Melbourne, Manly, North Queensland and Parramatta: each of these teams played on the last weekend in September in 2007 and has been amongst the upper echelon teams in the NRL over the last 3 years. So why is it that these teams have a combined two wins thus far in 2008?
Let's start with Manly. The departure of Michael Monaghan - with the less skilful (in attack) Matt Ballin as his replacement - has been pointed to by most as a key reason behind Manly's winless record thus far, especially given their relatively meagre points scored tally.
But a glance at the stats reveals Manly's attack was never really that potent. Over the last 3 seasons, Manly has scored under 20 points in 10, 12 and 10 games respectively. So even when Matt Orford came to the club in 2006 (giving an extra attacking option), the number of games where Manly scored under 20 points actually increased.
Manly's defence improved significantly in 2007. Whereas they had only 8 and 10 games where they conceded under 20 points in 2005 and 2006 respectively, they had sixteen sub 20 point games in 2007 - and won ALL of them.
In 6 of these games, Manly also scored under 20 points. So, in 2007, Manly had a perfect 6 wins and 0 losses in games where both they and their opponent scored under 20 points (their controversial win over Newcastle in late 2006 meant Manly had a 7-game winning streak in games where both teams scored under 20 points prior to Round 1 2008).
So why have Manly lost their first 2 games in 2008, two tight low-scoring games which they thrived in last year? The loss of Monaghan is certainly a factor, but not nearly as important as many would have you believe.
A reason behind Manly's success over the last 3 years was simply that they worked harder than other teams. This was part of the legacy of the great Ben Kennedy, but also due to the club's emphasis on fitness (with the infusion of Delmege money allowing them to experience improved training infrastructure facilitating this). Often, Manly would be involved in a tough, even game but their superior strength, fitness, endurance or desire would be enough to get them home.
But in the first 2 rounds of this season, Manly seems to have come back to the pack in this area. There could be several reasons behind this, including the completion of their transition from the hunter to the hunted (and hence the motivation to work extremely hard on fitness being more difficult to maintain), the combination of the new interchange rules and the relatively lumpy nature of several Manly forwards, but also that they came up against two very motivated teams.
Manly's efforts have usually been good enough against similarly motivated teams in the past, but it's difficult in the parity-obsessed NRL to maintain such dominance over an extended period. In addition to Monaghan, Manly lost Chris Hicks, Travis Burns and are without Steve Matai at present.
Still....they really should have beaten Newcastle on Saturday night, despite Newcastle dominating possession for much of the game and Newcastle's persistent effort and intensity. Manly was somewhat unlucky to have several tries disallowed, but their approach to attack in this game was too conservative (despite the slippery conditions). Sightings of Brett Stewart, Anthony Watmough or Steve Menzies with the ball near the try-line were very infrequent.
Nevertheless, their defence was very solid and they had a 10-point lead inside the final 20 minutes. Former Newcastle sloth Josh Perry gave his former team two chances to tie the game late, first with a headbutt in a scrum, then with a dropped ball/overrun.
Even after Newcastle's Richard Fa'aoso tied the game, Manly had other chances to feast on Newcastle's inexperience and poor decision-making. Newcastle's option to run the ball on the last tackle in Golden Point could very well have blown up in their face, but Matt Orford's strip of the ball from Mullen gave Newcastle field position to win the game.
While adjusting to life without a second main attacking option will continue, Manly are not far away from their 2007 form. So long as they can maintain their intensity, their main point of emphasis in coming weeks should be for an attacking scheme with more variation and to also emphasise the proven threats of Stewart, Watmough and Menzies.
In contrast, North Queensland's defence has been absymal in 2008. Even compared to the final 18 games of last season, when their backrow was being held together by little more than Paddle Pop sticks and glue, they conceded more than 30 points only 5 times in their final 18 games. So conceding over 30 points in the season's first 2 games with their backrow back is...concerning (especially given that the Cowbores are usually fast starters to a season).
But their loss to the Tigers on Saturday night also featured a rather anaemic attacking effort. Feral Thurston had a solid game, but Matt Bowen only just outplayed Brett Hodgson (the heavily concussed version). The Cowbores were crying out for an attacking spark, but Bowen was nowhere to be found. Travis Burns tried hard but received very little ball, but almost every Cowbore contributed to a massive error count. To compound matters, most of these dropped balls or penalties whilst in possession (yes, I'm looking at you Luke "Slapper" O'Donnell) occurred near the Tigers' line.
The Cowbores dominated possession for much of the game, but scored only two tries altogether, then allowed the injury-hit Tigers to score with relative ease. Even when the Tigers were one man down in the aftermath of Slapper's stupid act, the Cowbores failed to trouble the scorer and surrendered meekly. Liam Fulton's re-enactment of Brett Kenny's match-sealing 1981 Grand Final try ended a miserable night for the Cowbores. They are the 2007 preliminary finalist with the most work to do.
Melbourne lost their first game at Olympic Park since late 2006 (and only the 12th time in 149 games in the team's history where they've lost while conceding less than 20 points) on Sunday afternoon. While they've had to endure a similar number of player losses as Manly, the players Melbourne lost during the off-season were not as important and their replacements are of a better quality (compared to Manly's).
Instead, Melbourne's problems are with injuries and with the aforementioned problem of sustaining a dominant performance becoming more difficult with each year in the parity-obsessed NRL. Cronulla gave the Storm their best shot - both figuratively (with the ball) and literally (with some hard-hitting defence) - and shocked the Storm to lead 14-0 early on.
Melbourne managed to come back to level the scores, but couldn't finish the job. Their composure and ability to win the close games - so good in 2006 and 2007 - faltered here. They failed to execute in a number of easy field-goal situations, whereas Cronulla - the close-game loss kings of 2007 - converted a field goal on their first attempt.
The very high level in intensity for much of this game - in addition to the almost-certain suspension of Brett White for his taking the law into his own hands (or fists) - could impact upon Melbourne over the next few weeks, but as they recover and get players such as Inglis, Crocker and Kaufusi back, they should be fine.
Of the 2007 preliminary finalists, Parramatta would feel the best at present. They are slow starters and usually capitulate under pressure, but their comeback win over the Bulldogs and a promising effort (despite what the scoreboard said) against the Warriors on Sunday are good signs for the year ahead.
They were without Nathan Hindmarsh on Sunday. A poor performance usually follows any announcement of his absence, but the team largely played well. Their main fault was a number of errors or plays giving the Warriors extra possession, usually in good field position, but most of these were the result of bad luck or good Warriors play.
In just his 2nd game at 5/8th, Feleti Mateo directed traffic, set up a try, came close to setting up several others, kicked well and looked like a veteran in the halves, while Jarryd Hayne had an excellent first game of the season. Some of the ball movement and athleticism (following very quick play-the-balls) was almost scary, but the Warriors are a difficult prospect in Auckland on a sunny Sunday afternoon. As Parramatta get their injured players back and move towards better and more consistent play, a successful season beckons.
The same can probably be said for the Roosters and Brisbane, traditional Good Friday night combatants. While the Roosters easily accounted for Souths last week, Brisbane was unlikely to be similarly swept aside. The Roosters' size and strength won the first half but they were a touch unlucky not to be further than 6 points in front, while Braith Anasta's unfortunate stumble in Karmichael Hunt's shoulder significantly reduced his impact on the remainder of the game.
But it was Brisbane's composure, structure and excellent gameplan which saw them control the second half. In contrast, the Roosters were put off by an opponent who didn't submit to their power: they appeared not to have a fall-back option in attack. Their effort was gallant, but they played as if they were far more than just 6 points behind. Brisbane skilfully utilised their quick players, to tire the Roosters' huge forward pack whilst gaining metres, then used their bigger men selectively. This was topped off by an excellent kicking game and general display of leadership from Peter Wallace.
In contrast, South Sydney and the Bulldogs served up a tight but poor-quality game across town on Friday night. These two teams look set for a difficult early 2008, although for quite different reasons. Souths dominated most of the first half but only had 12 points to show for it. Matt Utai's late try cut the lead to 6, but his injury-induced exit from the game eliminated an avenue for South Sydney points (his sternum injury made his usual weakness under the high ball an outright liability).
The Bulldogs' comeback continued, but it was hardly award-winning attack. However, the ongoing absence of Souths' solid 2007 defence (although Souths' unusual interchange pattern may have had something to do with this) saw the Bulldogs catch then overtake Souths, but any time Souths attacked, they looked a chance against the immobile Bulldogs' defence. The Dogs held on, summoning their experience, but it was an unconvincing game all round.
Luckily for these two teams, Penrith and Canberra were far worse in the early Saturday game. These two teams, on their day, are capable of far more than Souths or the Bulldogs, but the incredible amount of inconsistency, poor play and mistakes... Penrith played roughly 20 minutes of solid rugby league in this game and probably should have led 22-12 at the end of it. Brash youngster Jarrod Sammut continued the impressive start to his NRL career, this time at half-back, driving the Panthers' attack.
Two bone-headed plays by Paul Aiton cost Penrith Sammut's excellent try and a late penalty, so a 10-point lead was instead just a 2-point lead. But the 2nd half...it was bone-headed plays galore. Penrith rarely ventured out of their own half due to self-induced mistakes, while Canberra could only convert this glut of quality field position into one try. The slippery conditions and more Canberra injuries contributed somewhat to this mess of a game, but most players involved should deny involvement in this game if ever questioned about it.
Further embarrassment was heaped upon Penrith and Canberra players after the Dragons and Titans played in far worse conditions on Monday night but recorded far fewer mistakes. But surely the greatest shock of the night was the Dragons playing at a level nearing their potential for much of this game. For once, their gameplan was mostly executed, their plays were run well (especially in their kicking game) and it was the opponent who was ill-disciplined and gave away silly penalties.
While this rare display of excellent play from the Dragons will provide immediate satisfaction for supporters, job security for coach Nathan Brown and a basis for future weeks, in reality this is the NRL's version of the poisoned chalice. Despite ever-increasing resources being devoted to improving the level of play around the league, the number of teams exhibiting sustained consistent play remains roughly the same and is being pressured by the feasible but low salary cap, the continued growth in the speed and intensity of the game (and the impact of these on premature career ends) and the relative attractiveness of England and Rugby Union.
On those rare occasions when a highly talented but mentally unstable team (the best examples of which are the Dragons, Panthers, Warriors and, to a lesser extent, Parramatta, but almost all teams bar Melbourne and Brisbane suffer from this phenomenon at some point) performs near its best, this only leads to frustration when subsequent displays are not near this level. Frustration from players, supporters, administrators, but most importantly tipsters. There are many tipsters hurting badly after Round 2, as their visions of highly rated teams performing well were almost all not realised.
How difficult can it be to tip in recent years? Despite winning the wooden spoon last year and being thrashed in Round 1, Penrith's loss on Saturday night made it TEN consecutive games (back to late 2006) where they've lost despite favouritism with the bookies.
Frustration is more evident amongst the 2007 preliminary finalists than it has been for some time, but their fortunes should improve from here. North Queensland are in the worst position amongst the four: their trip to Suncorp Stadium on Friday could even be a season-determining game. Stay tuned...
Monday, 24 March 2008
What's wrong with (insert name of 2007 preliminary finalist)?
Monday, 17 March 2008
Round 1: New Season, New Players, Same Old Issues
While Round 1 of the 2008 NRL season provided us with some examples of teams who clearly put their off-season to good use, or teams with a solid and well established structure who continue to perform at a high level, more teams seemed further away than ever from overcoming significant barriers to any form of success.
The worst offender here - which shouldn't have come as a surprise to anyone familiar with early-season play since the turn of the millennium - was the St. George Illawarra Dragons.
Some Dragons' supporters pay scant attention to their team's form before Round 5 or 6 in any given season, such is their tendency to start slowly.
But their slow starts were less of an issue when they had a higher quality playing roster and better depth. The 2008 Dragons appears to be a shadow of previous Dragons' sides, but judging from Sunday's largely inept display against the Tigers, they seem to be at least a match when it comes to bone-headed play.
Mistakes were seen on both sides of the ball and throughout much of the game, giving the Tigers a significant advantage in possession, which was converted into field position and then points.
While the Tigers had the edge in quickness and ball skills in most positions (which they used to attack the size advantage of the Dragons), they showed little ability to cope with the Dragons' size during any sustained Dragons' attacking period. Fortunately for the Tigers, the Dragons' generally poor play and poor decision-making with the ball meant their patchy defence was asked few difficult questions.
Still.. the Dragons lost by just 8 points. It was an incredibly frustrating afternoon for new and old Dragons alike, as this photo of Trent Barrett as he was watching the game shows.
But it was hardly a day of celebration for the Tigers. While they did well to win despite losing Benji Marshall very early on, there was plenty of room for improvement, especially on the defensive end.
Another much-maligned team from 2007 - the Penrith Panthers - also took the field on Sunday afternoon. While the Dragons went with largely the same team from last season, Penrith made some major signings, aimed mostly at filling their rather large gulf in the areas of experience and on-field leadership. Therefore, they would have expected to be competitive with Brisbane.
While the final 48-12 scoreline in Brisbane's favour would suggest a black day for Penrith, they were very much in the game for most of the first half. A try incorrectly awarded to Brisbane's Ben Hannant (clearly offside) and an intercept return just before half time made the margin a somewhat unrepresentative 16 points to Brisbane at the half. Most teams would have surrendered to persistent Brisbane pressure like the Panthers did in the second half.
However, Penrith's tendency to concede unnecessary and ill-timed penalties - a feature of their 2007 season - was back in this game, as was their historical penchant for letting good players sign elsewhere during periods of little success.
Facing up to Penrith on Sunday afternoon was Peter Wallace, a young halfback who was very impressive for Brisbane, but also showed significant potential for Penrith in previous years. Letting Wallace and Craig Gower leave and signing only Joe Williams to replace them could ruin Penrith's season, much like allowing Brad Drew to leave in 2000 (he went on to play a pivotal role in Parramatta's attacking juggernaut in 2001) helped to consign Penrith to several years in the NRL wilderness in the early 2000s.
That said, Penrith won a premiership in 2003 and there is talk of some highly talented halves still to emerge through the junior ranks for the Panthers.
But Brisbane are surely very happy to have signed such a potentially great halfback to play next to the best five-eighth in the game and in one of the best systems in the NRL. Brisbane has always felt much wrath from supporters of other teams due to the near-monopoly they have for any players wanting to play in Qld, as well as consistent suspicions of salary cap cheating. But these feelings have eased somewhat, as other clubs have shared in top-shelf Qld talent and salary cap concerns saw a host of star players leave at the end of last season.
Despite these departures, as well as the return from injury of Darren Lockyer, the new-look Broncos played as though they had been together for many years. They may not have the depth or the quality to win the competition this year, but could 2008 finally be the year Wayne Bennett's setup in Brisbane gets the respect it deserves?
The emergence of the Cowbores and the (re)introduction of a team on the Gold Coast have played a major role in reducing the influence of the Broncos in Qld: these teams squared off in an entertaining game on Friday night. The shock return from injury of Feral Thurston saw the Cowbores almost move into favouritism for this game, but their still-patchy defence and over-reliance on Thurston for attacking spark meant they were always struggling in this game. Their porous defence from last season was seen again in this game, despite the return of their usually strong defensive back-rowers (O'Donnell and Southern).
But the Cowbores would have beaten a fair number of NRL teams with their display here: they were unfortunate to run into a Titans team close to the top of their game. The Titans were very impressive in their debut match last season and were even better in this game. Scott Prince gave Tigers' fans more 'What might have been' with a brilliant game (we can only hope the traitor's wife is happy), while the seemingly tireless Luke Bailey must be relishing every day since he left the Dragons.
While the Titans and Cowbores provided an entertaining and high-quality game, the same couldn't be said for the first game on Friday night, where the Roosters took on traditional rivals Souths. This loomed as a potentially very interesting game, with the size, size and more size of the Roosters against the defensive grit and speed of Souths. The new interchange rules and a humid night figured to give Souths an edge in the latter minutes of both halves as long as they could absorb what was bound to be an onslaught from the Roosters.
Instead the game was largely a non-event. We'll never know if Souths' lack of resistance was significantly influenced by Craig Wing's injury. Whatever the cause, the stingy Souths' defence of 2007 was a distant memory. The Roosters' forwards and some nice attacking options were impressive, but their match-winning lead came far too easy.
On Saturday afternoon, also at Homebush, Bulldogs' supporters were probably thinking their 20-nil lead over Parramatta was a match-winning one and that it came quite easily. It seemed Parramatta's bad habit from 2007 of taking lowly rated teams far too easily was back again. While Parramatta always seem capable, their 2nd half efforts after poor first halves in 2007 suggested a sizeable Bulldogs' victory looked the only outcome in this one.
Instead, this was a landmark game for Parramatta. They didn't panic and try to catch up the 20-point deficit straight away. They built slowly, completing their sets and getting the edge in field position. They then attacked the short Bulldogs' wingers and crept back into the game. The large Bulldogs' forward pack tired as Parramatta came back into the game, creating more opportunities.
A stalemate was reached as Parramatta came to within 2 points of the Bulldogs, but the next try was always going to be enough and a fortuitous Mateo try sealed the win in the last minute.
It was difficult to fault the Bulldogs: they don't appear to have the talent or the mobility in the forwards to contend with a lot of teams this season, but Steve Folkes probably erred somewhat in keeping Michael Sullivan on the bench for so long. Folkes probably thought they didn't need points, they needed Corey Hughes' leadership and defence at 20-nil up. But Sullivan's speed could well have taken the Bulldogs' lead to an unapproachable level.
It appeared as though Newcastle was about to suffer the same fate as the Bulldogs in the late Saturday game. Their solid lead over the gritty (but injury-hit.. for yet another season it seems) Raiders was evaporating quickly late in the game. While the Knights are now a significantly different team than they were when Brian Smith first took over as coach, they still seem to possess an ability to grind out wins at home. It is only Round 1 of course, but these 2 teams look set for tough seasons.
The same cannot be said for the remaining four teams. Manly and Cronulla look set for positive seasons, although it appears Manly may have to follow Cronulla's low-scoring path to victory more often than they have in previous years. The departure of Michael Monaghan and Travis Burns means Matt Orford is now responsible for creating most of Manly's attacking options. The foundation of Manly's success in recent years has been their relentless intensity, but their versatility in also being able to compete (and more often than not win) in high-scoring contests took them to a grand-final last season. They may get back there this season, but unless they can unearth someone to take the pressure off Matt Orford, scores like 16-10 may become much more common for Manly.
Cronulla could probably also use a Michael Monaghan. They are clearly capable at winning the low-scoring grind, but it is extremely difficult to bring this level of defensive intensity each week. They need to find some points for those games where the intensity is not quite there: Cronulla surely doesn't need any more reminding of their lengthy losing streak last season, when teams more or less matched their intensity, but had a few more points in them. Still, it looks like if Cronulla can have more luck with injuries, they should have a much better year than in 2007.
It took 5 years into Craig Bellamy's reign as coach of the Melbourne Storm, but in 2007, they finally figured out how to channel their intensity to win games when they needed to. They never really had Cronulla's point-scoring problems, but they did struggle when teams matched their intensity (usually folding like deckchairs) then they discovered they just couldn't maintain their intensity all season long (in 2006).
But now, despite the salary-cap induced departures of a number of key players as well as some significant players missing through injury, they've rarely looked better. Not so much in their play against the Warriors (they let the Warriors back into the game late in the first half) but that their team structure is stronger than ever. Each of the new/young players for Melbourne in last night's game clearly knew his role and performed strongly.
In the end, Melbourne won well. After an impressive first half in the heat, the Warriors made life significantly easier for Melbourne in the second half: 3 kickoffs soaring across the dead-ball line is truly Scarecrow-ish play. The Warriors' predicament was perhaps best exemplified by winger Manu "Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde" Vatuvei. When he is asked by the opposition to perform complex tasks such as catching, he is often made to look foolish, but with ball in hand and momentum increasing, there is perhaps not a scarier sight for a defender.
This combination of awesome potential and a tendency for the most basic of mistakes would make Vatuvei feel right at home outside Gasnier (or maybe Cooper)...
