Round 14: Origin - A Look Towards The Future?

Last night’s State of Origin game saw New South Wales post a hard-working victory, which put an end to a series of quite unflattering numbers. This was New South Wales’ first win in five games anywhere, their first win in five games at ANZ Stadium and their first win in eight games (and second win in thirteen games) while the series was still live. Their combination of speed and (enough) size eventually wore Queensland down.

However, this was far from a run-of-the-mill Origin game. The ultimate significance of last night will not be clear for many years, but we may have seen: the end of an era in Origin domination, a glimpse at how Rugby League might be played in the not-too-distant future (perhaps as early as 2012) and further confirmation of how boring Rugby League can be at the highest level.

While it was ‘only’ one game and Queensland will have home ground advantage in the deciding third game, last night could be the long-awaited turnaround New South Wales has been after. Like so many games in recent years, last night’s game was up for grabs in the dying minutes, but this time, Queensland was unable to take the game while it was available. Quite frankly, they looked unable to do so.

Although they did lift their performance somewhat in patches during the final 20 minutes, they largely struggled for field position and looked uncertain on the rare occasions they got close to the New South Wales try-line. Even more remarkably, Queensland’s struggles took place despite them featuring a team at full strength with no (known) injuries.

The mental toughness and discipline required to win so many games, even when not necessary to win the series over the years, in this manner over the years is massive, so perhaps it was not surprising that they eventually failed to come through. However, New South Wales’ new-look line-up, with just two props, but stacked with utility types blessed with ample size and speed was far from overmatched by Queensland’s traditionally dominant pack. On the contrary, New South Wales used their speed well in harassing Queensland. Darren Lockyer probably hasn’t looked to kick the ball into touch so many times during a game for many years; Queensland needed to catch their breath much more often than normal.

With his unusual line-up being so successful, it is possible that Ricky Stuart could have (accidentally – as evidenced by his efforts to convince prop Luke Bailey to end his representative retirement) shown the way in terms of how Origin teams and, ultimately, NRL teams will look in the years to come. As NRL players’ combination of size, speed and endurance continues to improve, the use of interchange has come down. Most teams routinely used their allotted 10 interchanges in a given game some years back; now, most teams will not use 10 interchanges.

However the major factors which could lead to the NSW type of team becoming more common are: pressure on the NRL to give representative players more time off between major games, pressure on the NRL to maximise the revenue from the upcoming television broadcast rights contract and (internal) pressure on the NRL to maintain an even competition despite greater participation and effectiveness from representative players.

Combined with less use of the interchange by teams, it would not surprise for the NRL to (again) cut back on the maximum number of interchanges allowed to perhaps 8 or 6. A scenario of 6 interchanges and a short quarter time break in matches (hence allowing for more ads) is not out of the question.

Under this scenario, or even an eight-interchange one, a team with less hulking props and with more fast but strong enough players (and enough size in other positions) would provide the best chance of success. Paul Gallen may discover his time at prop becomes almost permanent from now on.

Last night’s Origin might have been a look towards the future but while much could change in Rugby League, one thing that won’t change is playmakers will continue to be of paramount importance. Hence, in last night’s game, where the talented individuals struggled to make an impact, combined with low error and penalty counts, and a fairly conservative approach from both teams, the result was a mostly boring game.

Origin has always been where the very best Rugby League players have been showcased. Since the advent of complete professionalism in the game, the very best players in the game combined on one field has more often meant the collection of the world’s best athletes in Rugby League than the world’s best skilled Rugby League players. Last night, Stuart’s brave new world of Rugby League team composition renewed the focus on the athletic player at the highest level.

However, while there was little doubt as to the athletic quality on field and to the combined efforts of the players, the aesthetic quality of the game was lacking considerably. Both teams played very conservatively in the first half, only upping the attacking flair slightly in the second. It was not surprising that New South Wales took this approach; they had such a new look team (although with a lot of old faces), have suffered mightily from mistakes in past games and another loss would probably have seen more sweeping changes for Game 3. But for Queensland and their talented playmakers to show little sign of any attacking flair or innovation was disappointing; the game suffered. New South Wales’ defence can claim some credit but nowhere near all of it.

This combination of improved physicality, speed and endurance, and struggling, conservative attacking play reminded me of correspondence received from Tuesday Roast tipster Leigh Bentley in 2004 regarding how Origin players had become faster and more intense, but less capable in attack and less exciting. Granted, Leigh had been out of the country for three years (so the changes were more pronounced), but his description of how the game changed in 2004 can be applied quite well in 2011 (and, of course, in 2012 and 2013 as the brave new world solidifies its presence):

Last night was the first Origin I've watched live on TV since 2001. I turned Roy & HG off after about 5 minutes because they didn't sound like they really cared any more. In 3 years it seems the game has changed. It used to be a hard, fast, tough game, punctuated by pieces of individual brilliance which defined Origin as the epitome of rugby league.

Last night was a good game - low on mistakes, played fast with a few big hits thrown in for good measure. But I felt it lacked the skills of Wally Lewis or Freddy Fittler, and the tough cunning of Benny Elias or Alfie Langer. Or the recklessness of Rodney Howe or even Martin Lang.

It seems to me that in this era of ultra-professionalism all but the very, very best players have lost that creative edge. Our massively over-paid professionals now play a low-risk, high intensity game that seems to rely on consistency over brilliance. We focus too much on the coaches and not enough on the play-makers. Is it becoming more like a game of touch football and less like a gladiatorial contest or have I just grown too cynical in my absense from supporting the game at first hand?

While Jamie Soward set up the match-winning try, he and Mitchell Pearce played a safety-first game, with their major input confined to sweeping kicks for field position. They are capable of so much more. But then again, both know Ricky Stuart’s reputation with halves he doesn’t like. Lockyer led Queensland brilliantly and kicked well, but rarely looked to set up anything adventurous. To be fair, this is a bit of a reach for him now, but Feral Thurston had very little involvement; he seemed strangely subdued for most of the game. Other potential game-breakers (Slater, Inglis, Hayne, Gasnier) were either off their game, didn’t get very involved or both.

On another night, this combination of players may lead to a brilliant game, but it wasn’t the case last night. Given the way the game might be headed, and with playmakers of the ilk of Lockyer and Thurston unlikely to come through again, last night might have been a window to a less-than-optimistic future in Origin.

In Round 14 NRL games:

The Gold Coast finally emerged from their deep hole on Friday night. They played some much more encouraging rugby league and overcame a stubborn but very undermanned Dragons at Kogarah.
Manly rather easily defeated North Queensland on Saturday night. The wet and some significant absences were no barrier whatsoever to Manly and their very consistent play.
Two cracking games were seen on Sunday. First up, Brisbane worked their way to a 24-nil lead before sensationally giving it all back to Canberra in under 10 minutes. Brisbane didn’t completely collapse though and won the game in extra time. Peter Wallace became the sixth player to score twice or more in Golden Point and the first to do it with different teams.
In Auckland, the Warriors surged to a 22-4 lead with a burst of tries after half-time. Incredibly, the Tigers responded with a burst of their own with some amazing attacking play – as well as a dubious try to Beau Ryan – to sneak home with the win.
Finally, Melbourne’s commitment and effort overcame their almost complete lack of structure as they defeated the injury and Origin-hit Roosters 21-4 in a largely lifeless but occasionally spicy game on Monday night.

See you next week.