Round 23: State of the Game

In this week’s Roast, we take a look at some dominant trends in the NRL in 2011.

Dominance of (TAB) Favourites

With a return to allowing more physical play in tackles (meaning slower play-the-balls) as well as all teams continuing to make gains in strength and endurance, one of the outcomes has been for those teams with more talent and skill to win more often.

Hence, the bookmakers have done a better job at predicting winners in 2011 than in any time since the NRL returned to a 16-team competition in 2007 (and probably better than any season since 2002 or 2003). As of Round 23, they are tipping at a 66% success rate for the season (compared to 60%, 63%, 62% and 61% at this stage of this season over the previous four seasons).

Lower Scores (& Tighter Margins)

Similarly, scoring is down in 2011 more than any season since 1996. The average score by any team in a game is 19.4 points. This number peaked in the early 2000s as the game’s administrators believed scoring was what supporters wanted (and tweaked the rules accordingly). Since then, slight rule re-adjustments and continued gains in fitness and strength saw points scored fall back. Wet conditions for a greater-than-normal part of the season were also a factor this season.

Not surprisingly, the above factors have seen the average margin of victory in the NRL fall to its lowest level in the NRL’s history (i.e. since 1998) of just 13 points.

More Field Goals

Following on from above, lower scores, closer contests and more wet conditions have led to a greater use of field goals in season 2011. There have been 39 field goals kicked so far in 2011; this is greater than in any full season since 1997, with the field goals per game statistic higher than in any season since 1993.

With 6 more field goals over the season’s final 3 rounds – certainly not out of the question, given players who love to kick a field goal even if it’s not entirely necessary (such as James Moloney, Chris Sandow and Luke Walsh) – this season’s field goal tally will be the fourth highest in the modern era (i.e. after 1970, when the field goal’s worth was reduced from two points to one).

Dominance of Premiership-Winning Coaches

In every season since 2000, there has been 3 or less former premiership winning coaches with teams in that season’s top 8 finals series. This probably explains the 55% success rate for non premiership winning coaches in grand finals during this time.

However, this season will almost certainly be different. Barring the unlikely outcome of Canterbury leapfrogging both Souths and the Tigers into a top-8 spot, there will be at least 4 premiership winning coaches in this year’s top 8, with the possibility of 5 (if Souths pushes Newcastle out). If this does happen, it will be the first time a finals series has featured 5 former premiership winning coaches since 1998 (when it was a top-10 finals).

But….So Few Grand Finals Between Premiership-Winning Coaches

Perhaps 2011 will see the end of a quite amazing drought when it comes to premiership-winning coaches. Since 1970, there have only been three grand finals featuring a match-up of former premiership-winning coaches. Two of these three took place in 1990 and 1991, when Tim Sheens and Phil Gould took their teams into battle.

So much for premiership experience off the field being a vital component of a team’s success….

Difficulty of Winning 5 Straight After Final Origin Weekend and Winning Premiership

Finally, let’s examine the historical obstacles Melbourne (and, to a lesser extent, the Tigers) will run into trying to win this year’s premiership.

With solid wins in Round 23, Melbourne and Wests Tigers each won the five games following the round after the final Origin game. Since 1999, 15 teams have done this (17 teams if you include going undefeated for five games, as opposed to winning all five games).

Only three of these teams went on to win the premiership: Brisbane in 2000, Canterbury in 2004 and Wests in 2005. Most of the rest of these teams fell at either of the final two hurdles in an NRL season.

Melbourne will more than likely have to overcome winning the minor premiership in order to win the 2011 premiership. Since 1999, only four teams have won the minor premiership and gone on to win the premiership: Brisbane in 2000, Penrith in 2003, Melbourne in 2007 and St George Illawarra in 2010.

That should be more than enough for you to ponder… On to the games from Round 23:

Friday’s action shamefully started (in NSW) with Penrith taking on the Tigers, as opposed to the Cowboys against Brisbane. This was not surprisingly a far better game but featured Australian elite rugby league’s first 350-game player in Darren Lockyer. Anyway, the Tigers let Penrith hang around for a while but won quite comfortably in the end. The far better game in Townsville was broken open by several Brisbane long-range tries. Lockyer mentioned some significant injuries he has received in Townsville, but Brisbane has very happy memories of the far north, with just two losses there in their history.

Saturday kicked off with another cracker in another rotten timeslot: New Zealand up against Newcastle. Both teams needed this one to stay clear of the chasing pack and an excellent game was seen. Newcastle had the better of the early going, but the Warriors continued their pattern of strong second halves and came home with the win. Next up, the resilient Eels once again came close to defeating a highly-ranked opponent, but some very cheap points given to Manly early in the second half saw Parramatta record yet another close loss. Finally, Melbourne easily accounted for the Gold Coast, but an injury to Cooper Cronk will make their final few weeks a little trickier than they would otherwise have been.

Sunday started off with Souths continuing their red-hot form smashing Canberra. With any luck, Souths will register another well-received ninth placed finish, but their last few weeks, whilst brilliant, surely can only be teasing the likes of Lang, Crowe and Richardson. Incoming coach Michael Maguire should probably avoid watching lest he thinks they normally play so well. The late game saw the Roosters play their best and most intense game in many years. But this should not detract from the fact that St George Illawarra was poor, especially the supposedly fit Jamie Soward, who should have worn a skirt given how he played.

The round ended on Monday with one of the worst games of the season. Somehow Canterbury has won two games in a row and remains in finals contention. I guess you can only beat the teams you’re drawn to play…but it’s hard not to see their season ending against Manly this weekend.

See you next week.