Taylor, wondered what that thing was in his hands (after all, he never gets it passed to him from Souths’ halves) before passing it to Macqueen for a try in the corner. Melbourne looked a little bit like new undies might be needed again this week as Souths’ pack gained an edge.

But before Cooper Cronk could do his best Tim Smith scaredy-cat cross-field kick from 20 metres out from his line in the ’05 prelim final against the Cowbores impersonation again, the Storm settled and slowly took over, led by Billy Slater.

Parramatta v. New Zealand

The Bounce-Back: With Jarryd Hayne set to return from injury and some doubts about the Warriors against under-strength opposition and in early-season games, Parramatta looked likely to – at the very least – improve greatly from their first-up shocker against Brisbane.

Unfortunately the Eels lost Nathan Hindmarsh before kickoff and Hayne not long after, denting their hopes of avoiding a 0-2 start.

The Upset: The Warriors scored some easy tries in this game, but the gallant Eels were somehow only 4 points down within the final 10 minutes. The Warriors, despite looking a little fragile at times, won well in the end. Unfortunately for Parramatta, an improved effort yielded much the same result. The bounce back will have to wait another week.

After all that, favourites won 3 out of the 8 games and the Round 1 loser won 3 out of 4 when playing Round 1 winners, further strengthening these trends of recent years.

Thankfully, tipping (according to the stats) only gets easier from here. See you next week.