Round 7: Could the NRL's victims strike a rare blow against their tormentors?

Over the last decade or so, the NRL has been quite successful at bringing an increasing amount of parity to the competition. A quick glance at the list of recent premiership winners confirms this. Still, no matter how far an administrative body goes in the quest for evenness, there will always be some teams who exert an undue amount of dominance over others. Each match in Round 7 featured one team with a long run of success over the other, a matchup where one team's success has altered the psyche of the defeated or a combination of the two.

So, in a competition geared towards parity (or, as Phil Gould says, "the punishment of success"), surely this dominance had to come to an end at some point? The bookmakers thought the downtrodden had a better than average chance of retribution, with 4 of the 6 victims expected achieve success, but any thoughts of some long-overdue revenge were looking surprisingly unlikely just minutes after kickoff at Homebush on ANZAC Day afternoon.

Yes, it was that once-in-three-to-six-weeks freak occurrence: an exemplary Dragons' performance. Their highly-rated but rarely performing forward pack won the battle against a Roosters' pack sure to be plundered by representative teams in coming months: this is a success that can't be claimed by Melbourne or Brisbane this season.

The return of Soward (and, more importantly, his excellent kicking game), Hornby's return to fullback and Young's move to dummy half allowed the Dragons to get the most opportunities from their forward dominance, while their defence was first-rate: despite the one-sided scoreline, most of the statistics indicated a close contest.

In other words, the Roosters had about as much good field position as the Dragons did, but they failed to convert most of this into points. The kicking game of Mitchell Pearce and Braith Anasta - in concert with some athletic outside backs - had yielded significant rewards for the Roosters so far this season, but the organised and equally athletic Dragons' outside backs repelled all of the Roosters' kicking forays.

So the Dragons continued their recent run of dominance over the Roosters, with the win on ANZAC Day giving them 5 wins in the 6 matches between the two teams since the retirement of Brad Fittler.

Just over a month before Brad Fittler's first game of top-grade rugby league, Souths last defeated Brisbane in Brisbane. Obviously, many teams have enjoyed periods of dominance over Souths since their last successful year of 1989, but Brisbane's is better than most.

The corresponding fixture between the two teams last year saw Brisbane grind their way (this has become a cliché over the years, but adequately described the 8-4 result) to a win and this again appeared to be Souths' best chance of success, especially when it was revealed Justin Hodges would be starting from the bench (due to the flu) and when centre Steve Michaels sustained an injury after just a few minutes. If Souths could keep it close while doing their best to tire the ailing and undermanned Broncos, they might have had a chance to win in the game's dying minutes.

Alas, they were never really a chance. Brisbane scored not long after Michaels was taken from the field and their consistent effort was rewarded by a variety of Souths' mistakes throughout the game. Even still, Souths closed the gap late in the game, due to some inspired play and more Brisbane injuries: Brisbane was fielding some players who would have been rested in normal circumstances. However, more Souths' mistakes and a late Brisbane try made the final margin a somewhat unfair 14 points: Souths are (cliché alert) "not far away".

But with an already thin Souths' lineup set to be decimated in Round 8 by a mass demotion for excess alcohol consumption, the cliché looks likely to be trotted out for at least another week.

A seemingly futile wait for success gives Cronulla supporters the motivation to get out of bed (and whinge) every morning. On Sunday, their team took on the Wests Tigers, who hadn't defeated since June 2003. The prospect of seeing their team conjure up a new way to lose to a dominant opponent attracted the largest crowd at Toyota Park in over a year.

Early on, Cronulla almost monopolised possession and seemed certain to finally post a mountain of points. But a funny thing happened: not only did Cronulla post just one try from their extended stay near the Tigers' tryline, but they didn't sap as much of the Tigers' energy as such a stay would have suggested. The Tigers are not renowned as a tireless tackling machine, so it can only be concluded that the monotony and predictability of Cronulla's attack not only doesn't score many points, but doesn't tire opposing defences as much as others do.

Sure, the Tigers looked a little tired at times after their extended defensive effort, but in almost every venture into Cronulla's 20-metre area, their long passing, bodies in motion and offloads looked much more likely to result in points. It was a quick play-the-ball and some smart play from Heighington which saw the Tigers narrow the deficit to 2, then, after a series of Cronulla mistakes, the ever-surprising ball-playing skills of Brett Hodgson set up Chris Lawrence and the Tigers, amazingly, had a half-time lead.

It was Hodgson again who extended the Tigers' lead early in the second half, but Cronulla eventually scored a second try - from perhaps their best set of six tackles (in terms of gaining momentum and quick play-the-balls) in the game - and added a few penalty goals to have a late lead.

While penalty goals add points, Cronulla's two penalty goal options were taken when the Tigers looked vulnerable, especially their last one with under 10 minutes left. Despite Phil Gould's concerns, the Tigers had enough left in the tank to put together a strong set of six. Heighington came within inches of giving the Tigers back the lead, but a Mathew Head grubber from dummy half - in a Farah-like manner - set up Lawrence for the match-winning try and more success for the Tigers over Cronulla.

This year was supposed to be different for Cronulla. They were meant to have focused more on attack, they were supposed to be better prepared to win the close game. But after a great start, they have stalled, really since Round 3. They figure to be without Gallen and Bird for much of the representative season. It hurts to me say it(no, really) but could their annual decline have started so soon?

Melbourne will also be without many of their best over the representative season, amazingly even more so than in previous years. Over their last two years of dominance, they have tormented many teams, including the Cowbores. Prior to early 2006, the Cowbores enjoyed a very good record against Melbourne, but Melbourne's last two wins against North Queensland have been crushing. Not only did they suffocate Feral and Matt Bowen in keeping the Cowbores to 6 and 12 points respectively in those two games, the 58 points their attack put on in Townsville last year was perhaps the most dominant display of last season.

However, the Cowbores were seemingly handed a gift by this year's schedule makers, with Melbourne having to back up from playing in Canberra last Monday night, while the Cowbores were playing their second straight game at home. Canberra also did the Cowbores a favour, forcing Melbourne to play at their best to record a late comeback win. Throw in the Cowbores' resurgence from their early-season malaise and the planets were aligning for some rare Cowbores' revenge.

While the Cowbores clearly performed at a much greater level of intensity than they have this season (and perhaps for a few years), they were also clearly spooked by the speed, relentlessness and force of Melbourne's defence. Feral and Matt Bowen looked uncomfortable for much of the game, as they were often rushed by Melbourne defenders from various angles, while Melbourne's excellent defensive technique resulted in a swathe of Cowbores' dropped ball (aided by the humid Townsville conditions).

But even more things went right for the Cowbores, making Melbourne's task even more difficult. The unfortunate injury to Billy Slater (finally, an appropriate reason to use the Feral moniker!) severely restricted Melbourne's attacking options, while a combination of Cowbores' enthusiasm and a whistle-happy referee saw Melbourne on the wrong end of a heavy penalty count.

All this made Melbourne's victory that much more impressive. After the Cowbores finally scored to cut Melbourne's lead to 6-4, a typical piece of Folau dominance made it 12-4. Although North Queensland made it 12-10 inside the last 10 minutes, they never seriously threatened to score again. Melbourne's defence was incredible and showed few signs of fatigue, despite having many reasons to do so.

Many also expected Manly to show signs of fatigue from a combination of a tough win in difficult conditions on the previous Friday night, a host of injuries and what is notoriously a heavy track at Brookvale Oval. Making Manly's predicament worse was that they were playing perhaps the best team in the league at coming to Brookvale and leaving with 2 points: the Bulldogs.

After the first 10 minutes, the Bulldogs had a 10-nil lead and were looking like good things to make it 5 wins from their last 6 trips to Brookvale Oval. Manly's comeback in the second part of the first half was largely reliant on a host of Bulldogs' mistakes. If the Bulldogs could cut back on their mistakes, another Brookvale win looked likely, especially with Manly expected to tire late on.

By the time Manly eased off, they had a 20-point lead. Their performance given the obstacles in their way was impressive. However, the various representative selectors were not so kind to Manly players and several of them responded yesterday by churlishly dropping out of the City Country game. Good on them: the reasons to dislike Manly list had fallen perilously low in recent years.

Lastly, the second win for the weekend for the downtrodden took place on Sunday afternoon, where the Gold Coast recorded a solid win over the team who gave them the most trouble last season: the New Zealand Warriors. The Warriors' combination of size and mobility caused many problems for the Titans last season, but the improved form of a number of Titans' players - including Scott Prince, Anthony Laffranchi and (over the last two weeks) Preston Campbell - and the heat of Robina overwhelmed the Warriors.

To the Warriors' credit, they didn't capitulate as they did in Townsville last week and probably had the better of the game after falling behind 24-8. Michael Witt was probably the Warriors' best: he had a pivotal role in 3 of the 4 Warriors' tries.

But the Titans' multi-faceted attack was too much. Prince was again very good, but Campbell again made the absence of Mat Rogers a moot point. His involvement from fullback was well-timed and integral to Gold Coast's continued success.

However, one does wonder if the Gold Coast attacking juggernaut is any chance against the relentless defensive machine called Melbourne. Melbourne now has a major mental edge over Manly and the Cowbores: while the NRL has succeeded in making the competition more even, this has also had the effect of making it more difficult for teams to compete with Melbourne. Injuries and the annual post-representative doldrums can slow any good team, but Melbourne look quite likely to continue their dominance over a number of teams and repeat in the NRL for the first time in 15 years.

See you next week.

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Round 6: Heritage Round: Weird Jumpers and Weird Happenings

The 100th anniversary of the first game of Rugby League in Australia saw every team return to their roots in garment form. While the outfits of some teams largely resemble their 2008 look, others were markedly different to their week-to-week garb, due to either significant uniform changes down the years or acknowledgment given to a long-distant precursor from that region.

But accompanying the unusual attire were unusual results or occurrences in most games over the weekend. Some of these were due to the wet weather, but others were…once-in-100 year events (sorry).

Heritage Round kicked off on Friday night with two close games, but two barely believable outcomes. After a relatively solid first few weeks, Parramatta has struggled mightily, as glimpses of their awesome potential have been overwhelmed by their lethargy. They took on the points-challenged but hard-working Sea Eagles. Manly fought hard (and took advantage of some lazy Eels’ play – more on this later) to lead 14-4 in the second half, but within minutes, several of the aforementioned glimpses saw Parramatta take a scarcely deserved lead.

Still, Manly was enduring a major injury toll. At one stage, they had the bare 13 on the field and no reserves available. The speed and intensity of today’s game means that such an impact from injuries means victory is almost impossible. Manly never looked like getting near the Parramatta tryline…until Grothe struck again.

Eric Grothe junior is a mighty ball-runner, but his decision-making in defence and general in-game intelligence is almost non-existent. Throw in several instances of in-game apathy – including his insipid and ultimately futile effort in getting to what should have been a harmless Jamie Lyon bomb before it bounced – and it is not a stretch to say he cost Parramatta what should have been a certain win.

The harmless Lyon bomb became potent once it hit the ground. Manly regained the ball and scored soon after, before holding on for an unlikely win.

Meanwhile, on the Gold Coast, the locals – wearing a bizarre mix of their current uniform and the uniform of the 1988 Gold Coast Giants – jumped to an early 16-0 lead over Brisbane. Gold Coast is playing some of the more impressive rugby league so far this season, but their 3 early tries owed more to very rare Brisbane incompetence than to Gold Coast skill.

The argument could have been made that Brisbane was tired after backing up from a difficult match against Newcastle just 5 days earlier, but this argument held little water as the game went on and the brave Broncos almost came back to snatch an unlikely win. They fought back to 16-8 down at half-time before a length-of-the-field special cut the Titans’ lead to just 2.

The Gold Coast extended their lead back to 12 points, as they again took advantage of Brisbane mistakes, but a late Brisbane comeback – including a try from a rare Scott Prince fumble – came up just short. Prince was again the man of the match, but the contribution from Preston Campbell – who played a Matt Bowen-like role filling in at five-eighth in attack (in place of the suspended Mat Rogers) – was also very important.

More weird jumpers and weird happenings were seen at Cronulla on Saturday night. Cronulla (who looked more like NSW) had a 20-10 lead over Penrith (who brought the Chocolate Soldier look back after a 17-year absence) midway through the second half. However, despite having a significant advantage in possession to that point in the game, playing their first game at home for the season, running with a strong breeze at their back, the incentive of sending Lance Thompson off into retirement with a victory and Penrith repeatedly choosing poor last tackle options, Penrith hung around and eventually came back into the game. What looked like being yet another poor last tackle option was salvaged by some desperate keeping-the-ball alive and a try to Michael Gordon was the result.

Cronulla could have tried for a field goal in this period to extend their lead to seven points, but their failure to even consider this option gave Penrith further impetus. As their pressure mounted, another try was scored and the ensuing difficult sideline conversion from Jarrod Sammut meant Golden Point. After a booming Brett Kimmorley field goal attempt went just wide, Penrith’s momentum looked to be too much. Cronulla charged down their first field goal attempt, but the second from Sammut gave Penrith the win.

To be fair though, a Penrith win against the odds is not really a “weird” happening: they continue to exhibit the seemingly perverse trait of playing much better when most expect them to lose.

That said, Penrith failed to overcome the Roosters last weekend despite most expecting a Roosters win. The Roosters’ size and consistency meant they were strong favourites to win their 4th in a row – and, in doing so, send Newcastle to their 4th straight loss – at the historical Rugby League stronghold of Gosford on Sunday.

Once again, Newcastle’s awesome attacking potential was on display: their sweeping passes combined with their above-average speed and size at most positions. However, they were let down for most of this game by unforced mistakes, poor decision making in attack and conceding too many penalties. The less skilful but smarter and more consistent Roosters took advantage and deserved to lead 20-12 at half-time, much to the enjoyment of the quite vocal band of Roosters’ supporters. Why do these supporters not make as much effort in most other Roosters’ home games?

The game took a curious turn in the first 20 or so minutes of the second half. Newcastle gradually took control of the game – Brisbane was somewhat lucky they built a more significant buffer against the Knights last week – but the scoreboard didn’t change. Almost every time the Knights had the ball, they seriously threatened to breach the Roosters, but a number of tries were squandered due to questionable attacking options. Sure, Newcastle’s second-rowers are skilful, but their supporters (and coach) were understandably frustrated to see them putting in attacking kicks before the last tackle in somewhat normal attacking situations.

But the Roosters’ normally solid game was coming apart at the seams. Their error count was unusually high, meaning they were unable to put any sustained pressure on Newcastle (and therefore unable to give much of a rest to their tiring defence) and they started conceding penalties at important times.

With 12 minutes left, the Roosters looked increasingly likely to hang on, but finally Newcastle’s attack clicked and how: 4 tries in the final 12 minutes. Admittedly, the Roosters tackled themselves into the ground: they barely saw the ball in the game’s final 15 minutes, but it was an impressive end to an entertaining game.

However, the best game of the Heritage Round was played last night in Canberra. The home team (who was missing a host of regular and important players) gave a textbook display of physical rugby league in the first half: they led Melbourne 16-4 at half time. Melbourne should not have been disgraced: few, if any, teams would have survived such an onslaught and while they were not quite at their best, they certainly were not playing poorly, although they should have been concerned at the dominance of Canberra’s Colin Best over their right-side outside backs.

It became apparent in the minutes after half-time that the proud Storm was playing at a higher level, but Canberra was still comfortably in the lead and repelled the Storm’s early efforts. They threatened to put the game out of reach – history shows that once Melbourne concedes 20 points, they are next to no chance of winning – when the aforementioned Best caught a high kick and went towards the corner. But Melbourne’s Billy Slater – who had a relatively poor game (in stark contrast to his career-best form in the early weeks of this season) to that point – made a great effort to just push Best into touch.

This Best no-try possibly showed the limits of video technology – could a more sophisticated recording device have shown continuous footage in between the two frames where Best was poised to put the ball down and when the ball was placed down (with his elbow on the sidelines)? – and it ended up being Canberra’s last chance.

From here, Melbourne’s effort and intensity lifted several notches. Their defence wrested the momentum away from the Canberra forwards, while Melbourne’s attack became more incisive, with Slater assuming a much more dominant role. In addition to moving into dummy half, he constantly looked to exploit gaps in the middle of the tiring Canberra defence.

Slater eventually scored and Melbourne looked a chance of running away with the game: an extremely unlikely possibility in the first half. But Canberra’s effort – and a bit of luck – kept the score at 16-all until a Melbourne field goal. Even after finally assuming the lead, Melbourne’s defensive effort didn’t relent. Canberra was next to no chance of gaining attacking field position, so they gambled with several attacking kick plays, which almost paid off.

When a Cooper Cronk – in the middle of a rare off-night – finally produced an attacking kick which hit the intended target (and a try for Israel Folau), perhaps the best game thus far in 2008 was decided: a 7-point Storm win. They rarely have had to work harder: who would have thought such an effort would be required against an almost second-string Canberra team?

There were three other games in Heritage Round. On Saturday night, it was a rare display from the Dragons. Instead of losing despite showing glimpses of their significant talent, they produced one of the worst efforts seen in many years. The Bulldogs won easily.

Also on Saturday night, the Cowbores thrashed the Warriors in a similar vein to their semi-final mauling from last season. The Warriors showed some signs early on, but were overwhelmed: while their halves (Witt and Rovelli) were unable to do much at all, the Feral / Bowen partnership (back after a two-week absence) dominated.

Lastly, the Wests / Tigers overcame a slow start to beat Souths. Souths may be due, but any team capable of scoring two tries or more looks likely to defeat Souths until their injured stars return.

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Round 5: Queensland: Beautiful one day, Dominating the NRL the next

They've dominated State of Origin over the last two years and their players and teams have been disproportionately represented at the pointy end of the last few seasons. Round 5 in the NRL gave further evidence of Queensland's rise as the dominant rugby league state, starting with Friday night's double-header.

Melbourne, loaded with top-notch Queenslanders including Slater, Smith, Crocker, Folau, Kaufusi, Cronk and Inglis, was ruthlessly efficient in defeating Manly. Slater won his second straight man-of-the-match award and looks set to score an Australian jumper to go along with his cash prize and hat: his aggressive, incisive running - both when returning kicks and in attack - gave Manly problems all game long. However, Storm victories are far from one-man efforts: they outplayed Manly across the park. Their defence shut down Manly's options and reminded everyone - after a two-week hiatus - just how one dimensional Manly's attack can be.

To be fair to Manly though, they are in a very difficult position when they play the Storm at or near full strength. Melbourne and Manly are very similar teams: both rely heavily on playing with greater intensity than their opposition (and using this, via defence and attack, as a basis for victory), both have a heavily structured attack and both teams are micro-managed by very intense and thorough coaches. But Melbourne is more talented than Manly at almost every position. Not surprisingly, the only Manly success against Melbourne in recent years has come when Melbourne was either missing players for looming State of Origin duty or when those players were backing up from State of Origin.

The other Friday night game featured the Gold Coast proving the doubters wrong. Many thought the absence of Luke Bailey would make the already relatively small Titans pack less effective and vulnerable to an overdue Parramatta, but the resilient Titans had other ideas. While most Gold Coast forwards (and the rest of the team for that matter) originally hail from out of Queensland, their solid work provided the platform for occasional Queensland halfback Scott Prince to have another stellar game. Few others would have attempted his long kick at an acute angle early on, which became a 40/20 and led to an early try.

When Prince's sleight of hand deceived several defenders and allowed him safe passage across the try-line early in the second half, Parramatta was down 22-8 despite playing quite well for the most part (certainly better than when they beat Newcastle in Round 3). The 14-point deficit gave Parramatta more impetus and they responded with two tries in fairly quick time, the second a Brett Finch special.

Despite the game-sealing Titans try coming from a clear double movement, they did more than enough to deserve a rare win out of Queensland. Prince's conversion took their lead to a safe 8 points and ensured more pleasant headaches for Queensland selectors.

Queensland's incumbent halfback, the reigning winner of the Dally M and the 5-time winner of the "Australia Says NO" award for making women feel uncomfortable, Feral Thurston obviously paid close attention to Prince's dominant performance on Friday night because he submitted a sublime performance in steering the Cowbores to a close but important win over the Dragons. This was not a stellar Cowbores performance, but it was closer to their standard out of Queensland efforts: a very conservative attacking game plan combined with a solid defensive effort. Their defence wasn't exemplary, but they needed to a lot of it, especially in the first half. Sure, the Dragons were their usual bumbling incompetent selves, but they threatened to open the game on several occasions. Most times, the Cowbores' defence did the job.

The Cowbores' greatest failing in this game was their frequent unforced errors and high number of penalties conceded, especially late in the tackle count, giving the Dragons more attacking chances. The Dragons eventually scored a first-half try (only due to a gargantuan benefit of the doubt) but Feral conjured up a try earlier on out of almost nothing: the Cowbores led 8-6 at the break.

In the early minutes of the second half, the Dragons' dominance of possession turned around and the Cowbores saw some significant time in attack. A far-too-simple try to Watts was followed up by a rare moment (in the game to that point) of attacking brilliance. Feral took the off-load from Carl Webb and sent Ashley Graham to within a metre of the line. Feral and several other Cowbores followed up to significantly outnumber retreating Dragons defence for an easy try to Justin Smith.

As has often been the case over the years, the Dragons produced something near their best after they fell behind by 14. The experiment of playing usual fullback Ben Hornby at dummy half finally showed signs of succeeding, as his speed and a nice pass set up Stuart Webb for a try. This followed a stock-standard Jason Nightingale Australian Rules-style jump to catch the cross kick and score.

But the Dragons couldn't complete the comeback: yet another close, frustrating loss. Despite losing 3 of 4 games so far this season, their points differential is only -3. News emerged on Monday that Mark Gasnier has a calf injury and will miss the next few games. Perhaps his absence will help the team: every change of tactics, strategy or gameplan the Dragons make is centred on getting Gasnier more involved at parts of his game nowhere near as good what he does best (i.e. standing up the opposing centre and setting up his teammates on the back of this). He's not a goal-kicker, he's not a fullback, he's not a dummy-half, he's not a captain, but he's tried to be each of these with little to no success. At least they shelved the five-eighth option. He even played a bit of wing on Saturday night (his original position when he came into grade) and he helped set up the Nightingale try here, but this was probably only done as a response to his calf injury. Don't worry, Dragons' supporters, Round 1 2009 is only 11 months away.

Conversely for Brisbane - Queensland's most successful team - 2009 will bring a new coach and a fair degree of uncertainty. How could this hurt what will likely be a very strong team? On Sunday, Brisbane took on a very aggressive and talented, but also very young Newcastle side. In the first 20 minutes, Newcastle played a brand of free-flowing, long-passing rugby league rarely seen. They ran hard, passed wide and showed no fear or respect for one of the NRL's best teams. They led 8-6 and could very well have led by many more had a few more passes stuck.

Newcastle even exposed some of Brisbane's defensive weaknesses out wide, but the unflappable, extremely well-coached Broncos took it in their stride. They scored 4 tries in the first half, but had very little time with the ball near Newcastle's line. They either broke Newcastle's line and scored straight away or soon after in a very efficient manner. Without Darren Lockyer again, many others stepped up, including former Knight Michael Ennis, Tonie Carroll, the promising Dave Taylor as well as regular stand-out contributors Hunt, Hodges and Peter Wallace.

Newcastle eventually came back into the game but the damage had been done. Many a team would have folded in the face of the onslaught from the aggressive Knights, but the calm and consistent Broncos withstood what was thrown at them and scored a quite good win.

The Warriors - who possess a fairly high number of Queenslanders such as Brent Tate, Grant Rovelli, Michael Luck, Nathan Fien and the injured Steven Price, as well as having a Queensland born and raised commentator in Jason Costigan "Has he got the pace? HAS HE WHAT!" - could also be described in this way, but the Bulldogs' arsenal was nowhere near as potent as Newcastle's. The Warriors started strongly, much like they did against Newcastle last week, before letting the opposition back into the game rather meekly, much like they did against Newcastle last week. Sonny Bill Williams was wreaking havoc out wide, absorbing tacklers before offloading the ball almost as if it was a tennis ball. One such play put Andrew Ryan into open space, before Luke Patten finished off the long-range try.

Early in the second half, the Warriors held a close lead and the Bulldogs were in the middle of a sustained period near the Warriors' line. But the Bulldogs never really threatened. Sonny Bill and Patten are very good players, but they can't do everything: without a good halfback, the Bulldogs are going to struggle to score points against semi-competent defences. The Warriors emerged after this period with their line intact and finished strongly to seal a strong win.

Of the other NRL teams containing little/no Queensland players, the Roosters, Canberra and Cronulla each garnered two points over the weekend. The Roosters' Queensland contingent is only small in number - Nate Myles and the absent Dave Shillington and Danny Nutley (as well as the legendary Arthur Beetson) - but they made do with only one Queenslander (and the absence of several other high-profile players such as Mason and Minichello) to fairly easily dispose of Penrith. Penrith was somewhat unfortunate to have to back up only 5 days after their impressive Monday night demolition of the Tigers and play such a good team, but their first half effort was quite good. As is their way, they play much better as outsiders and an upset looked a solid chance in the first half hour or so.

But from then on, the mistakes slowly crept back into Penrith's game: a professional outfit such as the Roosters was not going to waste these chances. They took a lead to halftime after Penrith chose to pass the ball to a forward (Brendan Worth) for a hit-up only moments after he receiving a head knock from a previous hitup. Not surprisingly, Worth dropped the ball and the Roosters scored from this possession. After the Roosters scored early in the second half, the increased deficit and the effects of playing on Monday night saw Penrith's error and penalty count rise. From here, it was an easy Roosters win.

The Tigers looked set for an easy win after cruising to a 24-10 halftime lead against Canberra on Sunday. The combination of Mathew Head and the other Tigers looked like it had been evolving over many years, rather than a few months at most, while Canberra was listless and was quite lucky to have 10 points beside their name.

But as they do in so many home games, they give the opposing team a first-half head start and gradually reel them back in. An early second half try to Purtell started the comeback, but holding the Tigers out (despite the Tigers having a significant amount of possession) in the middle period of the half likely gave them a much greater impetus and belief they could come back. Lazy defensive play allowed Alan Tongue to cut the Tigers' lead further, before the tiring Tigers' defence and incisive running from Lincoln Withers led Todd Carney into space. Carney fended Chris Lawrence away initially then held off the gaining Lawrence for a spectacular long-range try to give Canberra the lead. A final Tigers' attacking kick was picked up by Purtell, who ran almost the length of the field to ensure Canberra covered the start….I mean sealed a famous victory.

On Monday night, Cronulla outlasted Souths to record their 4th close win of the season. The Man of the Match award from this game went to everyone who attended or watched the whole game: this required vast reservoirs of patience and possibly significant amounts of caffeinated beverages. Sure, Queensland do have the Cowbores, but these teams showcased attacking play without initative, risk or any degree of skill. In an ideal world, teams and games such as this would be taken off showcase timeslots (such as Friday and Monday nights) so the more skilful and entertaining players and teams, such as those from Queensland or including Queenslanders can take their place. See you next week.

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Round 4: Penrith celebrates April Fools almost a week late, as well as continued entertainment from the NRL's other "inconsistents"

While most of the attention in Round 4 of the NRL was quite rightly given to the two blockbuster Friday night games, the plight of the more inconsistent teams is usually more interesting (if only because it is far less predictable.. and also because it provides plenty of material for each Tuesday Roast).

In this week's Roast, the focus will be on New Zealand, Parramatta, St George Illawarra but first up will be the enigmatic Panthers. They gave a brilliant display of wet-weather rugby league - and, in doing so, probably confused and frustrated their supporters and tipsters everywhere - in thrashing the Tigers.

Despite the Tigers being without two of their more important players in Robbie Farah and Dene Halatau and the Tigers' horrible form in the wet, Penrith's inability to sustain far too rare glimpses of their significant potential, their ill-discipline, their lack of concentration at pivotal moments and, above all, their patchy form over the first 3 rounds of the season meant they were still outsiders with the bookmakers going into last night's game. In the game's opening minutes, all too typical Penrith mistakes and penalties gave the Tigers early attacking field position: another early deficit loomed.

But Penrith escaped from their largely self-induced bind trailing only by 2 points, thanks mostly to a committed, aggressive and disciplined defence. They followed this up with 3 well-worked tries in fairly quick time, utilising a combination of simple but aggressive and effective wet-weather play with a touch of their class and athleticism thrown in (Sammut's kick for the flying Michael Jennings).

During this period the Tigers barely got out of their own half. While they missed Robbie Farah and his dummy-half kicking game badly, it would be wrong not to credit the Penrith defence for their persistent and disciplined pressure of the Tigers' kickers all game long.

While the Tigers struggled for effective attack, their effort was still there and they enjoyed long periods attacking the Penrith line, but the Penrith defence remained strong until half-time (despite the occasional error giving the Tigers even more attacking field position).

Penrith's brilliant performance continued well into the second half, despite losing several important players to injury. When a gimpy Rhys Wesser led Michael Gordon across the line early in the second half, Penrith's lead extended to 22 points: an extremely positive outcome in the circumstances.

The Tigers continued to try hard and eventually pulled one try back, but their lack of attacking options and Penrith's continued commitment in defence saw Tigers frustration time and time again. Penrith sealed a famous win late on as the much-maligned Tony Puletua set up Brad Tighe for a long-range try.

For recent Penrith recruit Petero Civoniceva, thrashing the Tigers in the wet would have been fresh in his mind, but for the other Panthers, such an effort probably only existed in their wildest dreams. Usually, one who waits for a silly penalty to be conceded or for an unforced mistake near their own line by the Panthers may not be able to fry an egg, but in this game, such mistakes were far less frequent.

Meanwhile, their attack was very well suited to the conditions. Their defence usually gave them excellent field position to start from, but they kept it mostly simple and attacked the Tigers in a smart way. Sure, avoiding their usual mistakes is often easier when playing with a healthy lead and the Tigers were not at their best, but Penrith has blown many a game before in situations not dissimilar to this.

As a result, Penrith coach Matt Elliott had a wonderful time watching this game, but surely, despite his cheery post-game demeanour, the thought must have crossed his mind "Why can't they play at something close to this level every week?!?!!?". Obviously, Elliott will be hoping his team's display last night was not a late April Fools joke/tease.

The St. George Illawarra Dragons produced a similar display of wet-weather rugby league in Round 2 to defeat the Gold Coast, but this was sandwiched in between far worse efforts in Rounds 1 and 3. Who knew which Dragons would turn up for their game against the resilient, but less niggly than normal (with the absence of the universally disliked Paul Gallen) Cronulla on Saturday night?

One school of thought before this game was that the Dragons would play a more aggressive game given the resolution of their coaching situation earlier in the week. Some figured the chance to impress Wayne Bennett and perhaps jag a contract under him next season would be a significant incentive.

This was seen - to some extent - but not in the way current Dragons coach Nathan Brown would have liked. Their increased effort came through in individual (or plays involving 2 or 3 players) rather than a greater collective effort: big tackles, complex kick plays. But aggressive defence often left gaps as communication was often poor. This was seen in several instances following these risky kicks (where an insufficient chase was seen and gave Cronulla an opportunity to counter-attack) but also in the standard defensive line. Cronulla's first 2 tries came from their left-side attack, where Mark Gasnier was caught out being on a different wavelength to his teammates.

Still, the Dragons looked set to sneak a win. Cronulla had fallen into their 2007 habit of playing down to the level of bad teams. Sure, they can beat Manly and Melbourne, but when the challenge is not of beating a big-time team, they find much-needed intensity difficult to muster.

Luckily for Cronulla, the Dragons gave them every chance to win. A simple attacking set of six tackles, with under 3 minutes to go, would have meant Cronulla had 90 metres to travel - or have to regain a dropout - to have any chance. An inexplicable dropped ball by Justin Poore - when a less riskier play would have sufficed - made things much easier. 60 metres or so down the field, the Dragons were caught short and winger Jason Nightingale rushed in off his wing, only to realise he would not be able to make a play. Still, it took a rare moment of brilliance in this game - from Bryson (son of former St George legend Lord Ted) Goodwin - to complete Cronulla's comeback.

The Dragons were given a reprieve when Luke Covell hooked the game-winning conversion attempt, but the Dragons' propensity for silly mistakes, poor options and ill-discipline - combined with the cut-throat nature of Golden Point extra time - would have given supporters only more heartache. The surprise was that it came so quickly - at the end of the first set of six tackles. Ryles' bone-headed hanging-on to Brett Kearney gave Covell another chance to win the game. Yet another loss for the Dragons when victory was so close...

The New Zealand Warriors have been notorious over the years for similar acts and they almost did it again on Sunday. They were in a much better position game-wise than the Dragons: Newcastle mistakes, silly penalties and a whistle-happy ref gave the Warriors a mountain of possession in the first 20 minutes. They probably should have led by more than 14-nil.

Newcastle's gutsy play over the competition's first 3 rounds has earned them many admirers and significant tipping support for this game, but such a young team is prone to bouts of poor play after playing well over a several-game period. Still, they didn't give up: the half-time deficit of just 2 points was a meritorious outcome for them.

Despite the Warriors extending their lead just after half-time, Newcastle persisted, bringing the deficit back to just 2 points, before a sustained attacking sequence led by the seemingly indefatigable Danny Buderus. In one memorable play, he was involved 3 separate times, taking the play from the right all the way across to the left, before receving the ball back and setting up his winger Benji Marshall-style then wrapping back around, taking the ball again and leading play near the Warriors' try-line.

Soon after, his valiant effort came within centimetres of giving Newcastle the lead. From the next play, the cross-kick floated just over Newcastle centre Keith Lulia's outstretched hand and into the grasp of Warriors winger Patrick Ah Van.

Ah Van returned the ball almost 100 metres to provide a match-winning lead, but Newcastle tried until the very end. Kurt Gidley's serpentine run set up Wes Naiqama to cut New Zealand's lead back to 6, but Newcastle ran out of time and luck. Overall, the Warriors would have been happy bouncing back from a poor effort against Manly last week, but this was too close for comfort: they took an up-and-coming Newcastle side too lightly (although their dominance of possession early on probably exacerbated any initial feelings of complacency).

For traditional early-season stragglers Parramatta, they also would have had any pre-game complacency exacerbated when they found out Cowbores fullback Matt Bowen was to miss their Saturday night game. But Parramatta was always going to struggle as soon as it became apparent the Cowbores forward pack - once highly vaunted, but far too lazy over the last 15 to 20 games or so - was back near its best.

Feral Thurston's early return from injury has been a factor in the Cowbores' poor start to the season, but even more important was their struggling forwards. This was why the Cowbores were leaking points in Rounds 1 to 3 of 2008. When the Cowbores were at their best, players such as Carl Webb, Steve Southern and Luke O'Donnell dominated. Parramatta - and many NRL watchers - were caught off-guard as the "old" Cowbores returned, but they likely would have struggled to win even if the Cowbores were not at their best.

However, this heavy defeat shouldn't cause any problems for the Eels - as they and any number of pundits will tell you. Once the season reaches the cooler months, they'll kick into gear for games such as the Cowbores. It happens every year.

Also caught in annual bad habits is Canberra. In their post-Daley, post-veteran leader years (and even in some of those years), they have struggled mightily to win away from Canberra. Despite occasionly playing some brilliant rugby league in Canberra, they seem rarely able to take this form elsewhere.

It looked a tough task for Canberra to get a win at Robina, but their first-half effort was solid. The much-maligned Colin Best created one try out of nothing, but gave back one try as he (just) stepped out before grounding the ball. Meanwhile, the Gold Coast scored a try after what looked like a forward pass.

But they couldn't sustain their good play and the Gold Coast finished as comfortable winners. This outcome was ensured once Michael Weyman lashed out after being tackled. A long suspension seems likely.. and Mark Riddell is probably the only person disappointed by this.

In stark contrast to much of the rest of Round 4, Friday night provided two excellent games, featuring at least 3 teams for whom inconsistency is unlikely be linked with very often this season. The final score of the much-hyped Roosters Bulldogs match suggested a one-sided affair, but the first 20 minutes of this game was some of the best action in recent memory. Play was at a semi-final level of speed and intensity as both teams threatened on numerous occasions to open scoring.

Sadly, for neutrals, the Bulldogs no longer have the depth to sustain such solid play. Also, their halves (Roberts and Holdsworth) are a notch or two below the NRL's best. Better play from this combination could very well have seen the Bulldogs take a solid lead in the first half.

Once Big Willie crossed the line to open the scoring, the Roosters' juggernaut rolled on and dominated the next 40 or so minutes. They had the edge in the halves, the outside backs (especially for high balls) and the depth in the forwards, but most importantly, they were able to play such a strong game after playing two of the competition heavyweights (Brisbane and Melbourne).

Melbourne showed its class in soundly defeating Brisbane on Friday night, despite taking a belting from Cronulla and the Roosters in the last two weeks. Once again, the final score was probably somewhat unrepresentative of the struggle in this game: Brisbane, despite missing PJ Marsh, Justin Hodges and having a still uncomfortable Darren Lockyer, still gave a very strong account of themselves.

These 3 teams clearly understand the benefits of structure, discipline and teamwork: consistent performance. While they will likely be hardest hit during representative season - and perhaps lose a game or two to the inconsistents - this foundation of consistency will likely see them playing late in September, while the inconsistents lament those all too rare moments. Wayne Bennett will have a LOT of work to do...

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Round 3: It's difficult to be consistent: Instalment I (or how I learned to stop worrying about form and love playing at home)

In the parity-obsessed NRL, putting a series of wins - or even a series of strong performances - together can be a very difficult task.

The ongoing stability in the salary cap (further widening the disparity between wages in the NRL and England/Rugby Union), years of rules changes favouring the combination of improved speed, strength and endurance in NRL players (thus resulting in more injuries and early retirements) and the addition of the Gold Coast Titans have combined to remove between 3 and 5 players from most NRL squads in recent years.

Most of these players fit into the veteran category (as those players nearing the end of their career are more likely to chase $$$ in England or be forced out of the game due to insufficient size/ speed or the wear and tear of injuries), meaning younger - and usually more inconsistent - players are thrust into positions of importance before their time.

As a result, most teams have thinner depth and less experience than in previous eras and even the very best teams can look inferior with just a few injuries.

So playing consistently in today's NRL is difficult enough. But when you're forced to back up after one of the most intense games in recent years, playing at a level near your best is nigh on impossible. Just ask Melbourne and Cronulla.

On Easter Sunday, Cronulla, emboldened by their win at Brookvale in Round 1, travelled to Melbourne and dominated Melbourne in the early minutes. The proud Storm responded in kind after falling behind 14-0 and the semi-final levels of intensity continued throughout the game.

However, the Storm's failure to win this game, despite repeated opportunities, was put down, in part, to the fatigue resulting from Cronulla's early assault.

Given this outcome, the last team Melbourne would have wanted to play in Round 3 was the Roosters. The Roosters may not be the most skilful team in the NRL, but they are among the largest and most intense.

The Roosters' credibility in the Fittler era was established with a thrashing of Melbourne in late 2007; they knew how to play to defeat Melbourne. Like the 2007 game, the Roosters dominated the early minutes, thanks to strong forward play and a lack of errors which gave Melbourne very little to work with (in terms of field position).

However, some excellent last-ditch Melbourne defence and a bit of bad luck meant the Roosters only posted one try during this time. As a result, the game was still up for grabs after the hour mark, when Melbourne finally got some penalties and some significant attacking field position.

They finally crossed the line and remarkably had a chance to win the game (directly due to a refereeing mistake) but the Roosters held on. The lingering effects of Easter Sunday and the size, strength and possession advantage of the Roosters meant it was too difficult for the Storm to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in 2 years.

Cronulla's task on Saturday night was probably not as difficult as Melbourne's, but they were missing two key forwards from a squad not blessed with the depth of the big-name teams and were coming off tough wins over last year's grand finalists. The Gold Coast was coming off a Monday night game - so just a 5-day turnaround - and looked rather lifeless against the Dragons, but returning home gave a boost to their game.

Their forward pack - considered somewhat understrength by many - gave an excellent account of themselves, but it was the typically top-shelf kicking game of Scott Prince and ill-discipline and poor ball control by Cronulla which saw the Coast dominate possession for most of the game.

Cronulla did very well to keep the Coast scoreless to half-time and also to convert a rare opportunity and take a 4-nil lead to the break, but once former Shark Mat Rogers scored the Coast's first try, Cronulla's resistance gave way quickly.

Gold Coast would have been very happy to defeat a highly-ranked opponent, but the challenge for them is to play more like this each week. Or alternatively, to post a significant win away from Robina.

After making back to back preliminary finals in 2005 and 2006, the St George Illawarra Dragons have struggled mightily for consistency. They won back to back games only once in 2007 (from 9 opportunities) despite having some of the best players in the game and defeating preliminary finalists Manly and Parramatta.

Their performance against the Gold Coast last Monday night was not far off their optimum, despite the inclement conditions, and they started their Saturday night game in Canberra in a similar fashion. The Dragons have some of the best kick plays in the NRL: the cross kick for Jason Nightingale early in the tackle count caught Canberra off guard and meant a fast start for the Dragons. Another kick for Nightingale resulted in another try and a 14-6 lead late in the first half.

But Canberra, while not of the same skill level as most teams they play, are usually more committed than their opponents and that was the case in this game. More often than not they took advantage of Dragons' mistakes or penalties and their 2 first-half tries were more due to effort (and some lazy Dragons' defence) than brilliance or execution.

With the game up for grabs early in the second half, Canberra, as they often do at home, continued to grind their way towards a win. They smartly attacked Dragons' halfback Jamie Soward in the defensive line and came away with two fairly soft tries early in the second half to take a 20-14 lead.

While a young team like Canberra is also prone to inconsistency, they were fortunate enough to win in Penrith last week (despite playing poorly for much of the game) but also to be playing at home for the first time in 2008. They had chances to put the Dragons away earlier, but finally did so in the last two minutes.

The Dragons have now won just 2 of their last 11 games against Canberra and lost their last 6 games at Bruce Stadium. Dragons' supporters must wish Canberra could show at least some inconsistency against their team.

Much like how Canberra backed up a sloppy win with victory over a high-flying opponent, the Bulldogs disposed of the Wests Tigers on Sunday afternoon. The Bulldogs looked extremely vulnerable for long periods against the hapless Bunnies on Good Friday, but finished with what can now be viewed as a morale-boosting win.

Despite trailing at half time and having only a 2-point lead with about 25 minutes left, the Bulldogs looked far better than the listless Tigers. The Tigers stayed close due to a solid effort, but a combination of being out of sync, having difficulty backing up after a very good win in steamy Townsville and the Bulldogs' persistence in attack and defence meant a 3rd win to start the season was always quite unlikely.

That said, most of the game's breaks seemed to fall the Bulldogs' way. Getting limbs in the way of grubber kicks can lead to a wide variety of outcomes, but for Sonny Bill Williams, his two grubber-kick stops led to important Bulldogs' possession and a long-range try respectively. Also, one of the many Tigers' mistakes deep in attack - a dropped ball by Todd Payten - fell fortuitously to Andrew Ryan, who returned the ball back over half-way.

Bulldogs' supporters, in response, would probably point to a long-range try being called back for a questionable forward pass, repeated Daniel Holdsworth dropped ball and the usually reliable Hazem El Masri missing 2 shots at goal.

In the end, the Bulldogs were deserved winners. A matchup against the Roosters will provide a further test for them, but the Tigers will be left wondering what might have been, after they systematically dismantled a much-stronger Bulldogs lineup in 2007. Brett Hodgson and Robbie Farah's less than 100% status probably didn't help here, but Tim Sheens would have loved an experienced mind (and body) to guide his team around on Sunday and remind them of how they achieved past success against the Bulldogs.

Experience in the playmaking positions didn't seem to count for much in Brisbane on Friday night, where suddenly-young Broncos (minus Karmichael Hunt and Darren Lockyer) took on the Cowbores and their established playmaking partnership on Feral Thurston and Matt Bowen.

The Cowbores enjoyed some significant attacking possession in the first 20 minutes or so of this game, but desperate and intense Brisbane defence (featuring the possibly stupid but very brave Ben Hannant) kept them to just 2 points.

From here, Brisbane - guided around by the 23-game veteran Peter Wallace - took control. Wallace's kicking game provided field position, a repeat set and then the first try. This was apparently enough for the Cowbores, who capitulated, but Brisbane deserve much credit for their brilliant performance without their two best attacking players.

It is a shame we won't get to see how the 2008 Broncos evolve, as the departure of Wayne Bennett at season's end and the probable departure of a number of fringe or up-and-coming players (to facilitate the salary of newly-signed Israel Folau) will mean a much different look from 2009 onwards. Still, there are 23 rounds plus the finals series to watch on and admire what could be perhaps the best Wayne Bennett coaching job.

Friday night's other game featured another coach who could be in the early stages of a rebuilding job (with similar eventual success) as Bennett. Brian Smith came under significant pressure last season - from the media, fans and even his own players - for his unsubtle gutting of the Newcastle Knights' playing roster. But 3 games into the season and Newcastle now looks a team on the rise, despite the absence of hard-working veteran Steve Simpson.

That said, Newcastle is now a much younger team and this was seen on Friday as they took on Parramatta, especially on the defensive end, where Parramatta - whenever they had their minds on the job - looked very dangerous.

But the slow-starting Eels were almost as bad without the ball. Eric Grothe was caught out a number of times incorrectly choosing his moment to come in off his wing. Who says experience makes for smarter plays and a higher standard of play??? Despite having been in the NRL since 1999, Grothe looks like he could play until he's 50 and still not understand the basics of defending on the wing.

This game could have almost had a basketball or AFL scoreline were it not for handling errors and some desperate last-ditch defence, but while Newcastle was unable to stop Parramatta, Parramatta seemed disinterested in stopping Newcastle at times. Michael Hagan suggested the tough game against the Warriors last Sunday made this a difficult contest for them, but after years of slow season starts by the Eels, it's hard to give his theory too much credence.

Even when Newcastle took a deserved 22-20 lead late on, Parramatta's play showed few signs of intensity. They equalised via a penalty, before Newcastle took the lead again with a field goal.

After the scoreboard knotted, Newcastle seemingly had the edge: their impressive young halves combination of Mullen and Dureau are both more than adequate field goal kickers, but in the end they were shown up by...Nathan Cayless?! His left-foot special not surprisingly was unexpected by Newcastle and tied the game again.

Finally, Newcastle showed their age, as they executed another field goal attempt poorly and failed to get a shot at all from the ensuing dropout. Then, a simple dropped ball from a curious Parramatta kick gave Parramatta the chance to win the game.

It was an opportunity lost for Newcastle, but Brian Smith would have budgeted for his young team to do some learning as this season progresses. Michael Hagan on the other hand... well, he would give a measured response and decide to keep things the same as his predecessor had them.

Despite enjoying a strong reputation in the NRL coaching fraternity prior to arriving at Penrith, Matthew Elliott risks being tarred with a similar brush. In the latter years of John Lang's tenure at Penrith, rampant inconsistency (and significant potential) made Penrith an increasingly frustrating venture for supporters and tipsters alike. Elliott was supposed to be a fresh face, a new voice who would put life into the players and bring the 2003 premiers back into contention.

Instead, if anything, Elliott has taken the Panthers backwards. A team with the potential of Penrith should have thrashed the injury-hit Raiders in Round 2. For 20 minutes or so, they dominated, but putting back to back 20 minute periods, let alone halves or games, is too much for Penrith.

With the arrival of the struggling Souths, surely Penrith couldn't blow it again and in doing so lose their ELEVENTH consecutive game as favourites with the bookmakers? They did give it their best shot - to win and to lose. Perhaps the best example of wasted potential on the Panthers, Frank Pritchard, teased supporters again by tearing up Souths' right-side defence and being primarily responsible for their 22-6 halftime lead.

Then came the inevitable letdown. Another mistake-riddled second half let Souths back into the game, but Penrith did just enough (or didn't do just enough, depending on your perspective). Souths showed signs of their 2007 play, but some untimely errors and penalties allowed a Penrith escape.

Penrith is sure to be outsiders with the bookmakers for their Round 4 clash with the Tigers, but this can often be the best time to tip them. Watch as they will likely give a much better account of themselves when few expect them to perform well.

After Manly's unusually slow start to the season, expectations were high that they'd record their first win last night against the Warriors, but not perhaps as high as they should have been. Some seriously thought Manly could be 0 wins and 3 losses, with 2 losses at Brookvale.

New Zealand started somewhat promisingly, but the injury to David Vaealiki was a blessing in disguise for Manly, as it meant a move back to his natural position (centre) for Jamie Lyon. Lyon was far more effective than in previous weeks, but his move nearer to the perimeter of the field was joined by a much more aggressive Manly attack. Orford turned back the clock and took on the defence with his running game, Stewart got much more involved from the back while Watmough caused problems on the edges of the Warriors' defence.

It took over 15 minutes, but Stewart's first try from a well-worked scrum play was quickly joined by two tries from winger Michael Robertson (after excellent work from Orford and Lyon respectively). Robertson went on to score a third try in the second half. One can only imagine the celebrations in Manly dressing rooms after the game. Let's hope, for the kids out there, that these celebrations aren't uploaded to YouTube...

With their long-lost confidence back, Manly went on to smash the Warriors, who most likely suffered from playing their first two games against difficult opponents and in very warm conditions.

So that brings an end to Round 3, where early season inconsistency was widely seen, but also where the home teams won every game (for only the 4th time since 2002). Obviously, there is a fairly strong link between early season inconsistency and playing at home, but to expect this link to remain consistent for too much longer is probably asking a bit much of many teams.

See you next week.

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What's wrong with (insert name of 2007 preliminary finalist)?

Melbourne, Manly, North Queensland and Parramatta: each of these teams played on the last weekend in September in 2007 and has been amongst the upper echelon teams in the NRL over the last 3 years. So why is it that these teams have a combined two wins thus far in 2008?

Let's start with Manly. The departure of Michael Monaghan - with the less skilful (in attack) Matt Ballin as his replacement - has been pointed to by most as a key reason behind Manly's winless record thus far, especially given their relatively meagre points scored tally.

But a glance at the stats reveals Manly's attack was never really that potent. Over the last 3 seasons, Manly has scored under 20 points in 10, 12 and 10 games respectively. So even when Matt Orford came to the club in 2006 (giving an extra attacking option), the number of games where Manly scored under 20 points actually increased.

Manly's defence improved significantly in 2007. Whereas they had only 8 and 10 games where they conceded under 20 points in 2005 and 2006 respectively, they had sixteen sub 20 point games in 2007 - and won ALL of them.

In 6 of these games, Manly also scored under 20 points. So, in 2007, Manly had a perfect 6 wins and 0 losses in games where both they and their opponent scored under 20 points (their controversial win over Newcastle in late 2006 meant Manly had a 7-game winning streak in games where both teams scored under 20 points prior to Round 1 2008).

So why have Manly lost their first 2 games in 2008, two tight low-scoring games which they thrived in last year? The loss of Monaghan is certainly a factor, but not nearly as important as many would have you believe.

A reason behind Manly's success over the last 3 years was simply that they worked harder than other teams. This was part of the legacy of the great Ben Kennedy, but also due to the club's emphasis on fitness (with the infusion of Delmege money allowing them to experience improved training infrastructure facilitating this). Often, Manly would be involved in a tough, even game but their superior strength, fitness, endurance or desire would be enough to get them home.

But in the first 2 rounds of this season, Manly seems to have come back to the pack in this area. There could be several reasons behind this, including the completion of their transition from the hunter to the hunted (and hence the motivation to work extremely hard on fitness being more difficult to maintain), the combination of the new interchange rules and the relatively lumpy nature of several Manly forwards, but also that they came up against two very motivated teams.

Manly's efforts have usually been good enough against similarly motivated teams in the past, but it's difficult in the parity-obsessed NRL to maintain such dominance over an extended period. In addition to Monaghan, Manly lost Chris Hicks, Travis Burns and are without Steve Matai at present.

Still....they really should have beaten Newcastle on Saturday night, despite Newcastle dominating possession for much of the game and Newcastle's persistent effort and intensity. Manly was somewhat unlucky to have several tries disallowed, but their approach to attack in this game was too conservative (despite the slippery conditions). Sightings of Brett Stewart, Anthony Watmough or Steve Menzies with the ball near the try-line were very infrequent.

Nevertheless, their defence was very solid and they had a 10-point lead inside the final 20 minutes. Former Newcastle sloth Josh Perry gave his former team two chances to tie the game late, first with a headbutt in a scrum, then with a dropped ball/overrun.

Even after Newcastle's Richard Fa'aoso tied the game, Manly had other chances to feast on Newcastle's inexperience and poor decision-making. Newcastle's option to run the ball on the last tackle in Golden Point could very well have blown up in their face, but Matt Orford's strip of the ball from Mullen gave Newcastle field position to win the game.

While adjusting to life without a second main attacking option will continue, Manly are not far away from their 2007 form. So long as they can maintain their intensity, their main point of emphasis in coming weeks should be for an attacking scheme with more variation and to also emphasise the proven threats of Stewart, Watmough and Menzies.

In contrast, North Queensland's defence has been absymal in 2008. Even compared to the final 18 games of last season, when their backrow was being held together by little more than Paddle Pop sticks and glue, they conceded more than 30 points only 5 times in their final 18 games. So conceding over 30 points in the season's first 2 games with their backrow back is...concerning (especially given that the Cowbores are usually fast starters to a season).

But their loss to the Tigers on Saturday night also featured a rather anaemic attacking effort. Feral Thurston had a solid game, but Matt Bowen only just outplayed Brett Hodgson (the heavily concussed version). The Cowbores were crying out for an attacking spark, but Bowen was nowhere to be found. Travis Burns tried hard but received very little ball, but almost every Cowbore contributed to a massive error count. To compound matters, most of these dropped balls or penalties whilst in possession (yes, I'm looking at you Luke "Slapper" O'Donnell) occurred near the Tigers' line.

The Cowbores dominated possession for much of the game, but scored only two tries altogether, then allowed the injury-hit Tigers to score with relative ease. Even when the Tigers were one man down in the aftermath of Slapper's stupid act, the Cowbores failed to trouble the scorer and surrendered meekly. Liam Fulton's re-enactment of Brett Kenny's match-sealing 1981 Grand Final try ended a miserable night for the Cowbores. They are the 2007 preliminary finalist with the most work to do.

Melbourne lost their first game at Olympic Park since late 2006 (and only the 12th time in 149 games in the team's history where they've lost while conceding less than 20 points) on Sunday afternoon. While they've had to endure a similar number of player losses as Manly, the players Melbourne lost during the off-season were not as important and their replacements are of a better quality (compared to Manly's).

Instead, Melbourne's problems are with injuries and with the aforementioned problem of sustaining a dominant performance becoming more difficult with each year in the parity-obsessed NRL. Cronulla gave the Storm their best shot - both figuratively (with the ball) and literally (with some hard-hitting defence) - and shocked the Storm to lead 14-0 early on.

Melbourne managed to come back to level the scores, but couldn't finish the job. Their composure and ability to win the close games - so good in 2006 and 2007 - faltered here. They failed to execute in a number of easy field-goal situations, whereas Cronulla - the close-game loss kings of 2007 - converted a field goal on their first attempt.

The very high level in intensity for much of this game - in addition to the almost-certain suspension of Brett White for his taking the law into his own hands (or fists) - could impact upon Melbourne over the next few weeks, but as they recover and get players such as Inglis, Crocker and Kaufusi back, they should be fine.

Of the 2007 preliminary finalists, Parramatta would feel the best at present. They are slow starters and usually capitulate under pressure, but their comeback win over the Bulldogs and a promising effort (despite what the scoreboard said) against the Warriors on Sunday are good signs for the year ahead.

They were without Nathan Hindmarsh on Sunday. A poor performance usually follows any announcement of his absence, but the team largely played well. Their main fault was a number of errors or plays giving the Warriors extra possession, usually in good field position, but most of these were the result of bad luck or good Warriors play.

In just his 2nd game at 5/8th, Feleti Mateo directed traffic, set up a try, came close to setting up several others, kicked well and looked like a veteran in the halves, while Jarryd Hayne had an excellent first game of the season. Some of the ball movement and athleticism (following very quick play-the-balls) was almost scary, but the Warriors are a difficult prospect in Auckland on a sunny Sunday afternoon. As Parramatta get their injured players back and move towards better and more consistent play, a successful season beckons.

The same can probably be said for the Roosters and Brisbane, traditional Good Friday night combatants. While the Roosters easily accounted for Souths last week, Brisbane was unlikely to be similarly swept aside. The Roosters' size and strength won the first half but they were a touch unlucky not to be further than 6 points in front, while Braith Anasta's unfortunate stumble in Karmichael Hunt's shoulder significantly reduced his impact on the remainder of the game.

But it was Brisbane's composure, structure and excellent gameplan which saw them control the second half. In contrast, the Roosters were put off by an opponent who didn't submit to their power: they appeared not to have a fall-back option in attack. Their effort was gallant, but they played as if they were far more than just 6 points behind. Brisbane skilfully utilised their quick players, to tire the Roosters' huge forward pack whilst gaining metres, then used their bigger men selectively. This was topped off by an excellent kicking game and general display of leadership from Peter Wallace.

In contrast, South Sydney and the Bulldogs served up a tight but poor-quality game across town on Friday night. These two teams look set for a difficult early 2008, although for quite different reasons. Souths dominated most of the first half but only had 12 points to show for it. Matt Utai's late try cut the lead to 6, but his injury-induced exit from the game eliminated an avenue for South Sydney points (his sternum injury made his usual weakness under the high ball an outright liability).

The Bulldogs' comeback continued, but it was hardly award-winning attack. However, the ongoing absence of Souths' solid 2007 defence (although Souths' unusual interchange pattern may have had something to do with this) saw the Bulldogs catch then overtake Souths, but any time Souths attacked, they looked a chance against the immobile Bulldogs' defence. The Dogs held on, summoning their experience, but it was an unconvincing game all round.

Luckily for these two teams, Penrith and Canberra were far worse in the early Saturday game. These two teams, on their day, are capable of far more than Souths or the Bulldogs, but the incredible amount of inconsistency, poor play and mistakes... Penrith played roughly 20 minutes of solid rugby league in this game and probably should have led 22-12 at the end of it. Brash youngster Jarrod Sammut continued the impressive start to his NRL career, this time at half-back, driving the Panthers' attack.

Two bone-headed plays by Paul Aiton cost Penrith Sammut's excellent try and a late penalty, so a 10-point lead was instead just a 2-point lead. But the 2nd half...it was bone-headed plays galore. Penrith rarely ventured out of their own half due to self-induced mistakes, while Canberra could only convert this glut of quality field position into one try. The slippery conditions and more Canberra injuries contributed somewhat to this mess of a game, but most players involved should deny involvement in this game if ever questioned about it.

Further embarrassment was heaped upon Penrith and Canberra players after the Dragons and Titans played in far worse conditions on Monday night but recorded far fewer mistakes. But surely the greatest shock of the night was the Dragons playing at a level nearing their potential for much of this game. For once, their gameplan was mostly executed, their plays were run well (especially in their kicking game) and it was the opponent who was ill-disciplined and gave away silly penalties.

While this rare display of excellent play from the Dragons will provide immediate satisfaction for supporters, job security for coach Nathan Brown and a basis for future weeks, in reality this is the NRL's version of the poisoned chalice. Despite ever-increasing resources being devoted to improving the level of play around the league, the number of teams exhibiting sustained consistent play remains roughly the same and is being pressured by the feasible but low salary cap, the continued growth in the speed and intensity of the game (and the impact of these on premature career ends) and the relative attractiveness of England and Rugby Union.

On those rare occasions when a highly talented but mentally unstable team (the best examples of which are the Dragons, Panthers, Warriors and, to a lesser extent, Parramatta, but almost all teams bar Melbourne and Brisbane suffer from this phenomenon at some point) performs near its best, this only leads to frustration when subsequent displays are not near this level. Frustration from players, supporters, administrators, but most importantly tipsters. There are many tipsters hurting badly after Round 2, as their visions of highly rated teams performing well were almost all not realised.

How difficult can it be to tip in recent years? Despite winning the wooden spoon last year and being thrashed in Round 1, Penrith's loss on Saturday night made it TEN consecutive games (back to late 2006) where they've lost despite favouritism with the bookies.

Frustration is more evident amongst the 2007 preliminary finalists than it has been for some time, but their fortunes should improve from here. North Queensland are in the worst position amongst the four: their trip to Suncorp Stadium on Friday could even be a season-determining game. Stay tuned...

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Round 1: New Season, New Players, Same Old Issues

While Round 1 of the 2008 NRL season provided us with some examples of teams who clearly put their off-season to good use, or teams with a solid and well established structure who continue to perform at a high level, more teams seemed further away than ever from overcoming significant barriers to any form of success.

The worst offender here - which shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone familiar with early-season play since the turn of the millennium - was the St. George Illawarra Dragons.

Some Dragons' supporters pay scant attention to their team's form before Round 5 or 6 in any given season, such is their tendency to start slowly.

But their slow starts were less of an issue when they had a higher quality playing roster and better depth. The 2008 Dragons appears to be a shadow of previous Dragons' sides, but judging from Sunday's largely inept display against the Tigers, they seem to be at least a match when it comes to bone-headed play.

Mistakes were seen on both sides of the ball and throughout much of the game, giving the Tigers a significant advantage in possession, which was converted into field position and then points.

While the Tigers had the edge in quickness and ball skills in most positions (which they used to attack the size advantage of the Dragons), they showed little ability to cope with the Dragons' size during any sustained Dragons' attacking period. Fortunately for the Tigers, the Dragons' generally poor play and poor decision-making with the ball meant their patchy defence was asked few difficult questions.

Still.. the Dragons lost by just 8 points. It was an incredibly frustrating afternoon for new and old Dragons alike, as this photo of Trent Barrett as he was watching the game shows.



But it was hardly a day of celebration for the Tigers. While they did well to win despite losing Benji Marshall very early on, there was plenty of room for improvement, especially on the defensive end.

Another much-maligned team from 2007 - the Penrith Panthers - also took the field on Sunday afternoon. While the Dragons went with largely the same team from last season, Penrith made some major signings, aimed mostly at filling their rather large gulf in the areas of experience and on-field leadership. Therefore, they would have expected to be competitive with Brisbane.

While the final 48-12 scoreline in Brisbane's favour would suggest a black day for Penrith, they were very much in the game for most of the first half. A try incorrectly awarded to Brisbane's Ben Hannant (clearly offside) and an intercept return just before half time made the margin a somewhat unrepresentative 16 points to Brisbane at the half. Most teams would have surrendered to persistent Brisbane pressure like the Panthers did in the second half.

However, Penrith's tendency to concede unnecessary and ill-timed penalties - a feature of their 2007 season - was back in this game, as was their historical penchant for letting good players sign elsewhere during periods of little success.

Facing up to Penrith on Sunday afternoon was Peter Wallace, a young halfback who was very impressive for Brisbane, but also showed significant potential for Penrith in previous years. Letting Wallace and Craig Gower leave and signing only Joe Williams to replace them could ruin Penrith's season, much like allowing Brad Drew to leave in 2000 (he went on to play a pivotal role in Parramatta's attacking juggernaut in 2001) helped to consign Penrith to several years in the NRL wilderness in the early 2000s.

That said, Penrith won a premiership in 2003 and there is talk of some highly talented halves still to emerge through the junior ranks for the Panthers.

But Brisbane are surely very happy to have signed such a potentially great halfback to play next to the best five-eighth in the game and in one of the best systems in the NRL. Brisbane has always felt much wrath from supporters of other teams due to the near-monopoly they have for any players wanting to play in Qld, as well as consistent suspicions of salary cap cheating. But these feelings have eased somewhat, as other clubs have shared in top-shelf Qld talent and salary cap concerns saw a host of star players leave at the end of last season.

Despite these departures, as well as the return from injury of Darren Lockyer, the new-look Broncos played as though they had been together for many years. They may not have the depth or the quality to win the competition this year, but could 2008 finally be the year Wayne Bennett's setup in Brisbane gets the respect it deserves?

The emergence of the Cowbores and the (re)introduction of a team on the Gold Coast have played a major role in reducing the influence of the Broncos in Qld: these teams squared off in an entertaining game on Friday night. The shock return from injury of Feral Thurston saw the Cowbores almost move into favouritism for this game, but their still-patchy defence and over-reliance on Thurston for attacking spark meant they were always struggling in this game. Their porous defence from last season was seen again in this game, despite the return of their usually strong defensive back-rowers (O'Donnell and Southern).

But the Cowbores would have beaten a fair number of NRL teams with their display here: they were unfortunate to run into a Titans team close to the top of their game. The Titans were very impressive in their debut match last season and were even better in this game. Scott Prince gave Tigers' fans more 'What might have been' with a brilliant game (we can only hope the traitor's wife is happy), while the seemingly tireless Luke Bailey must be relishing every day since he left the Dragons.

While the Titans and Cowbores provided an entertaining and high-quality game, the same couldn't be said for the first game on Friday night, where the Roosters took on traditional rivals Souths. This loomed as a potentially very interesting game, with the size, size and more size of the Roosters against the defensive grit and speed of Souths. The new interchange rules and a humid night figured to give Souths an edge in the latter minutes of both halves as long as they could absorb what was bound to be an onslaught from the Roosters.

Instead the game was largely a non-event. We'll never know if Souths' lack of resistance was significantly influenced by Craig Wing's injury. Whatever the cause, the stingy Souths' defence of 2007 was a distant memory. The Roosters' forwards and some nice attacking options were impressive, but their match-winning lead came far too easy.

On Saturday afternoon, also at Homebush, Bulldogs' supporters were probably thinking their 20-nil lead over Parramatta was a match-winning one and that it came quite easily. It seemed Parramatta's bad habit from 2007 of taking lowly rated teams far too easily was back again. While Parramatta always seem capable, their 2nd half efforts after poor first halves in 2007 suggested a sizeable Bulldogs' victory looked the only outcome in this one.

Instead, this was a landmark game for Parramatta. They didn't panic and try to catch up the 20-point deficit straight away. They built slowly, completing their sets and getting the edge in field position. They then attacked the short Bulldogs' wingers and crept back into the game. The large Bulldogs' forward pack tired as Parramatta came back into the game, creating more opportunities.

A stalemate was reached as Parramatta came to within 2 points of the Bulldogs, but the next try was always going to be enough and a fortuitous Mateo try sealed the win in the last minute.

It was difficult to fault the Bulldogs: they don't appear to have the talent or the mobility in the forwards to contend with a lot of teams this season, but Steve Folkes probably erred somewhat in keeping Michael Sullivan on the bench for so long. Folkes probably thought they didn't need points, they needed Corey Hughes' leadership and defence at 20-nil up. But Sullivan's speed could well have taken the Bulldogs' lead to an unapproachable level.

It appeared as though Newcastle was about to suffer the same fate as the Bulldogs in the late Saturday game. Their solid lead over the gritty (but injury-hit.. for yet another season it seems) Raiders was evaporating quickly late in the game. While the Knights are now a significantly different team than they were when Brian Smith first took over as coach, they still seem to possess an ability to grind out wins at home. It is only Round 1 of course, but these 2 teams look set for tough seasons.

The same cannot be said for the remaining four teams. Manly and Cronulla look set for positive seasons, although it appears Manly may have to follow Cronulla's low-scoring path to victory more often than they have in previous years. The departure of Michael Monaghan and Travis Burns means Matt Orford is now responsible for creating most of Manly's attacking options. The foundation of Manly's success in recent years has been their relentless intensity, but their versatility in also being able to compete (and more often than not win) in high-scoring contests took them to a grand-final last season. They may get back there this season, but unless they can unearth someone to take the pressure off Matt Orford, scores like 16-10 may become much more common for Manly.

Cronulla could probably also use a Michael Monaghan. They are clearly capable at winning the low-scoring grind, but it is extremely difficult to bring this level of defensive intensity each week. They need to find some points for those games where the intensity is not quite there: Cronulla surely doesn't need any more reminding of their lengthy losing streak last season, when teams more or less matched their intensity, but had a few more points in them. Still, it looks like if Cronulla can have more luck with injuries, they should have a much better year than in 2007.

It took 5 years into Craig Bellamy's reign as coach of the Melbourne Storm, but in 2007, they finally figured out how to channel their intensity to win games when they needed to. They never really had Cronulla's point-scoring problems, but they did struggle when teams matched their intensity (usually folding like deckchairs) then they discovered they just couldn't maintain their intensity all season long (in 2006).

But now, despite the salary-cap induced departures of a number of key players as well as some significant players missing through injury, they've rarely looked better. Not so much in their play against the Warriors (they let the Warriors back into the game late in the first half) but that their team structure is stronger than ever. Each of the new/young players for Melbourne in last night's game clearly knew his role and performed strongly.

In the end, Melbourne won well. After an impressive first half in the heat, the Warriors made life significantly easier for Melbourne in the second half: 3 kickoffs soaring across the dead-ball line is truly Scarecrow-ish play. The Warriors' predicament was perhaps best exemplified by winger Manu "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" Vatuvei. When he is asked by the opposition to perform complex tasks such as catching, he is often made to look foolish, but with ball in hand and momentum increasing, there is perhaps not a scarier sight for a defender.

This combination of awesome potential and a tendency for the most basic of mistakes would make Vatuvei feel right at home outside Gasnier (or maybe Cooper)...

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